1 Eric Siegel, Ph.D. Program Chair Predictive Analytics World Predictive Analytics World
2 Twitter hashtag: #pawcon DDBW: Predictive Analytics World Text Analytics World emetrics Conversion
3 Eric Siegel, Ph.D. Program Chair Predictive Analytics World Predictive Analytics World
4 Agenda Predict behavior Predict influence with uplift modeling Direct marketing Retention Other applications Analytical methods
5 Predictive Analytics: Data driven technology that produces a predictive score for each customer
6 Customer data Predictive modeling Predictive modeling Predictive model
7 Today Tomorrow
8 1% 3% Today Tomorrow 3% 1% Today Tomorrow
10 Predict: You didn't have to be so nice; I would have liked you anyway. The Lovin' Spoonful, 1965
12 marketing influence on Predict customer behavior. ^
13 Uplift modeling: Analytically modeling to predict the influence on a customer's buying behavior that results from marketing contact. How much more likely does contact make the desired outcome?
14 only Will the customer buy if contacted? ^ only Will the patient become healthy if treated? ^
15 Trials of A Test Trials of B Control
16 Response Uplift Modeling Buy if do receive an offer No Do-Not-Disturbs Lost Causes Yes Persuadables Sure Things Yes Buy if don t receive an offer No COST CUTTER: Don't contact those who'd respond anyway.
17 Predict: Respondents Sure things Do-not-disturbs Uplift modeling empowers your organization to capture more than 100% of responses by contacting less than 100% of the target population. Kathleen Kane Principle Decision Scientist Fidelity Investments
18 Uplift Gains
19 US Bank Business case: Direct mail for a home-equity line of credit Approach: Target campaign with an uplift model Resulting improvements over prior approach: Campaign ROI increased over 5 times Costs down 40% Lift up 2 times Leading financial institution Business case: Direct mail for a financial product Approach: Target campaign with an uplift model Resulting improvements over prior approach: Increased revenue per contact by a factor of 20
20 Hi Low Mining for the Most Truly Responsive Customers Kathleen Kane, Fidelity Session: Today, 4:15pm
21 Uplift Model Deciles PERSUADABLES LOST CAUSES/ SURE THINGS DO-NOT- DISTURBS
22 Response modeling: à Model those contacted Churn modeling: à Model those not contacted Test BOTH treatments and incorporate ALL results with uplift modeling
23 Agenda Predict behavior Predict influence with uplift modeling Direct marketing Retention Other applications Analytical methods
24 Today Tomorrow
25 Major N. American Telecom 10%-15% improvement to churn model via online behavior, including reviewing contract period Major N. American Telecom 700% more likely to cancel if someone in your network does Optus (Australian telecom) Doubled churn model performance with social data Contract expires à Cancel à Friends cancel
27 Churn Uplift Modeling Leave if do receive a retention offer Yes Sleeping Dogs Lost Causes No Sure Things No Persuadables Yes Leave if don t receive a retention offer "Leave well enough alone." "If it ain't broke, don't fix it." "Do not disturb!"
28 COST CUTTER: Don't trigger those who'd otherwise stay.
29 70% 90% Today Tomorrow 70% 90% Today Tomorrow
30 Telenor: world s 7th largest mobile operator million subscribers Campaign ROI increased 11-fold Reduce churn a further 36% relative to baseline Targeted volume reduced by 40%
31 Agenda Predict behavior Predict influence with uplift modeling Direct marketing Retention Other applications Analytical methods
34 Applications of Uplift Response upli+ Contact? Churn upli+ Reten*on offer? Content targe2ng With which ad, crea*ve, etc.? Channel selec2on Which channel? Dynamic pricing Which price?
35 Uplift modeling: Analytically modeling to predict the influence on a customer's buying behavior that results from choosing one marketing treatment over another. How much more likely is this treatment to generate the desired outcome than the alternative treatment?
36 Trials of A Test of treatment A Trials of B Control Test of treatment B
37 Weigh your options.
38 If banner is seen: Related searches +61% Paid clicks +249%
40 40 A-B test deployment: A. Legacy system based on acceptance rates across users B. Model-based ad selection Results: 25% increased take rate; 3.6 5% revenue increase Almost $1 million per year in additional revenue, given the existing $1.5 million monthly revenue.
41 More Applications of Uplift Collec2ons Credit risk Electoral poli2cs Personalized medicine Offer a deeper write- off? Offer a higher credit limit or APR? Campaign in a par*cular state? Apply which medical treatment?
42 Agenda Predict behavior Predict influence with uplift modeling Direct marketing Retention Other applications Analytical methods
44 Two-Model Approach Trials of A Modeling Predictive model for A Predictive score: Mary responds to A? Mary s profile Trials of B Modeling Predictive model for B Predictive score: Mary responds to B?
45 Uplift Modeling Trials of A Uplift modeling Uplift model Predictive score: Is A better than B? Trials of B Mary s profile
46 Engagement Recency Age
47 Multi-Var Models Response target segment: High response rate Uplift target segment: High impact
48 US Bank Direct Mail Segment: Has paid back more than 17.3% of current loan AND Is using more than 9.0% of revolving credit limit AND Is designated within a certain set of lifestyle segments Purchase rate: 1.83% if contacted 1.07% if not contacted
49 Will Uplift Modeling Help Me? Will customers buy without contact? Can retention offers backfire? Are both treatments non-passive?
50 Download the free white paper: Uplift Modeling: Predictive Analytics Can't Optimize Marketing Decisions Without It by Eric Siegel, Ph.D. PAW Workshop - March 9-10, 2012 in San Fran: Net Lift Models: Optimizing the Impact of Your Marketing by Kim Larsen
52 52 Predictive Analytics World Conference Nov 30-Dec 1, 2011: London, UK 2012: San Francisco, Toronto, Chicago Bigger wins! Strengthen the business impact delivered by predictive analytics. "Predictive Analytics World was probably the best analytics conference I have attended... turned into my new must-go-to conference." Dennis Mortensen Director of Data Insights, Yahoo! March 2011 drew over 500 attendees. PAW has included case studies from: Acxiom, Amazon.com, Bella Pictures, Charles Schwab, ClickForensics, Google, The National Rifle Association, Pinnacol Assurance, Reed Elsevier, Sun Microsystems, TaxBrain, Telenor, Wells Fargo, Yahoo! and many more. Copyright All Rights Reserved Prediction Impact, Inc.
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