The implications of an EMU unemployment insurance scheme for supporting incomes
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1 The implications of an EMU unemployment insurance scheme for supporting incomes H. Xavier Jara and Holly Sutherland ISER, University of Essex 4 th SEEK Conference on Public Finance and Income Distribution in Europe ZEW, 16 th May 2014
2 Motivation Need for greater risk sharing across member states in order to provide better shock absorption against asymmetric economic fluctuations (European Commission, 2012) An EMU unemployment insurance scheme could serve as an insurance mechanism to smooth fluctuations in income across member states (see e.g. Dullien (2013)) strengthen national automatic stabilizers improve individual income protection of the unemployed and their families potentially enhance social cohesion.
3 Summary of what we do Assess the additional effects of a top-up EMU UI Coverage of UI Net Replacement Rates Stabilisation of household income Protection from risk of poverty For everyone currently in paid work, if they were to enter unemployment Coverage etc higher than for the currently unemployed or those most at risk Based on a microsimulation approach (EUROMOD) and micro-data from EU-SILC Constraints on modelling some UI features due to limitations of SILC
4 Plan of the talk Introduction An EMU unemployment scheme Methods and data Results Concluding remarks Future research
5 Introduction National UI systems vary in many dimensions (Esser et al., 2013) Comparisons and assessments quite complex. Challenges to suggest pathways to harmonisation. Dimensions of UIs to take into account: Eligibility: contributions conditions Eligibility: other conditions (e.g. employment status (employed or selfemployed), type of employment contract, age). Level of payment. Duration of entitlement. Unemployment assistance, social assistance and other safety net benefits Integration in rest of tax-benefit system (taxable or not etc.)
6 An EMU unemployment insurance scheme Based on paper On Automatic Stabilisers by a DG-EMPL working group. All currently employed and self-employed up to age 64. Payable from the 4 th to 12 th month of unemployment. Earnings during at least 3 months in the previous 12 2 versions Flat: 33% of average earnings in the country Proportional: 50% of most recent own gross monthly earnings, with no floors or ceilings. Same treatment as national UI in the rest of the tax benefit system (taxable or not, etc.) Top up existing UI if EMU>national on a month-by-month basis (no losers)
7 An example: Latvian from top earnings quintile with full contributions ( UI month-bymonth) National UI EMU-UI Flat EMU-UI Proportional
8 Methods and data Use EUROMOD version G1.4 EU-SILC policies (UI and other) 10 EMU countries (DE, EE, EL, ES, FR, IT, LV, AT, PT, FI) Simulate transitions from work to unemployment For all those currently in work For each member in the household in turn Compare disposable hh income before and after transition, with and without EMU-UI Focus on additional effects of a common EMU-UI scheme at national level The first year of unemployment
9 Results Coverage of UI: how much is it extended? Beneficiaries of EMU-UI Net Replacement Rates Income stabilisation: household disposable income after all direct taxes and cash benefits (including UI) Risk of poverty on becoming unemployed: how much is it reduced?
10 Coverage: % currently in work covered by any UI DE EE EL ES FR IT LV AT PT FI National UI With EMU-UI EUROMOD G1.4
11 Beneficiaries: % currently in work who would receive additional EMU-UI flat % flat % flat % flat % flat % flat % flat % flat % flat % flat % DE EE EL ES FR IT LV AT PT FI Receives national UI No national UI EUROMOD G1.4
12 Mean rate of replacement of household disposable income (%) DE EE EL ES FR IT LV AT PT FI With EMU-UI Proportional With EMU-UI Flat National UI EUROMOD G1.4
13 Income stabilisation coefficient: with and without EMU-UI flat % flat % flat % flat % flat % flat % flat % flat % flat % flat % DE EE EL ES FR IT LV AT PT FI Without EMU-UI With EMU-UI EUROMOD G1.4
14 At risk of poverty in unemployment with and without EMU-UI 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% flat % flat % flat % flat % flat % flat % flat % flat % flat % flat % DE EE EL ES FR IT LV AT PT FI poor in-work at risk at risk without EMU-UI EUROMOD G1.4
15 Concluding remarks Variations in design of national UIs, in many dimensions FR, FI: national > EMU in most/all dimensions (except self-employed, younger workers) EL, IT, LV, AT: EMU-UI(%)>national in one or more important ways LV national UI 9 months only EL flat rate provides low income replacement; even EMU-UI(flat) offers more IT, AT: low ceilings and net earnings base in AT Variations in characteristics Self-employment in EL and IT (and contracts without insurance in IT)
16 Concluding remarks A measure of the extent to which a common EMU-UI could replace national UIs providing a cross-country insurance mechanism minimising additional cost (and losers) Challenging but could go further Improving the protective and stabilising effects in addition to a cross-country insurance mechanism; necessary to Improve generosity in Greece Improve inclusiveness in Italy Lengthen duration in Latvia Some gaps/inadequacies in most national benefits that a EMU-UI could fill
17 Future research Improve EMU-UI design: Proportional scheme with a ceiling and floor Simulation of particular unemployment scenarios Selecting those most at risk at national level Asymmetric shocks Cross-country macroeconomic stablisation Financing options
18 Thank you! Acknowledgements and further information The process of extending and updating EUROMOD is financially supported by the Directorate General for Employment, Social Affairs and Inclusion (DG-EMPL) of the European Commission. EUROMOD is made generally available for academic and not-forprofit use. Contact For more information see Funding for this analysis from the Social Situation Monitor Paper has been published as an SSM Research Note and EM Working Paper.
19 Additional charts
20
21 Net Replacement Rates of household disposable income (%)
22 Income stabilisation by household income quintile Germany Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Estonia Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Greece Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Spain Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q France Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Italy Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Latvia Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Austria Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Portugal Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 5.0 Finland EMU-UI flat EMU-UI proportional Q1-5.0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 EUROMOD G1.4
23 Additional budgetary cost of EMU-UI per unemployed (% of median hh disposable income)
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