# JUST SIT BACK AND LET THE GIRTH MODEL MAKE MONEY FOR YOU. Elham Negahdary

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2 Girth Model 2 The rule is simple: when the shorter of the two moving averages crosses over the longer of the two moving averages, a buy signal is generated. Conversely, when the longer of the two moving averages crosses over the shorter of the two moving averages, a sell signal is generated. Because we are day trading the EUR/USD, we use an even shorter EMA against a short EMA: the 10-period against the 20-period EMA. The length of the moving average chosen should fit the time cycle traded [3]. When the 10-period EMA is above the 20-period EMA, we buy the EUR/USD (10 > 20 EMA). When the 20-period EMA is above the 10-period EMA, we sell the EUR/USD (20 > 10 EMA). John Murphy, author of the technical trading bible [5], linked cycles and moving averages: There appears to be a definite relationship between moving averages and cycles. For example, the monthly cycle is one of the best known cycles operating throughout the commodity markets. A month has 20 to 21 trading days. Cycles tend to be related to their next longer or shorter cycles harmonically, or by a factor of two. That means that the next longer cycle is double the length of a cycle and the next shorter cycle is half its length. The Girth Model will use the 10-period exponential moving average (EMA) and the 20-period EMA as their proxy for market trend. The Girth Model is a trend following model incorporating volatility, momentum and velocity. What is a momentum indicator? Momentum is simply a visual reference point of whether a security is rising or falling and how fast that rise or fall is. Construction of the indictor is simple - just subtract the close of the security X (whatever period you want) days ago from today s close. The resulting number can then be plotted around a zero line. For example let s say we were looking at a 10 period momentum indictor. You would simply deduct today s close from the close 10 days ago. If the close was higher than the close 10 days ago then it would be plotted above the zero line. If on the other hand the close was lower than the close 10 days ago, it would be plotted below the zero line. If the momentum line is rising and above the zero line we can interpret that as a strong bullish trend. If the momentum line is below the zero line and falling we can interpret that as a strong bearish trend [4]. Momentum can be a very good confirmation indicator. If you were using a moving average or a trend line to help determine trend, then a cross above or below the zero line could be just the confirmation you need. Momentum was used in Girth Model to calculate the girth number that is a function of momentum, velocity and volatility. 2 Our Trading Method The Girth Model will use the 10-period exponential moving average (EMA) and the 20-period EMA as their proxy for market trend. The model will enter new trades only on an EMA cross (for example, if the 10-period EMA crosses above the 20-period EMA, the model will go long). We will calculate girth at the close of each four-hour

4 Girth Model 4 Figure 1: The Early Out Diagram upward, and indicated an early close to the upside trade in late May. We saw a limited cross to the downside and then a resumption of the uptrend. We would be watching the four-hour girth threshold and the trend indicators and would have entered another long position. The graph shows how the trends and the girth indicator are used to preserve profits pending a reversal in trend. During the late May move from 1.34 to 1.44, two long positions were taken. They were both entered at the time of the EMA cross. Both trades were exited prior to the EMA cross, when the girth figure crossed below the girth threshold. Typically, early exit due to decreasing girth results in a more favorable profit position than that taken if the trader simply waited for an exit on the EMA cross to the downside.

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