Building an Unconventional Gas Business in Australia:

Transcription

1 Building an Unconventional Gas Business in Australia: AWE Strategy for the Perth Basin, WA DUG Conference, Brisbane, 2013

2 Disclaimer This presentation may contain forward looking statements that are subject to risk factors associated with the oil and gas businesses. It is believed that the expectations reflected in these statements are reasonable but they may be affected by a variety of variables and changes in underlying assumptions which could cause actual results or trends to differ materially, including but not limited to: price fluctuations, actual demand, currency fluctuations, drilling and production results, reserve estimates, loss of market, industry competition, environmental risks, physical risks, legislative, fiscal and regulatory developments, economic and financial market conditions in various countries and regions, political risks, project delay or advancement, approvals and cost estimates. This presentation may also contain non-ifrs measures that are unaudited but are derived from and reconciled to the audited accounts. All references to dollars, cents or $ in this presentation are to Australian currency, unless otherwise stated. 2

3 Talk Outline 1. Basin Setting 2. The AWE Advantage 3. Evaluation Steps: Play Concept to Commercial Development 4. Conclusions 3

4 Perth Basin Unconventional Context Shale Gas resource potentially large but likely to be lower than other basins Tight Gas Sands more immediate commercial target (cf. US experience) AWE Strategy to progressively build a material domestic gas business Scale & Pace driven by: prospectivity commerciality market community expectations environment Basin Formation Risked GIP TCF Technically Recoverable GAS TCF Risked OIP bbbl Technically Recoverable Oil bbbl Cooper REM Maryborough Goodwood/Cherwell Perth Carynginia Kockatea Canning Goldwyer Georgina Arthur Shale Beetaloo Velkerri/Kyalia US Department of Energy Independent Statistics & Analysis, June

5 Geological Setting W Beagle Ridge Dandaragan Trough E Urella Fault 4 km Darling Fault N-S Trending Basin onshore covering c. 50,000 km 2 Tectonic History has 2 periods of Rifting followed by Uplift & Erosion: Early Rift Phase (L. Carboniferous E. Permian) N-S Extension Gondwana Break Up (Jurassic-Cretaceous) - W-E Oblique Extension Present Day Stress Regime is transitional Reverse/Strike-Slip with max horizontal stress in W-E direction. Coomallo Fault Tight Gas & Shale Plays occur in Permian-E.Triassic Sequence Best developed on Beagle Ridge due to optimum Burial Depth, Thickness & Thermal Maturity Top Permian Depth Most of Conventional Gas Production (650 bcf) from same province. 5

6 Unconventional Targets Kockatea Shale < 500m Dongara Sandstone < 100m Carynginia Shale m Irwin River Coal Measures < 300m High Cliff Sandstone < 100m GSWA Record 2003/4 Leads and prospects within tenements of the northern Perth Basin, W.A., 2002 PERMIAN TRIASSIC JURASSIC CRETAC- PERIOD EOUS AP2a Early Late E Middle Late Early Middle Late Early EPOCH STRATIGRAPHY Carnac Fm Parmelia Group Otorowiri Fm RESERVOIR SEAL Yarragadee?? Formation Cadda Formation Cattamarra Coal Measures Eneabba Formation Lesueur Sandstone Woodada Formation Kockatea Arranoo Mbr Shale Bookara Ss. Mbr Dongara Beekeeper Sandstone Formation Carynginia Formation Irwin River Coal Measures High Cliff Sandstone Holmwood Shale Nangetty Formation Wicherina Ss. Mbr basement (undifferentiated) local regional? MAIN SOURCE ROCKS oil gas Gas well Oil well Oil show Gas show, abandoned Oil and gas well HYDROCARBONS PROSPECTS AND LEADS Warro Dandaragan Dandaragan Deep Carnamah Ocean Hill Gingin Brook Gingin, Walyering Eclipse North Eclipse West Mt Horner Yardanogo Erregulla Mt Horner Dongara Wye N. Erregulla Dongara, Hovea Beharra West Erregulla Mt Horner Nutsyia N. Erregulla High Cliff Yardarino, Beharra Sps, Freshwater Pt Mondarra, Woodada, Beharra Sp. North Sundalara Dongara Erregulla Dongara, Mt Bridge Elegans Mt Horner, Cliff Head Oil and gas show, abandoned Cliff Head area Stockyard Figure 5. Stratigraphy and petroleum elements of the northern Perth Basin

7 Perth Basin the AWE Advantage Corybas Extensive Acreage - 3,400 Km 2 in 10 Licences. Basin Dominant Position for Conventional & Unconventional Plays. Conventional Oil & Gas Plays are Mature. Moderate remaining prospectivity. Future Value reliant on Unconventional Tight Gas & Shale Gas. Shale Oil a Secondary Objective. TIGHT GAS & SHALE GAS PLAY FAIRWAY Gas Infrastructure provides mechanism to quickly commercialise. Opportunity for early production to offset development costs. Drover-1 Gas Market & Price are attractive. Community & Workforce familiar with Gas activities & production. Analogue Shale experience via equity in Sugarloaf Project (Eagle Ford, Texas) 7

8 Unconventional Evaluation Steps Step Purpose 1. Regional Studies Play Definition Play Extent Play Ranking License Capture 2. Exploration Core Holes with selective stimulation & testing Net Thickness TOC & Kerogen Type Mineralogy Gas Content & Composition Indicative Permeability 3. 3D Seismic & Microseismic Field Extent Structural Sweet Spots Pilot & Development well placement Measure Stimulated Rock Volume 4. Pilot Production Trial Well & Completion Designs Validate Type Curves for Initial Development Decision 5. Initial or Early Development Demonstrate Technical & Commercial Viability of Full Field Development 8

9 Evaluation Steps AWE Progress Step Progress Purpose Status 1. Regional Studies 75% Play Definition Play Extent Play Ranking License Capture Preliminary Assessment completed. More work required to define potential sweet spots associated with structural, geomechanical or facies enhancement of permeability. 2. Exploration Core Holes with selective stimulation & testing 50% Net Thickness TOC & Kerogen Type Mineralogy Gas Content & Composition Indicative Permeability Drilled: Corybas 1, Senecio 1/2, Arrowsmith 2, Woodada Deep 1 Planned: Corybas 2, Senecio 3, Drover 1, + other exploration prospects 3. 3D Seismic & Microseismic 50% Field Extent Structural Sweet Spots Pilot & Development well placement Measure Stimulated Rock Volume Full Coverage over Northern Hub. Survey planned for Arrowsmith (Southern Hub). Microseismic acquired for Woodada Deep 1, planned for Senecio Pilot Production 10% Trial Well & Completion Designs Validate Type Curves for Initial Development Decision Corybas 1 producing. Arrowsmith 2 extended testing 3Q Initial or Early Development 5% Demonstrate Technical & Commercial Viability of Full Field Development Development Feasibility Studies completed for Corybas & Senecio. 9

10 Tight Gas & Shale Gas Data Base 100 historical wells to provide control on stratigraphy, depth and thickness of key formations. c. 5 wells have extensive core for Tight Gas reservoir description Shale core coverage more limited although Woodada Deep 1, Redback 2 & Arrowsmith 2 recently drilled for shale evaluation. Northern area has dense 2D seismic coverage (~5,000km) with extensive 3D surveys (766km 2 ) over main play trend Southern area only has sparse 2D of varying vintages. Test data available in the following wells: Senecio 2 Corybas 1 Woodada Deep 1 Arrowsmith 2 Pilot Production data from Corybas 1 & planned for Arrowsmith 2 Corybas Senecio 2 Redback 2 Arrowsmith 2 Woodada Deep Drover-1 10

11 Unconventional Project Test Data Project Interval Max Flow Rate mmscf/d Senecio (22 August 2012) Corybas 1 Irwin River Coal Measures 4.5 Senecio 2 Dongara Sandstone 1.35 Woodada Deep 1 Carynginia Shale RTSM Kockatea Shale 0.4 Arrowsmith-2, HCSS Flare (31 July 2012) Arrowsmith 2 Carynginia Shale 0.5 Irwin River Coal Measures not measured High Cliff Sandstone 0.8 COPYRIGHT 2013 All Rights Reserved - Norwest Energy NL Encouraging initial test results (all vertical) from multiple Tight Gas Sand & Shale Gas zones 11

12 Pilot Production is Critical DSTs (pre & post-stimulation) useful for permeability & composition but difficult to extrapolate to full field performance. Extended testing & pilot production required: Actual Forecast Vertical Pilot Production Corybas 1 optimum well & completion designs long term flow rates drainage efficiency. Vertical to Horiz Extrapolation Challenge to extrapolate vertical test or pilots to deviated or horizontal well performance. Vertical vs Horizontal Development decision dependent on: Eg Marcellus Shale reservoir thickness & continuity single or multiple objectives stimulated rock volume - rock properties + stress + natural fractures land access cost Forecast Horizontal Type Curves operability 12

13 North & South Gas Hubs Hub AWE Owned Facility Constructed Historical Throughput Status Northern Dongara mmscf/d Online Xyris mmscf/d Care & Maintenance Southern Woodada mmscf/d Care & Maintenance Parmelia Gas Pipeline 450km to Perth Utilise existing Infra-structure for Early Production 13

14 Exploration to Development Planning Detailed planning to take opportunities from Exploration to Development. Multi-stage programs prepared to quantify & de-risk specific projects. Clear GO/STOP points to control investment decisions. Continuous evaluation & ranking to prioritise potential sweet spots. Modelling a key tool for selection of optimum well & completion designs Achieve balance between subsurface, facilities & market drivers. Early development planning to guide appraisal strategy & manage land access. Pro-active regulator & community engagement to facilitate approvals & build social license to operate.

15 Conclusions AWE has ambitions to build a material domestic gas business from Unconventional Plays in the Perth Basin A clear Exploration to Development Plan is in place to guide key investment decisions for specific projects Strategy involves a progression from low risk Tight Gas to higher risk Shale Gas Looking to utilise existing Infra-structure for Early Production & Payback Expected Program is realistic with respect to Prospectivity, Commerciality, Community Expectations & Environmental Impact Looking for a Strategic Partner with Unconventional Technology Expertise 15