Using Data to Inform Evidence-Based Decision Making. January 8, 2013

Transcription

1 Using Data to Inform Evidence-Based Decision Making January 8,

2 New York State Criminal Justice System 500 local police agencies arrest 600,000 annually. 62 locally elected county district attorneys prosecute arrests. 58 jail systems (57 counties + NYC) house 30,000 inmates: detainees and those sentenced to 1 year or less. Probation is county run, supervise 115,000. One agency now oversees prison (54,000 inmates) and parole (36,000 parolees). Strong network of alternative to incarceration and re-entry providers, especially in NYC. 2

3 New York State Criminal Justice Agencies Department of Corrections and Community Supervision (DOCCS) 29,000 staff. New York State Police (NYSP) 5,300 staff. Division of Criminal Justice Services (DCJS) 550 staff. Office of Victim Services (OVS) 67 staff State Commission of Correction (SCOC) 25 staff. Office for the Prevention of Domestic Violence (OPDV) 20 staff. 3

4 Division of Criminal Justice Services Arrest/fingerprint processing and criminal history repository. Oversee Operation IMPACT; crime analysis centers, training, technical assistance and law enforcement standards. Sex Offender Registry and Forensic Services (DNA). State Administering Agency (SAA) - Byrne/JAG local assistance grant funding. Statistical Analysis Center (SAC) Criminal Justice Research and Statistics Uniform Crime Reporting program Public Safety Performance Management Analytical files from DOCCS, courts, and others 4

5 PUBLIC SAFETY IN NEW YORK PREVENT, REDUCE and RESPOND TO CRIME and FATALITIES ANTICIPATE, PREVENT and RESPOND TO EMERGENCIES and DISASTERS PUBLIC SAFETY GOALS Reduce Crime Reduce Unnecessary Confinement Reduce Reoffending Maintain Readiness and Improve Emergency Response NEW YORK STATE CRIME BROAD PUBLIC SAFETY INDICATORS OFFENDER POPULATIONS OFFENDER RECIDIVISM EMERGENCY PREPAREDNESS 5

6 Part I: Crime Reduction and Prevention 1) Annual Measures Crime rates Arrest to Crime Ratio 2) Using Data in Operation IMPACT State Requirements 3)Performance Measure Examples - Operation IMPACT violent crime and shooting activity - DNA Collection Rates 6

7 6,900 6,400 5,900 5,400 4,900 4,400 3,900 3,400 2,900 2,400 1,900 NYS vs. Rest of U.S Index Crime Rates NYS vs. Rest of U.S Index Crime Rates Rest of U.S. Rest of US (-43%) New York (-64%) New York State 7

8 2011 Index Crime Rates New York Pennsylvania California Illinois USA Total Ohio Texas Florida 2,311 2,577 2,995 3,118 3,295 3,662 3,881 4,037 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 Source: FBI, Crime in the United States, 2011 Includes only large states (population of 10 million or more) 8

9 For Every UCR Crime Reported, More Arrests are Occurring Than in the Past VIOLENT CRIME 94,597 77,126 VIOLENT ARRESTS Violent Felony Arrests 38,717 34,171 Violent Misdemeanor Arrests 7,579 7,156 Total 46,296 41,327 As % of Violent Crime 48.9% 53.6% PROPERTY CRIME 444, ,704 PROPERTY ARRESTS Property Felony Arrests 27,233 27,453 Property Misdemeanor Arrests 44,161 62,450 Total 71,394 89,903 As % of Property Crime 16.1% 24.4% 9

10 Operation IMPACT Crime Reduction Program $13 million funds 17 counties which report 80% of crime outside NYC. Jurisdictions must use data driven strategies to reduce and prevent crime. Grants support crime analysts at each site. Specialized crime analysis centers in four counties. Data is shared among centers and with state s Fusion center. 63% of crime and incidents outside of NYC can be searched with a single query. 10

11 Grantee Using Data in Operation IMPACT IMPACT grantees required to hold monthly meetings w/partners: review crime trends and strategy. Grantees must attend State deliberation meeting where strategy, status, partnership, and challenges are presented. Sites required to report monthly data to DCJS, and data is monitored closely and widely distributed. State DCJS analyzes crime trends for the 17 jurisdictions and selects crimes of focus. Competitive Request for Application (RFA) considers crime volume, rates and quality of proposal. 11

12 Rochester and Buffalo Reported 56% of IMPACT Shootings So Far This Year 9 Other IMPACT PDs 56 9% Newburgh 29 5% Jan. - Oct Shooting Incidents Involving Injury IMPACT Total = 635 Schenectady 20 3% Buffalo % Nassau County PD 34 5% Albany 25 4% Rochester % Suffolk County PD 43 7% Syracuse 70 11% All Other IMPACT includes: Niagara Falls (15), Troy (11), Poughkeepsie (9), Yonkers (8), Utica (7), Binghamton (4), Kingston (1), Spring Valley (1) and Jamestown (0). 12

13 UCR Monthly Report: 17 IMPACT Sites Summary Jan - Oct Year Avg YTD 2011 YTD 2012 YTD % Change 11 vs Yr. Avg vs Violent Crime 13,821 12,846 13, % -2.8% Firearm-Related Violent Crime 3,183 2,920 3, % -5.4% SHOOTING INCIDENTS Incidents % -3.3% Victims % 0.0% Individuals Killed % -9.0% FIREARM ARRESTS 1,584 1, % 13

14 IMPACT Shooting Incidents Up (+7%) YTD Due to January, May, and August Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year Avg

15 UCR Monthly Report: Buffalo City PD Jan - Oct Year Avg YTD 2011 YTD 2012 YTD % Change 11 vs Yr. Avg vs Violent Crime 3,324 2,962 2, % -12.9% Firearm-Related Violent Crime % -9.6% SHOOTING INCIDENTS Incidents % 1.4% Victims % 9.2% Individuals Killed % -4.5% FIREARM ARRESTS % 15

16 Buffalo Shooting Incidents Did Not Increase this Summer Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year Avg

17 Forensics Preventing and Solving Crime with DNA Technology New York State requires DNA samples for individuals convicted of felony and misdemeanor crimes. Eligibility expanded several times, with most recent expansion August Conviction data matched with DNA submission records to calculate collection rates and provide missed collection lists to jails and probation departments. 17

18 DNA Submission Increase from the Latest DNA Expansion 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 - Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2012 Submissions 3,916 3,425 4,158 3,801 3,961 3,771 3,302 5,223 4,821 5,756 4, Submissions 3,033 3,354 4,095 3,577 3,945 3,578 3,649 3,534 3,100 3,629 3,343 3,227 18

19 DNA Local Collection Rates Have Increased Due to Reporting & DCJS Follow-up DNA Submissions by Sentence Type 100% 90% 80% 70% 92% 82% 95% 91% 77% 60% 50% 62% Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Jail Sentences Probation Sentences Other 19

20 DNA Collection Rate Report - Sample Page Missed List is on Secure Website 20

21 Hits Against DNA Databank - Investigative Leads Primarily Burglary and Sexual Assault Hits Against the Databank by Crime Type November Cumulative Crime Type Hits % Hits % Burglary 42 38% 4,049 34% Sexual Assault 29 26% 3,848 33% Robbery 11 10% 1,342 11% Homicide 6 5% 968 8% Larceny 8 7% 520 4% Assault 2 2% 411 3% Motor Vehicle Theft 2 2% 144 1% Crim Mischief 2 2% 136 1% Other 8 7% 396 3% Total % 11, % 21

22 Part II: Reducing Unnecessary Confinement and Recidivism While Trends to Date Reducing Crime Implementing Results First Business Model: Targeting Populations Effectively Quality Assurance (Fidelity) Evaluation 22

23 2011 Imprisonment Rates New York Illinois California Pennsylvania Ohio USA Total Florida Texas Source: Prisoners in 2011, U.S. Department of Justice, Office of Justice Programs, Bureau of Statistics Includes only large states (population of 10 million or more) 23

24 New York State Prison Population Has Declined Dramatically 80,000 70,000 60,000 68,489 70,154 62,732 56,315 54,243 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10, Source: NYS DOCCS 24

25 Decline Due to Huge Drop in Drug Offenders Under Custody 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 23,345 21,144 14,249 10,000 5,000 8,724 6, Source: NYS DOCCS 25

26 Results First Cost Benefit Project Cost Benefit initiative used to prepare criminal justice investment advice for policy makers. Created by Washington State in the mid s, currently being implemented by numerous other states. Estimates impact of criminal justice programming or sentencing changes on public safety (crime and confinement). 26

27 Results First Cost Benefit Project Used to help predict which programs will achieve the best results at the lowest cost. Good fit for New York: Strong support from Governor s office. Comprehensive criminal justice data. Strong research capability. Will add a consistent, formal cost benefit methodology. 27

28 Having a Technical Cost-Benefit Model is Meaningless Without: 1) Targeting Programming targeted to right person through risk and needs assessment. 2) Quality Assurance Ensure funded programs operate with fidelity. 3) Evaluation Annual outcome studies of recidivism and other expected program results. 28

29 70% 60% Time to Reconviction Felons: Prison Releases by Risk Level 55% 63% 69% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 41% 43% 38% 30% 21% 20% 17% 15% 9% 11% 6% 2% Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 High Risk Moderate Risk Low Risk N = 2006 Releasees with a Risk 29

30 Offender Risk Influences Program Outcomes Preliminary review of employment programs showed largest gains on riskiest offenders. Moderate and high risk offenders showed the largest differences in arrest/violation rates of participants compared to nonparticipants. The employment programs made little difference for low risk participants. Reserve expensive slots and intensive programming for high risk offenders. 30

31 One Year Arrest and Violation Rates for Employment Program Participants by Risk Level 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% LOW RISK: 5 Percentage Point Difference 18% 2% 8% 16% 15% Participants N=389 23% Non-Participants N=6,229 34% 4% 30% Participants N=384 48% 11% 37% Non-Participants N=5,988 HIGH RISK: 21 Percentage Point Difference 53% 7% 46% Participants N=498 Low Moderate High Low Moderate High 74% 12% 62% Non-Participants N=11,258 Arrest No Arrest but Violation 31

32 Strengthening Community Sentences and Alternative Programs Most sentenced offenders receive sentences to jail or probation (not prison). Drug courts, other problem solving courts, and alternative to incarceration programs widely used in New York. Recidivism rates are high, especially for younger offenders. Results First Business Model will add more precision to our funding efforts. 32

33 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Time to Reconviction Felons: Jail and Probation Sentences 27% 22% 11% 6% 43% 34% 22% 11% 55% 41% 30% 15% 61% 45% 36% 18% 65% 48% 40% 20% 0% Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Jail Under 25 Jail 25 and Over Probation Under 25 Probation 25 and Over

34 Reconviction Activity for Year Old Felons and Misdemeanants Sentenced to Jail 80% 70% 60% 50% 48% 58% 55% 65% 61% 70% 67% 40% 30% 20% 10% 26% 15% 41% 0% Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Misdemeanor Felony

35 Results First Next Steps: Strengthen Alternative to Incarceration Network Identify regions with need, populations to be targeted, and program models to be considered. Maximize ROI, but craft a Balanced Portfolio. Require Risk and Needs Assessment for all program entrants (centralized system available to grantees). Require grantees to report case specific data. Analyze case data to confirm risk of those served, and conduct recidivism studies (controlling for risk). Use results to inform future funding decisions. 35

36 An Ongoing Fidelity Component is Essential to Achieve Expected Outcomes Dedicate a small percentage of contract dollars to quality assurance. Don t waste expensive programs on individuals who do not need it, or who are not likely to be positively impacted. If the wrong people are targeted, there may be no impact, or even a negative impact. Program evaluations (recidivism studies) will be conducted by DCJS staff to confirm expected results are achieved. Discontinue programs with poor results. 36

37 Proposed Business Model Analyze Population and Program Needs Recommend Programming Through Cost Benefit Analysis Implement Programming Verify Program Quality (Fidelity) Evaluate Program Outcomes Confirm Results are as Expected Use Results to Inform Future Funding Decisions 37

38 Thank You 38