Investigating Effective Factors on Relevancy of Net Income

Transcription

1 ISSN: Year: 2013 Volume: 01 Issue: 13 Pages: Investigating Effective Factors on Relevancy of Net Income Ghodratollah Barzegar 1, Aliakbar Ramezani 2, Saeed Valinataj 3 1. Member of the faculty, Department of Accounting, Mazandaran Universy, Babolsar, Iran 2. Department of Accounting, Qaemshahr Branch, Islamic Azad Universy, Qaemshahr, Iran 3. MA Student, Department of Accounting, Universy College of Rouzbahan, Sari, Iran ABSTRACT This research is empirically investigated relevancy of accounting net income value wh return of firms stock market in Tehran stock exchange. Recent done research in newfound markets is stimulus of this research. First, relevancy of net income value is examined based on panel data regression and simple return model wh using sample include from firms accepted at Tehran stock exchange during 2006 till 2011 which s data are available. Then, we deal wh 3 questions about relevancy of income. First, according to available inflation in Iran, we check that has this inflation effect on relevancy of net income? Second, we examine impact of firm size (measured by common logarhm of firm market value) on relevancy of net income. Finally, we investigate impact of firms income continuy on relevancy of net income wh using a ratio (ratio of operational revenue to revenue before tax). Results show that net income relevancy level in Iran is higher than level reported by done research in most of mature markets. Available inflation in research period cause decreasing in net income relevancy. Whereas, net income in big and small companies has significant relationship wh stock market return, investors will give more value to big companies income than small companies income. Finally, we find that investors in Tehran stock exchange don t distinguish between income of firms which have less durable components and firms which have more durable components; and are just mentioned final amount. KEYWORDS: net income, value relevancy, inflation, firm size, earnings persistence.

2 Investigating Effective Factors on Relevancy of Net Income by Ghodratollah Barzegar et. al. 14 Introduction Providing and representing useful information for investment decision making and accreded are as one of purposes of accounting and financial reporting. Useful information is information that has qualative features. These features are relevancy and reliabily. Relevancy means that accounting information can make difference in decisions (financial accounting standard board, 1980). There are countless researches about relevancy of accounting data value which define as abily of accounting statistics in entering and purification of information that has effect on firm value (Hang, 2001). Relevancy of value tradionally use as synonym word for more correlation wh market data: accounting data which have more correlation wh prices or markets return, are seen as more relevant data. Financial statement among income statement and accounting statistics proposed in are final product of accounting process. One of statistics represented in income statement is net income. Income is one of most basic ems of financial statement which remember as crerion for evaluating continuy, efficiency and revision in firms representatives contracts and still guidance for predicting, decision making and investment. Income as one of most important ems of financial statement has attracted much attention to self and many researches that are done about different aspect of show s great materialy. Lerature Research Early efforts for investigating relevancy of accounting information value were done by Ball and Brown (1968). They represented evidences from relevancy of stock unexpected earnings to abnormal returns of stock. After Ball and Brown, countless researches were done about usefulness of accounting information in USA. Some of them represented evidences from relevancy of accounting earnings (Collins and Kothari, 1989; Kothari and Zimmerman, 1995). While, others expressed wh considering this assumption that size of assets and debts mention results of future activies, stock price depend on book value of firm assets (like Barth, 1991). In this research, models based on income and models based on book values typically observed as alternative approaches for evaluating models (like Barth and Landsman, 1995). Yet, next researches argued that in more realistic market wh incomplete markets accounting systems can provide information about incomes and book values which can be supplement components of capal value (Felltham and Olsen, 1995; Olsen, 1995; Penman, 1998; Chang, 1999). For example, Felltham and Olsen (1995) and Olsen (1995) expressed that value of firm can be expressed as linear function of book value, income and other related data. Wh using return volatile and compatibily value concepts, Burgstahler and Dichev (1997) expressly argued that book value basically provide value of firm net resources based on historical cost and is largely independent of using s resources in current period. Against, incomes provide amount of value that show results of using firm current resources. Then, a multivariable evaluating model preferred to one variable model. After Ball and Brown (1968) accounting researchers has represented countless papers that were documented dependence between accounting incomes and stock returns. Then, researches about relevancy of accounting information were extended till included assets size and earnings size wh using Olsen model (1995). While, early researches focus on USA markets, next researches because of increasingly confirming on role of accounting information on global markets has investigated relevancy of accounting information value at all markets except USA markets (like Alford et al., 1993; Amir et al., 1993; Harris et al., 1994; Barth and Clinch, 1996; Chen and Sou, 1996; Graham and King, 1998). Sajadi (1998) investigated factors related to unexpected earnings and s relationship wh stock price. Results obtained from 70 studied firms during 73 till 75 showed that there is

3 Investigating Effective Factors on Relevancy of Net Income by Ghodratollah Barzegar et. al. 15 significant relationship between unexpected changes of income and abnormal changes in stock return that indicate relevancy of net income. Ali Panahi (2001) studied relationship between changes of income statement elements wh stock return changes of 53 firms accepted at Tehran stock exchange during 72 till 77. According obtained so weak correlation coefficient between net income changes and stock return changes and rejecting hypotheses in 4 years of research period, he concluded that there isn t significant relationship between net income changes and stock return changes. In other word, net income isn t relevant wh stock return. Foladi (2003) mentioned relationship between changes in income statement elements and stock price changes during Results showed that at more than %60 of firms, there is significant relationship between net income changes and stock price changes that indicate relevancy of net income wh stock price. Pourheidari and Kohansal (2005) investigated relationship between income and stock return according to firms attributes (such as size). Results of this research showed net income is relevant about stock return and that incomes are more relevant in big firms than small firms. At latest researches, Valipour et al. (2010) investigated relevancy of earnings elements and levels to market value for firms accepted at Tehran stock exchange during Results represented that all of elements and levels of reported income such as net income, consider as more relevant information about evaluating firm. Methodology According to topic of this research, can express that this research is applied research from point of purpose and descriptive from point of implanting. It is ex-post research from the point of time and use from past information of sample firms. Research Hypotheses Research hypotheses are provided as follow: H 1 : inflation has significant impact on relationship between net income and stock market return. H 2 : relationship between net income and stock market return is statistically more in big firms than small firms. H 3 : relationship between net income and stock market return in firms wh high earnings sustainabily (earnings qualy) is statistically more than firms wh low earnings sustainabily (earnings qualy). Research Statistical Population Statistical population of this research is firms accepted at Tehran stock exchange during 2006 till All active firms at Tehran stock exchange during 2006 till 2011 is 469 firms which consider as statistical population of this research. But, number of mentioned firms is adjusted by considering condions and limations because data of some firms isn t available and possibily of selecting statistical sample. Finally 99 firms of population are used in research.

4 Investigating Effective Factors on Relevancy of Net Income by Ghodratollah Barzegar et. al. 16 Variables Definion and Testing Hypothesis Methods Representing accurate definion of variables which make easy possibily of measuring mentioned elements of research is first step for testing research hypothesis. Variables are divided to two independent and dependent groups based on role that are responsible in research. Independent or explanatory variables are variables that can show impact of economic decision making in behavioral Research. Independent variables which occasionally named input or stimulus variables are theoretical or experimental reason of changes in purpose. Dependent variables are perceived or possible effect which occasionally named output or answer variable (Azar and Momeni, 2008). Three groups of variable named independent, dependent and control variable are used in this research. Dependent variable is stock return and independent variable is net income. Adjusting variables used in research model is as follow: Inflation (in first hypothesis) Firm size (in first hypothesis) And earnings sustainabily (in first hypothesis) a) Price Model First model for checking income relevancy is as model (1). This model is well known to Olsen model. Olsen (1955) believed that stock return simultaneously depend on income and book value of stock. 1) P EPS BV Variable (p) shows stock price (dependent variable). Market value of sample firms stock is available through Tehran stock exchange se. EPS and BV show earnings per share and equy book value per share (independent variables) respectively. Income per share is measured through ratio of net income to stock number and book value of each share through ratio of equy book value to stock number. Accounting income and stockholder equy is extracted from income statement and balance sheet respectively. According to activy variation and complexy of sample firms, income and book value variables are adjusted and homogenized. For this, income per share and book value per share are divided to stock market value at beginning of period in firm (p t-1 ). b) Return Model Second model for investigating income relevancy is as model (2). 2) R EPS EPS Variable R shows stock return (dependent variable). EPS and EPS represent earnings per share and earnings per share changes (independent variables) respectively. Earnings per share changes are obtained from difference between current year earnings (EPS t ) and last year earnings (EPS t-1 ). For homogenizing, these two variables are divided to stock market value of firm (p t-1 ) at beginning of period. Stock return is measured through following relation:

5 Investigating Effective Factors on Relevancy of Net Income by Ghodratollah Barzegar et. al. 17 R i, t P1 D P0 P 0 Which: R i,t : real return of share i at year t P 1 : stock price at end of year t P 0 : stock price at beginning of year t D: dividend (paid per share) Inflation modulator, firm size and earnings persistence variables are measured as table (1). Table (1): Modulator Variables of Research Variables Symbol Measuring method and collecting source inflation Firm size Earnings sustainabily Infla FSize EPersist This variable is calculated through total index of merchandise and consumer Services cost in Iran urban areas and is extracted from official se of central bank ( It is measured through common logarhm of firm total assets (extracted from balance sheet). It is equal to determinant coefficient obtained from estimating regression model between current and future incomes ( each of sample firm during research period. Earn a a Earn i, t 1 i, t 0 1 e ) for Testing Hypotheses In this research after extracting required information from mentioned resources and preparing variables wh Excel and performing necessary calculations for gaining to required variables for research, for calculating regression model is used from collected data from Eviews software. H 1 : testing impact of inflation on relationship between net income and stock market return (income relevancy). For testing first hypothesis, adjusted determinant coefficient (Adj R 2 ) obtained from models (1) and (2) after and before adjusting effect of inflation index is investigated and compared wh Wang test (1989). H 2 : testing relationship between net income and stock market return in big and small companies. In testing this hypothesis, first observation related sample firms are divided to two big and small companies based on variable firm size (FSize). Firms are separated in this case that firms above average amount of this variable are big firms and firms below average amount of this variable are small firms. Then, models (1) and (2) are estimated at two big and small firms group and finally, adjusted determinant coefficient obtained from (adj R 2 ) model in big and small firms are examined and compared wh Cramer test (1987).

6 Investigating Effective Factors on Relevancy of Net Income by Ghodratollah Barzegar et. al. 18 H 3 : testing relationship between net income and stock market return in firms wh high earnings persistence and low earnings persistence. For testing third hypothesis, first observation related to sample firms based on earnings persistence divide to two groups named firms wh high earnings persistence and low earnings persistence. Then, model (2) and (3) are estimated in two groups of firms wh high earnings persistence and low earnings persistence; finally, adjusted determinant coefficient obtained from estimating (adj R 2 ) model in firms wh high earnings persistence and low earnings persistence are examined and compared by Cramer test (1987). Research Descriptive Statistic In this research, first amount of variables are calculated by using from data and then descriptive statistics of research dependent and independent variables included average, median, fashion, maximum, minimum and standard deviation are calculated and then they are represented at table (2). Mentioned amounts represent overview of suation of research data distribution. Represented results show that average (and standard deviation) of dependent variable in research models meaning stock return is equal to (0.1527). Amount of average show that maximum of data related to this variable are close to 0.21 between sample firms. Amount of standard deviation indicate percentage of data scattering around average. Also, amount of median related to stock return is equal to and this means that half of obtained amount for this variable are less than this amount and other half are more than this amount. Other variables of research are interpretable in the same way. Table (2): descriptive statistic of research dependent and independent variables Variables Symbol Mean Median Maximum Minimum Standard deviation Stock return R Stock market value P Earnings per share EPS Earnings per share changes EPS Book value of each share BV inflation Infla Firm size FSize Earnings persistence Persist

7 Investigating Effective Factors on Relevancy of Net Income by Ghodratollah Barzegar et. al. 19 Table (3): Correlation coefficient between research variables Variables R P EPS EPS BV Infla FSize Persist R 1 P EPS EPS BV Infla FSize Persist Test of Determining Appropriate Model in Panel Data Test of determining research models is done at all of sample firms groups. Bound F (Chow) and Hausman test are used for investigating type of testing model in different periods and sections of panel data. In Chow test, if Chow statistic obtained from test is significant, hypothesis 0 is rejected and fixed effect model is accepted. If mentioned statistic isn t significant, consolidated and integrated data method is used for testing hypothesis. In Hausman test, if Hausman statistic is significant, hypothesis 0 is rejected and fixed effect method is accepted. If mentioned statistic isn t significant, random effect model is used for testing hypothesis. Results of Chow test is represented at table (4). Table (4): Results of Chow test Examined models Chow statistic p-value Test result Model 1: based on price P 0 EPS 1 BV Hausman test Panel data Model 2: based on return R 0 EPS 1 EPS Hausman test Panel data As we see in table (4), results of Chow test in research models don t confirm 0 hypothesis of this test based on having similar intercept at all periods. So, we should use panel model (fixed or random effect) for estimating models in research statistical samples. Hausman test is done for selecting

8 Investigating Effective Factors on Relevancy of Net Income by Ghodratollah Barzegar et. al. 20 appropriate model between random and fixed effect models which results of is observable in table (4-5). Table (5): Results of Hausman test Examined models Hausman statistic P-value Test result Model 1: based on price P 0 EPS 1 Model 2: based on return R 0 EPS 1 BV 2 EPS Random Effect Random Effect Results of Hausman test for both model of research show that 0 hypothesis of this research are confirmed. So, random effect method is more appropriate option for estimating return and price models. Results of Testing Research Hypotheses Summary of testing hypotheses results is observable in table (6). Each of research hypotheses is examined based on two models. First model is based on stock price and second model is based on stock return. Model estimation is done based on random effect method of panel data. Table (6): Summary of testing hypotheses results Number Hypothesis Type of test Model Impact inflation income relevancy of on Impact of firm size on relevancy of net income Impact of earnings persistence on relevancy of net income Random effect Random effect Random effect price return price return price return Wang or Cramer statistic (significant level) (0.0046) (0.0271) (0.1896) (0.0894) (0.0237) (0.1143) Result Confirmed Confirmed Rejected Rejected Confirmed Rejected Results of Testing First Hypothesis As we expressed at part 4, result of Wang test (Static= و p-value=0.0046) in estimating first model show that difference between information content of earnings per share is significant in two estimations. In other word, research first hypothesis is confirmed and can claim that relevancy of

9 Investigating Effective Factors on Relevancy of Net Income by Ghodratollah Barzegar et. al. 21 earnings per share decrease in models based on price wh adding inflation variable. In second model estimation, results of Wang test (Static= و p-value=0.0271) show that difference between information content of earnings per share in %5 error level is significant and second hypothesis of research is confirmed wh using second model and can claim that relevancy of earnings per share in model based on return decrease wh adding inflation variable. So, inflation index decrease relevancy of net income of firms accepted at Tehran stock exchange. Results of testing first hypothesis is same wh results of Bobles et al. (1985), Somme et al. (1989) and Davis et al. (2000) and Kolek and Balteri (2009) researches. But, isn t same wh results of Beaver et al. (1982) and Beaver and Landsman (1983) and Metlasi (1984) researches. Result of Testing Second Hypothesis Result of Cramer test in testing second hypothesis for both model shows that difference between information content of earnings per share in two big and small firms groups isn t significant. In other word, research second hypothesis is rejected and can claim that firm size hasn t significant effect on relevancy of net income in firms accepted at Tehran stock exchange. Against results of this hypothesis, results of Chen et al. (2001); Gernick et al. (2001) and Fillip and Raforinier (2010) researches show that there is significant relationship between firm size and relevancy of accounting information. Reason of mismatching results of this research wh mentioned researchers can be defects of data in Tehran stock exchange. Another reason is that big firms in Tehran stock are often governmental and governmental firms usually haven t necessary performance in reporting like private companies. Although in Iran, Pourheidari and Kohansal (2005) in their research show that relevancy of accounting income is different in big and small companies. Results of Testing Third Hypothesis: Result of Cramer test (Static= and p-value=0.0237) show that difference between information content of earnings per share is significant in two groups of firms wh high earnings persistence and low earnings persistence. In other word, research third hypothesis is confirmed wh first model estimation and can claim that earnings persistence of firm has significant impact on relevancy of net income. But, in second model estimation, results of Cramer test (Static= and p-value=0.1143) show that difference between information content of earnings per share in two groups of firms wh high and low earnings persistence isn t significant. In other word, research third hypothesis wh using second model is rejected. Then, results of third hypothesis is different in estimating first and second model and just wh helping first model can conclude that earnings persistence between firms accepted at Tehran stock exchange decrease relevancy of net income. These results can come from this topic that incomes which repeat at different years were for earnings smoothing by management. Because smoothed earnings cause users aberration and can decrease information content of income. Results of this hypothesis are same wh results of Khoshtinat and Rezaie (2006) research. Research Limations Limations of this research are as follow: A) In the real world, a phenomenon may be influenced by factors and different variables. Some of these factors and variables are known for researchers and he/she can determine impact of these factors on considered phenomenon. But, there are other factors that researchers don t know existence of them or that possibily of determining impact of them on studied dependent variable qualatively. So, researcher, in each

10 Investigating Effective Factors on Relevancy of Net Income by Ghodratollah Barzegar et. al. 22 research, can investigate limed number of these independent variables. About this research, other factors like economic suation, public level of prices and polic condions that is out of researchers access can be effective on research results. B) Number of studied firms decrease to 99 cases because of some selective creria (like financial period end to 12/29, not changing financial period) in selecting firms and also lack of data of some firms. So, generalizing results of this research to other firms should be done warily. C) Because of time limation, present research just include 2006 till 2011 and because of governmental policies and economic problems like downturn, suddenly increasing or decreasing exchange index because of polical news and etc, results of research in each year isn t applicable to all years. References Ali Panahi, K. (2001). Analytical study of the relationship between stock returns wh changes in the prof and loss account ems listed companies in Tehran Stock Exchange. MA Thesis Accounting, Tarbiat Modares Universy. Ball, R., and Brown, P. (1968). An Empirical Evaluation of Accounting Income Numbers. Journal of Accounting and Economics, Vol. 6, pp Barth, M., and Landsman, W. (1995). Fundamental Issues Related to Using Fair Value Vccounting for Financial Reporting. Accounting Horizons, Vol. 9, pp Brown, S., Lo, K., and Lys, T. (1999). Use of R2 in Accounting Research: Measuring Changes in Value Relevance over the Last Four Decades. Journal of Accounting and Economics, Vol. 28, pp Chen, J.P.C., Chen, S., and Su, X. (2001). Is Accounting Information Value-Relevant in the Emerging Chinese Stock Market?. Journal of International Accounting, Auding & Taxation, Vol. 10, pp Feltham, G., and Ohlson, J. (1995). Valuation and Clean Surplus Accounting for Operating and Financial Activies. Contemporary Accounting Research, Vol. 11, pp Foladi, M. (2001). The relationship between changes in income statement ems and changes in constuent stock prices of companies listed in Tehran Stock Exchange. MA Thesis Accounting, Tarbiat Modares Universy. Ohlson, J. (1995). Earnings, Book Value, and Dividends in Secury Valuation. Contemporary Accounting Research, Vol. 11, pp Pourheidari, A., and Kohansal, M. (2005). The relationship between earnings and cash flows and stock returns based on firm-specific characteristics. Accounting Studies, No. 9, Sajadi, H. (1998). Factors associated wh unexpected earnings and s relation to stock price. Auding and Accounting Reviews, No. 24 & 25, pp Valipour, H., Rostami, V., and Shahabi, A. (2010). The relationship of levels and components of reported earnings for predict the value of the company. Management Accounting, No. 7, pp