PAYE Real-Time Risk. A project to implement predictive analytics and complex rules into Revenue s core processing systems to combat fraud and misuse

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1 PAYE Real-Time Risk A project to implement predictive analytics and complex rules into Revenue s core processing systems to combat fraud and misuse

2 Background to the PAYE System Designed to minimise the compliance burden on the 2.2 million PAYE taxpayers But not trivial to administer for the Revenue Commissioners 500 Revenue staff working on PAYE 22 million updates to customer records annually 7.7bn collected annually 500m in tax refunds made directly to PAYE taxpayers in 2010

3 PAYE Administration up to the late 1990 s Result = Delays of Weeks + Frustration

4 A paradigm shift in Customer Service 57% increase in the number of PAYE employments in 10 years Significant resource constraints High customer service standards

5 Publically Recognised Success Postal backlogs eliminated Hugely improved customer response times Taoiseach s Excellence Award Quality Standard in Excellence Central Irish egovernment Award

6 PAYE Administration in the Noughties ( ) Online Validation 300+ Rules Nightly Processing No Review Required Refund (customer) Tax Credit (employer) Online Validation Review Required Approve Decline Amend

7 The price of success One person s customer service is another person s Confusion Opportunity

8 Strengthening the defences Online Validation Additional Rules 400+ Nightly Processing No Review Required Refund (customer) Tax Credit (employer) Online Validation Review Required Approve Decline Amend

9 Enter Predictive Real-Time Analytics Key existing system built on rules engine (Risk Evaluation, Analysis and Profile) Successful track record with standalone analytics (Revenue Analytics Branch) Growing focus on real-time analytics in public sector globally Focusing on prevention of fraudulent and erroneous payments rather than a look back model Embedding analytics into core production systems Opportunity to team with the private sector created accelerated impetus (Accenture s global Analytics Centre)

10 The PAYE Real-Time Risk Project Objectives Develop an analytical model (SAS) predictive of fraudulent behaviour re tax credit and refund claims Develop complex rules (Intracom s Eskort rules engine) based on analytical insights Embed the predictive model and complex rules into the architecture of Revenue s core systems Augment and complement the existing rules within Revenue s systems Prevent monies or credits to which a customer is not entitled from going out rather than trying to recoup them in a look back audit

11 Avoiding Paralysis by Analysis PAYE tax credit and refunds as a pilot project Project commenced in Jan 2011 Model and rules integrated into IT systems 2011 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul 12 weeks later model and rules developed System live in July 2011

12 A Virtuous Circle Existing Business Rules Predictive Models New Complex Rules

13 PAYE Administration Today Online Validation RTR Engine Nightly Processing No Review RTR Required Engine Refund (customer) If Risky Tax Credit (employer) Online Validation Review Required Approve Decline Amend

14 Business Involvement the critical success factor This cannot succeed as just an IT project Early and ongoing engagement with the business required: To test the model To define the end-to-end business process To communicate with the local Revenue offices To sell the benefits of the system To define the required business controls Collaborative governance structure at the heart of successful implementation

15 Using the system a caseworker view

16 Using the system a management view

17 Using the system a management view

18 Using the system a view for the Analytics Branch Monitoring & Improving Models Criteria Measured: ROC & Lift charts Champion/ Challenger Models

19 A cycle of continuous learning Right first time is not a realistic aspiration Learning from live experience is key Developing a self-learning loop

20 Transaction Processing Factory Analytics Laboratory A cycle of continuous learning Data Warehouse Predictive Model Continuous Improvement Cycle Tax Officials Manage: Monitor, evaluate and improve Gather and analyse data Predictive Model Complex Rules Existing Checks Complex Rules Computer Applications On-line channels: Stop highest risk transactions Nightly batch: Additional checks & flag if risky Tax Officials Casework: Investigate and provide feedback per transaction Customers Faster customer service for valid transactions Innocent errors identified and resolved Fraud cases blocked

21 So what have we achieved so far? Early days... but tangible results 50% increase in accuracy of stopped cases A project which paid for itself within 8 months No technical or performance degradation Framework in place for future models and taxes A n informed presumption of honesty

22 So what have we achieved so far? Very close engagement with a number of Partner offices Different case-working approaches being piloted Best Practice will emerge Real-Time Risk catalyst for review of existing processes Non-productive work is being removed Recommendations emerged from co-operative process between Staff, Unions & Management

23 Customer Service Customer service with a safety net 2000 s Today 1990 s 2000 s Today Best Rigorous Vastly of improved both worlds Resource Quality customer customer Intensive service service Poor Rigour More Customer efficient restored use Service of Most resources efficient use of Rigour resources partly compromised 1990 s Rigour

24 Too early to say, but we will: Has customer behaviour changed? conduct analysis using Treatment and Control Groups monitor changes and effects of interventions over time on various customer segments use direct and indirect contacts with the wider customer base to effect change

25 So... what next? PAYE learning from live experience Recalibrate the model (RAB currently working on Version II) Moving some existing rules into the Real-Time Risk Framework Eliminating some existing rules? Evidence-based redesign of tax, system, legislation? Follow the money... Building VAT models and rules Underpayments and repayments Integrating with Revenue s Case Management and Audit systems And then... VAT Income Tax, Corporation Tax, Relevant Contracts Tax, PAYE Employers, Excise, Customs...

26 Lessons Learned Just do it Early and ongoing engagement with the business Allow sufficient time between model development and technical integration Use an iterative approach not as linear as other projects Seek comprehensive training data as early as possible And a host of technical lessons... need to create flexible and scalable Analytics Base Table utilise Time Series in predictive models etc, etc...

27 May you live in interesting times... Unprecedented challenges but...a system that: Creates a fairer and more equitable regime for hardpressed compliant PAYE workers Pays for itself (and then some) at a time when the purse strings are necessarily tight Sends a strong signal to those who would defraud the state Provides replicable model for other public sector agencies Contributes to the national recovery and to the public sector reform agenda

28 APPENDIX A SYSTEM ARCHITECTURE

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32 APPENDIX B PAYE SYSTEM OVERVIEW

33 The PAYE System Employee Taxation in Ireland (i) The Pay As You Earn (PAYE) system is a method of tax deduction under which an employer calculates and deducts any income tax due each time a payment of wages, salary etc. is made to an employee. A system of tax credits operates within the Income Tax regime in Ireland, with each income tax payer entitled to receive, as a minimum, a certain amount as a personal tax credit each year. For employees, tax credits are deductible from tax payable to arrive at a net tax deduction from each pay cheque. Revenue advise the employer at the start of the year of the tax credits that they employee is entitled to and the tax rates to apply. We operate a cumulative basis of PAYE in Ireland. This ensures that, when operated properly, each employee s tax liability will be spread out evenly over the year. The tax to be deducted in a particular week or month is the cumulative tax due from 1 January to that date, reduced by the amount of tax previously deducted. The cumulative system operates for both tax credits and tax rate bands. This ensures, for example, that if an employee has a period of unemployment during the year, if they return to employment during the same year, they will have built up their tax credits over the period of unemployment and they will pay a reduced amount of tax from their first pay cheque in the new employment.

34 The PAYE System Employee Taxation in Ireland (ii) In addition to the basic tax credits granted to each taxpayer at the start of the year, additional tax credits can be claimed during the course of the year which come into effect immediately once Revenue sends an instruction to the employer about their employee s new tax credits. In these circumstances, the employer will make a refund of tax to the employee in their pay cheque. Alternatively, a PAYE taxpayer can wait to claim additional tax credits at the end of the year and, in those cases, any tax refund will be made by Revenue. Another feature of the cumulative basis of tax deduction is that when an employee changes employment, in order to ensure that the new employer can operate the cumulative basis for the employee, the new employer has to be advised of the amount of pay earned and tax deducted in the previous employment. While there is additional administration associated with the cumulative basis of deduction, it is very equitable for the employee and should ensure that the employee s tax deductions balance correctly at the end of the year.

35 The PAYE System Employee Taxation in Ireland (iii) Employers are key to the operation of the PAYE system as they make all the deductions and subsequently remit any tax deducted to Revenue. Lastly, the employer also deducts Pay Related Social Insurance (PRSI) a contribution from the employee to the national welfare service and a newly introduced Universal Social Charge (USC) a combined Health Contribution and additional charge on income from the salaries of their employees.

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