Town of Caledon Provincial Policy Conformity (PPC) Exercise Council Workshop # 3 Growth Management Greenfield Density Target September 29, 2009

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1 Town of Caledon Provincial Policy Conformity (PPC) Exercise Council Workshop # 3 Growth Management Greenfield Density Target

2 Key Policy Drivers and Basis Documents: Greenfield Density Target Mandatory Conformity Requirements: Bill 136, The Places to Grow Act, and the Provincial Growth Plan Draft ROPA 24 Proposed Amendment to the Regional Forecasts, Regional Structure and Growth Management Policies of the Region of Peel Official Plan Basis Documents: Ministry of Energy and Infrastructure (formerly Ministry of Public Infrastructure Renewal) Built Boundary for the Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe 2006, Released in 2008 Region of Peel Growth Management Discussion Paper, Places to Prosper 2009 Town of Caledon Official Plan Amendment 203 endorsed by Council August 1, 2006 and November 6, 2007 Town of Caledon Population and Employment Forecasts and Allocations Draft Phase 3 Report, June 16,

3 Basis for Caledon Population and Employment Forecasts Town of Caledon Population and Employment Forecasts and Allocations Draft Phase 3 Report, June 16, 2006 and OPA 203 Caledon Population Forecasts based on: 2021: maintaining the average unit growth that had occurred over the last 10 years (approx. 600 units per year) and maintaining the current population forecast for 2021 of 84, : Four Options evaluated ranging from 88,000 to 114,000 and Option C at 108,000 was preferred (approx. 800 units per year) Caledon Employment Forecasts based on: Achieving a 45% activity rate. ie. 45 jobs per 100 residents Regional Population and Employment Allocations Addition of 4.2% census undercount to OPA 203 numbers Proportional reduction to meet provincial population and employment targets 3

4 Built Boundary Mapping Built-up Area: Built as of June 2006 (Pink) Undelineated Built-Up Area (Brown) Greenfield Areas Designated Greenfield Area: Unbuilt areas within settlement boundaries (Yellow) Settlement Expansions: Areas not yet designated Greenfield Density Target All Greenfield Areas in the Region must collectively achieve 50 persons and/or jobs per hectare. (ROPA ) 4

5 Caledon Greenfield Areas Designated Greenfield Bolton Mayfield West Caledon East Palgrave Estates Settlement Expansions Bolton Mayfield West Alton ROPA Requires the Area Municipalities to plan to meet 50 persons/jobs per hectare by PPC LOPA Caledon will plan to meet 50 excluding Palgrave Estates Residential Community 5

6 Town Growth Forecasts and Associated Land Area Requirements if Density Target is Met Growth on Greenfield Lands Total Greenfield Area (ha) Growth Growth at 50 p/j/ha Employment Growth Note: Source: ROPA 24 Fig. 15 Table B Population Growth Total Palgrave Estates Subtracted Grow th w ithout Palgrave Estates Note: 2031 Population per ROPA 24 Table 3 Population includes census undercount and ROPA 24 reduction Bolton Intensification (population and pop. related jobs) subtracted from total growth = Greenfield Growth 6

7 Town Growth Forecasts and Associated Land Area Requirements if Density Target is Met (Employment Land Employment and Population and Population-Related Employment Growth) Growth on Greenfield Lands Total Intensif. Greenfield Area (ha) Growth (Bolton) Growth at 50 p/j/ha Employment Lands Employment Growth Population-Related Employment Growth Total Employment Growth Population Growth Population-Related Employment Growth Total Population and Population Related Employment Palgrave Estates Subtracted Population and Population-Related Growth w ithout Palgrave Estates Source for Employment Growth by Type: Table 5 of PROPR Employment and Employment Lands Discussion Paper August 2009 Population includes census undercount and ROPA 24 reduction 7

8 Designated Greenfield Areas Bolton Area (ha) Density Employment Lands Mayfield West Mayfield West Phase 1 (no intensification) Fernbrook Subdivision Residential Policy Area A Total 495 Bolton Caledon East Caledon East Total without Palgrave Estates 881 Mayfield West Palgrave Estates Total w ith Palgrave Estates 1703 Expansion Area Available without Palgrave Estates 601 Palgrave Estates Expansion Area Available with Palgrave Estates -176 Note: Land areas and densities are draft and may be subject to change 8

9 Designated Greenfield Areas Employment Lands Bolton Area (ha) Density Employment Lands Mayfield West Phase 1 Employment Lands Total 454 Expansion Area Available: = -80 Designated Greenfield Areas Residential and Population-Related Employment Mayfield West Phase 1 (no intensification) Fernbrook Subdivision Residential Policy Area A Total 289 Caledon East Total without Palgrave Estates 427 Palgrave Estates Total w ith Palgrave Estates 1249 Expansion Area Available without Palgrave Estate 681 Expansion Area Available with Palgrave Estates -96 Mayfield West Palgrave Estates Bolton Caledon East Note: Land areas and densities are draft and may be subject to change 9

10 Proposed Settlement Expansions Bolton Gross Area (ha) Density Employment Lands Expansion North Hill Supermarket 2 57 Post 2021 Residential Expansion 174 Assumes 78 Total Mayfield West Phase 2 Employment Lands Expansion Residential Expansion Total Alton Total Planned Expansion Area 869 Expansion Area Available without Palgrave Estates (ha) 601 Difference between Expansion Area Planned and Available -268 Note: Land areas and densities are draft and may be subject to change. 10

11 Proposed Settlement Expansions Employment Lands Gross Area (ha) Density Bolton Employment Lands Expansion Mayfield West Employment Lands Expansion Total Planned Expansion Area 368 Empl. Expansion Area Available: Designated = -448 Proposed Settlement Expansions Residential and Population-Related Employment Bolton Post 2021 Residential Expansion 174 Assumes 78 Mayfield West Phase 2 Residential Expansion North Hill Supermarket 2 57 Alton Total Planned Expansion Area 501 Residential Expansion Area Available without Palgrave Estates: Designated = 180 Total Area Available w ithout Palgrave Estates: -268 Note: Land areas and densities are draft and may be subject to change. 11

12 Conclusions When Palgrave Estates is included, putting all of the projected growth in the Designated Greenfield Area does not meet 50 persons/jobs/hectare. No settlement expansions are possible. When Palgrave Estates is not included, 601 hectares are available for expansions. Currently Caledon is planning for expansions totalling 869 hectares. 12

13 Compensation for Low Densities to Achieve 50 1 hectare 1 hectare jobs per hectare = 78 (25 units) 2 ha average = 50 Employment Lands In Bolton Residential and/or Population-Related Employment 13

14 Some Implications Infrastructure planning and Development Charges are based on settlement expansions occurring. Will DCs need to be reviewed? Planning in employment areas will have to be driven by the Town rather than proponent driven to achieve higher densities in Designated Greenfield Areas. 14

15 Discussion 15

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