KEY ELEMENTS TO DESIGN AN EXTERNAL ACTIVE MANAGEMENT PROGRAM. Alejandro C. Reveiz H. Director, Quantitative Solutions, SAA & Analytics (QSA)

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download "KEY ELEMENTS TO DESIGN AN EXTERNAL ACTIVE MANAGEMENT PROGRAM. Alejandro C. Reveiz H. Director, Quantitative Solutions, SAA & Analytics (QSA)"

Antonia Snow
10 years ago
Views:

1 KEY ELEMENTS TO DESIGN AN EXTERNAL ACTIVE MANAGEMENT PROGRAM Alejandro C. Reveiz H. Director, Quantitative Solutions, SAA & Analytics (QSA) October 1, 2015

Table of Contents Design guidelines in such a way that facilitates diversification across style, geography and philosophy Are alphas orthogonal to benchmark?

2 Table of Contents Design guidelines in such a way that facilitates diversification across style, geography and philosophy Are alphas orthogonal to benchmark? What is the potential aggregate information ratio from a set of managers without skills? Reality of the managers skill distribution Quantification of sponsor skills in selecting managers Building optimal portfolio of managers Construct incentive structure that rewards appropriate level of risk taking 1

3 How to design guidelines in such way that facilitate diversification across style, geography and philosophy? Example: Traditional vs. Risk-based Asset Managers Asset Rotation (US) vs. Macro Based (UK, FX and Interest rate outright bets) 2

4 Given a given set of guidelines, what is the potential return and aggregate information ratio for a manager (e.g. structural alpha) without taking into account skills? Are the corresponding excess returns orthogonal to my benchmark returns? Mapping of guidelines to: Assets Risk factors Factor portfolios 3

1. Randomly construct portfolios based on investment guidelines, credit risk limits, soft limits (portfolio manager style), and operational constraints; 2.

5 1. Randomly construct portfolios based on investment guidelines, credit risk limits, soft limits (portfolio manager style), and operational constraints; 2. Apply historical sampling techniques / Monte Carlo Excess Return Tracking Error 39bps 53bps Information Ratio 1.01 Maximum TE of guidelines: 60bps Correlation of ER to Benchmark 0.13 Diversification benefit from correlation structure vs stressed environment 4

6 The reality of the manager s skill distribution: Statistical analysis on historical data can help identify skilled asset managers 5

7 But studies estimate probability of past winners remaining winners in a 10y period is about 60% 6

8 Quantify my sponsor skills in selecting managers (that have skills at picking securities and investment strategies). Need for the sponsor of assessing ex-ante the expected alpha of the manager Due Diligence: Business & Organization Risk Management Process Business Staff Portfolio Risk Factors Risk Measures Monitoring Action Infrastructure Investment Process Operational Due Diligence Experience + Edge Sources of Risk + Return Trading Market Manager Themes Trades Portfolio P & L Cash Portfolio Opportunity Set Idea Generation Portfolio Construction Trading NAV Pricing Understanding the philosophy and style of the asset managers Self assessment of the sponsor Source: World Bank Treasury 7

9 Building an optimal portfolio of managers What is the tradeoff between the number of managers and the level of active risk within an asset class (diversification benefits diminish after holdings)? What is the impact on the information ratio at the asset class level of adding managers (searching for complementarity)? What are the rules for the turn-over of the portfolio of managers? 8

10 Construct incentive structure that rewards appropriate level of risk taking and takes into account implied Beta/structural alpha. Maximum tracking Error Estimated operational costs of the manager Guidelines potential 9

Portfolio Management for institutional investors

Portfolio Management for institutional investors June, 2010 Bogdan Bilaus, CFA CFA Romania Summary Portfolio management - definitions; The process; Investment Policy Statement IPS; Strategic Asset Allocation