Financial Planning for East Coast Yachts

Transcription

1 Financial Planning for East Coast Yachts Prepared for East Coast Yachts Prepared by Dan Ervin, Mary-Ann Lawrence, Kevin Klepacki, Katie Wilson, Andrew Wright January 1, 2010

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3 Table of Contents iii Table of Contents Executive Summary... v Introduction... 1 Methods for Evaluating ECY s Growth Potential... 3 Results of Financial Evaluations... 5 Ratio Calculations... 5 Pro Forma Statements Based on the Sustainable Growth Rate... 6 Pro Forma Statements Based on ECY s Desired Growth Rate... 7 Balance Sheet Statement Adjusted for Net Plant and Equipment Investments... 8 Analysis... 9 Analysis for the Sustainable Growth Rate... 9 Analysis for the 20% Growth Rate Recommendations Reduce the Planned Growth Rate to 10% Consider Suspending Dividend Payments to Finance Additional Growth... 13

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5 Executive Summary v Executive Summary We have evaluated East Coast Yachts (ECY) financial performance and the rate that ECY can expect to grow with and without raising external equity capital. After calculating ratios, comparing ECY s ratios to the industry, creating pro forma financial statements, and calculating external funds needed (EFN), we have decided that ECY will grow in the coming years, but if they want to grow at a rate of 20%, they risk having unfavorable debt ratios. We recommend reducing the planned growth rate to 10% and potentially suspending dividends. These recommendations will allow ECY to grow and avoid the inherent risk of taking on substantial debt.

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7 Introduction 1 Introduction ECY hired Dan Ervin and Company to assist with ECY s short-term financial planning and to evaluate its performance. ECY provided their income and balance sheet statements for We researched industry ratios and conditions, created pro forma income and balance sheet statements, and calculated the EFN needed for ECY to grow at its planned rate. From our research on the yacht industry, we discovered that while overall forecasts are good, the industry as a whole must still be cautious with its growth plans. IBISWorld predicted the following for the yacht industry: Over the five years to 2012, the industry s revenue is expected to decline at an average annual rate of 8.6%. The decline is largely attributable to a significant downturn in 2008 and 2009, resulting from the recession and the global financial crisis. In the five years to 2017, industry revenue is projected to continue increasing at an average annual rate of 6.9%. 1 We must evaluate ECY s growth potential with caution since revenues for the entire industry are expected to drop by 8.6%. We would also recommend watching the growth rate to see if it does start growing again after We must also consider that the yacht industry caters to a select group of customers and that ECY performs meticulous production on each yacht it produces. ECY caters to some of the world s wealthiest individuals, building new yachts that feature advanced nautical technologies, precision engineering, and top-of-the-line style and amenities 1. We must also consider how ECY is performing compared to the industry and the competition it might face from trade shows that will sell yachts to the same individuals for a cheaper price. This is especially important to consider in the midst of the recession. To assist ECY with its financial planning, we did the following: Created ratios for ECY and compared them to industry averages. Created pro forma income and balance sheet statements. Calculated the sustainable growth rate and external financing needed (EFN). Evaluated how much ECY will grow with and without equity financing. Our methods and conclusions are explained in the following sections of this report. 1 Reference Information: Smith, Gavin. (January 12, 2012). Luxury and Mega Yacht Manufacturing in the US Industry Market Research Report Now Available from IBISWorld. New Technologies and Wealthy Consumers Propel Revenue. IBISWorld [On-line]. Available:

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9 Methods 3 Methods for Evaluating ECY s Growth Potential As mentioned, we evaluated ECY s growth potential based on: Ratios compared to industry averages Pro forma income and balance sheet statements Sustainable Growth Rate External Financing Needed To calculate ECY s ratios, we used the following ratios and equations. (We are elaborating on the equations we used because we know different methods can be used from industry to industry.): Current Ratio = Current Assets / Current Liabilities Quick Ratio = (Current Assets Inventory) / Current Liabilities Total Asset Turnover = Sales / Total Assets Inventory Turnover = Cost of Goods Sold / Inventory Days' Sales in Inventory = 365/ Inventory Turnover Receivables Turnover = Sales / Accounts Receivable Days' Sales in Receivables = 365 / Receivables Turnover Debt Ratio = Total Debt / Total Assets Debt Equity Ratio = Total Liabilities / Total Equity Equity Multiplier = Total Assets / Total Equity Interest Coverage = EBIT / Interest Profit Margin = Net Income / Sales Return on Assets = Net Income / Total Assets Return on Equity = Net Income / Total Equity Inventory / Liabilities To prepare the pro forma statements we calculated the sustainable growth rate using the following equation: ROE x b 1-ROE x b We then created the pro forma statements based on that sustainable growth rate and assumed that everything would grow at that rate. From there, we were able to determine the EFN required. We then calculated a new EFN under the assumption that ECY would grow at the 20% they have planned, and we created new pro forma statements for that scenario. The results of our calculations are shown in the following section.

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11 Results 5 Results of Financial Evaluations The following sections show the results for our ratio calculations and pro forma statements. Result 1: Ratio Calculations The ratio calculations revealed that ECY is competitive in the industry. Several of its ratios were better than its competitors. The results for the significant ratios are shown below: Ratios Lower Quartile Median Upper ECY Quartile Current Ratio Quick Ratio Total Asset Turnover Inventory Turnover Days' Sales in Inventory Receivables Turnover Days' Sales in Receivables Debt Ratio Debt Equity Ratio Equity Multiplier Interest Coverage Profit Margin 4.05% 6.98% 9.87% 7.51% Return on Assets 6.05% 10.53% 13.21% 11.57% Return on Equity 9.93% 16.54% 26.15% 22.70% Inventory Over Liabilities

12 Results 6 Result 2: Pro Forma Statements Based on the Sustainable Growth Rate The following show the income and balance sheet statements based on ECY s sustainable growth rate of 10%. East Coast Yachts 2010 Pro Forma Income Statement Sales $ 184,018,615 COGS 129,685,224 Other Expenses 21,990,725 Depreciation 6,005,269 EBIT $ 26,337,396 Interest 3,309,497 Taxable Income $ 23,027,899 Taxes 9,211,160 Net Income $ 13,816,739 Dividends $ 8,290,044* Addition to RE 5,526,696 Tax Rate 40 % *Assumed same dividend payout as previous year. East Coast Yachts 2010 Pro Forma Balance Sheet Assets Liabilities & Equity Current Assets Current Liabilities Cash $ 3,345,793 Accounts Payable $ 7,106,236 Accounts Receivable 6,019,568 Notes Payable 14,384,050 Inventory 6,748,779 Total $ 16,114,140 Total $ 21,490,286 Fixed Assets Long Term Debt $ 33,735,000 Net Plant and Equipment $ 103,347,828 Shareholder's Equity Common Stock 5,200,000 Retained Earnings 55,667,696 Total Equity $ 60,867,696 Total Assets $ 119,461,968 Total Liabilities and Equity $ 116,092,981 EFN = $3,368,986

13 Results 7 Result 3: Pro Forma Statements Based on ECY s Desired Growth Rate The following pro forma statements represent what ECY could expect to see in terms of income, assets, and liabilities based on a 20% growth rate. East Coast Yachts 2010 Pro Forma Income Statement (20% growth) Sales $ 200,772,000 COGS 141,492,000 Other Expenses 23,992,800 Depreciation 6,552,000 EBIT $ 28,735,200 Interest 3,610,800 Taxable Income $ 25,124,400 Taxes 10,049,760 Net Income $ 15,074,640 Dividends $ 9,044,784 Addition to RE 6,029,856 Tax Rate 40 % *Assumed same dividend payout as previous year. East Coast Yachts 2010 Pro Forma Balance Sheet Assets Liabilities & Equity Current Assets Current Liabilities Cash $ 3,650,400 Accounts Payable $ 7,753,200 Accounts Receivable 6,567,600 Notes Payable 15,693,600 Inventory 7,363,200 Total $ 17,581,200 Total $ 23,446,800 Fixed Assets Long Term Debt $ 33,735,000 Net Plant and Equipment $ 112,756,800 Shareholder's Equity Common Stock 5,200,000 Retained Earnings 56,170,856 Total Equity $ 61,370,856 Total Assets $ 130,338,000 Total Liabilities and Equity $ 118,552,656 EFN = $11,785,344

14 Results 8 Result 4: Balance Sheet Statement Adjusted for Net Plant and Equipment Investments From our calculations, we realized that ECY is operating at 100% capacity. We also calculated that ECY would need to invest $30.0M in fixed assets (including a new plant and new equipment) to grow the company. We created a new pro forma balance sheet which shows the new investment in fixed assets with the sustainable growth rate of 10%. East Coast Yachts 2010 Pro Forma Balance Sheet ($30.0M Fixed Asset Investment) Assets Liabilities & Equity Current Assets Current Liabilities Cash $ 3,345,793 Accounts Payable $ 7,106,236 Accounts Receivable 6,019,568 Notes Payable 14,384,050 Inventory 6,748,779 Total $ 16,114,140 Total $ 21,490,286 Fixed Assets Long Term Debt $ 33,735,000 Net Plant and Equipment $ 123,964,000 Shareholder's Equity Common Stock 5,200,000 Retained Earnings 55,667,696 Total Equity $ 60,867,696 Total Assets $ 140,078,140 Total Liabilities and Equity $ 116,092,981 EFN = $23,985,158

15 Analysis 9 Analysis Our analyses are divided into two parts: Analysis for the Sustainable Growth Rate explains what ECY can expect if they grow at the rate we calculated for the sustainable growth rate. Analysis for the 20% Growth Rate explains what ECY can expect if they try to grow at a rate of 20%, which would require additional external financing. Analysis for the Sustainable Growth Rate In 2009, ECY s financial performance was slightly above average when compared to the industry. We believe these ratios show that ECY is competitive when compared to the industry. When analyzing the company s 2009 financial ratios, several key ratios show the financial status of ECY and how they are positioned for the future. These are analyzed in the following sections. Current Ratio and Quick Ratio Analysis The Current Ratio was less than one, which is below the median of the industry. At first glance, this ratio is cause for concern because it suggests the company has more bills due within the year than assets to pay them. However, we need to consider the total picture before drawing any conclusions. When we compare the Quick Ratio, which removes inventory from the asset base, with the Current Ratio and the other industry averages, we are able to determine that ECY s inventory levels are lower than most competitors. We then look at the Inventory Turnover and Days Sales in Inventory ratios, which show that once ECY produces a yacht, they are very effective at selling the yacht in the near future. ECY leads in its ability to turnover its inventory. This is important for this industry, especially when we consider the Current Ratio. Current ratios where inventory represents a significant portion of the assets combined with low turnover and high day s sales in inventory are cause for concern in an industry where products are highly customized to specific tastes. ECY s ratios imply a different, more assuring story than the median and lower quartile firms because ECY is able to efficiently manage its inventory levels. Because ECY manages its inventory better, they have a lower risk of liquidity than some of the other firms. This is important for this industry because it caters to customers who want custom yachts. It is important for a custom yacht company to quickly turn over its inventory because they expect customers who order customized yachts to pick them up soon after they are ready. These ratios show that ECY turns over its inventory better than its peers. In addition to the efficient management of inventory, ECY leads in its ability to manage and collect its receivables. Having industry leading numbers here shows that the company is efficient at managing its assets and lessens the concern about the Current Ratio being low; however, we would recommend that ECY take steps to improve its Current Ratio by keeping a slightly higher balance of cash on hand to meet short-term obligations.

16 Analysis 10 ROE, ROA, and Profit Margin Analysis Looking further into the financial ratios, ECY is above average on important ratios such as Profit Margin, Return on Assets, and Return on Equity, but there is still room to improve when compared to the upper quartile. ECY s profit margin is 7.51%, but the upper quartile is 9.87%. ECY generates $0.12 in income per dollar invested in assets where the upper quartile earns $0.13 per dollar. Lastly, ECY generates $0.23 for every dollar invested in equity where the upper quartile is earning $0.26 per dollar. Given these ratios, we feel that ECY is performing well against its competitors and is a healthy company overall; however, ECY could also improve these ratios. To improve its performance and accelerate growth, ECY could explore cost improvement programs to improve their profit margins. These could be investigated for both COGS and other expenses. Debt Ratio Analysis ECY is strong in several ratios, which puts it in a good position to grow in the future. The company s Debt Ratio and Debt to Equity Ratio are both low, which means ECY does not rely as heavily on debt as its peers do, and that the company s creditors have less money in the company than its equity holders. This means that ECY is already experiencing strong performance without leveraging itself to the extent that other companies in the industry are. Should the company decide to grow and finance this growth with long-term debt, the future gain prospects are encouraging. The Pro Forma Financial statements for 2010 in the Results section above (page 6) show a model for how much the company can grow. It shows that for a projected sustainable growth of 10%, the company will require only $3.4M of external financing. This will result in an increase of roughly $0.75M in dividends and $0.5M in additions to retained earnings for 2010, assuming the dividend payouts and retention ratios are held constant. This growth rate of 10% was calculated to be the maximum sustainable growth rate. Ten percent is the highest level of growth the firm can achieve without using external equity financing, while still maintaining a constant Debt to Equity ratio. Should ECY plan to grow larger than 10%, equity financing, such as issuing additional shares of stock, will be required, or ECY will have to increase its leverage. If ECY wants to avoid diluting its ownership or increasing its leverage, they should plan to grow at the maximum sustainable growth rate of 10%. Analysis for the 20% Growth Rate The following analysis shows why ECY will need external equity financing or another option if it wants to grow at 20%. Debt to Equity Ratio Analysis for a 20% Growth Rate ECY s original Debt to Equity ratio was.96. This ratio indicates that the company is borrowing against its equity almost 1-1 and is close to saturation of the equity of the company. ECY does not want to issue additional equity to finance its growth. We showed above that the maximum sustainable growth rate for the company is less than 20%. If ECY grows at 20% and uses debt financing, the Debt to Equity ratio will be This increases the leverage of the company and

17 Analysis 11 means that creditors will have a higher stake in the company than equity holders. Sales would have to increase by more than 20% to absorb the debt. ECY should consider financing a portion of this growth with equity and keeping its Debt to Equity ratio in the existing ideal position.

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19 Recommendations 13 Recommendations Based on our analyses, we can offer two recommendations to ECY. Recommendation 1: Reduce the Planned Growth Rate to 10% Overall, ECY is in a strong position to grow the company. However, given the current economic climate, the estimate that industry wide sales will drop by 8.6% for the next few years, and management s preference to not finance growth with equity, we recommend reducing the desired growth rate from 20% to 10%, which is the sustainable growth rate of the firm. If ECY plans to grow by 10%, they will not have to use equity to finance their investments (which is consistent with management s objectives) and they will be better prepared for an uncertain market. Recommendation 2: Consider Suspending Dividend Payments to Finance Additional Growth For ECY to support any growth, we learned that they will need to make an investment of $30.0M in fixed assets because they are currently operating at 100% capacity. At the 10% growth rate, we calculated an EFN of $24.0M to support this investment. Since ECY will not seek equity financing to support the fixed asset expansion, we recommend ECY reduce or suspend the dividend payment during the planned growth period. Suspending the dividend payment would create an additional retention of $8.3M to use towards the expansion. This approach would reduce the amount of debt financing required and mitigate the risk of becoming overly leveraged. Suspending the dividend payment also increases ECY s retention ratio, which provides a higher sustainable growth rate. This is important because the expansion in fixed assets, which is an increase of 31.9% over existing levels, would result in ECY operating under 100% capacity. Suspending the dividend payment increases the retention ratio to 1.0 and the sustainable growth rate to 29.3%. By altering how much money is retained in the business, ECY can position itself to reinvest its earnings in the expansion and will be able to pursue growth rates that enable a greater utilization of the existing capacity (i.e., above the original sustainable growth rate of 10%). ECY should consider adjusting its dividend policy in the short term so it can better position itself for the long term. If ECY accepts these recommendations, we believe that ECY will grow significantly and avoid the inherent risk of taking on substantial debt.