SOA Annual Symposium Shanghai. November 5-6, Shanghai, China. Session 5b: Motor Insurance Market in China. Scott Yin

Transcription

1 SOA Annual Symposium Shanghai November 5-6, 2012 Shanghai, China Session 5b: Motor Insurance Market in China Scott Yin

2 Scott Yin ( 殷 兆 男 ) FIAA Overview Market overview Key trends and issues 1

3 Market Overview Motor insurance products CTP Commercial motor (voluntary) Third party liability Property damage Burglary & theft Glass Etc 2

4 Market size The total P&C premium in first three quarters of 2012 total over RMB 400b Based on figures in 2010, motor insurance makes up 77% of the P&C market by premium Agriculture 4% Commercial property 7% Liability 3% Cargo 2% Credit 2% Source: CIRC Other 5% Motor 77% New vehicle sales slowing Government 20 incentives replaced Licensing restrictions Rising cost of 8 6 Petrol 4 2 Licensing 0 million vhicles Car Sales * Source: NBS 3

5 Premium growth also slowing High correlation Offset by Strong growth of luxury vehicles, which attract higher premium Rising penetration RMB Billion * Financial Year Source: CIRC, NBS Written Premium Car Sales Million vehicles Share of commercial increasing Motor commercial insurance s share of the total motor insurance premium have increased from 65% to 72%, from 2007 to 2010: CTP premium reform in 2008 led to a downward rate adjustment Motor commercial insurance penetration have increased over time RMB Billion Financial Year Commercial Motor CTP Source: CIRC 4

6 High market concentration Market concentration 80.0% 70.0% 0% have increased over 60.0% the past few years, 50.0% 40.0% the top three P&C 30.0% 20.0% insurer s market 10.0% 0.0% share have increased from 61.7% (2007) to 68.2% (2010) Market Share (%) Financial Year PICC PingAn CPPIC Source: CIRC, Company CTP market is not profitable CTP continue to generate losses Loss ratio in 2011 have flattened compared to 2010, perhaps due to compensation caps associated with this class; Expense ratio close to 30% in recent years. Percentage (%) 120.0% 100.0% 80.0% 60.0% 40.0% 20.0% 0.0% Financial Year Loss Ratio Expense Ratio Source: CIRC, EY analysis 5

7 Commercial motor is profitable COR have been reducing since 2007, driven by CTP reform in 2008 which involved increased CTP coverage. Introduction of the insured vehicle information platform. Percentage (%) 120.0% 100.0% 80.0% 60.0% 40.0% 20.0% 0.0% Financial Year Loss Ratio Expense Ratio Source: CIRC, EY analysis Commercial motor business quality is deteriorating Industry analysis shows the business quality peaked in 2010 Business quality started to deteriorate in 2011 While the 2011 financial results are relatively flat compared to 2010, the 2012 full year results are likely to reflect the deterioration as premium is earned 6

8 Distribution channel Top three distribution channels are: Direct Car dealer Representatives Direct channel includes telesales over the counter sales door to door sales Distribution Channel P&C 2011 Sideline Agent (Car Dealer) 27% Broker 7% Representative (Tied Agent) 27% Source: CIRC, EY analysis Direct 29% Agent 10% Key trends and issues 7

9 Telesales is rapidly rising In 2011, P&C telesales from the top 3 insurers: Ping An leading the way with RMB 22.2b, about 26.6% of the total premium income; CPPIC has RMB 5.4b, making up 8.7% of the total, this represents a 397% increase from the previous year; PICC investing heavily in telesales; The Global Insurance Consumer Survey Ernst & Young has conducted a groundbreaking survey of insurance customers. Using the research firm, Ipsos, we set out to test the received wisdom by interviewing 9000 consumers of life and non-life personal lines insurance products in Asia Pacific. The survey interviewed consumers in Australia, Hong Kong, Singapore, Malaysia, China, Indonesia and South Korea during August and October This was as part of a global survey covering 24,000 consumers across 23 markets in 7 regions around the world. The survey is the most extensive of its kind the breadth and depth of the research appears to be unprecedented. 8

10 Asia Pacific summary Non-life sector Myth 1: The future is online Received wisdom is that the use of internet resources is growing rapidly and in future online will be the dominant channel for research and transactions. 39% *56% of respondents across Asia Pacific are using online comparison sites, blogs or other online sources to research their purchases Word of mouth recommendation from family and friends is rated highly by all countries in the region, particularly in China, Indonesia and Hong Kong Our research indicates that online is an important part of the future, but only as one component of an integrated channel management strategy. Asia Pacific summary Non-life sector Myth 1: The implications for insurers o Across all age groups of respondents there was use of online sources of information, however only the younger respondents relied on social media with older respondents placing more trust in corporate websites. o Even markets with higher penetration such as Australia and Korea, insurers have been relatively slow to adopt full transactional capability online. o There are still stages in the value chain where customers prefer some personal contact. 49% *55% of consumers in Asia Pacific reported they have considered using an internet site to purchase 14% *18% have already bought through an internet site Implications for insurers: Asia Pacific insurers need to maintain a multi-channel distribution strategy. We would expect the online channel to become a more important part of the distribution suite. We believe that leading companies should look to social media and mobile technology to enable customers and their peer groups to share information and opinions on insurance products and providers. Insurers will need to consider how to integrate online and offline channels seamlessly, ensuring accurate record keeping and consistent processes over four different communication channels is a technology challenge for many. 9

11 Opening of CTP market to foreign insurers On 14 February 2012, it was announced in the joint statement t t of outcomes under the US-China Strategic Economic Dialogue that foreign insurers will be able to sell Compulsory Third Party (CTP) Motor insurance in China. Commercial motor price deregulation In Feb 2012, CIRC issued notice to move towards more liberal l pricing i Insurers must satisfy a set of conditions to develop own provisions and rates In March 2012, the IAC issued Model provisions motor commercial insurance 10

12 Move towards pricing sophistication In response to the regulatory changes, there are overwhelming demand d for motor pricing Generalised linear modelling Customer segmentation 11