Population and Development in Jamaica with reference to the MDGS Presenter Mr. Easton Williams Population Unit Planning Institute of Jamaica June 14, 2009 World Population Day
General Perspectives on Population and Development Countries are poor because their populations are growing too rapidly (high fertility) Policy Response: Family Planning is the solution
General Perspectives Countries are poor because they are underdeveloped Policy Response: Development is the solution (Popular slogan, Development is the best contraceptive )
General Perspectives Countries are poor because they are underdeveloped and their population is growing too rapidly Policy Response: Implement policies for development and reduce population growth
Demographic Transition Model Provides a general framework for analyzing population change over time. Developed countries have moved from high birth and deaths rates to low birth and death rates. Developing countries are expected to make the same transition.
Developed Countries Demographic Transition Trends 1850-1950 1950 Rates 45.0 40.0 35.0 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 40 35 25 15 1850s 1900s 1950s Periods 12 10 CBR CDR
Demographic Transition Model Developing Countries In its simplest form, the model posits that poor countries will transit the following board stages: (a) From high births rates and death rates with low population growth and low development (b) Through declining birth and death rates with high population growth and moderate development (c) To low birth and death rates with low population growth and developed country status.
Jamaica s s Demographic Transition 45.0 40.0 35.0 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 1900 1905 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Crude Birth Rate Crude Death Rate Source: Demographic Statistics, STATIN, various years
Jamaica s s Demographic Transition Jamaica is currently at an intermediate stage in its demographic transition Population growth has been below 1.0 per cent since 1998 Population growth rate is influenced by declining natural increase and high external migration. Fertility, Mortality rates and migration influence the age structure of the population
Population Structure Population structure is usually classified into three main groups: Child Population (0-14 yrs) Working Age Population (15-64 yrs) Dependent Elderly Population (65+) Jamaica population structure is changing Changes being impacted mainly by lower fertility and mortality rates
Characteristics of a Population in Transition The child population is decreasing The working age and elderly population are increasing Mean household size is declining Total age dependency ratio is declining The increase in the working age population creates a demographic bonus which is a window of opportunity for economic development.
Total Population of Jamaica Total Population 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 0 1970 1991 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045 Years Total Population Source: Population Census, various years and Demographic Statistics (STATIN)
Child Population of Jamaica 1970-2050 900,000 800,000 Child Population 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 1970 1982 1991 2001 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Years 0-14 Age Group Source: Population Census, various years and Demographic Statistics (STATIN)
Elderly Population of Jamaica 1970-2050 Dependent Elderly Population 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 1970 1982 1991 2001 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Years 65+ Source: Population Census, various years and Demographic Statistics (STATIN)
Working A ge Population Working Age Population of Jamaica 1970-2050 2,000,000 1,800,000 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 0 1970 1991 2005 2015 2025 Years 15-64 2035 2045 Source: Population Census, various years and Demographic Statistics (STATIN)
3,500,000 Age Structural Transition of Population, Jamaica 1970-2050 Number of Persons 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 0 1970 1982 1991 2001 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Years C hild Population Dependent Ederly Working Age Total Population Source: Population Census, various years and Demographic Statistics (STATIN)
Population Pyramid, 2001 2001 Male 2001 Female 75+ 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 -8-6 -4-2 0 2 4 6 8
Population Pyramid, 2020 2020 Male 2020 Female 75+ 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 -5-4 -3-2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5
Population Pyramid, 2050 Male Female 75+ 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 -5-4 -3-2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5
Population and the MDGs with focus on Economic Growth, Poverty and Health
(1) Population and Economic Growth Does population growth undermines economic growth in Jamaica?
Population and Economic Growth The debate at the global level is ongoing. Prior to the 1990s, data for some developing countries did not support the general position that high population growth correlates with low economic growth. However the global data, post 1990s, correlates good with high population growth and low economic growth. Jamaica s experience, post 1990s, would suggest that population growth is not a real problem hindering economic growth.
Population and Economic Growth Real GDP per capita and Population Growth Rate (1970-2007) Growth Rates 13.0 12.0 11.0 10.0 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0-1.0-2.0-3.0-4.0-5.0-6.0-7.0-8.0-9.0 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 Per Capita Real GDP Grow th Rate Population Grow th Rate Source: STATIN
2) Population and Poverty Does population growth and poverty correlates? MDG Goal: Eradicate Poverty and extreme hunger
Population and Poverty Prevalence of Absolute Poverty Despite the low levels of real GDP growth experienced over the last three decades, Jamaica has still managed to reduce the prevalence of absolute poverty. The eradication of absolute poverty is the first goals of the list of MDGs. Target is to half the proportion of people living below the poverty line between 1990 and 2015
Population and Poverty Prevalence of Absolute Poverty Jamaica has achieved this target since 2005 In 1990 the population living below the poverty line was estimated at 28.4%. In 2007 this was reduced to 9.8%.
% Prevalence of Poverty Population and Poverty Absolute Poverty Prevalence Rates, 1990-2008 50.0 45.0 40.0 35.0 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 Years Source: Jamaica Survey of Living conditions, 2000, 2007 Jamaica
Population and Poverty Prevalence of Absolute Poverty by Regions, 1990-2008 % Prevalence of Poverty 70.0 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 1990 1991 Source: Jamaica Survey of Living conditions, 2000, 2007 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 Years 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 KMA Other Towns Jamaica Rural Areas 2006 2007
(3)Fertility and Contraceptive Prevalence MDG Target: Universal access to reproductive health
Fertility and Contraception Fertility Jamaica fertility rate has been declining from as early as the late 1960s. Declining fertility rates are being impacted by increasing access to reproductive health services and other factors including education and labour force participation Years Rates 1975 4.5 1983 3.5 1989 2.9 1990 2.8 1993 3.0 1997 2.8 2002 2.5 2010 2.2 p 2015 2.1 p Source: Demographic statistics, STATIN, various years
Fertility and Contraception Fertility Trends, 1975-2015 Women 15-49 Years Births per 1000 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 1975 1983 1989 1990 1993 1997 2002 2010 2015 Years Source: Reproductive Health Survey, NFPB
Fertility and Contraception Adolescent Fertility Rates, 1989-2002 120 100 Births per 1000 80 60 40 20 0 102 107 112 79 1989 1993 1997 2002 Years Source: Reproductive Health Survey, NFPB
Fertility and Contraception One of the targets of MDGs # 5: Universal Access to reproductive health Status of Target: On Track Indicators: a. Contraceptive Prevalence Rate b. Unmet needs for family planning
Fertility and Contraception Contraceptive Prevalence Universal knowledge of at least one modern method of contraception. Contraceptive prevalence rate of near 70% of women, 15-49, in union. Unmet need for family planning declined to under 10% in 2002 from 16% in 1990.
Fertility and Contraception Contraceptive Prevalence Rate and Unmet Family Planning, 1989-2002 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1989 1993 1997 2002 CPR Source: RHS, National Family Planning Board Unmet Needs
(4)Infant, Child and Maternal Health MDG Goal: Goal #4: Reduce Child Mortality Goal #5: Improve Maternal Health
Infant, Child and Maternal Health Infant Mortality The reduction of Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) is another goal of the MDGs Target to reduce IMR by two-thirds by 2015 IMR was at 24.5 in 1990 and 22.1 in 2000
Infant, Child and Maternal Health Infant Mortality Annual rate of decline between 1990 and 2000 was 1.0%. Annual rate of decline needs to be 6.5% to meet the MDG target by 2015 Jamaica is far behind
Infant, Child and Maternal Health Infant Mortality Rates 25 20 RATES 15 10 24.4 22.05 1990 2000 5 8.1 2015 0 1990 2000 2015 YEAR Source: Demographic Statistics, STATIN, selected years
Infant, Child and Maternal Health Child Mortality The reduction of Under-five mortality is another goal of the MDG Target includes reducing under-five mortality rate (U5MR) by two-thirds by 2015
Infant, Child and Maternal Health Child Mortality The annual rate of decline between 1990 and 2000 was 1.3% To achieve target however, the annual rate of decline has to be 5.1% Jamaica is far behind
Infant, Child and Maternal Health Child Mortality Rate 30.0 25.0 RATES 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 29.5 25.9 11.8 1990 2000 2015 0.0 1990 2000 2015 YEAR Source: Demographic Statistics, STATIN, selected years
Infant, Child and Maternal Health Maternal Mortality The reduction of Maternal Mortality is another goal of the MDGs Target is to reduce Maternal Mortality to two-thirds its 1990 level by 2015
Infant, Child and Maternal Health Maternal Mortality Lack of up-to-date data on MMR Data for 1986-1987, shows that MMR is 120/100,000. More recent data shows MMR at only 94.8/100,000 in 2000 To achieve this MDG target, MMR must be reduced to 30/100,000 by 2015
Infant, Child and Maternal Health Maternal Mortality Annual rate of decline between 1990 and 2000 was 2.3% In order to achieve the target, annual rate of decline has to be 7.4%. Jamaica is far behind.
Summary -Jamaica s s Progress in the MDGs Goal 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger (ACHIEVED) Goal 2: Achieve Universal Primary Education (ACHIEVED) Goal 3:Promote gender equality and empower women (LAGGING) Goal 4: Reduce Child Mortality (FAR BEHIND)
Summary- Jamaica s s Progress in the MDGs Goal 5: Improve Maternal Health (FAR BEHIND) Goal 6: Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other disease (ON TRACK) Goal 7:Ensure environmental sustainability (LAGGING) Goal 8:Develop a global partnership for development