How to Plan, Design & Implement A Bad Schedule Lessons Learned: The Scheduler as Generalist

Transcription

1 How to Plan, Design & Implement A Bad Schedule Lessons Learned: The Scheduler as Generalist North Florida Section Meeting Canaveral Council of Technical Societies Cocoa Beach, FL 20 March 2014 John Orr, PSP URS Corporation

2 Author Biography: John P. Orr, PSP Degrees / Certifications: 2 BS Chemical Engineering BA Biology PSP, Planning & Scheduling Professional, AACE International University: Bucknell University Ray, Bucknell Years of Experience: 29+ years, beginning in the golden days of yore, when scheduling was still performed with IBM punch cards. Worked for James J. O Brien, O Brien Kreitzberg & Associates Professional Field & Affiliations Construction Management, including scheduling, cost control, value engineering, project administration and claims analysis. North Florida Section President, AACE International. Technical Board member. Something you do not know about me: My first logged hours as a student pilot were in a de Havilland Tiger Moth.

3 INTRODUCTION: THE PURPOSE OF SCHEDULING 3

4 INTRODUCTION Purposes for the Schedule In the Beginning, there was the CPM Network and afterwards came the CPM Cost Estimate, which did not appear until Chapter 14, page 163. Primary Purpose: Planning Tool To plan and schedule the project work sequence, To support project management during the construction phase, To provide a road map for and projections of Project Completion. The focus is on the time element. McGraw Hill,

5 INTRODUCTION Purposes for the Schedule Enhancements to the Planning Tool: Long lead Procurement activities to schedule delivery dates Major equipment resources (cranes, hoists) scheduled based on the construction activities they support Work Breakdown by subcontract to allow the efficient staging of subcontractors as work areas become available Cost loading the contract value and projecting (planned) expenditures over time Resource loading of manpower, equipment, trades and persons to report (and level) resource curves and peaks Record keeping/project Documentation for actual dates, log records, and costs over time Productivity calculations developed from resources over time 5

6 INTRODUCTION Purposes for the Schedule 6 Additional Competing Purposes To Measure and Manage: Time Cost Earned Value Resources Risk Information/Communication Coordination Work Organization Forecasting Financial Planning Record Keeping Dispute Resolution Each individual purpose is well intended Each technique or methodology places new requirements on the Schedule database Stakeholders provide different input and usually expect different output and results

7 INTRODUCTION Purposes for the Schedule 7 The Key Role of the Scheduler: To Facilitate Collaboration between the Stakeholders! Project Managers Cost / Budget Analysts Earned Value Specialists Risk Analysts Designers Subcontractors Superintendents Timekeepers Financial Planners VP for Equipment Material Suppliers Cost Estimators Claims / Dispute Resolution Specialists Resources / Productivity Evaluation / Future Estimating Takeaway: The most common thread of failed projects and slipped schedules is inadequate collaborative planning

8 SCHEDULE DEVELOPMENT: PART I THE PLANNING PROCESS or: All Prior Planning Should Be Done in Advance 8

9 SCHEDULE DEVELOPMENT: Planning What Can Go Wrong During the Planning Process? Stakeholder interests vary: Some Use Schedules To Plan Some Use Schedules To Control Some Use Schedules To Monitor Some Use Schedules To Generate Progress Payments Some Use Schedules To Prepare Delay Claims (Is the schedule badly flawed or deliberately deceptive you decide!) Some Use Schedules To Defend Against Claims One Schedule Cannot Achieve All Ends With Equal Effectiveness! Some Stakeholder Goals and Interests Will Compete or Conflict! The Scheduler Must Control Schedule Development Anything that detracts from the primary purpose, a tool to measure time, is going to distort the time aspects and invalidate the completion projections 9

10 SCHEDULE DEVELOPMENT: Planning The Cost Estimate/WBS and the Planning Process 10 The WBS Approach to Planning can be detrimental The Cost Estimate and WBS presuppose that every work item is a deliverable The Coordination of work items is the key effort in planning The Schedule is the tool that models how the elements go together A Focus on Cost Management can be detrimental Budget, work authorizations, tracking logs, delivery tickets/receiving reports, inventory cost coding, schedule of values, earned value management, accounting system and timekeeping input/output strain the schedule The Primary Interest of the Scheduler should be in the Project achieving its Time Objectives Are you a Planner? Are you a Scheduler? Are you a Project Controls Professional? Are you a Forensic Scheduling Claims Consultant?

11 SCHEDULE DEVELOPMENT: Planning A Bad Schedule Development Scenario: Your business card says that are a Scheduler, 28 years old with a Master s degree in Construction Management You are given the Cost Estimate (the winning cost estimate) and the WBS Transfer the estimate and WBS into the scheduling software; Create new activities floor by floor, or zone by zone and distribute the hours from the cost estimate and add logic relationships; Establish original durations using default crew sizes (or a template from a prior project). Run the first schedule calculation pass, then use the software s resource leveling functions to adjust the crew sizes until you get a smooth resource usage curve that completes within the contract performance period. Add in the front end mobilization activities (a fragnet from a previous project); Add in the back end commissioning and closeout activities; Add procurement of long lead items and link to the initial installation activities Add constraints to make the bars appear where they belong What is wrong with this scenario? The bar chart looks great! 11

12 SCHEDULE DEVELOPMENT: Planning What are we missing? Workflow! Means and Methods! What schedulers should do best! We spent very little time on the core execution schedule elements (scope, duration, relationship) We have not focused on the transition points from one trade to another Disturbing Observations: 1. The majority of large commercial and industrial projects finish between 5 10% longer than their planned project length. 2. A study of large infrastructure projects showed an average of 17% time overruns. (Carson/Palmer Construction CPM Conference Session THU16) 3. Upwards of 90% of all actual durations are within +/ 5% of the original durations. 12

13 SCHEDULE DEVELOPMENT: PART B THE PLANNING PROCESS or: Mind the Gap! 13

14 SCHEDULE DEVELOPMENT: MIND THE GAP! Where do projects lose time? Process of elimination; if the activity durations are not the culprit What is the nature of the transition points (relationships) from one activity to another? Two activities: The Predecessor activity has a 20 day duration, and subcontractor wants it at least 25% complete before he starts his follow on: Relationship link: SS/+5 There is no clear scope associated with this relationship or the duration of the lag factor. There is no reasonableness test we can use to check. 14

15 SCHEDULE DEVELOPMENT: MIND THE GAP! A Start to Start/+5 link from Activity A to Activity B: Activity B cannot start until some amount of productive work has been performed on Activity A. This is the Productive Time Gap Activity A [Wash Dishes] may have administrative predecessors: Access to dirty dishes Scrub pad Dish rack to drain dishes Dish soap Someone to wash the dishes Water Activity B [Dry Dishes] may have administrative predecessors: Access to wet dishes Someone to dry the dishes Dishtowel Somewhere to put clean dishes 15 This is the basis of the Administrative Time Gap

16 SCHEDULE DEVELOPMENT: MIND THE GAP! Failure to perform any of the administrative actions can easily preclude or delay either activity from starting or continuing to completion The Administrative Time Gap in Construction Construction activity administrative predecessors: 16 People to perform the work of the activity Tools, equipment and materials A place for the work to occur Vital information Example Administrative Time Gap / Delay Activity A Erect Hollow Metal Studs Activity B Hang Drywall Relationship SS/+3 days

17 SCHEDULE DEVELOPMENT: MIND THE GAP! What does this mean to a scheduler? The daily work of the Project Manager and the Superintendents is often quite independent of the project schedule. They are frequently focusing on Administrative Gap type items. The daily priorities of the project management team do not appear to correlate to the priorities reflected in the schedule (indicated by the total float values). What value can the scheduler add? Carson/Palmer Worst Scheduling Practice #9 Inconsistent Level of Detail Between the Trades Orr Addendum: Evaluate the handoffs between the Trades 17

18 Bad Scheduling Practices or: What We Learned at the 2014 Construction CPM Conference 18

19 Bad Scheduling Practices: Dick Faris Eight Steps Backwards Slipping Backwards The Devolution of Scheduling: 1. Drag and Drop Gantt Charts; 2. Misuse of Constraints; 3. Lack of Logic Relationships; 4. Start to Start Ladders; 5. Bad Durations; 6. Improper Use of Lags (and no, he doesn t know what SF is used for); 7. Lack of Training; And the worst problem? 8. LACK OF OWNERSHIP BY THE PROJECT PARTICIPANTS [Read: schedules that satisfy the client, but not the project team] 19

20 Bad Scheduling Practices: Chris Carson/Glen Palmer The Ten Worst Scheduling Practices Used Today: Incomplete Scope & Logic High Float Value activities 9. Inconsistent Level of Detail Between Trades 8. Misuse of Lag Factors 7. Failure to Update Periodically w/in Small Windows 6. Failure to Perform Time Impact Analysis of Delays 5. Lack of Schedule Risk Management 4. Poor Critical Path Analysis / Management 3. Lack of Resource Planning 2. Adjustments to Logic & Durations to Stay on Schedule 1. Failure to Perform Constructability Reviews Carson/Palmer Construction CPM Conference Session THU16

21 Bad Scheduling Practices: Chris Carson/Glen Palmer The Worst Schedule Development Failures: Incomplete Scope & Logic High Float Value activities 9. Inconsistent Level of Detail Between Trades 8. Misuse of Lag Factors 7. Failure to Update Periodically w/in Small Windows 6. Failure to Perform Time Impact Analysis of Delays 5. Lack of Schedule Risk Management 4. Poor Critical Path Analysis / Management 3. Lack of Resource Planning 2. Adjustments to Logic & Durations to Stay on Schedule 1. Failure to Perform Constructability Reviews Carson/Palmer Construction CPM Conference Session THU16 (highlighting added)

22 CONCLUSIONS FOR SCHEDULE DEVELOPMENT OR: WHAT DOES THE YOUNG SCHEDULER TAKE HOME FROM THE CONSTRUCTION CPM CONFERENCE? AND WHAT DOES SHE TELL HER BOSS? 22

23 Conclusions and Guidance for Schedule Development But First, a Warning: The Fallacy of Greater Detail The law of diminishing returns One day duration activities are not good scheduling practice The Best Advice to a young Lieutenant Connect with your Sergeants (and Chiefs) Goal: Prepare schedules that the Superintendents will use Plan the Work, Work the Plan, Monitor and Revise the Plan If the PM and Superintendent aren t using it, Fix it! The Schedule is a Model of a Plan Make sure you understand the plan Don t blame government specifications Make sure the schedule is the working schedule 23

24 Conclusions and Guidance for Schedule Development Fight for Prior Planning, Done in Advance Constructability Reviews Schedule Risk Workshops If you can t obtain them formally, prepare as if you were: Add Risk Drivers/impact points to your schedule Anything that can stop the project should be included Understand the Role of the Scheduler as Generalist Modeling the Plan means modeling the workflow, the transitions between trades, collaboration of suppliers, trades, commissioning agents Workflow is the heart of the schedule The schedule models the entire project scope, including third party impact points and potential drivers that were not 24 included in the cost estimate and WBS

25 Conclusions and Guidance for Schedule Development Avail Yourself of the Resources & Experience of Others Construction CPM Conference AACE International Recommended Practices Read them Attend local Section meetings; discuss them Help write and revise them Remember that the Schedule is Irreplaceable The external inputs, outputs all require the establishment, monitoring and adjusting of the time element of the project None of them work without an accurate schedule Facilitating the collaboration and compilation of the inputs and experience of the project team is the primary role of the Scheduler. It is ALL your turf! 25

26 Upcoming Annual Meetings Come to our 2014 AACE International annual meeting at the Sheraton New Orleans! Industry focus at the next two annual meetings: June 15 18, 2014 Energy/Oil& Gas New Orleans June 28 July 1, 2015 Mining Las Vegas

27 Questions?