A Response Surface Model to Predict Flammable Gas Cloud Volume in Offshore Modules. Tatiele Dalfior Ferreira Sávio Souza Venâncio Vianna

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1 A Response Surface Model to Predict Flammable Gas Cloud Volume in Offshore Modules Tatiele Dalfior Ferreira Sávio Souza Venâncio Vianna

2 PRESENTATION TOPICS Research Group Overview; Problem Description; Methodology; Results; Conclusion and next steps.

3 Research Group Overview University of Campinas (Unicamp) Founded on October 5, Has three campuses and comprises 22 units of teaching and research

4 Research Group Overview The Faculty of Chemical Engineering (FEQ) was created in April of 1990 as a Department of UNICAMP. Today, it is divided in four departments: DDPP, DEMBio, DESQ and DEPro.

5 Problem Description Gas explosion safety is a concern in industrial plants, particulary in oil and gas industry. The offshore oil installations involve risk of accidents with a major loss-potential. Explosion of the offshore platform Piper-Alpha located in the North Sea in 1988.

6 Problem Description Explosion Risk analysis help risk decisions to prevent and control accidents: - Quantify the blast overpressure generate over distance and time. - Gas dispersion study. Three-dimensional analysis using CFD Mathematical models (in conceptual design)

7 Problem Description The flammable gas cloud size in na offshore module: - Ventilation: wind speed and direction and geometry of the module. - Release: leak rate, direction and location and gas density. Cleaver et al (1999): L = V 1/3 R = m ρs U v L 2 V f L 3 R3/2

8 Problem Description The use Response Surface Methodology (RSM) to estimate flammable gas cloud size in offshore modules (Huser and Kevernvold, 2000): R = Q g Q a = m ρg Q aref uref u V f V = C C 1 R P 1 + C 2R P 2 V fmax V = V fmax V α = α w A + Bcos α α max α α w

9 Methodology Geometry and Mesh: ANSYS ICEM Unstructured mesh

10 Methodology Release conditions: - Natural gas composition: Component Molar Fraction C C C C C CO Pressurized pipeline with average pressure 200kgf/cm 2 N

11 Methodology Variables of Interest: Ventilation and Leak rate: R (Cleaver et al. (1999) e Huser e Kvernvold (2000)) 0.03 < R < 0.3 Wind and Leak directions: ϕ (phi)

12 Methodology Wind Directions:

13 Methodology Leak Directions:

14 Methodology Leak and Wind directions: ϕ (phi) 180 ϕ = 0 leak and wind in the same direction ϕ = 180 leak and wind in opposite direction

15 Methodology Leak and Wind direction: ϕ (phi) Quadrant 01 ϕ= 0, 45 e Quadrant 02 ϕ= 90, 135 e 180 Quadrant 03 ϕ= 180, 225 e Quadrant 04 ϕ= 270, 315 e 360 0

16 Methodology Design of the Simulations Scenario Quadrant ϕ R Design of Experiments 3 2 for each quadrant

17 Methodology Boundary Conditions and Solver Parameters Region Bondary Condition Surfaces No slip Leakage Prescribed mass flow Ventilation Prescribed velocity Contour of the Computational Domain Relative Pressure = 0 ANSYS CFX Parameres Value or type Reference Pressure 1 atm Flow Regime Stationary and Incompressible Turbulence Model k - ε Advection Scheme Upwind Time Scale Automatic (1.0) Convergence Criterion RSM Maximum Residual 1x10-5 Mín. and Máx. Number of Iteractions

18 Results A gas leak Simulation of an axisymmetric jet: - Air - Orifice Diameter = 2,7mm - Mach Number at the exit = 1 Birch (1987) - Air density at the exit = 2,25kg/m 3

19 Results Simulation of an axisymmetric jet Comparison between the experimental data and the result of the simulation of an axisymmetric jet.

20 Results Simulation of a high aspect ratio jet - Air - Average Pressure = 137,9kPa - Mass flow rate = 0,15kg/s Wakes (2002)

21 Results Simulation of a high aspect ratio jet Comparison between the experimental data and the result of the simulation of a high aspect ratio jet.

22 Results Wind Analysis Superficial atmospheric boundary layer: u z = u κ ln z z 0 ψ z L (01) u z = u κ ln z z 0 (02) Hanna (1982) u z = u 10 z 10 p (03)

23 Results Wind speed profile tests Values of L, z 0 e p for neutral atmospheric and sea surface Monin-Obukhov lenght (L) (m) > 100 Surface roughness (z 0 ) (m) 1x10-4 Power coefficient (p) 0.15 AICHE (2000) Sea level: 0 m Platform level: 55 m

24 Results Simulation of the wind speed profile using equations 01 (a); 02 (b) and 03 (c).

25 Results Example of gas dispersion simulation R = 0.15 ϕ = 135 LFL: 5% UFL: 15%

26 Results Development of the Response Surfaces Quadrant 01 Quadrant 02 Quadrant 03 Quadrant 04

27 Results Quadrant 01 Quadrant 02 Quadrant 03 Quadrant 04

28 Results Validation of the Model Comparison between the CFD results with the values predicted by the model considering random simulated cases.

29 Conclusion and next steps A Response Surface Model was developed for prediction of flammable gas cloud size in an offshore module using two main variables: R e ϕ; The results provided by the model were well fitted with CFD data within a tolerance of 50%; The model is a simplified prediction form and can be applied in early stages of the design when little is known about the geometry or when the geometrical model is not available;

30 Conclusion and next steps Through the model every possible release scenario can be assessed in a risk analysis, which is infeasible in CFD simulations; The proposed model can be very useful when combining with Monte Carlo techniques to calculate probabilistic cloud sizes.

31 Thank you!

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