Facts, Figures and Forecast for the Vietnam Mobile Market MOBILE MONDAY VIETNAM

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1 Facts, Figures and Forecast for the Vietnam Mobile Market MOBILE MONDAY VIETNAM

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5 Vietnam Mobile Industry Landscape Total Population: 85 millions Percentage of Population age < 30: 50% Total Mobile Subscribers : 45 millions Forecasted Mobile User Growth: 75 %/annum No. of Mobile Operators: 7 (5GSM + 2 CDMA) Number of Mobile Content Providers: 150 Postpaid / Prepaid user: 10 / 90 Source: Frost & Sullivan & Nielsen

6 Vietnam Mobile Operator

7 Mobile statistics remain a mess and need standardizing MIC needs to standardise the data reporting for mobile subscriber numbers in line with international practice Without this there will be continued confusion in the market as to exactly what the numbers are Source: VietNamNet Bridge

8 Operator Vietnam s mobile statistics remain unreliable Reported total subscriber numbers (thousands) Viettel 60,680 34,150 Mobifone 53,660 28,820 VinaPhone 36,540 18,200 Active total subscriber numbers (thousands) S-Fone 4,810 2,200 EVN Telecom HT Mobile Data reported from March 2009 Sources: Operators; RJB Estimates

9 Vietnam Mobile Market Shares March 2008 Viettel, 38.4% Vinaphone, 25.4% S-Fone, 2.4% HT Mobile, 0.4% EVN Tel, 0.4% Mobifone, 32.9% Viettel continues to dominate the mobile market the picture a year ago Source: RJB Consulting

10 Cellular Market Shares - March 2009 Viettel 40.7% Vinaphone 21.7% S-Fone 2.6% EVN Tel 0.5% HT Mobile 0.2% Mobifone 34.3% Viettel continues to dominate the mobile market the picture 3 months ago Source: RJB Consulting

11 Vietnam Mobile Market Share Status Source: Frost & Sullivan

12 Vietnam Mobile Subscriber Composition Vietnam is predominantly a prepaid market with close to 95.5% of the mobile subscribers in 2014 Source: Frost & Sullivan

13 Vietnam Mobile Technology Mix Source: Frost & Sullivan

14 Vietnam Mobile Subscriber Growth Mobile Penetration rate in 2008 is around 74.9%. The market is expected to grow at an average of 6% from , with 2009 & 2010 recording the highest growth figures throughout the forecast period. Source: Frost & Sullivan

15 Vietnam Mobile Revenue Forecast The mobile revenue for 2008 is $2.29 billion, with an exponential growth for the forecast period , with a CAGR of 5.39% Source: Frost & Sullivan

16 Vietnam Mobile ARPU Trends As most major markets in Asia Pacific, postpaid ARPU is higher than prepaid ARPU, with the prepaid ARPU following the same trend as the blended ARPU in years following 2008 till 2014 Source: Frost & Sullivan

17 Vietnam Key Regulatory Issues New Telecommunication Law 3G Licensing Mobile Operator Privatization Prepaid Registration

18 Drivers of Mobile growth Lower prices of handsets and service plans Increased competition and possibility of entry by MVNOs Network expansion into rural areas Demographic trends Broadband capabilities and data usage through 3G deployment Thus by 2013 we forecast: Total market of 140 million mobiles is achievable in Vietnam Mobile penetration of about 155% is thus possible in that timeframe Issues: Cleaning out of unused numbers may have an effect of reducing absolute numbers over time Registration of pre-paid subscribers doesn t appear to have had much impact yet

19 Continued Rapid Growth Vietnam remains one of the fastest growing key markets in Asia even during the global crisis As GDP and income grow Vietnam s telecoms market has room to expand Demographic trends suggest that the boom will continue for at least the next 5 years, and probably longer

20 Summary of Key Vietnam Market Trends -The partial privatization of Vietnam s three larges operators, namely MobiFone, VinaPhone and Viettel is one of the last opportunities for foreign operators to invest in an emerging market, and it is no surprise that the process has draw the attention of over 30 bidders including SingTel, Telecom Malaysia International, NTT, France Telecom, just to name a few. -- 2G Network expansion will continue to be a major investment driver in Vietnam as operators rush to provide services in rural areas and compete with Viettel, which has the greatest number of base stations in the country of more than 12,000, having installed 7,000 in 2006 alone. VinaPhone and MobiFone are rushing to catch up, and aim to have 9,000 and 10,000 base stations by end of 2009, and the smaller networks of the other participants has been a large reason for their smaller subscriber growth, hence major expansion contracts are expected from them as well. Vietnam mobile network still experiences problems handling massive call volumes during holidays such as Tet (Lunar New Year), so we expected spending to increase network quality as well. - Vietnam will join the second wave of emerging market operators to deploy 3G services,, joining other neighboring countries such as India, China, Pakistan, and Thailand. Vietnams regulator, the Ministry of Information and Communications has granted 4 licenses in 2009, with the intent of commercially deploying service in The regulator will qualified each operator to undergo a network test, as well as to prove it has the financial muscle to effectively deploy the technology. 3G services will initially serve as a niche application in Vietnam due to the low penetration of enable handsets unless operators decide to pursue data card access to provide a fixed-line alternative to broadband service.

21 Thank You!

22 Contact Me: Tom See tomsee@mobilemondayvn.net Linkedin: Twitter: tomseetn

23 Why MobileMonday in Vietnam? Need to have a forum to refresh the industry (technology, business case, innovation, etc.) Need to have a channel to voice the positive side of the mobile industry. Need to foster closer communication and cooperation cross sector between stakeholders of the industry (telcos, vendors, CPs, developers, media, regulators)

24 MobileMonday Vietnam, Hanoi Chapter Proposed established by January 2008 Pre-Event : Monday, March 24,2008 Executive Brief in Hanoi First Event : Monday, May 05, 2008 in Zenta Café, Ho Chi Minh City. Latest Event : Monday, June 29, 2009 in Venus Restaurant, Hanoi.

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