1 Improving Outcomes: A Technology Approach Applying Predictive Analytics to Child Welfare Accuracy, Productivity, Awareness, Outcomes TRACKING ANALYZING PREDICTING
2 What do we Achieving using the Predictive Models? New and Improved Insight Actionable Answers Probability of Future Events Ability to Use Results to Inject Case Practice Ability to Track Results of Case Practice Changes Ability to Measure Improvements
3 What is Business Intelligence? And how is it used today? INSIGHT ANSWERS RE-ACTIVE PRO-ACTIVE Business Intelligence Trend Analysis Statistical Analysis Descriptive Analytics What Happened? PAST FUTURE Primary Tools Used Today Technology Solution Standard and ad hoc reporting, Survey s, dashboards, alerts, or queries using structured data, traditional sources and manageable datasets. How many failed? What were the demographics? What is the age breakdown? How many of the parents were also in the system?
4 RE-ACTIVE PRO-ACTIVE What is Predictive Analytics? INSIGHT PAST And how do we apply it? Business Intelligence Trend Analysis Statistical Analysis Descriptive Analytics What Happened? Predictive Modeling Data Science Machine Learning Forecasting ANSWERS What is going to happen? FUTURE Predictive Analytics Technology Solution This is not predictive analytics Technology Solution Optimization, predictive modeling, forecasting using structured or unstructured data, internal or external data or massive datasets. Who will be re-abused? Who will re-enter care? When will this occur? Why will this occur? Standard and ad hoc reporting, Survey s, dashboards, alerts, or queries using structured data, traditional sources and manageable datasets. How many failed? What were the demographics? What is the age breakdown? How many of the parents were also in the system?
5 How does it work AFCARS NCANDS Consume Available Data Train Model Test and Tune the Model SACWIS NYTD NOTE: Children in Foster Care and Adoptions (AFCARS) Adoption and Foster Care Analysis and Reporting System NSCAW MODEL Outcomes of Child Abuse and Neglect (NCANDS) National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System Youth who age out (NYTD) National Youth in Transition Database LONGSCAN ANALYZE PREDICT Investigations regardless of finding (NSCAW) National Survey of Child and Adolescent Well-Being Maltreated Children (LONGSCAN) Longitudinal Studies of Child Abuse and Neglect Etc. SACWIS State Automated Child Welfare Information System Impact of every single data attribute Probability of target events (eg. re-abuse, failed reunifications DECISION SUPPORT etc.
6 Model Performance / With Prediction
7 Track Results Over Time. Confirm the model. Reunified Probability of Failure Did they fail?
8 How is Prediction Used System of Care uses the prediction as a decision support tool Prioritize the Quality Assurance Review based on highest probability of risk Review case, inject required case practice changes Re-run prediction, track impact. The desire is to see the probability decrease or eliminated all together
9 Predictive Analytics: Probability of Events My baseline:
10 What do I do with the prediction? Safety Plan No update since April. NOTE: reunified set for end of August Active meds Plcmt stability (# plcmts) Medical on file Last Visit was Within 12 months These children are nearing their reunification. Probability of failure if reunified is high. Attribute ranking shows issues with: Safety Plan Home Study Case Notes Psychotropic Medications Placement Stability Can I navigate into the case and see the detail and make decisions Home study: Highlights mom still unemployed *Case note is one sentence (6 words) Flagged (see other sides for how this is used) Case Notes NOTES: Electricity turned of 8/15 Mom still unemployed Another allegation of neglect (4 months prior to reunification date) PI closes allegation of neglect; (no indicator) Priors and maltreatments in care
11 How can I apply the results? Re-generate the prediction overtime. Compare to baseline Track Case Practice Changes
12 View Impact of Case Action Steps
13 Testimonials Mindshare s unique ability to merge mass amounts of information from different systems makes it possible to address the child welfare systems single most complex issue child safety says Vice President and Partner for Bouchard Insurance, Eric Beck. Executive Director of ECA-Hillsborough, Lorita Shirley, says Safety is the number 1 priority for ECA and the community. Mindshare is helping us to achieve maximum visibility to the patterns in the data. There should be no child deaths determined to be preventable on a case with a predictable fact pattern. Permanency starts at day one when a child enters foster care. Our Permanency Initiatives work to secure permanency and safety and well-being outcomes for children. The use of Mindshare helps us to be proactive, productive, accurate and aware says Family Support Services CEO, E. Lee Kaywork. Brevard Family Partnership / C.A.R.E.S CEO Dr. Patricia Nellius speaks of System Transformation to Community Based Care through the implementation of the Wrap Around Model: Working in partnership with Mindshare Technology, we have greatly increased our efficiencies, further allowing more precise management control through accurate data and thus, delivering a higher quality of care for all our children. We are continuing our partnership with Mindshare to positively impact our efforts as we go forward broadening our Wraparound approach.
14 Testimonials Sharing documentation across the spectrum of individuals involved in the life of the youth is of critical importance. A central point of access for all parties makes collaborating seamless. Good communication is a critical component to the success of our youth. Using technology is one way to stay connected. Our efforts with Mindshare have proven to provide efficiencies and economies of scale in information sharing across many aspects of our system of care, says John Cooper, CEO of Kids Central Inc. of Ocala Florida. Heartland for Children and Mindshare are working in partnership to find innovative solutions that promise to significantly improve outcomes. The Mindshare team has remained always open and pro-active to our vision and has responded with great solutions we rely on daily, Bill Nunnally, Chief Quality and Performance Officer, Heartland for Children Until the [Mindshare] Medical Passport, there was not one single place that all of the various care givers and professionals monitoring a child in the system could go and review critical medical information the pieces of the puzzle were scattered in many different places, said Frances Allegra, Our Kids CEO. Now all the pieces will be immediately available to their case managers, foster parents and health care providers. Having reliable data easily accessible has become critical to our agency. Mindshare allows us to track and analyze our data in a user friendly, Individualized format. We value our relationship with Mindshare as we work towards keeping children safe and building healthy communities, one family at a time. says Kids First of Florida CEO, Irene M. Toto.
15 Florida Agencies Using SACWIS Data to Improve Outcomes
IF NOT NOW, WHEN? A CALL TO ACTION FOR SYSTEMIC CHILD WELFARE REFORM IN MASSACHUSETTS Susan R. Elsen Esq., Massachusetts Law Reform Institute ABOUT MASSACHUSETTS LAW REFORM INSTITUTE Founded in 1968, the
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