Multi-Hazard Early Warning and Decision Support Systems Workshop. Report

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1 Multi-Hazard Early Warning and Decision Support Systems Workshop Shanghai Meteorological Service, Shanghai, China March 21-23, 2012 Report Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) Weather and Climate Information and Decision Support Systems (WCIDS) China Meteorological Administration Shanghai Meteorological Service

2 Acknowledgments This workshop was conducted within the framework of cooperation between the World Bank Global facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery and the China Meteorological Administration. It is the first in a series of training sessions intended to increase the knowledge of World Bank Staff and World Bank clients in the implementation of best practices in weather- and climate- related hazard warning systems and service delivery. 2 P age

3 Executive Summary Introduction The Shanghai Meteorological Service (SMS) conducted a workshop on Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems (MHEWS) on behalf of the World Bank (WB) Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) on March 21-23, The Workshop took place at the headquarters of the SMS. Formerly known as the Shanghai Meteorological Bureau, the SMS is part of the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) and reports to both CMA and the Shanghai Municipal Government (SMG). Founded in 1872 as the Xujiahua Observatory, it has conducted continuous weather observations for 140 years. The purpose of the Workshop was to familiarize WB Task Team Leads (TTLs), responsible for programs in Asia and the Pacific, with the latest operational techniques in the development and implementation of MHEWS and to discuss how these techniques could be adapted and applied in least developed countries. The Shanghai MHEWS was set up to respond to the need to provide warnings of hydro-meteorological hazards in a mega-city with a population exceeding 23 million. Much of the city s infrastructure is vulnerable to disruption and a coordinated warning and response system is essential. Over the past 5 years, the Shanghai MHEWS, under the guidance and support of the CMA and SMG, has developed as one of the premier examples of a warning system that engages relevant government departments at the city level to provide timely response to meteorological hazards. Presentations Presentations and hands-on demonstration of the MHEWS were made highlighting how the system was developed and implemented. Participants also had the opportunity to visit the SMG Emergency Operations Center, which highlighted how the MHEWS is fully integrated into the operations of the Shanghai Municipality and CMA system. Dr. Tang Xu, Director-General of the SMS, described how the MHEWS is built on three essential components: a) Government Leadership; b) multi-agency coordination; and c) community participation. Government leadership establishes the necessary legal and regulatory frameworks for coordination and cooperation between each level of government and between government agencies and bureaus. In the case of multi-hazard early warning, national regulations have been implemented, which are based on the Meteorology Law of China, which defines the roles, responsibilities and authorities of weather departments as well as their operational functions. At the city level, the Shanghai government passed regulations implementing the Meteorological Law of China and clarifying the role of the SMS in disaster prevention and mitigation (DPM), and this framework continues to be strengthened to ensure the appropriate response at the grassroots level of society to ensure the best possible warnings and response to these warnings. Coordination with Shanghai municipal government involves at least 15 separate ministries and departments, each of which has signed agreements establishing standard operating procedures (SOPs). The DPM approach in Shanghai focuses on managing the potential cascade of disasters stemming from an initial hydro-meteorological hazard. The primary, secondary and sometimes tertiary impacts require well-ordered coordination and cooperation to support highly sensitive users as well as the general public. The MHEWS has two parts: a technical component and management component. The technical component is built around six platforms: 3 P age

4 1) Multi-hazard detection and monitoring 2) Forecast and warning information generation 3) Decision-making support 4) Warning information dissemination 5) Multi-hazard database 6) Multi-agency network system The management component has two parts: 1) Multi-agency coordination and cooperation mechanism consisting of government organizations 2) Social community protection system consisting of the basic social units such as communities The platforms for detection, monitoring and forecasting are extensive including a dense network of in situ and remotely sensed observations and numerical weather prediction models. These provide the forecaster with the tools to support the decision-making platform, which includes all aspects of information sharing and communication as part of the public weather service function of SMS. The warning information dissemination platform ensures that messages are consistent and actionable, disseminated through multiple channels, communicated quickly and received effectively. As needed, at this stage, weather and climate related hazard information is combined with other hazard information. The dissemination system uses color-coded symbols, which are consistent across all agencies responsible for providing warnings. These are disseminated via TV, telephone, websites, warning towers, radio, mobile short messages and large electronic displays. The database platform consists of historical and real-time data supplied by all of the agencies and sectors at risk, including water affairs, maritime, rural traffic, air traffic, food, sanitation, agriculture and electric power. More than seventeen departments currently support this database. The multi-agency network system supports the development of SOPs. Currently there are thirty-six different joint response mechanisms among twenty-five government departments. This approach facilitates efficient cooperation in emergency management. Early briefing prepares the government departments to take action ahead of joint response and prior to issuing warnings to the public. Another important element, ensuring the efficiency of the system is the incorporation of the warning system into the Public Weather Service operations. This is a system anchored by the Public Service Officer (PSO), who is responsible for the dissemination of routine as well as hazard-related information. The approach taken by Shanghai was reinforced by subsequent presentations from CMA s National Climate Center, WMO and the Hong Kong Observatory, and on agricultural warning systems and Europe s MeteoAlarm. Each of which use similar approaches, particularly in the development of warning systems and in the delivery of weather and climate information and hazardous weather-related warnings. WB TTLs presented some of the challenges they face in series of case studies, which were discussed with SMS staff and invited experts. The overwhelming problem in least developed countries is weak crossgovernment coordination and cooperation, poor infrastructure and a lack of trained personnel. Nevertheless, systems are being developed with WB assistance to strengthen warning systems to enable effective action at the community level. 4 P age

5 Conclusions Lessons Learned The Workshop was an opportunity to explore what lessons could be learned from Shanghai and how could the Shanghai experience be adapted to least developed countries. Transformational Process Shanghai Meteorological Service has evolved from a traditional weather agency to a user-oriented service organization focused on delivery of services that people need and want. This is achieved by creating a dialog with the public, as well as specific weather and climate-sensitive sectors and government agencies. This is a transformational process. While the technological advances are important, it is recognized that these must follow the identification of needs and human capacity. Communication comes first then the technology. This is a balance between infrastructure improvements and capacity building. Different communication skills are needed to enable different users to understand the warning process. Finding commonality with target groups is essential. It was emphasized that this is a gradual process that starts with developing a common understanding of Disaster Risk Management (DRM). Emphasis on Delivering Services The Shanghai experience confirms the WB approach that it is important to go beyond the technical level. The overall goal is service delivery. Knowing how to work with other agencies is essential. The challenge is to develop this without strong capacity and with limited financial resources. One approach may be to bring WB clients to Shanghai to see how this can be done; in particular, to learn how to avoid problems. In addition, every effort should be made to apply the expertise and experience of SMS and CMA in less conducive and institutional and financial environments. The disaster risk management goals are common to most countries. The ultimate purpose is to provide weather and climate related warning information from a single platform. To mitigate disaster, all agencies must leverage this platform to respond appropriately. The basis for this is good communication and collaboration between agencies impacted by weather and climate. The Shanghai MHEWS concept can be applied with necessary adjustments elsewhere in least developed countries. Political Commitment Strong political commitment from government is essential. This is the foundation of the development of a coordinated, multi-agency, multi-hazard early warning system. It is recognized that a legal and regulatory framework is very important since differentiated responsibilities are clear and standard operating procedures can be achieved. Training The existing international experience of CMA and SMS with countries in Asia is a good basis for cooperation with the WB. While there is a lot of training for staff of NMSs offered through WMO, most of this is focused on technical competence and does not include key users of NMSs services. CMA could work with WB to develop courses targeted to the specific needs of WB clients. This is especially important as warning services extend from the primary weather warnings for civil protection to other impacts, such as health, food and water security, etc. 5 P age

6 Incorporating Experience of CMA and SMS into WB Projects There is an opportunity to incorporate the experience of MHEWS into WB Projects strengthening NMSs. CMA has suggested developing common targets, sharing knowledge about country needs and interventions to better coordinate development initiatives. Standards and Best Practices WMO stresses the importance of standards and best practices, e.g., the Shanghai Multi Hazard Early Warning System (MHEWS), the Vigilance system operated by Météo France and the Europe-wide MeteoAlarm. There is, however, currently no common worldwide practice. The approach taken in the development of Shanghai MHEWS focuses on risk reduction systems that can be applied bottom up within developing countries. Applying this experience to countries in the region will encourage data sharing and exchange of information and know-how between developing countries. This would be a form of South-South collaboration. It was suggested that WB could play a role in the development and implementation of standards by helping countries apply relevant Standard Operating Procedures (e.g., warnings, technology, information). The SMS strategic process could be shared with WB client countries. Better Use of WMO Regional Centers It was recognized that many WB clients would not be able to develop completely stand-alone forecasting services and that this might not even be desirable. Making more use of global and regional centers was seen as desirable to use their existing capacity rather than countries trying to develop everything for themselves. Strengthening and using regional centers to help support national services was identified as a cost-effective way to help countries develop and sustain their services. It would be possible to strengthen regional Numerical Weather Prediction and help countries customize their services, thus creating a unified warning system based on the increasing common practice of the four color system (green, yellow, orange, red representing different levels of alert) used in China and many European countries. This would also enable countries to focus more effort on the principal role of communicating warnings and delivering other services to the public and weather and climate sensitive sectors. Collaboration between different regions and centers is vital to share expertise and to contribute to improving the existing information services, such as the Severe Weather Information Centre (SWIC) and World Weather Information Service (WWIS), operated on behalf of WMO by the Hong Kong Observatory. Currently there are not enough Members contributing information to these websites. There is also a need for more consistency between regional centers. Different Regional Specialized Meteorological Centers (RSMCs) issue tropical cyclone warnings, but formats are inconsistent- which makes it difficult to create a fully integrated system. It was recognized that this is an issue for both WMO and WB to get regional centers together to agree on standardization. Another issue is arranging sustainable financing of these Regional Centers. It is hoped that the World Bank can play a role in identifying and testing jointly with WMO long-term financial instruments which will increase sustainability and effectiveness of RSMCs performance. Practical Application of Lessons Learned WB Client Training in China Bring practitioners from WB client countries to learn from experiences of China, including cross-sectorial representatives. Huge advances have occurred in China relatively recently (last 10-years). Show these advances can be used to encourage countries in the region. 6 P age

7 On-the-Job Training and Pairing Include experts from SMS and CMA, in general, to develop on-the-job training programs in WB client countries. Look for opportunities to pair weaker NMSs with advanced NMSs, such as CMA. Develop a Practical Roadmap to Implement MHEWS Based on SMS Experience Develop a procedure to deconstruct the process used by Shanghai in the development of MHEWS to create a step-by-step roadmap that could be implemented by WB clients. Use Shanghai experience as a baseline to help WB clients understand how they could improve their services. Help shift focus of client NMSs to the development of public weather services platform. Small investments can be used to develop a warning system focus on training, procedures, communication and dissemination. Encourage Standardization Based on the best practices of Shanghai MHEWS encourage standardization in warning systems in WB client countries. For example, establishing a framework for emergency response and warning services, helping countries understand their own risks, developing a coordination mechanism, creating a warning delivery systems that translates warning information into single color-coded system, and developing community based plans for action. Reinforce Dialog with Governments Using Shanghai Example Use Shanghai experience to help WB convince governments of the need for investment in hydrometeorological organizations. Reinforce dialog with government. Include legal and regulatory framework in efforts to improve clients NMSs to create a chain of responsibility and accountability in the production, delivery and use of warnings. Participants Feedback on Workshop Overall the WB participants thought that the workshop addressed their needs and that they learned a lot from the experience of Shanghai. They were particularly pleased with the presentations from staff of the SMS, which flowed well from the overall structure of the MHEWS in Shanghai to specific aspects of the system. The level of coordination between government departments and the regulatory framework were identified as important messages for the successful implementation of MHEWS elsewhere. Most of the World Bank participants also thought that there was great value in sharing their own experiences and issues related to current programs in particular countries. This could have been made stronger if there had been more advanced preparation and a discussion focused on common themes emerging from the submissions of each of the TTLs. This would have allowed more time for discussion about how Shanghai had overcome these difficulties and would have required less extensive presentations. Despite this, many thought that the opportunity to present their own experiences was very helpful. These presentations highlighted the large gaps in knowledge that exist between the meteorological community s understanding of warning services, exemplified by the SMS and invited experts, and the WB staff trying to improve warning services in different countries. It highlighted the need for more focus on how to solve specific problems posed by the WB staff. 7 P age

8 The workshop also set aspirational goals that could be used to benchmark new projects in least developed countries and also how these country effort fit into the overall global and regional system. There was also general agreement that this kind of workshop would benefit World Bank clients and future workshops should include both the Bank TTL s and represents from their client countries and institutions. This would be particularly useful for senior managers from NMSs and from the disaster management sector. The Workshop also identified opportunities for South-South cooperation. Plans for the Future Given the success and overall enthusiasm of the participants for this workshop it is proposed to develop similar opportunities in the future. These will include the participation of WB clients as well as TTLs and focus more on the application of the experience of Shanghai to specific country needs presented by the WB and clients. 8 P age

9 Table of Contents ACKNOWLEDGMENTS 2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 3 INTRODUCTION 3 PRESENTATIONS 3 CONCLUSIONS 5 LESSONS LEARNED 5 PRACTICAL APPLICATION OF LESSONS LEARNED 6 PARTICIPANTS FEEDBACK ON WORKSHOP 7 PLANS FOR THE FUTURE 8 INTRODUCTION AND PURPOSE OF WORKSHOP 11 OBJECTIVE 11 VENUE 12 OPENING REMARKS 12 OVERVIEW OF GFDRR 14 OVERVIEW OF WCIDS 14 DISCUSSION 17 CONCEPT OF MULTI-HAZARD EARLY WARNING IN CHINA AND OVERVIEW OF SHANGHAI MHEWS 18 DISCUSSION 20 DEMONSTRATION OF MHEWS MONITORING AND FORECASTING SYSTEMS 22 DISCUSSION 25 DEMONSTRATION OF MHEWS WARNING AND DECISION-MAKING SUPPORT 26 DISCUSSION 28 VISIT TO FORECAST PLATFORM 28 VISIT TO THE PUBLIC WEATHER SERVICE PLATFORM 29 CASE STUDY OF LIGHTNING DISASTER PREVENTION 29 PANEL PRESENTATIONS AND DISCUSSION ON CASE STUDIES 30 PANEL 1 30 DISCUSSION 31 PANEL 2 33 DISCUSSION 37 9 P age

10 REVIEW OF SELECTED ADVANCED WARNING AND ALERT SYSTEMS 38 AGRICULTURAL RISK MANAGEMENT INFORMATION SERVICE 38 DROUGHT WARNING SERVICES IN CHINA 40 WEATHER WARNING IN HONG KONG 42 WMO PROJECTS ON WEATHER WARNINGS 44 EUROPEAN EXAMPLES OF MULTI-HAZARD PARTNERSHIPS, WARNING SYSTEMS AND SERVICES 46 QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS 49 SHANGHAI MUNICIPAL GOVERNMENT EMERGENCY RESPONSE CENTER 52 PANEL DISCUSSION ON MULTI-STAKEHOLDER WARNING SYSTEMS 52 CONCLUSIONS 53 ANNEX 1 WORKSHOP PARTICIPANTS 56 ANNEX 2 WORKSHOP AGENDA 61 ANNEX 3 REGULATIONS ON PREVENTION OF AND PREPAREDNESS FOR METEOROLOGICAL DISASTERS 65 ANNEX 4 STRATEGIC COOPERATION FRAMEWORK FOR METEOROLOGICAL INFORMATION DELIVERY 19 ANNEX 5 WMO GUIDELINES FOR CREATING MEMORANDA OF UNDERSTANDINGS BETWEEN NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES (NMHS) AND DISASTER MANAGEMENT AGENCIES (DMAS) P age

11 Introduction and Purpose of Workshop As a follow-on to the Hyogo Framework for Action in 2006, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) convened a Multi-Hazard EWS Symposium. This symposium identified the Shanghai Emergency Preparedness System developed by the Shanghai Meteorological Service (SMS), as one of four good practices, on which to develop a WMO Multi-Hazard Early Warning System (MHEWS) demonstration project. The project established an advanced multi-hazard early warning system with the aim of increasing the timeliness and effectiveness of responses by improving monitoring, warning and information dissemination through an integrated, multiple hazard approach, and a corresponding crossgovernment, multi-agency response mechanism. Over the past 5 years, the Shanghai MHEWS, under the guidance and support of the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) and Shanghai Municipal Government (SMG), has developed as one of the premier examples of a warning system that engages relevant government departments at the city level to provide timely response to meteorological hazards. Based on this success, the city government is creating an Early Warning Center within the Shanghai Meteorological Service to handle many types of warnings, including but not limited to meteorological phenomena. A lot can be learned from the experience of Shanghai for the development and implementation of similar systems as a part of the modernization of National Meteorological and Hydro-meteorological services (NMSs) elsewhere. The purpose of the workshop was to share this wealth of knowledge and practical experience in the development of MHEWS with World Bank (WB) staff whose portfolios include improving warning systems in the Bank s client countries. The workshop was also an opportunity to exchange ideas between the World Bank staff and technical experts from Shanghai and elsewhere that will help improve warning systems and public weather services in general (See Annex 1 Workshop Participants). Objective The objective of the workshop was to provide a short, hands-on training for World Bank staff. The workshop focused on the development of Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems based on the WMO demonstration project in Shanghai and the guidance that is currently being developed for NMSs by leading experts to reduce the impact of weather, climate and water hazards (see Annex 2 Workshop Agenda). The workshop aimed to accomplish the following: Introduce the Shanghai Multi-Hazard Early Warning System through a hands-on demonstration of how the system operates with an emphasis on the translation of weather information into impact forecasts and specific warnings for different municipal authorities. Provide suggestions on the policies and procedures needed to create an effective warning system applicable to city authorities. Provide insight into the various elements of the warning system including the forecasting modules and decision support systems with an emphasis on how to create impact relevant forecasts and standard operating procedures for the issuance of common warnings. Discuss ways to identify the costs and benefits of warning systems and managing the risks 11 P age

12 Discuss examples of similar systems from a select number of countries and guidelines currently under development to assist NMSs. Exchange ideas between WB staff and invited participants to develop recommendations that can be useful to both WB staff and others involved in the introduction and development of warning systems and public weather services. Venue The Workshop was conducted at the Shanghai Meteorological Service (SMS). Formerly known as the Shanghai Meteorological Bureau, the SMS is part of the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) and reports to both CMA and the Shanghai Municipal Government (SMG) 1. Founded in 1872 as the Xujiahua Observatory, it has conducted continuous weather observations for 140 years. In 1879, it generated and disseminated the earliest typhoon warning, gaining the reputation of the No 1 observatory of the Far East. Today the SMS is home to the Typhoon Monitoring institute, the Public Weather Service Platform and the Shanghai Multi Hazards Early Warning System, a critical supporting structure for the city of Shanghai s disaster prevention and mitigation (DPM). It is developing a new class of weather service professionals whose focus is on interaction with agency focal points, the general public and highly weather-sensitive users across a range of sectors. It has 680 employees and several district level units. It is also the CMA East China Regional Center responsible for coordination among 11 provinces and Special Municipalities (such as Shanghai) with a combined population of over 360 Million people. Under the guidance of the CMA and with the support of the WMO, the SMS was responsible for the implementation of MeteoWorld at the World Expo in Shanghai in 2010, the first ever meteorology themed pavilion in the history of the World Expo. Opening Remarks Dr. Tang Xu, Director-General, East Regional Center & Director-General Shanghai Meteorological Service, CMA Dr. Tang Xu addressed the participants on the occasion of the opening ceremony of the Workshop. He pointed out that the World Bank is a vital global connector of knowledge, learning and innovation for poverty reduction and disaster mitigation and recovery. Since 90% of disasters worldwide are caused by recurrent meteorological-, hydrological- and climate-related hazards, he remarked that Weather Services and the Bank share a common mission and concern on disaster prevention and mitigation. He expressed his pleasure that the workshop, held in Shanghai, aimed to understand how early warning capacity could be adapted to developing countries as a part of their disaster reduction strategy. He affirmed that the CMA attaches high importance to this workshop. He recalled the important role that the Shanghai MHEWS played in reducing the risks of weather-related hazards to the public and infrastructure during 1 The China Meteorological Administration (CMA) is a public institution that is directly affiliated to the State Council. Under a unified and hierarchical management, the meteorological establishments nationwide are led both by the CMA and the local people s governments, with the former as the core leadership. In China, meteorological operational services are operated at five levels: national, regional, provincial, prefectural and county. 12 Page

13 the six-month long World Expo Despite a lot of severe weather events, no disasters occurred at the Expo site thanks to actions taken by the organizers in response to timely warnings produced by the MHEWS. Dr. Tang Xu reminded the participants that the SMS and WB already have very good communication and cooperation. In March 2010, he gave a presentation at World Bank Headquarters about the weather and climate services and disaster prevention and mitigation in Shanghai and in China as a whole. He also pointed out that SMS is an international cooperation leader on behalf of CMA and that the workshop would be a successful beginning of practical collaboration between the SMS and WB that will deepen and expand in the future. Mr. Xu Xianghua, Director of International Cooperation Division of the International Cooperation Department of CMA Mr. Xu Xianghua added his welcome to the participants on behalf of the CMA and expressed his thanks to Dr. Tang Xu and his staff for hosting the workshop. He pointed out that China is a big country with the largest population in the world. It also features many different climatic zones. 71% of natural disasters in China are meteorologically-related disasters. The average total economic loss caused by meteorologically-related disasters during the past 20 years accounts for 2.2% of China s GDP. In combating with different types of meteorological disasters, CMA together with its meteorological services at different levels has accumulated rich experience and has established its unique meteorological disaster reduction framework by formulating meteorological laws and regulations, building working mechanism for DPM, establishing an integrated observation system ranging from satellites to Automatic Weather Stations (AWS), developing its own forecasting models such as the GRAPES, and establishing an effective and efficient early warming delivery system. CMA also adheres to the concept of public-, security and resource-oriented meteorological service. All those ensure that meteorological activities are fully integrated in the national and local government sustainable development plans and strategies. CMA is a very active player in international disaster reduction activities. It has adopted the policy of free access to its meteorological satellites. CMA has organized 40 China Study Tours for the Director-Generals or senior officials of National Meteorological Services from other developing countries, sharing itsexperience in modernization of the meteorological services. They also conduct short-term training courses on various subjects through the WMO Regional Training Centres in Nanjing and Beijing. In cooperation with the WMO and the Ministry of Education, CMA provides long-term scholarships in meteorology and hydrology to African and Asian developing countries. CMA also provide meteorological equipment and instruments to other developing countries to enhance their infrastructure. In particular, Mr. Xu mentioned CMACast (CMA s satellite-based data broadcast system which covers most of Asia and Pacific region) and MICAPS (a powerful forecasting tool) system that CMA donated to 19 countries in Asia in One comment from the Lao Meteorological Department was that the CMACast and MICAPS system would greatly enhance their forecasting capability. Mr. Xu pointed out that this is not the first time for the cooperation between CMA and World Bank. In fact, in about 30 years ago, the automatic weather stations (AWSs) donated to China by the World Bank triggered China s meteorological modernization process. With the development of China s meteorological service, Mr. Xu hoped that CMA can also contribute more to the international disaster reduction and sustainable development by working with the World Bank and other international organizations. Therefore, on behalf of CMA, he expressed the wish to cooperate with the World Bank in the future for the benefits of global society. 13 P age

14 Overview of GFDRR Mr. Francis Ghesquiere, Program Manager, World Bank GFDRR Established in 2006, the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) is a partnership of 39 countries and 8 international organizations committed to helping developing countries reduce their vulnerability to natural hazards and adapt to climate change. The partnership s mission is to mainstream disaster risk reduction (DRR) and climate change adaptation (CCA) in country development strategies by supporting a country-led and managed implementation of the Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA). GFDRR s Partnership Charter, revised in April 2010, sets its original mission, rationale, and governance structure. GFDRR has three main business lines to achieve its development objectives at the global, regional and country levels. Track-I: Global and Regional Partnerships Track-II: Mainstreaming Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) in Development Track-III: Standby Recovery Financing Facility (SRFF) for Accelerated Disaster Recovery Seven initiatives that complement the three tracks and Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) programs are: South-South Cooperation Program for Disaster Risk Reduction The Economics of Disaster Risk Reduction GFDRR Labs Disaster Risk Financing & Insurance Strengthening Weather and Climate Information and Decision-Support Systems (WCIDS) Capacity Development Gender Overview of WCIDS Dr. Vladimir Tsirkunov, Coordinator, Weather and Climate Information and Decision Support Systems (WCIDS) program of the GFDRR Dr. Tsirkunov described how WCIDS has been established within the WB to help strengthen Hydrometeorological services. The importance of Hydrometeorological services as a cost effective means of preventing damages and loss of life due to weather and hydrological hazards, as well as creating economic benefit to society, has been well established. The weakness of NMSs in many developing countries and least developed countries is a limiting factor in the capacity of these countries to cope adequately with meteorological and hydrological hazards because they lack the capacity for early detection, briefing, warning and coordination. The situation has worsened in the last years primarily due to underfunding, low visibility, economic reforms and in some instances military conflict. The massive underfunding of NMSs has led to a deterioration of observing networks and outdated technology, lack of modern equipment and forecasting methods, poor quality of services, insufficient support for R&D and an erosion of the workforce resulting in a lack of trained specialists in many NMSs. Consequently, there are a lot of losses that could have been avoided if weather agencies were more 14 P age

15 developed. Weak institutions and low observing, forecasting and service delivery capacity, are now seen as a development obstacle, which the WB, as a development institution, should help to minimize. Unfortunately the modernization needs greatly exceed traditional national budget instruments. Therefore there is a need for a more programmatic approach. Table 1 illustrates the situation in Europe and Central Asia. Table 1 Result of Assessments of Economic Efficacy of Hydromet Modernization (Europe and Central Asia, Countries Estimated cost of modernization program, Yr.2000$ million/ (exceedance of NMHS annual budget, times) Investment efficiency, % (across 7 years), benchmarking Albania 4.0 (9) Azerbaijan 6.0 (3.5) Armenia 5.3 (12) Belarus 11.5 (4) Georgia 6.0 (13) Investment efficiency, % (across 7 years), sectorspecific assessment Serbia 4.4 (0.8) Ukraine 45.3 (6) Kazakhstan 14.9 (3.5) Turkmenistan 19.5 (17) Tajikistan 3.5 (17.5) The World Bank s approach to strengthening hydrometeorological services has changed since the mid 1990 s. Previously, the emphasis was on fragmented efforts to patch up services by supplying individual sensors and partial systems. Since the late 1990 s the focus has been on a more holistic approach and today most of the efforts focus on modernizing entire NMSs, including institutional strengthening, improving observing networks and forecasting, and strengthening service delivery. Current investment exceeds $500M. Overall, the WB is scaling up its support to NMSs. It has an advisory role to help convince governments of the high societal and economic significance of weather, climate and hydrological information and services, and the importance of making meteorological and hydrological agencies the center of this support. It is also helping NMSs raise their profile in their respective governments using the results of economic assessments, cost benefit analyses and analytical work, and identifying priority investment needs, and facilitating financial support. These modernization activities are packaged within larger projects in disaster reduction, water resources management, agricultural support and public health improvement. The Bank is also building stronger partnerships with WMO and leading NMSs. It is also investigating how to use the new financial instruments of climate adaptation and climate investment funds for supporting NMSs. 15 P age

16 Currently, there are more than a dozen operations in various stages of implementation and many more at the conceptual stage. Table 2 presents some cases of operations from the current pipeline of operations: Table 2 Highlights of the pipeline of operations supporting NMSs Project/component title Funding (USD) Stage of preparation Mexico. Modernizing the National Meteorological Service to Address Variability and Climate Change in the Water Sector in Mexico 105 M (IBRD) Appraisal Vietnam. Managing Natural Hazards Project Component 2: Strengthening Weather Forecasting and Early Warning 30 M (IDA) Pre-appraisal Nepal. Building Resilience to Climate Related Hazards 25 M (PPCR/IDA) Pre-appraisal Russia. Hydromet Modernization Project - II (IBRD) Preparation Mozambique. Strengthening Hydrological & Meteorological Information Services for Climate Resilience Ghana. Strengthening Hydrological and Meteorological Agencies 10-15M (PPCR/IDA) Preparation (IDA) Identification Zambia. Strengthening Climate Information System 9.5M (PPCR/IDA) Identification Africa. Regional Climate Risk Management Project 25M Identification The GFDRR program for Strengthening Weather and Climate Information and Decision Support Systems (WCIDS) was launched in May 2011 as a vehicle to coordinate many of these activities on behalf of the WB. The WCIDS has three pillars Analytical support and knowledge management; capacity building and technical assistance; and support to the WB portfolio development and operations. One of its main aims exemplified by the Shanghai workshop is to develop good practices for Disaster Risk Management Regional coordinators and World Bank Task Team Leaders. Some of the key lessons learned so far form the Hydrometeorological modernization programs are: Building institutional capacity is far more challenging than building infrastructure and the former is critical for the sustainability of the modernization effort A systematic and integrated (NMS-wide) approach, which is end-to-end, versus focusing on spate elements of NMS system is preferable and less risky. This avoids bottlenecks and inefficiencies and is likely to be more sustainable. There is no universal or quick solution for improving NMSs. Long term support to NMSs is needed (+10 years); however, there is a lack of long-term financial instruments to ensure such support. 16 P age

17 Better coordination is needed between donors Sustainability depends on government investment beyond external donor support to cover operations and maintenance of new systems and services and retain qualified staff. The appropriate legal framework is highly desirable to establish the respective responsibilities of various government departments and agencies dependent on weather, climate and hydrological information. Emphasis on service delivery is essential for sustainability as well as the means to deliver the expected outcomes of a modernized NMS. Warnings are the key outputs of an NMS and these depend on stakeholder engagement, good communication, targeted warnings to specific communities, agencies and industries and the need for users to understand how to respond to the information. Discussion The group discussed some of the challenges of making investments sustainable. It was recognized that this is very difficult. SMS pointed out that they faced this challenge. For a long time decision makers and the public did not see the value of the forecast products and services. So, not only was it necessary to develop forecasting technologies and a platform for the delivery of services, but it was also important to make forecasting services relevant to the disaster risk community and to communicate the benefits to the public and social and economic sectors. It is critical to make the weather forecasts and warnings understood by the general public and this is the probably the only way that government investment will be sustained. For many NMSs, this is a substantial change. It was pointed out that many NMSs put nearly all of their resources in forecasting and observations, but pay much less attention to the delivery of services that are needed by society. Changing this mindset would create demand-driven services. NMSs should be a high priority for government because they can provide useful products and services. The competence in the production of forecasts, however, is often not matched by comparable capacity in service delivery. Examples of good practices exist; Shanghai is one example. It was also pointed out that the US Department of Agriculture recognized the importance of weather information for agriculture and developed a partnership with the US National Weather Service to deliver weather and climate information in support of critical national agricultural decisions. This service is highly regarded, thus creating more demand for similar services. One of the issues for WB Task Team Leads (TTLs) is the need to establish baselines and targets to measure and demonstrate progress in improving services. It was recognized that finding reliable and effective data can be very difficult and that there is considerable variation between countries in this respect. The experience of China indicates that it is important to set targets to evaluate performance. In the case of Shanghai, the requirements of the government were analyzed and a set of indicators were developed. These indicators were submitted to CMA and SMG for approval. These indicators focused on five key areas: 17 P age

18 1. Monitoring and forecast accuracy: For example, tropical cyclone track, quantity and impact of rain and wind, accuracy of warnings for specific areas 2. Public service: The key is not only accuracy of meteorological indicators, but also there is a need to make sure that the public can apply the results of the forecast. The forecasts need to be disseminated early and they need to be evaluated to see if they are understood and can be applied. 3. Social and Economic: There is a need to ensure smooth operation of social and economic activities; i.e., there needs to be special services for industries, such as power generation including the forecasting of power consumption based on weather. 4. Government efficiency: There is need to support government efficiency 5. Human resources: Human resource capacity needs to be developed not only for weather forecasting but also managing the multi hazard early warning system. Concept of Multi-hazard early warning in China and Overview of Shanghai MHEWS Dr. Tang Xu, Director-General, East Regional Center & Director-General Shanghai Meteorological Service, CMA The Shanghai Multi-Hazard Early Warning System was set up to respond to the need to provide warnings of hydrometeorological hazards in a mega-city with a population exceeding 23 million. Much of the city s infrastructure is vulnerable to disruption and a coordinated warning and response system is essential. There are three essential components to an effective warning system: a) Government Leadership; b) multi-agency coordination; and c) community participation. Government leadership supports policies and preparedness; supports organizing and coordinating disaster prevention and mitigation; and provides financial support for infrastructure and disaster relief. Multi-agency coordination includes the development of the warning platform and mechanisms that ensure inter-sectoral emergency response and interaction based on agreed levels of early warning signals. Community participation includes preparedness; drills; the development of joint preparedness teams; and raising awareness on self-rescue and mutual-rescue. An important step in the development of any system is the establishment of the appropriate legal and regulatory frameworks. In the case of multi-hazard early warning, national regulations have been implemented for Prevention and emergency response preparedness and monitoring and warning (see Annex 3 Regulations on Prevention of and Preparedness for Meteorological Disasters). In addition, the Meteorology Law of China defines the roles, responsibilities and authorities of weather departments as well as their operational functions. The Flood control law of China also includes requirements for meteorological services to provide weather forecasts to flood control headquarters. At the city level, the Shanghai government passed regulations implementing the Meteorological Law of China and clarifying the role of the SMS in DPM, and this framework continues to be strengthened to ensure the appropriate response at the grassroots level of society to ensure the best possible warnings and response to these warnings. 18 P age

19 Coordination with Shanghai municipal government involves at least 15 separate ministries and departments, each of which has signed agreements establishing operating procedures. The DPM approach in Shanghai focuses on managing the potential cascade of disasters stemming from an initial hydrometeorological hazard. The primary, secondary and sometimes tertiary impacts require wellordered coordination and cooperation to support highly sensitive users as well as the general public. This multi-agency coordination and multi-phase response requires Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs) and has led to the concept of the five earlies 1) Early monitoring and warning 2) Early Briefing (these are briefing provided to special users and agencies well in advance of public warnings) 3) Early Warning 4) Early Dissemination 5) Early Handling The multi-hazard early warning system consists of a technical component and management component. The technical component is built around six platforms: 7) Multi-hazard detection and monitoring 8) Forecast and warning information generation 9) Decision-making support 10) Warning information dissemination 11) Multi-hazard database 12) Multi-agency network system The management component has two parts: 3) Multi-agency coordination and cooperation mechanism consisting of government organizations 4) Social community protection system consisting of the basic social units such as communities The platforms for detection, monitoring and forecasting are extensive including a dense network of in situ and remotely sensed observations and numerical weather prediction models. These provide the forecaster with the tools to support the decision-making platform, which includes all aspects of information sharing and communication as part of the public weather service function of SMS. The warning information dissemination platform ensures that messages are consistent and actionable, disseminated through multiple channels, communicated quickly and received effectively. As needed, at this stage, weather and climate related hazard information is combined with other hazard information. The dissemination system uses color-coded symbols, which are consistent across all agencies responsible for providing warnings. These are disseminated via TV, telephone, websites, warning towers, radio, mobile short messages and large electronic displays. The database platform consists of historical and real-time data supplied by all of the agencies and sectors at risk, including water affairs, maritime, rural traffic, air traffic, food, sanitation, agriculture and electric power. More than seventeen departments currently support this database. The multi-agency network system supports the development of SOPs. Currently there are thirty-six different joint response mechanisms among twenty-five government departments. This approach facilitates efficient cooperation in emergency management. Early briefing prepares the government departments to take action ahead of joint response and prior to issuing warnings to the public. 19 P age

20 Another important element, ensuring the efficiency of the system is the incorporation of the warning system into the Public Weather Service 2 operations. This is a system anchored by the Public Service Officer (PSO), who is responsible for the dissemination of routine as well as hazard-related information. In summary, the core concepts of MHEWS are 1. The establishment of laws, regulations and standardized operating procedures and mechanisms for multiagency response, which clearly identify roles and responsibilities. 2. At the technical level, early detection, briefing and warning dissemination, based on good observations and the resulting forecasts, are essential. These basic concepts are transferable and less dependent on major investment and more on proper coordination across government. 3. SMS developed and defines this approach as CLAP, namely: Critical locations PWS delivery focuses on the city s safety sensitive hot spots, such as airports, transportation network and logistics infrastructure Line Delivery of PWS as one chain from monitoring, warning, prevention, mitigation and rescue Area Combining emergency response mechanisms with the daily urban grid management system People PWS is critical for decision-makers, social groups, individuals and the general public. 4. Combining routine operations with emergency response operations 5. Risk assessment and risk management based on specific types of meteorological hazard 6. Training stakeholders public and partner agencies Discussion The group discussed how to make meteorological information more relevant to specific sector users. In Shanghai, the risks from different kinds of meteorological hazards was analyzed, especially the domino effect of the initial hazard. Then each of the different industries and users sensitive to the specific hazards was engaged. One issue is forecast uncertainty, how to strike a balance maximizing warning times and minimizing uncertainties. SMS uses probability-based forecasts, which characterize the uncertainty in the forecast that can be useful information for the most sensitive-sectors, which may take preventative action despite a low probability of occurrence if there is a high risk of preventative losses. Understanding and communicating uncertainty is critical. The process of developing a comprehensive early warning system started in Shanghai about 5 years ago and the process is ongoing. The capacity to observe and forecast meteorological hazards has developed substantially over the last twenty-years culminating in forecasts utility to inform decisions. Areas prone to disasters with good simulations and strategies, and a seamless approach to forecasting (all time scales) will eventually eliminate unhelpful forecasts, such as somewhere, at some time there will be rain, completely. However, the atmosphere is a chaotic system and therefore exact prediction is unlikely and not necessarily helpful. Improving decision-making in uncertainty is important. 2 For more information on the function of public weather services visit WMO website 20 P age