STATE. of the MARKET
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1 STATE of the MARKET
2 TABLE OF CONTENTS The Takeaway 1 The Overview 2 Financial Results 4 Placement Considerations 6 Brands 9
3 THE TAKEAWAY Even in an industry where soft markets are the rule rather than the exception, current conditions are extraordinary. This may represent a new normal of abundant capital and low catastrophe losses or simply an extended pause before the industry, and nature, revert sharply back to the mean. Should the latter be the case, the question is how the new capital that has been pouring into the industry will stand up when it comes to paying out losses rather than gathering returns. Throughout the property catastrophe market, rates remain under pressure with pockets of considerable softness as insurers compete on price, terms and conditions for desirable risks. Incumbent insurers are loath to give up existing accounts with good loss histories. The market, however, is uneven, and not every risk should expect another round of steep rate cuts. Even in unusual markets, the fundamental rules still apply. Value isn t measured only by price, and soft markets eventually end. Retail brokers and risk managers should recognize the continuing value in long-term relations with markets that have offered good service and specialized coverage in the past. Whether the current market conditions represent a secular change or a cyclical phase will only be answered in hindsight. Still, there is lasting value in experience. Brokers that have demonstrated the expertise to navigate complex markets in the past are well placed to obtain the best results in today s extraordinary conditions. 1
4 THE OVERVIEW Competition has never been quite so intense in the property catastrophe market as today. To a large extent, that s due to factors outside the industry s control as historically low interest rates and subdued catastrophe losses attract capital seeking higher returns. The Federal Reserve has kept interest rates near zero since the financial crisis, suppressing returns on traditional fixed income investments. That has made higher-yielding investments linked to insurance, such as catastrophe bonds, an attractive alternative at least in the current absence of major catastrophes. This fall marked a record 10 years since a major hurricane (Category 3 or higher) hit the United States the longest stretch since record keeping began in It s worth remembering that this record quiet spell began the year after the most active hurricane season on record when Katrina devastated New Orleans, Rita slammed the Texas and Louisiana coasts, and Wilma raked across Florida. On the West Coast, California s fault lines also have been relatively quiet. The last significant earthquake to strike the state was the 6.0 magnitude South Napa quake in 2014, which caused an estimated $150 million in insured losses.2 It s been more than 20 years since the 6.7 magnitude Northridge earthquake in 1994, which caused insured losses of $24.4 billion (in 2014 dollars). The year hasn t been without disasters. Enough rain fell across Texas this spring to cover the entire state in nearly eight inches of water, according to local news reports.3 Two September wildfires each burned more than 70,000 acres of northern California, causing more than an estimated $1 billion in combined insured losses.4 As fall began, South Carolina was subjected to a thousand-year rainfall, measured in feet, even as Hurricane Joaquin scudded safely away from the East Coast and off into the Atlantic. Following Joaquin, Hurricane Patricia became the most powerful hurricane on record in the Western Hemisphere with winds above 200 mph just before it slammed into Mexico s Pacific Coast. 2
5 Still, catastrophe losses remain significantly below average, following a below-average year in The low levels of losses continue to draw new capital into the market, heightening already intense competition among traditional insurers and reinsurers. The alternative capital is taking on risks that insurers were reluctant to consider. Some is also finding its way into the market in a more direct way through fronting arrangements. Another impact of alternative capital has been to drive down the price of reinsurance, which has fueled aggressive buying. The low cost of reinsurance, for instance, allowed Florida s Citizens Property Insurance to purchase $3 billion in reinsurance for the same cost as $1.8 billion in reinsurance in the prior year, the Wall Street Journal reported. 5 The tide may, at least, be showing signs of turning. The growth rate of alternative capital may be slowing as average annual returns for catastrophe bonds declined sharply over the last year. 6 At the same time, price declines have been moderating in the reinsurance market, particularly for U.S. wind, with the purchase of increased limits playing a factor in helping to stabilize premiums. 7 Despite the intense competition, property/casualty insurers are still making money, and while insurers remain broadly profitable, competition is unlikely to subside. In Florida, for instance, carriers are willing to write much larger risks than before. On the West Coast, the California earthquake market remains soft as cheaper reinsurance allows carriers to write more quake insurance. Around the country, standard markets have started to write business that they would not have written before, increasing their appetite for previously undesirable risks. Given past rate reductions, carriers are looking for other ways to retain accounts. With little rate to give up in many cases, carriers may be willing to provide lower deductibles, or in certain cases, flat deductibles. Deductible buybacks have become a more frequent arena for negotiation. That is unlikely to last after a big storm. The bottom line is that while the market remains under severe pressure, and rates may soften further, the declines are unlikely to be as big as they have been to date. 3
6 Financial Results: Property/casualty insurers net income increased amid mild domestic catastrophe losses. 8 4
7 Catastrophe Losses: Global insured losses from catastrophes remained below average for the first-half of The deadliest disasters were the 7.8 magnitude earthquake in Nepal and a heat wave in India and Pakistan. The costliest were the winter storms in the Northeast that buried Boston under more than nine feet of snow. Reinsurance and Alternative Capital: A lack of catastrophe losses and continued capital inflows have combined to drive down the price of reinsurance through mid-year renewals but declines have moderated in U.S. catastrophe, particularly for U.S wind. 11 The catastrophe bond market remains active, with private placements showing strong growth. Total alternative capital rose 7% in the first half of the year to $68.4 billion, about 12% of the total reinsurance capital of $565 billion at the end of the second quarter. 12 Earlier this year, commuter railroad Amtrak turned to the cat bond market for storm surge coverage with a $200 million-plus bond, the second bond to provide reinsurance for this risk after a $200 million bond by New York s Metropolitan Transit Authority in Competitive and regulatory pressures continue to drive mergers in the reinsurance and insurance industries, with more than $100 billion in deals announced this year, the Wall Street Journal reports. 13 ACE Ltd. is merging with Chubb Corp. in a more-than $28 billion transaction, the largest such deal in the property/ casualty sector. While overall reinsurance prices were down across all regions and lines of business, buyers appetite for additional limits is helping to restrain premium declines for U.S. property. 14 Private placement catastrophe bond transactions reached $753 million for the first half, which was a record. 15 Reinsurance capital declined to $565 billion at the end of the second quarter, with the strengthening U.S. dollar a factor. 16 5
8 PLACEMENT CONSIDERATIONS Incumbent insurers have been attempting to maintain pricing discipline, offering only moderate reductions on renewal business. Experienced brokers can help accounts assess their existing programs and identify changes that could result in better coverage at lower prices. As the market continues to experience low natural catastrophe losses globally, more capital will be drawn into the industry seeking returns. That will likely drive some additional softening. While new markets may offer lower rates that may not always represent the best choice. Savings from a lowest-dollar approach may prove fleeting. Carriers that don t have a history of dealing with significant losses in a market may be more reluctant to participate after those losses do occur. Long-term relationships with carriers that have a track record of price stability and paying claims typically provide more lasting value, particularly when it involves difficult exposures, specialized expertise and custom-tailored coverage. Pricing efficiencies may be possible by considering new strategies for program structure and assessing the availability of new capital sources to augment and to help drive better results from existing relationships. Insureds place themselves in the best position by taking measures to strengthen loss control efforts and by providing detailed asset information to underwriters. Insurers are still reluctant to provide lower rates for accounts that are perceived as higher risk and that have not taken steps to reduce the risk of loss. Engineering surveys, even independent third-party loss control ordered by the insured, are very helpful or may even be required to attract interest in some risks, especially manufacturing. 6
9 Pricing: As competition intensifies, price cuts have continued in the property-catastrophe market. Incumbent carriers are striving to keep accounts with good loss experience. Catastrophe-exposed accounts have seen double-digit declines, but accounts that have already seen large previous price cuts should temper their expectations. Multi-year rate guarantees are more widely available, and in some cases two- or three-year policies, particularly for public entity accounts. Non-catastrophe exposed rates are holding fairly steady, but may edge downward for accounts with good loss experience. Rates are steady in areas exposed to severe weather losses in Texas, Oklahoma and the Midwest, but may increase for specific accounts with negative loss experience. Earthquake rates remain under strong pressure on the West Coast. Deductibles as low as 3% are available in California and as low as 1% in Washington State. Earth movement coverage is drawing interest in place of earthquake. Frame habitational exposures remain very challenging on the whole, but even more so for coastal and other catastrophe exposed properties. Terms & Conditions: Insurers continue to offer broader terms and conditions to maintain relationships. Most markets now have expanded capabilities and appetites. Lower deductibles are more widely available, but on an account-specific basis. Flat deductibles are available in the buyback market in Texas and Louisiana. In addition, certain carriers will also decrease the application of deductibles to hurricanes in lieu of named storms, and cap these deductibles on residential policies. On renewal business, more moderate reductions are typical, and accounts that have already been given significant rate reductions should expect more modest reductions going forward. In the excess & surplus market, insurers are keen to keep accounts with good loss histories, but are more reluctant when it comes to those accounts that have had poor loss experiences, involve hazardous occupancies, or have not taken the appropriate loss control measures. Summary: Market conditions will eventually change. The market as it is today, however, remains the driving force behind all of our efforts. Every account presents its own specific circumstances, and experienced brokers can help provide the knowledge and balancing act required to obtain the best results. In an extremely fluid market, knowledge, experience and long-term relationships prove their value. 7
10 1 No major hurricane has made landfall in the U.S. in more than 9 years - and that s a new record, Weather.com. See: hurricane/news/major-hurricane-us-landfall-drought-study 2 Earthquakes: Risk and Insurance Issues, III. Sept See: 3 Texas Flooding: Here s a look at the state s rainfall by the numbers, NBC News. See: 4 California wildfire insured losses top $1 billion, Business Insurance, Oct. 8, See; ?tags=%7C338%7C329%7C76%7C83%7C302 5 Florida s hurricane dry spell lasts, Wall Street Journal, Nov. 28, See: 6 Alternative capital growth slowing, hedge funds largely cycled out, Business Insurance, Sept. 14, See: article/ /news06/ /alternative-capital-growth-slowing-hedge-funds-largely-cycled-out?tags=%7c64%7c76%7c83%7c302% 7C81 7 July 1 Renewals Reveal Price Declines Moderating Especially for US Wind-Exposed Programs, Guy Carpenter, July 9, 2015: See: com/content/dam/guycarp/en/documents/pressrelease/2015/july%201%20renewals%20reveal%20price%20declines%20moderating%20 Especially%20for%20US%20Wind-Exposed%20Programs.pdf 8 Property/Casualty Insurance Results: First Half 2015, Verisk. Oct. 21, See: pdf 9 Property/Casualty Insurance Results: First Half 2015, Verisk 10 Munich Re, Press Release, July , See: 11 Mid-year (Re) Insurance Report, Guy Carpenter, July See: The_Reinsurance_Landscape.pdf 12 Reinsurance Market Outlook September 2015, Aon Benfield. See: 13 Insurance deals gather momentum amid cost squeeze, Wall Street Journal, Sept. 24, See: 14 July 1 Renewals Reveal Price Declines Moderating Especially for US Wind-Exposed Programs. Guy Carpenter. July 9, See: gccapitalideas.com/2015/07/09/july-1-renewals-reveal-price-declines-moderating-especially-for-us-wind-exposed-programs/ 15 Mid-year (Re) Insurance Report, Guy Carpenter, July Reinsurance Market Outlook September 2015, Aon Benfield. See: CRC Insurance Services, Inc. CA Lic No No claim to any government works or material copyrighted by third parties. Nothing in this communication constitutes an offer, inducement, or contract of insurance. Financial strength and size ratings can change and should be reevaluated before coverage is bound. This material is intended for licensed insurance agency use only. This is not intended for business owner or insured use. If you are not a licensed agent please disregard this communication. Equal Opportunity Employer Minority/Female/Disabled/Veteran. 8
11 BRANDS PERFORMANCE IS THE DIFFERENCE TM Our Brokerage division has core strength in the blend of unique expertise, unsurpassed market access and innovative solutions, coupled with personalized, high-touch service from our associates. Our brokerage capabilities offer a broad range of standard and E&S markets providing solutions for large, open market accounts, from the simplest to the most complex - nationwide. SCU offers a full range of placement services, including in-house authority with a number of top rated carriers for numerous classes and lines of coverage. The brokers and underwriters at SCU have spent years working closely with markets and independent retailers to gain the knowledge and experience necessary to handle nearly any small-to-medium size risk. Tapco Underwriters is the nation s leading small account MGA facility. Tapco s success is based on its exclusive call-center service model and proprietary technology platform. 5Star Specialty Programs is a full service Managing General Agent (MGA) offering property & casualty insurance underwriting expertise in Transportation, Workers Compensation, and more. Hanleigh designs and underwrites coverage for highly compensated corporate, entertainment, and sports risks. Hanleigh has provided risk solutions to some of the world s most successful individuals and organizations for almost 30 years. Negley Associates is a leading underwriting management firm serving the insurance needs of behavioral healthcare agencies and related social services. Target Insurance Services and Target Professional Programs offer unsurpassed expertise in professional liability coverages for hundreds of classes. 9
STATE. of the MARKET
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