Agricultural Risk Model for Water Scarcity

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1 Agricultural Risk Model for Water Scarcity Klaus Wagner Landscape structures, functions and management: response to global ecological change International Conference on Landscape Ecology, IALE 2010, Brno CZ Federal Institute of Agricultural Economics Marxergasse 2, 1030 Vienna, Austria Brno 2010_09_05, 1

2 Content Alp Water Scare Project Subproject Agriculture Method and project procedure Indicator development Pilot regions application Further steps Brno 2010_09_05, 2

3 Project Alp Water Scarce EU Alpine Space project Alp Water Scarce: Coordination: Mountain Institute, University Savoy, France Topic: Water Managements Strategies against water scarcity under climate change conditions in the alps long term monitoring and modelling of water recharge, early warning system for scarcity and imbalance 25 pilot regions (A, CH, F, I, Sl) Brno 2010_09_05, 3

4 Subproject Agriculture Objectives of the agricultural subproject: Role of agriculture in an integrated water management system Strengthen awareness of water consumption in agriculture (not only irrigation) in changing climate scenarios Possibilities for adapted land use Interim results: risk model for water scarcity in agriculture Brno 2010_09_05, 4

5 Interrelations Agriculture LAND Soil Climate Interrelations, interdependencies, interactions among agriculture, soil, climate conditions Examples of climate change impacts on agriculture: Quantity and quality of crops Heat stress Infestation by pests Vegetation period Degradation of land Availablity of nutrients Different vulnerabilities of crops Brno 2010_09_05, 5

6 Method and project procedure Adapted Ecological Risk analysis: Intensity of the Impact (agricultural land use, water consumption) Impact sensitivity (natural conditions) Impact Risk (climate change also change in agriculture) Risk assessment model, application in selected pilot regions Brno 2010_09_05, 6

7 Indicator development Water consumption in agriculture: Plant cultivation (classification in 5 classes following FAO Crop Coeffcient) Irrigation (Plant and regional specific irrigation amounts) Plant category Examples of cultivated crops Water demand Classification and weight Spring grain, Grapes Sunflowers Springwheat, Springrye, Springbarley, Springoats, Millet, Sorghum, Sunflower, Pumpkin, Grapes, very low 1 Legumes, Maize, Roots, Tubers Fababean, Soybean, Peas, Maize, Sugarbeets Potatoes low 2 Winter grain Wheat, Barley;Oats, Triticale middle 3 Fruit trees, Berries, Rapeseed Apples, Cherries, Pears, Apricots, Peaches, Rapeseed, Berries high 4 Pastures Rotated pastures, Low input grassland, Meadows very high 5 Brno 2010_09_05, 7

8 Indicator development Water consumption in agriculture: Animal husbandry (guideline values of specific water demand per livestock unit per year) Livestock category Water demand (drinking and processing water per stableplace per year in m³) Livestock Unit (LU) per animal per year (Lebensministerium 2008b) Water demand per LU per year in m³ Classification and weight 1 Rearing and fattening calf (page 538) 4,4 0,4 11,0 low (1) Fattening cattle (page 574) 11,5 1 11,5 low (1) Pigs (20-50kg, Umweltbundesamt 2003) 1,8 0,15 12,0 low (1) Rearing cattle (page 551) 12,1 1 12,1 low (1) Fattening pig (page 608) 2,36 0,15 15,7 low (1) Horses (Umweltbundesamt 2003) 21,6 1 21,6 middle (3) Laying hen (page 656) 0,09 0,004 22,5 middle (3) Sheep, goat (Umweltbundesamt 2003) 3,6 0,15 24,0 middle (3) Breeding sow (page 621) 7,6 0,3 25,3 middle (3) Suckler cow (page 591) 25,5 1 25,5 middle (3) Dairy cattle (page 520) 28,5 1 28,5 middle (3) Fattening chicken (page 671) 0,05 0, ,3 high (5) Piglet (<20kg, Umweltbundesamt 2003) 0,72 0,02 36,0 high (5) Fattening turkey (page 686) 0,26 0,007 37,1 high (5) Brno 2010_09_05, 8

9 Indicator development Soil: Capacity of available water in soils (as estimation from soil type, slope, depth ) Capacity of available water in mm Risk Classification and weight < >300 very high (5) high (4) Middle (3) Low (2) very low (1) Brno 2010_09_05, 9

10 Indicator development Climate: Aridity index as relation of temperature and precipitation for the current situation Climate change scenarios from IPCC, regional adaptations Am = 3Tm / Pm A = Aridity index T = Average temperature P = Precipitation m= monthly Brno 2010_09_05, 10

11 Pilot regions - Land Use Agricultural Risk Analysis for Water Scarcity Pilot regions - overview Type of Agricultural Area Arable land % Grassland intensive % Grassland low input % Orchard % Vineyard % XXX Agricultural area in ha Austria Steirisches Randgebirge France Switzerland Sandey 648 Noce Steirisches Becken Koralpe Steiermark Kärnten gesamt Slovenia Julian Alps Dravsko-Ptujsko Arly Italy Risk Classification Land Use National borderline Scrivia Alp Water Scarce Project Federal Institute of Agricultural Economics Vienna Klaus Wagner Source: own calculations, national statistic data Brno 2010_09_05, 11 Weighted risk points Steir. Randgebirge Kärnten gesamt* Koralpe Steiermark Steir. Becken Arly* Dravsko-Ptujsko* Pilot region Scrivia* Julian Alps* Noce Spöl* Sandey*

12 Pilot regions - Animal husbandry Agricultural Risk Analysis for Water Scarcity Pilot regions - overview Type of Livestock Units Proportion Cattle % Pigs % Poultry % Sheep, Goats, Horses % Austria XXX Livestock units per ha Steirisches Randgebirge 1,5 France Arly 0,6 Switzerland Sandey 1,0 Noce 0,5 0,7 Steirisches Becken 1,1 Kärnten gesamt 0,9 Koralpe Steiermark 0,9 1,1 1,3 0,8 0,9 Slovenia Julian Alps 0,3 Dravsko-Ptujsko 1,3 0,5 Italy Risk Classification Livestock National borderline Scrivia 0,0 Alp Water Scarce Project Federal Institute of Agricultural Economics Vienna Klaus Wagner Source: own calculations, national statistic data Brno 2010_09_05, 12 Weighted risk points Steir. Randgebirge Kärnten gesamt* Koralpe Steiermark Steir. Becken Arly* Dravsko-Ptujsko* Pilot region Scrivia* Julian Alps Noce Spöl* Sandey*

13 Pilot regions - Soil Agricultural Risk Analysis for Water Scarcity Soil-Risk Classes Risk Classes Proportion Lo w risk % Lo w - med ium risk % Medium risk % Medium - high risk % High risk % Austria Steirisches Randgebirge France Switzerland Kärnten gesamt Steirisches Becken Koralpe Steiermark Sandey Noce Julian Alps Dravsko-Ptujsko Slovenia Arly National borderline Scrivia Alp Water Scarce Project Federal Institute of Agricultural Economics Vienna Klaus Wagner Source: own calculations, national statistic data Brno 2010_09_05, 13 Italy Weighted risk points Steir. Randgebirge Kärnten gesamt* Koralpe Steiermark Risk Classification Soil Steir. Becken Arly* Dravsko-Ptujsko* Pilot region Scrivia* Julian Alps Noce Spöl* Sandey*

14 Pilot regions - Climate Agricultural Risk Analysis for Water Scarcity Pilot regions - overview Climate, monthly avg. of last 10 available years Temperature Precip itation Austria Steirisches Randgebirge France Switzerland Koralpe Steierm ark Steirisches Becken Sandey Spöl Noce Dravsko-Ptujsko Arly Slovenia Italy Risk Classification Aridity National borderline Scrivia Alp Water Scarce Project Federal Institute of Agricultural Economics Vienna Klaus Wagner Source: own calculations, national statistic data Brno 2010_09_05, 14 Aridity index (avg. year) 1,00 0,50 0,00 Steir. Randgebirge Kärnten gesamt* Koralpe Steiermark Ste ir. Becken Arly* Dravsko-Ptu jsko* Pilot region Scrivia* Julian Alps Noce Spö l* San dey*

15 Sandey* Pilot regions - Comprised risk Risk Classification Standardized Steir. Randgebirge Kärnten gesamt * Koralpe Steiermark Jaunt al St eir. Becken Arly* Dravsko-Pt ujsko* Scrivia* Julian Alps* Noce Spöl* -2 Standardized risk points -3 Pilot re gion Land use Livestock Soil Aridity Irrigation Brno 2010_09_05, 15

16 Pilot regions - Climate Change (Aridity) 2050 Agricultural Risk Analysis for Water Scarcity Climate Risk Seasonal aridity index (3T/P) dif f erence of scenario 1 to current situation Aridity index difference winter Aridity index difference spring Aridity index difference summer Aridity index difference autumn XXX Aridity index, difference avg. year Austria Steirisches Randgebirge 0,173 Switzerland Koralpe Steiermark Steirisches Becken 0,107 0,201 France Spöl Sandey 0,139 0,056 Noce 0,181 0,145 0,143 0,072 0,152 0,122 Dravsko-Ptujsko 0,182 Arly 0,078 Slovenia 0,070 Italy Scrivia 0,497 National borderline Alp Water Scarce Project Federal Institute of Agricultural Economics Vienna Klaus Wagner Source: own calculations, national statistic data Brno 2010_09_05, 16

17 Further work Integration of climate change and agricultural scenarios in risk patterns (agreed with other project partners) Evaluation of agricultural policy measures concerning water consumption Potential strategy adaptation and implementation options of measures, economic concerns for agriculture Brno 2010_09_05, 17

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