2010 WORLD POPULATION DATA SHEET Fewer and Fewer Workers to Support Aging Population PRESENTATIONS BY CARL HAUB, JAMES GRIBBLE, AND LINDA JACOBSEN JULY 2010 POPULATION REFERENCE BUREAU www.prb.org
WORLD POPULATION 1900 1.6 Billion
WORLD POPULATION 2000 6.1 Billion
Global Population Growth Is Almost Entirely Concentrated in the World's Poorer Countries. Number of People Billions World 9 Population (in Billions): 1950-2050 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 Developing Countries 1 Developed Countries 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Source: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision.
World Population: Number of Years to Reach Each Billion First All of Human History ca. 1800 Second 130 years (1930) Third 30 years (1960) Fourth 14 years (1974) Fifth 13 years (1987) Sixth 12 years (1999) Seventh 12 years (2011) Eighth 13 years (2024)? Sources: Population Reference Bureau estimates and projections and United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision.
Age 80+ The Aging Population of Developed Countries Guarantees Little Population Growth and Aging. 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 Males Females 300 200 100 00 100 200 300 Millions Source: UN Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision (medium variant), 2010 estimates.
Age Developing Countries Youthfulness Guarantees Long-Term Population Growth. 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 Males Females 300 200 100 00 100 200 300 Millions Source: UN Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision (medium variant), 2010 estimates.
Asia and Africa Will Account For Nearly All Population Growth. Millions 6,000 5,424 5,000 4,000 4,157 2010 2050 3,000 2,000 2,084 1,000 1,030 585 729 344 471 739 720 0 Asia Africa Latin America/Carib. North America Europe Source: Population Reference Bureau, 2010 World Population Data Sheet.
The Demographic Divide The Example of Ethiopia and Germany ETHIOPIA GERMANY Population 2010 85 million 82 million Population 2050 (projected) 174 million 72 million Lifetime Births per Woman 5.4 1.4 Annual Number of Births 3,300,000 650,000 Infant Deaths per 1,000 Births 77 3.5 Annual Number of Infant Deaths 250,000 2,300 Life Expectancy at Birth 55 80 Percent of Population Below Age 15 44 14 Percent of Population Age 65+ 3 20 Elderly Support Ratio, 2010 17 3 Source: Population Reference Bureau, 2010 World Population Data Sheet.
How Many Children Do Women Say Is Ideal? 4 3 2.9 2.8 2.9 2.9 3.2 3.1 2.9 2.8 3.3 3.4 3.2 3.3 3.2 2 1 0 1988 1995 2005 2008 1987 1991 1997 2007 1991 1996 1999 2002 2007 Egypt Indonesia Dominican Republic TFR: 3.0 TFR: 2.6 TFR: 2.4 Source: Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS).
How Many Children Do Women Say Is Ideal? 9 8.5 8.5 9.1 8 7 6 5 6.8 5.6 5.1 5.3 6.2 5.7 5.1 5.1 4 3 2 1 0 1988-89 1995 2000-01 2006 1992 1996 2001-02 2007 1992 1998 2006 Uganda Zambia Niger TFR: 6.5 TFR: 6.2 TFR: 7.1 Source: Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS).
Why Is Future World Population Growth Uncertain? Slow or very little birth rate decline in sub-saharan Africa. Considerable doubt over reaching 2.1 children in major states of India with half of the country s population. Possible relaxation of China s one-child policy within 10 years. Lack of commitment in many sub-saharan African countries to population. Social/cultural resistance to only two or fewer children. Preference for sons. Fewer funds for foreign aid due to stressed economies. Reduced willingness to provide foreign aid due to concerns about corruption.
The Number of People of Typical Working Age (15-64) per Person of Retirement Age (65+) Will Decrease. Elderly Support Ratio 16 15.2 14 12 10 8 8.2 Developed countries Developing countries 6 4 2 4.4 2.2 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Source: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision.
TOTAL DEPENDENCY RATIO: The Examples of France and Bangladesh
Globally, Total Dependency Has Been Decreasing and Is Starting to Increase. Total Dependency Ratio 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Total dependency ratio: the number of persons under age 15 and over age 65 divided by the number of persons ages 16-64. Source: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision.
The Increase Is Due to Increasing Old-Age Dependency Worldwide. Dependency Ratios 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 Old-age dependency 30 20 10 Child dependency 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Source: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision.
Bangladesh and France Have Similar Total Dependency Ratios. 100 80 60 40 20 53.4 54.7 0 Bangladesh France Bangladesh France Source: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision.
But Dependency Is Different in Each Country. 100 80 53.4 54.7 60 40 20 0 Old age: 6 Child: 47.4 Bangladesh Old age: 26.2 Child: 28.4 France Child Old age Source: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision.
In Bangladesh, Total Dependency Has Been Dominated by a Young Population. Dependency Ratios 100 80 60 40 Old-age dependency 20 Child dependency 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Source: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision.
In France, Old-Age Dependency Dominates Total Dependency Ratio. Dependency Ratios 100 80 60 Old-age dependency 40 20 Child dependency 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Source: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision.
ELDERLY SUPPORT RATIO: The Example of the United States
In the U.S., the Number of People Ages 65 and Older Will More Than Double By 2050. Number of People Ages 65+ Millions 120 89 100 80 60 40 40 65+ 20 19 6 2 0 85+ 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2009 2030 2050 Source: Population Reference Bureau, analysis of data from U.S. Census Bureau.
By 2050, One in Five Americans Will Be Ages 65 and Older. Percent of U.S. Population in Selected Age Groups: 1970-2050 100% 80% 10 13 19 20 60% 56 63 57 57 40% 20% 34 24 24 23 0% 1970 2009 2030 2050 Under age 18 Ages 18 to 64 Ages 65 and older Source: Population Reference Bureau, analysis of data from U.S. Census Bureau.
By 2030, There Will Only Be Three Working-Age Adults For Every Person Age 65 or Older. Elderly Support Ratio: Number of persons ages 18-64 per person ages 65+ 16 14 13.6 12 10 8 6 6.0 5.0 4.9 4 2 3.0 2.8 0 1900 1960 2000 2009 2030 2050 Source: Population Reference Bureau, analysis of data from U.S. Census Bureau.
In One in Six U.S. Counties, the Share of the Population Ages 65+ is Already 20 Percent. Source: Population Reference Bureau, analysis of data from U.S. Census Bureau.
Almost One in Three U.S. Counties Already Has An Elderly Support Ratio of 3 or Less. Source: Population Reference Bureau, analysis of data from U.S. Census Bureau.
The Future Characteristics of the Older Population Are Important for Policy Decisions. Health status. Employment status. Living arrangements. Kinship networks.
Changes in Family Patterns May Result in Less Availability of Family Caregivers in U.S. High rates of divorce. Increasing cohabitation and nonmarital childbearing. Blended families.
Entitlement Programs Have Helped to Reduce Poverty Among the Older Population. Percent Living in Poverty 30 25 25% Under age 18 20 19% 15 16% 10 Ages 65 and over 10% 5 0 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Surveys.
Social Security and Medicare Expenditures in U.S. Are Projected to Reach 15% of GDP by 2050. Social Security and Medicare Expenditures as a Percent of GDP 10% 9% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% Social Security 6% 4% 3% 2% 1% 3% 1% Medicare 0% 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Source: A Summary of the 2009 Annual Social Security and Medicare Trust Fund Reports.
The Costs of An Aging Population May Force Difficult Trade-Offs in Spending Priorities. Children will still outnumber the older population through 2050. The gap in poverty rates between children and the older population has been increasing. Will escalating costs of Social Security and Medicare force cutbacks in programs that improve the well-being of children?