TRENDS IN DELINQUENCIES AND FORECLOSURES IN UTAH
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1 TRENDS IN DELINQUENCIES AND FORECLOSURES IN UTAH April 2009 Jan Bontrager, Community Development Department, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
2 Outline of Presentation National Trends Rising foreclosures House price declines Rising unemployment Utah Trends in foreclosure Housing market softening Rising unemployment Scale of loan modifications still falls short of need
3 National Trends
4 National Trends Foreclosures rose steadily in 2008, with wide repercussions for US economy After a slight decline in the national foreclosure rate in the 3 rd Quarter of 2008, rose again in 4 th Quarter Factors driving foreclosures nationally House price declines Rising unemployment, coupled with turmoil in financial and credit markets, may further influence foreclosure rate going forward
5 National Foreclosure Starts Rose Slightly in 4th Quarter of National Foreclosures Starts Percent of All Loans Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, National Delinquency Survey, 4th Q 2008
6 Nationally, House Prices Continue to Decline 200 Case-Shiller National House Price Index (2000 = 100, quarterly) Source: Case - Shiller Home Price Index, 4 th Q 2008
7 Unemployment Rate Recession Marks Significant Jump in Unemployment U.S. Unemployment Rate Recession Unemployment Rate Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
8 Utah Trends
9 Foreclosures in Utah Have Risen Significantly, but Still Below US Average 3 Foreclosure Starts (Percent of All Loans) Alaska Washington Oregon Utah Idaho Hawaii US California Arizona Nevada 4Q Q Q Q 2008 Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, National Delinquency Survey, 4 th Q 2008
10 Percent of All Loans Utah Saw a Continued Increase in Foreclosure Starts in 4 th Quarter Utah: Foreclosure Starts Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, National Delinquency Survey, 4 th Q 2008
11 FHFA House Price Index 2000=100 Utah Seeing Softening of Real Estate Market 170 FHFA House Price Index (formerly OFHEO) (2000=100, quarterly) 160 Utah 150 United States Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (formerly OFHEO), 4 th Quarter 2008
12 FHFA House Price Index 2000 =100 St. George and Salt Lake City Experiencing Greatest Declines in House Values FHFA (formerly OFHEO) House Price Index (2000=100, quarterly) St. George Salt Lake City Logan Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (formerly OFHEO), 4 th Quarter 2008
13 Percent of Foreclosure Starts Utah s Foreclosures Reaching into All Mortgage Products 5.0 Foreclosure Starts by Loan Type Prime Fixed Prime ARM Subprime Fixed Subprime ARM Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, National Delinquency Survey, 4 th Q 2008
14 Utah Saw Slightly Higher Rates of High-Cost Lending During Subprime Boom than National Average 35% Percent of All Borrowers with High Interest Conventional Loans, % 25% 22.7% 23.1% 23.6% 24.3% 25.9% 27.3% 28.0% 28.1% 29.2% 20% 20.4% 15% 10% 5% 0% Hawaii Alaska Oregon Washington Idaho California USA Arizona Utah Nevada Source: Home Mortgage Disclosure Act Data, 2005
15 High Cost Lending in Utah More Prevalent Among Minority Borrowers 70% Utah: High Interest Conventional Loans by Race, % 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% All borrowers White borrowers Hispanic/Latino borrowers Black borrowers Asian/Pacific Islander borrowers Native American borrowers Source: Home Mortgage Disclosure Act Data, 2005
16 Percent Unemployment Rate on the Rise, But Still Below US Average 9.0 Unemployment Rate United States Utah Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, March 2009
17 Employment Trends by Industry in Utah Total Employed (thousands) Percent Change Utah Feb-09 1-mo.* 3-mo.* 12-mo. Total Trade, Transportation & Utilities Government Professional & Business Svcs Educational & Health Svcs Manufacturing Leisure & Hospitality Construction Financial Activities Other Services Information Natural Resources & Mining Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, February 2009; *Annualized.
18 Percent Change, year-over-year Significant Drop in Construction Employment 20 Industry Employment Growth: Construction (Year-over-year percent change, monthly) 15 Utah 10 United States Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, March 2009
19 Utah Foreclosure Data Maps
20 Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations, September 2007 Utah Data Maps Distribution of Lending Volume September 2007
21 Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations, September 2007 Utah Data Maps Areas Affected by Concentrated Foreclosures September 2007
22 Utah Data Maps Areas Affected by Concentrated Foreclosures April 2008 Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations, April 2008
23 Utah Data Maps Areas Affected by Concentrated Foreclosures November 2008 Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations, November 2008
24 Utah Data Maps Areas Affected by Concentrated Foreclosures February 2009 Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations, February 2009
25 Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations, February 2009 Utah Data Maps Concentration of REO Properties February 2009
26 Utah Data Maps Areas at Risk for Additional Foreclosures February 2009 Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations, February 2009
27 Salt Lake City Data Maps Neighborhoods Affected by Concentrated Foreclosures February 2009 Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations, February 2009
28 Salt Lake City Data Maps Concentration of REO Properties February 2009 Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations, February 2009
29 Salt Lake City Data Maps Neighborhoods at Risk for Additional Foreclosures February 2009 Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations, February 2009
30 Number (Adjusted for Hope Now Servicers) Loan Modifications as Share of Loan Workouts Have Increased 2500 Utah Loan Workouts Q Q Q Q Q Q Repayment Plans Loan Modifications Source: Hope Now Alliance Servicing Data, 4 th Quarter 2008
31 Number (Adjusted for Hope Now Servicers) Yet, Workouts Still Fall Short of Need 14,000 Foreclosure & Delinquencies v. Loan Workouts in Utah 4th Quarter ,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Serious Delinquencies Foreclosure Starts Foreclosure Sales Repayment Plans Loan Modifications Source: Hope Now Alliance Servicing Data, 4 th Quarter 2008
32 Conclusions
33 Conclusions Multi-pronged strategy is needed to stem foreclosure crisis Continued foreclosure prevention efforts are critical Foreclosure Prevention: Borrower Outreach, Refinance and Loan Modification (including principal reduction) Reaching these borrowers now may help to prevent unnecessary foreclosures Encourage borrowers to contact the Hope Hotline by calling (888) 995-HOPE or visiting
34 Conclusions Other strategies that can help to mitigate the negative impacts of foreclosure on families and neighborhoods Addressing vacant properties: ensuring that servicers maintain properties REO property disposition: return REO properties into productive use, affordable housing Ensuring continued access to credit and homeownership: credit repair, financial education, responsible lending
35 For More Information: FRBSF Community Development Website Links to other resources and research on foreclosure trends and mitigation strategies All publications, presentations available on our website Conference materials also posted shortly after events
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