Critical Assets and Extreme Weather Process & Lessons

Advertisement


Advertisement
Similar documents
Climate Projections for Transportation Infrastructure Planning, Operations & Maintenance, and Design

Butch Wlaschin P.E. Director, Office of Asset Management, Pavements, and Construction FHWA

Asset Management Plan

AASHTO 2015 EXTREME WEATHER SESSIONS

Screening Transportation Assets for Vulnerability

Tools from the US EPA s Climate Ready Water Utilities Initiative (CRWU) EPA Region 3 Conference Extreme Weather Events: Adapt, Mitigate, and Survive

Climate Futures Evaluation and Synthesis Tool

Argonne National Laboratory

Request for Proposal. Request for Proposal for GreenLink Bellingham Technical Analysis and Community Engagement, Bellingham, WA

American Public Works Association Asset Management Task Force, 1998

Geospatial Software Solutions for the Environment and Natural Resources

Colorado Natural Heritage Program

THE STRATEGIC PLAN OF THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER

Chapter 5 RISK MANAGEMENT ANALYSIS CHAPTER 5 RISK MANAGEMENT ANALYSIS PAGE 49

ROSE CREEK WATERSHED HYDROLOGIC, HYDRAULIC, SEDIMENT TRANSPORT, AND GEOMORPHIC ANALYSES TASK 1 EXISTING DATA AND INFORMATION SUMMARY REPORT BACKGROUND

Integrating Extreme Weather Risk into Transportation Asset Management

Asset Management Highway Division Plan

Introduction to the Climate Resilience Evaluation & Awareness Tool

Caltrans - Asset Management Implementation. March 2015

Oregon. Climate Change Adaptation Framework

Submission by the United States of America to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change Communication of U.S. Adaptation Priorities May 29, 2015

FINAL REPORT ON DOT WORKSHOP, Integrating Stream Restoration Principles & Transportation Maintenance

Wetlands and Climate Change: Considerations for Wetland Program Managers

Co-creation progress update and an invitation to respond. Overview of ideas from co-creation activities towards a Climate Ready UK...

The National Inventory and Monitoring Application Center and Forest Plan Monitoring and Evaluation

Pima Regional Remote Sensing Program


Climate Change. Lauma M. Jurkevics - DWR, Southern Region Senior Environmental Scientist

Project Work Plan Template

New Mexico DOT Transportation Asset Management Implementation Plan. final plan

white paper FHWA Asset Management Position Paper Office of Asset Management Federal Highway Administration Cambridge Systematics, Inc.

The Indiana Experience

David R. Vallee Hydrologist-in-Charge NOAA/NWS Northeast River Forecast Center. Providence Street West Warwick, RI at 1030 am Wednesday 3/31/10

Risk and vulnerability assessment of the build environment in a dynamic changing society

Stormwater Management in a Changing Climate: Current Initiatives at TRCA

Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Preliminary Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRMs) and Preliminary Flood Insurance Study (FIS) for New York City

COMPREHENSIVE PLAN SECTION B, ELEMENT 4 WATER RESOURCES. April 20, 2010 EXHIBIT 1

Preliminary advances in Climate Risk Management in China Meteorological Administration

Climate Ready Tools & Resources

MAP-21 Data Assessment Workshop. August 24, 2015

Stephen Gaj. Martin Kidner State Planning Engineer Wyoming DOT

10. Infrastructure and the Built Environment

Oregon Pre-Disaster Mitigation Program Plan Update Training Manual

Project Theory-Climate Change and Traditional Ecological Knowledge Adaption in the Klamath Basin

Arizona s Large Fires Suppression vs. Restoration. WESTCAS Fall 2011 Meeting Bruce Hallin Manager, Water Rights and Contracts October 27, 2011

Small Dam Hazard Assessment Inventory

In the Wake of Hurricane Sandy: Creating a More Resilient Regional Transportation System in New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut

TRANSPORTATION ASSET MANAGEMENT

Presentation Program Outline

Increasing water availability through juniper control.

THE SECRETARY OF THE INTERIOR WASHINGTON

Graduate School of Disaster Prevention Kangwon National University.

The National Integrated Drought Information System. The NIDIS Implementation Team

Chapter 2 ASSET MANAGEMENT PLANNING AND PROGRAMMING FRAMEWORK CHAPTER 2 ASSET MANAGEMENT PLANNING AND PROGRAMMING FRAMEWORK PAGE 11

Transportation Asset Management Plan

Karuk Tribe Integrating Traditional Ecological Knowledge within Natural Resource Management

Integrating Landscape Restoration and CWPP

Montana Business Process to Link Planning Studies and NEPA/MEPA Reviews

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS FLOOD DAMAGE REDUCTION. Lower Carmel River Floodplain Restoration and Enhancement Project

Cross Asset Management Revamped Revisiting Asset Manager NT and PT Presented by : Jose Aldayuz, PE IHEEP Conference New Orleans

Project Title: Implementing the Hydroclimatic Index in Short- and Long- Term Drought Forecasting within the Colorado River Basin

THE NAIROBI WORK PROGRAMME ON IMPACTS, VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE UNFCCC THE NINE WORK AREAS OF THE NAIROBI WORK PROGRAMME

May 29, Ongoing Flood Damages to County Federal-aid Routes

Climate Change on the Prairie:

Selecting members of the QUMP perturbed-physics ensemble for use with PRECIS

Guidance and Requirements for. NCCWSC/CSC Data Management Plans

It s hard to avoid the word green these days.

Maintenance Management and Asset Management

Re-plumbing the Chesapeake Watershed: Improving roadside ditch management to meet TMDL Goals

Healthy Forests Resilient Water Supply Vibrant Economy. Ecological Restoration Institute

Appendix B REFERENCES

Local Steps Toward California s Watershed Program

Flash Flood Science. Chapter 2. What Is in This Chapter? Flash Flood Processes

Traffic Signal Asset Management. Edward Fok USDOT/FHWA Resource Center

Climate Change Long Term Trends and their Implications for Emergency Management August 2011

Indiana Office of Community and Rural Affairs. Disaster Recovery and Mitigation Planning Ft. Worth, Texas February 15, 2012

Appendix C: Summary of Adaptive Management Techniques

SOUTH EAST EUROPE TRANSNATIONAL CO-OPERATION PROGRAMME

STAFF REPORT TO COMMITTEE OF THE WHOLE

Vulnerability Assessment of New England Streams: Developing a Monitoring Network to Detect Climate Change Effects

WASHINGTON STATE DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION SUMMARY OF INVENTORY FINDINGS:

Asset Management for MAP-21. Gary Lasham, P.E. Jonathan Pollack

Flood Plain Reclamation to Enhance Resiliency Conserving Land in Urban New Jersey

Climate Adaptation Overview. City of Chicago Rahm Emanuel, Mayor

CALIFORNIA OCEAN PROTECTION COUNCIL. Staff Recommendation March 11, 2011 STATEWIDE SCIENCE INTEGRATION AND MARINE PROTECTED AREA MONITORING PROGRAMS

NOAA s National Climatic Data Center

SECTOR ASSESSMENT (SUMMARY): CLIMATE CHANGE. 1. Sector Performance, Problems, and Opportunities

Flood Risk Management

Flood Risk Management

GIS Initiative: Developing an atmospheric data model for GIS. Olga Wilhelmi (ESIG), Jennifer Boehnert (RAP/ESIG) and Terri Betancourt (RAP)

Los Angeles Regional Collaborative For Climate Action & Sustainability CHARTER PREAMBLE

FLOOD PROTECTION AND ECOSYSTEM SERVICES IN THE CHEHALIS RIVER BASIN. May Prepared by. for the by Earth Economics

HAZUS th Annual Conference

Origins and causes of river basin sediment degradation and available remediation and mitigation options. Feedback from the Riskbase workshop

CITY UTILITIES DESIGN STANDARDS MANUAL

Chapter 4 ASSET INVENTORY AND CONDITION CHAPTER 4 ASSET INVENTORY AND CONDITION PAGE 33

Transportation Asset Management Today: An Evaluation of an Emerging Virtual Community of Practice

Risk-Based Asset Management Plan. Risk-Based Asset. Management Plan

FY04 ANNUAL ACCOMPLISHMENTS/ FY05 WORK PLAN SFAN Inventory and Monitoring Program

(This Page Intentionally Left Blank)

Advertisement
Transcription:

Critical Assets and Extreme Weather Process & Lessons Steven Olmsted Intermodal Transportation Division Arizona Department of Transportation 2014 Transportation Asset Management Conference April 28-30, 2014

Arizona Asset Universe Arizona 140,000 maintenance lane miles 7,800 bridges 1 International border ADOT 30,000 maintenance lane miles connecting those 140,000 4,700 bridges 10 maintenance and construction districts 1,500 facility buildings Spread over 114,000 square miles Our assets operate from sea level to 8,000 feet Temperatures below 0 F to over 120 F 2

Extreme Weather Process Identification ADOT s 2012 CAFR reflects $19.3b in book value/capital assets. Replacement costs of those assets would be multiple times that in today s dollars. Current drought event in the Southwestern United States is ranked as one of the top five (5) strongest historically. Williams, Park A. et al. 2012 Los Alamos Labs Current national drought has contributed to over $30b in damages and affected over 80% of the Nation s 3,143 counties. Smith, Adam B. and Richard W. Katz. 2013 NOAA ADOT assets are vulnerable to increased surface temperatures, sudden increased precipitation, wildfire induced floods and drought-related dust storms. 3

Impacts

Impacts

Impacts

Extreme Weather Process Identification ADOT Mission To provide a safe, efficient, cost-effective transportation system. Transportation Asset Management A strategic and systematic process of operating, maintaining and improving... engineering and economic analysis centric... quality information... to achieve and sustain a desired level... over the lifecycle of the asset... At MPC. (23 U.S.C. 101(a)(2), MAP-21 1103 Each State is required to develop a risk-based asset management plan for the NHS. (23 U.S.C. 119(e)(1), MAP-21 1106) 7

Extreme Weather Process Identification Recommended and logical to include all infrastructure assets within the highway right-of-way in the Transportation Asset Management Plan (TAMP). Initial eight (8) recommended sections of detail for a TAMP were put forth by FHWA early 2013. FHWA / ADOT / MAP 21 TAMP development activities It was identified that extreme weather was a risk-based activity to further examine and begin the steps of addressing at the enterprise level, project level and within the TAMP programmatic and system risk context. 8

Extreme Weather Process Identification 2012 Preliminary Study of Climate Adaptation for the Statewide Transportation System in Arizona FHWA-AZ-13-696 One of our goals was to move beyond a preliminary assessment and find ways to bring its lessons learned to the forefront Integrating Extreme Weather Risk into Transportation Asset Management AASHTO - Mike Myers et al Climate Change & Extreme Weather Vulnerability Assessment Framework FHWA 9

Framework

Risk-based Approach 2013 ADOT moved to tap into the national dialogue on adaptation, peer exchanges, technical expertise, potential funding Risk-Based Adaptation Frameworks... A Synthesis of Practice TRB Transportation Research Circular E-C181 National Symposium: Impacts of Extreme Weather Events on Transportation Washington D.C. Jennifer Toth - ADOT s State Engineer State Engineer & Deputy Director for Transportation measurably increases motorist safety initiatives http://www.pullasidestayalive.org/ 11

Extreme Weather Risk-based Approach $250,000 FHWA/ADOT pilot effort to assess the vulnerability of critical infrastructure to extreme weather for the major Arizona highway corridor (I-19, I-10, and I-17 Nogales to Flagstaff) Objectives Integrate infrastructure data, stakeholder input, reasonable defensible long-term climate models Contribute to the national adaptation process and enhance the FHWA Vulnerability Assessment Framework Develop risk models for multiple ecoregions / ecosystems Develop joint agency adaptation strategies 12

FHWA Pilot Project Tasks Initial data gathering (Fall 2013) Scientific Stakeholder Meeting (March 2014) CMIP Processing (May 2014) Criticality Assessment ( March June 2014) Vulnerability Assessment Workshops (June 2014) Project Completion & Implementation Plan (Sept 2014)

CMIP Processing Dynamics ADOT began the CMIP processing effort in April 2014 CMIP tool data selection, formatting and processing initially looked as though ADOT didn t consider the needed man hours - far beyond what was budgeted in the grant proposal due to the amount of grids associated with our corridor study It became clear that ADOT needed to undertake a data reading and restructuring effort to fit the mechanics of downloading and downscaling - Customized script developed Going through the process of stretching out the native data to gain appropriate extreme value distributions was a solid lessons learned

Processing CMIP5 Climate Data Original Approach: Use FHWA CMIP Processing tool. BUT, processing downscaled CMIP5 daily climate projections at high spatial resolution over large study area would be extremely labor intensive. Modified approach: Developed custom script to batch process and map CMIP downloads Tool aggregates data into transportation-relevant statistics (including those from original CMIP Processing Tool) Additionally fits generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions for extreme rainfall events (1% and 2% chance) Image credit: Cambridge Systematics

FHWA Pilot Project Tribes Participation Other Stakeholders We envisioned participation from interested tribes from the beginning of our pilot project. We are now entering the Regional Workshop phase of our project. Our goal is to garner participation from the Tribes through the Institute for Tribal Environmental Professionals. ITEP is housed at Northern Arizona University in the College of Engineering, Forestry & Natural Sciences. Our project team identified ITEP as the best way to cultivate interest through their statewide tribal contacts.

FHWA Pilot Project Data Sets Transportation Infrastructure Assets (ADOT) Feature Inventory System Bridge Rating System Highway Performance Monitoring System Culvert capacity data Roadside vegetation, stabilization, habitat Climate data and models Land cover Hydrological modeling CMIP Dust storm models Criticality Economic importance Transportation alternatives

Lessons Learned More confidence in climate temperature projections than in the precipitation projections need to focus on extrapolating historical precipitation data for now Precipitation seasonality modeling difficult ADWR CMIP processing experience had a host of lessons learned Determining appropriate Representative Concentration Pathways ADOT primarily concerned with extreme impacts Natural climate variability representation what metrics to use currently looking at climatology, atmospheric variability, surface temps, historic precipitation data Address bias implications for the precipitation data but also Pacific sea surface temps. (i.e. ENSO) 18

Lessons Learned Gather something more than just 24-hr maximum precipitation event numbers scale up to address erosion, sediment, scour, run-off, flooding, mad-made structures Internal guidelines development to allow implementation into construction contracts regarding this material - specifically the higher risk drainage structures and system pinch points ADOT effort addresses unique component of Eco-regions and biotic communities impacts as our corridor study covers about sea level to 6000 Currently looking at 3 Eco-regions and 8 biotic communities 5 of which intersect our corridor study Watershed not in this assessment but a large USGS/DOT partnering project under development 19

Risk-based Approach - Next Steps The challenge Continue considering the balance between predictable asset deterioration curves, and, the sudden and unpredictable nature of extreme weather events and long term climate trends. Develop asset subsets that reflect a true picture Identify and evaluate relevant asset/maintenance datasets Assess availability and accuracy of spatial information on assets Collect data that is necessary to scope and objectives Engage local experts on data gaps Develop clear data management strategy 20

Current Contributing Projects Completion of FHWA Extreme Weather Pilot Project 2014 FHWA INVEST Round 1 2014 Further connectivity projects ADOT s FIS and TAMP 2015 FHWA INVEST Round 2 2015 ADOT / USGS Partnering Proposal - Develop customized GIS/ data analytics where USGS footprint/mission intersect with ADOT s infrastructure footprint/mission. Especially as they relate to incidents of stormwater, flooding, forest fires - flows, debris, sediment, roadside. 2014 / 2015 21

Future Considerations ADOT - AASHTO TERI Database Proposal 884 Integrating Climate Change and Extreme Weather into Transportation Asset Management Plans Proposed for NCHRP 25-25 Advanced Economic & Engineering Considerations VOLPE Risk Based Framework Subset Analytics develop true picture design mechanisms that account for age, demand level, maintenance continuums, storm impacts 22

Future Considerations Sequencing and Cascading effects Oak Ridge NL and DoE Implementation pathway toward systematized collection NCHRP Report 753 A Pre-Event Recovery Planning Guide for Transportation NCHRP Report 750 Climate Change, Extreme Weather Events, and the Highway System 23

Questions? Questions Steven Olmsted Intermodal Transportation Division Arizona Department of Transportation solmsted@azdot.gov 24