The Innocent Fraud of Fiscal Policy
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1 The Innocent Fraud of Fiscal Policy
2 Govt. Deficit = Private Savings!!! Govt. Deficits ADD to non govt. savings. Govt. Surpluses SUBTRACT from non govt. savings. This is Accounting, NOT Theory! A Case of Innocent Fraud The Myth of Ricardian Equivalence
3 How Does Govt. Spend? Actual Cash Checks Crediting Bank Accounts Operationally, these are not Revenue Constrained There are NO Operational Constraints on Govt. Spending There are ONLY Self Imposed Constraints
4 Taxation Reduces balances in private sector accounts. Govt. doesn t get anything. Govt. savings in its own currency has no application whatsoever! If payment is made for taxes in actual cash it is shredded. If payment is made for govt. bonds in actual cash it is shredded.
5 So, Why Does Govt. Tax? Taxation functions to cause individuals to offer goods and services in return for the needed funds to pay taxes. Taxation functions to create unemploymentdefined as people looking for paid work. The funds to pay taxes comes from govt. spending. Govt. spending provides the paid work to eliminate the unemployment created by taxes.
6 Why Does Govt. Borrow? Spending is independent of borrowing. Borrowing is best thought of as coming after spending. The Penalty for Not Borrowing is a 0% Interest Rate, Not a Bounced Check! Japan, for example, easily maintains a 0% interest rate policy, with record budget deficits, simply by spending more than it borrows. The interest rate is set by the Central Bank, NOT market forces!
7 How Much Does Govt. Need to Spend? Enough to allow for tax payment Plus enough for any savings If Govt. doesn t spend enough for the rest of us to pay our taxes and save as much as we want to the evidence is unemployment.
8 Review- It s ALL about private savings! Govt. Surplus means Reduced Non Govt. Savings. Govt. Doesn t Gain Wealth Govt. Deficit means Increased Non Govt. Savings. Govt. Doesn t Lose Wealth
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10 Paradox of Thrift- and The Govt. Says We Aren t Trying Hard Enough to Save! Decisions to Save (Not Spend Income) Lead to LESS Savings
11 Extreme Example No One Spends Any of their Income Nothing gets sold Everyone loses their job There is no income There is no saving The universal decision to save caused savings to go to 0!
12 Institutional Structure Encourages People not to Spend! Tax advantaged personal savings accounts Tax advantaged Private Superannuation funds Government Superannuation Schemes Life Insurance Funds Needs to hold actual cash for transactions International portfolio diversification ALL THIS CONTRIBUTES TO THE NEED FOR GOVT. DEFICIT SPENDING!!!
13 The Gap is Filled by Private Sector Debt or Govt. Spending
14 Can Private Debt Expansion Drive the Economy? Yes, within limits, as in Australia for the last few years. The key is debt service levels, not absolute quantities of debt. When debt service hits a max % of income debt growth slows and the economy falters.
15 For a given tax structure, if people want to work, but not buy anything, and not go further into debt The Government can buy the output (increase spending) Or there can be unemployment and a faltering economy
16 Review Budget surpluses reduce private savings (increase private debt) Budget surpluses do not add to govt. wealth or ability to spend. Budget surpluses can be achieved only via decreases in non govt. savings (increases in non govt. debt) Budget surpluses reduce aggregate demand.
17 Functional Finance Govt runs surpluses in order to reduce private savings and reduce consumer demand. Govt. runs deficits to increase private savings and increase private demand. Govt. finance is not an issue.
18 Using Sector Analysis to Understand the World Economy
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21 Why Japan is doing Well Now
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24 Conclusion In a floating exchange rate world, government is still acting as if it was supporting a fixed exchange rate regime. This innocent fraud is undermining our current and future standard of living. The cost of today s mainstream notions of fiscal responsibility are robbing the planet of universal economic prosperity.
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