PPI. Current and Future Trends in Retirement Income Provision. Niki Cleal, Director Pensions Policy Institute. 24 February 2011
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1 Current and Future Trends in Retirement Income Provision Niki Cleal, Director Pensions Policy Institute 24 February
2 Coalition Government policies - pensions and older people Policy area State pension State Pension Age / DRA PublicSector Pensions Auto-enrolment Pensions Tax Relief Indexation for Occupational Pensions Accessing private pension income Current Coalition Government policy Will guarantee from April 2011 that pensions will be raised by the higher of earnings, prices(cpi) or 2.5% - triple lock. State Pension Age to rise to 66by 2020 for both men and women. Subsequent increases in SPA to 67 and 68 to be reviewed. DRA to be abolished. Lord Hutton undertaking a fundamental structural review of the public sector pensions. Will work with business and the industry to support auto enrolment/ introduce NEST. Govt committed to raising revenue from restricting pensions tax relief. Restricting the annual allowance from 255k in 2010/11 to 50k in 2011/12. Move to the CPI for up-rating occupational pensions:s2p and public sector pensions will use CPI, private sector may use RPI or CPI where scheme rules allow it. Ending the rules requiring compulsory annuitisation by age 75 Capped Drawdownand MIR.
3 Needs for retirement income Current sources of retirement income and assets Future sources of retirement income and assets Individual outcomes
4 We d like to thank our sponsors... The is grateful for the support of the following sponsors of this project: Sponsorship has been given to help fund the research, and does not necessarily imply agreement with, or support for, the analysis or findings from the project. 3
5 Pensioner spending could vary during retirement as needs and preferences change Possible annual household spending on different categories for pensioner households retiring at 65 in 2008 in current (cash) terms Multi-occupant pensioner household Single pensioner Source: Life Trust, cebr (2008) Life Trust Cost of Retirement Report
6 The real value of different income sources can change during retirement Changes in levels of pension income over time for a single, hypothetical pensioner from ages 65 to 95, in 2010 earnings terms Level annuity S2P BSP Source: calculations Age in years
7 Needs for retirement income Current sources of retirement income and assets Future sources of retirement income and assets Individual outcomes Future Policy
8 Private pensions remain the most popular way of saving for retirement Type of saving used to provide for retirement by people in work 2008 Sample: 3,448 respondents, multiple answers allowed Source: ABI (2008)
9 State and private pensions provide the majority of retirement income The majority of retirement income (60% on average) is from state and private pensions Pensioners also receive income from other savings and assets earnings state benefits
10 Pensioners receive the greatest proportion of their income from state and private pensions Average proportion of total gross weekly income ( 389) from different income sources, for pensioner households in 2007/08 prices Source: DWP (2009) The Pensioners Income Series
11 Pensioners on low incomes receive the majority of their income from state pensions Mean gross weekly income of single pensioners by quintile of the UK net income distribution in prices (AHC) Source: data supplied by DWP
12 Total wealth is not evenly distributed Mean wealth of people age 50 - SPA Total wealth decile Source: Institute for Fiscal Studies analysis of ELSA wave 1, All Age 50 to SPA
13 People are most likely to have financial assets between the ages of 55 and 74 Households by type of saving and investments they hold, by age of household head Source: DWP (2008) Family Resources Survey. United Kingdom
14 95% of people who purchase annuities do so before the age of 70 Percentage of annuitants purchasing annuities at different ages Source: HM Treasury (2006) The Annuities Market
15 Needs for retirement income Current sources of retirement income and assets Future sources of retirement income and assets Individual outcomes
16 People will receive more income from state pensions as a result of the pension reforms Weekly state pension income for a high earning woman, a median earning man and a low earning woman with breaks for caring, reaching SPA in 2033 (2009 earnings terms) Source: Individual Model
17 In future more people are likely to have DC pension savings Private pension reforms and changes in the private pensions market More people receiving retirement income from private pensions More savers in DC pensions, from 5 to 15 million by 2020 A decline in private sector DB, 2.5 million savers to 1.5 million in 2050
18 The number of savers in private sector DC pensions could increase substantially after the reforms Number of people saving in private sector DB and DC pension schemes by 10 year intervals Millions Source: Aggregate Model
19 More people are likely to use the retirement products market in future An increase in DC savers could lead to more people using the annuity and retirement products market The financial profiles of people using the annuity and retirement products market may change
20 Average pension pot sizes may vary over time, as the results of auto-enrolment take effect Pension pot sizes for a median earning man, auto-enrolled in 2012 and retiring at age 65 in 2022, 2032 and 2047
21 Working longer and deferring state and private pensions can increase retirement income Median Earning Man State and private pension income retiring at SPA (66 in 2030) and with one year of work after SPA - minimum pension contributions (2009 earnings terms) 21,000 18,000 15,000 12,000 9,000 Retires at SPA Works 1 year after SPA Desired replacement rate 13,100 in ,600 in ,000 3,
22 Pensioner housing wealth is projected to increase by 40% Projected total pensioner housing wealth. billions in 2009 earnings terms using a range of house price growth factors
23 Needs for income Current sources of retirement income and assets Future sources of retirement income and assets Individual outcomes
24 Median earners may not meet replacement rate from state and private pension income alone Median Earning Man s estate -with DC pension (average & minimum contributions) at SPA in 2009 earnings terms 13,400 14,200
25 Higher earners with DC pensions may not meet replacement rates from pension income alone Higher Earning Woman estate -with DC pension (average & minimum contributions) at SPA in 2009 earnings terms Desired replacement rate 24,000 14,700 18,000
26 Conclusions Future pensioners will all receive more income from state pensions Many pensioners may be unable to achieve desired levels of income from pensions alone Future pensioners may use a variety of income sources and assets, including housing wealth and working longer, to support retirement Proposals on funding care will impact on how future pensioners use income and assets to support themselves
27 Questions? Niki Cleal, Director Pensions Policy Institute February
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