Cable s Lost Generation

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1 1 Cable s Lost John Gilles VP Engagement, Method So it s war! At stake is the future of television and billions of dollars in revenue. It s the battle to define the future landscape of digital communications. So who wins, who loses and who gets wiped off the map? Method method.com

2 At this Year s CES Victor -vs- Vanquished David -vs- Goliath A Battle Royale 1 They called it the Battle Royale of media and entertainment. This year s CES pitted Internet video upstarts like Hulu, Roku, and Boxee in a cage match against industry stalwarts such as Comcast and Time Warner. At stake: the hearts and minds of millions. It was spun as a victor-versus-vanquished battle. It was either going to be Internet video s David hoisting aloft the head of the Goliath that is cable TV, or cable mowing down Hulu and the others like so much other Internet road kill. At first glance, it appears that David is a stone s throw from victory. The ever-crucial 18- to 24-year-old viewer, who spends $11 billion a year on entertainment, no longer watches TV as we know it. They are Cable s Lost. However, it turns out that they may not be as lost as we think. Growth in Pay-TV, which includes cable, DBS such as DirecTV, and IPTV like Verizon FiOS, has slowed to its lowest rate on record, according to Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. Wall Street analysts are looking for evidence of cord cutting among cable subscribers in favor of Internet television, but have not found a clear trend. In fact, it seems that Pay-TV subscribers are a loyal lot who would rather give up dry cleaning and imported beer than go without their Mad Men episodes. So it is not cord cutting that cable has to worry about. Lost in all the hype over the battle for the living room is the simple fact that young, new subscribers are not replacing older subscribers. As they leave college or their parents homes to start their own households, the only subscription they want is broadband. Cable s Lost is the first to be raised on the Internet, and they are more than happy to entertain themselves with a highdef Blu-Ray, a PS3, Apple s Jesus tablet, or with a fuzzy desktop video pulled off a torrent site. The opportunity for brands and content owners, therefore, rests with access that is not fixed to a particular network, device, or context, but encourages multiple points of consumption, be they fixed or mobile.

3 According to Boxee CEO, Avner Ronen, the average Boxee user is not someone who canceled his or her cable subscription to move to over-the-top television (OTT) it is someone who has never had cable in the first place. Comcast Time Warner vs Hulu Boxee David vs Goliath Round 1

4 76 of homes in the United States have internet access of year olds have a home entertainment system and Entertainment Consumption of United States population is year olds This chart illustrates the influence that young adults have on the entertainment industry, particularly in regards to over-the-top use. 4 of annual entertainment spent in the United States is from year olds 38 of young adults pay for Netflix Young Adults Ronen says that there is a growing legion of recent college graduates who have never had cable, do not see the need to pay for it, and are perfectly adept at finding what they want to see through alternative channels. The Nielsen numbers back up Ronen. For at least the past five years, the young male demographic has virtually dropped off the map of television, and initial speculation was that they were too busy playing video games to watch TV. Now we know the truth these young householders are consuming vast amounts of TV content, just not in the traditional sense. The inviolable cable industry has good reason to be concerned. These Internet Natives are a desirable bunch for marketers; they represent over 30 million people in the US who spend $230 billion a year. Advertisers such as Sony, Xbox, and Anheuser- Busch have found this missing demographic using multiple platforms, and other established content owners are also moving in the same direction. For example, Scripps Networks, the parent company of the Food Network and HGTV, recently launched Food2 as an OTT video network aimed directly at the young and content hungry consumer. And they are not the only ones. Marketers who study the Nielsen ratings are looking past cable and broadcast TV to find that hard-to-reach demographic, and they are carefully watching OTT video brands like Revision3 s popular Diggnation show. The old world was built around a handful of media players profiting from limited choice. In a world that now demands unlimited choice, the vast availability of real time content from numerous providers, next generation media, and a multitude of platforms have obfuscated the landscape. For marketers who want to reach that audience, 30-second spots on TV are no longer a safe bet. However, this presents a huge opportunity for the savvy brand owner who knows how to optimize their use of these alternative channels to attract distinct audiences with different expectations.

5 $300 billion $300 billion is spent annually on entertainment in the US $60 billion by year olds, or 20 $11 billion by year olds, or 4 In a new report by category analyst Colin Dixon, entitled TVE vs. OTT Are You Ready for a Throwdown? Dixon and his colleagues heralded CES as the beginning of the battle between OTT and TVE, but also emphasized that consumers are avidly interested in both options and are willing to vote with their wallets. A significant number of Pay-TV subscribers are telling us they want TV services over their broadband connections, Dixon told us when we caught up with him at CES. They re willing to pay for mobility and if they can t get it from their Pay-TV provider, they will certainly look elsewhere. When Time Warner Cable announced its TVE initiative, offering Pay-TV subscribers full-episode content on computers, phones, and even TVs through IP cloud services, it was a reaction to the sudden availability of premium full-episode content on new services such as Hulu, Roku, and Boxee. Category buster Boxee has led the way to OTT. In line with a recent study by Bain & Co. that showed the most recommended company in any given category grows 2.5 times the category average, Boxee users are fanatical about the service and advocate it, which makes it the most likely service to be used as a true cable replacement. Mostly for a younger, early-adopter demographic, the majority of its members are true Internet Natives who have never had cable. Meanwhile, grown-up organizations like the BBC and PBS are offering full episode TV over the top via the iplayer and the PBS Video Portal, respectively. 20 of entertainment spending was from18-34 year olds, or $46 billion 4 of entertainment spending was from year olds, or $11 billion We predict that there is an emergent market to curate, distribute, and monetize content and that it is wide open for game changing innovations that deliver these new streams across multiple platforms. For the entire industry, at stake is the future of TV, advertising, and literally billions of dollars in revenue. Either way, consumers win big, because whichever side they choose they are going to get greater convenience, more content, and better experiences. Most advertisers and industry players will likely attempt to reach consumers through both TVE and OTT services. The twin factors of choice and competition will reward consumers with improved convenience, abundance, and quality experiences, giving them what they want, wherever they want it. The opportunities are too many to enumerate. For brands, it is not so much about picking the winning pony, but finding those missing kids. The young, Internet-savvy demographic is highly sought after, and when you cannot reach them with 30-second spots, it becomes that much trickier to get their attention. The good news is that we now know where Nielsen s missing demographic went. The kids are all right for now, they are just going over the top. Disclaimer: Boxee, Cablevision, Comcast, BBC, PBS, Scripps Networks, and Time Warner Cable are current or recent Method clients. vs General Population Young Adults

6 1 Cable s Lost By John Gilles, VP Engagement About the Author John Gilles is an internationally recognized expert on digital media. A pioneer in hybrid web/tv content experiences, Gilles is now focused on developing new brand experiences across video games, the Internet, television, virtual worlds and other media. About Unlocking the Infinite Library This is the First Issue next More to come marks Method s 10 year anniversary, and we are only looking forward. Written by our own industry leaders, we are launching the series, which will focus on game changing topics that will fundamentally impact today s brands and their search for new revenue streams. Unlocking the Infinite Library Turn Me On, Touch Me Everywhere Mind the Gap Parenting 101 Hey, You, Get Onto My Cloud The Consumer as King(pin) Wrap It, Pack It, and Stack It Power to the People Welcome to the Metaverse

7 About Method Method is a brand experience agency with offices based in San Francisco, New York and London. Our clients are best described as owners of progressive, era defining brands, and include Google, Comcast, Nordstrom, Sony, Samsung, Nokia, Microsoft, Time Warner, Intel, and BBC. Collaboratively, we help them create products, services and businesses that are smart, beautiful and extendable. For more information visit Method Locations San Francisco New York London Contact Lindsay Liu Marketing Manager method.com

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