# A Response Surface Model to Predict Flammable Gas Cloud Volume in Offshore Modules. Tatiele Dalfior Ferreira Sávio Souza Venâncio Vianna

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1 A Response Surface Model to Predict Flammable Gas Cloud Volume in Offshore Modules Tatiele Dalfior Ferreira Sávio Souza Venâncio Vianna

2 PRESENTATION TOPICS Research Group Overview; Problem Description; Methodology; Results; Conclusion and next steps.

3 Research Group Overview University of Campinas (Unicamp) Founded on October 5, Has three campuses and comprises 22 units of teaching and research

4 Research Group Overview The Faculty of Chemical Engineering (FEQ) was created in April of 1990 as a Department of UNICAMP. Today, it is divided in four departments: DDPP, DEMBio, DESQ and DEPro.

5 Problem Description Gas explosion safety is a concern in industrial plants, particulary in oil and gas industry. The offshore oil installations involve risk of accidents with a major loss-potential. Explosion of the offshore platform Piper-Alpha located in the North Sea in 1988.

6 Problem Description Explosion Risk analysis help risk decisions to prevent and control accidents: - Quantify the blast overpressure generate over distance and time. - Gas dispersion study. Three-dimensional analysis using CFD Mathematical models (in conceptual design)

7 Problem Description The flammable gas cloud size in na offshore module: - Ventilation: wind speed and direction and geometry of the module. - Release: leak rate, direction and location and gas density. Cleaver et al (1999): L = V 1/3 R = m ρs U v L 2 V f L 3 R3/2

8 Problem Description The use Response Surface Methodology (RSM) to estimate flammable gas cloud size in offshore modules (Huser and Kevernvold, 2000): R = Q g Q a = m ρg Q aref uref u V f V = C C 1 R P 1 + C 2R P 2 V fmax V = V fmax V α = α w A + Bcos α α max α α w

9 Methodology Geometry and Mesh: ANSYS ICEM Unstructured mesh

10 Methodology Release conditions: - Natural gas composition: Component Molar Fraction C C C C C CO Pressurized pipeline with average pressure 200kgf/cm 2 N

11 Methodology Variables of Interest: Ventilation and Leak rate: R (Cleaver et al. (1999) e Huser e Kvernvold (2000)) 0.03 < R < 0.3 Wind and Leak directions: ϕ (phi)

12 Methodology Wind Directions:

13 Methodology Leak Directions:

14 Methodology Leak and Wind directions: ϕ (phi) 180 ϕ = 0 leak and wind in the same direction ϕ = 180 leak and wind in opposite direction

15 Methodology Leak and Wind direction: ϕ (phi) Quadrant 01 ϕ= 0, 45 e Quadrant 02 ϕ= 90, 135 e 180 Quadrant 03 ϕ= 180, 225 e Quadrant 04 ϕ= 270, 315 e 360 0

16 Methodology Design of the Simulations Scenario Quadrant ϕ R Design of Experiments 3 2 for each quadrant

17 Methodology Boundary Conditions and Solver Parameters Region Bondary Condition Surfaces No slip Leakage Prescribed mass flow Ventilation Prescribed velocity Contour of the Computational Domain Relative Pressure = 0 ANSYS CFX Parameres Value or type Reference Pressure 1 atm Flow Regime Stationary and Incompressible Turbulence Model k - ε Advection Scheme Upwind Time Scale Automatic (1.0) Convergence Criterion RSM Maximum Residual 1x10-5 Mín. and Máx. Number of Iteractions

18 Results A gas leak Simulation of an axisymmetric jet: - Air - Orifice Diameter = 2,7mm - Mach Number at the exit = 1 Birch (1987) - Air density at the exit = 2,25kg/m 3

19 Results Simulation of an axisymmetric jet Comparison between the experimental data and the result of the simulation of an axisymmetric jet.

20 Results Simulation of a high aspect ratio jet - Air - Average Pressure = 137,9kPa - Mass flow rate = 0,15kg/s Wakes (2002)

21 Results Simulation of a high aspect ratio jet Comparison between the experimental data and the result of the simulation of a high aspect ratio jet.

22 Results Wind Analysis Superficial atmospheric boundary layer: u z = u κ ln z z 0 ψ z L (01) u z = u κ ln z z 0 (02) Hanna (1982) u z = u 10 z 10 p (03)

23 Results Wind speed profile tests Values of L, z 0 e p for neutral atmospheric and sea surface Monin-Obukhov lenght (L) (m) > 100 Surface roughness (z 0 ) (m) 1x10-4 Power coefficient (p) 0.15 AICHE (2000) Sea level: 0 m Platform level: 55 m

24 Results Simulation of the wind speed profile using equations 01 (a); 02 (b) and 03 (c).

25 Results Example of gas dispersion simulation R = 0.15 ϕ = 135 LFL: 5% UFL: 15%

28 Results Validation of the Model Comparison between the CFD results with the values predicted by the model considering random simulated cases.

29 Conclusion and next steps A Response Surface Model was developed for prediction of flammable gas cloud size in an offshore module using two main variables: R e ϕ; The results provided by the model were well fitted with CFD data within a tolerance of 50%; The model is a simplified prediction form and can be applied in early stages of the design when little is known about the geometry or when the geometrical model is not available;

30 Conclusion and next steps Through the model every possible release scenario can be assessed in a risk analysis, which is infeasible in CFD simulations; The proposed model can be very useful when combining with Monte Carlo techniques to calculate probabilistic cloud sizes.

31 Thank you!

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