Environmental Change Institute. The FoRUM Project Flood risk: Building Infrastructure Resilience through better Understanding and Management choices
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1 Environmental Change Institute The FoRUM Project Flood risk: Building Infrastructure Resilience through better Understanding and Management choices October 22, 2015
2 How credible are system flood risk models: can they be relied upon in policy making? Presentation provided to Working Group F of the European Commission By Jaap Flikweert, RHDHV On behalf of the FoRUM project and in collaboration with HKV Netherlands Page 2
3 Supporting decisions through national flood risk system models Introduction to the FoRUM project System risk models: what & why The challenge of validation Conclusions Page 3
4 Introduction to FoRUM Funding: UK Research Council NERC Status: Knowledge transfer project Programme: Nov Mar 2016 Research team: Lead by Paul Sayers and Jim Hall, University of Oxford Contributions from University of Middlesex (Edmund Penning-Rowsell) and University of Southampton (Rob Nicholls) Industry stakeholders: Environment Agency, Network Rail, Thames Water, JBA Trust, CH2M, RHDHV, HR Wallingford Page 4
5 System risk : what is it? One integrated model of Source Pathway Receptor Whole range of loading conditions All failure modes Flood spreading Risk = Probability x Consequence Models & methods have long existed for each component this is about integrating the components Page 5
6 System risk : why do it? System risk helps to answer the big questions: Do we have the right protection levels? Are spending the right amount of money on risk reduction? Are we spending it on the right things? Two applications: the Netherlands and England Page 6
7 The Netherlands: VNK2 Project VNK2: Flood Risk in the Netherlands Methods under development since 1996 Aim: support progress in how the legal standard is formulated: Chance of defence failure Risk of flooding Calculate flood risk (economic & casualties) Review if existing safety standards are appropriate Set standards in terms of risk Also helps prioritise improvement works and multi-layer safety Page 7
8 Probability 1. Probabilities per dike section 3. Risk Economic Individual 2. Consequences per breach location Group Casualties
9 England: RASP RASP: Risk Assessment for Strategic Planning (Sayers and Meadowcroft, 2005, Hall et al, 2002, Gouldby et al, 2008) Methods under development since 1999 Aim: support risk-based approaches to maximise return on investment Probability of defence failure Standard of protection provided by defence 1.0 Fragility curve Typically assumed true fragility curve 0 0 Severity of load event (after Sayers et al, 2002) Page 9
10 RASP: results and the decisions it supports Applied at national and regional scale since 2002 Results are being used for different purposes: Asset management Long Term Investment Scenarios (LTIS) National Flood Risk Assessment (NaFRA) Thames Estuary November , 2015 Strategy Page 10
11 Comparing VNK and RASP Different context, same concept, some differences in focus Economic risk and Risk to life Level of detail in data & methods Application: futures and options Both have their strengths Page 11
12 Supporting decisions at various levels EU scale? National scale Catchment scale Local scale (Sayers et al, 2004) Level of credibility has to be appropriate for level of decision making Page 12
13 But how credible are the models? In England the credibility of national estimates of risk have been questioned (trigger for FoRUM project to explore current understanding) Validation challenge of national risk models Risk can t be observed As it is a probabilistic combination of a range of possible events and associated consequences Heterogeneity of real flood systems Validating one area doesn t mean the analysis is valid elsewhere Interaction of multiple model components Different components could dominate for different events and in different areas Page 13
14 Traditional validation approaches Comparison with measured data Good practice for components (e.g. hydraulic models) Possible (but challenging) for damage in individual flood events Difficult to translate to risk Comparison with analytical solutions Only possible for idealised cases and components Far removed from complexity of national scale risk models Comparison with other numerical models Benchmarking Useful for assessing trade-off of simplification versus loss of accuracy FoRUM s Validation Framework suggests combination of approaches, at component and whole-system level (Sayers et al, in development) Page 14
15 Validation of RASP FoRUM project compared the observed damages in the Summer 2007 floods with national estimates (~ 3bn) Results: Reasonable match for residential damages, decent for number of residential properties (in this one widespread event) Order of magnitude out for non-residential properties: Errors in the observational data of damage? Method for damage to business to simple? Encouraging, and will help to focus improvements Return periods calculated for fluvial and surface water flooding in 2007 (Sayers et al, 2015) Page 15
16 Validation of VNK2 Strong scrutiny of methods by large group of experts (Expertise Network) and of local models by review & consultation Appropriately credible 1953: flooding patterns, damages and casualties Pictures: HKV, 2004 Page 16
17 Conclusions and Next steps System risk models developed over last 20 years and now being used to support big decisions How credible are they? Risk can t be observed Validation challenge! How credible is credible enough? Appropriate for decision being supported Validation framework: combine component level, damage observation and inter-model comparison Next step: move toward inter-model comparison, e.g. comparing VNK, RASP and other system models for the same system Interreg, Horizon 2020? Page 17
18 Acknowledgements Paul Sayers for UK information and more information on FoRUM Marco Hartman (HKV), Bas Kolen (HKV), Mathijs van Ledden (Royal HaskoningDHV) and Prof. Bas Jonkman (TU Delft) for NL information The following funding has made this work possible: NERC FoRUM (Grant NE/M008851/1) supported the validation of the national scale risk analysis (led by Paul Sayers and Jim Hall) NERC CONVEX programme and research by UKWIR has been synthesized to provide an estimate of change factors for daily extreme rainfalls for all return periods and durations of 1-6 hours (led by Chris Kilsby) UK Climate Change Risk Assessment (Committee on Climate Change) Page 18
19 Picture based on Sayers and Meadowcroft, 2002) Page 19
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