Biblioteca del Banco de México

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1 Biblioteca del Banco de México Boletín mensual Agosto 2014 CONTENIDO Nuevas adquisiciones Documentos publicados por investigadores del Banco de México Documentos publicados recientemente por otros bancos centrales u organismos gubernamentales Síguenos en: 1

2 NUEVAS ADQUISICIONES Balance y perspectivas de la política exterior de México Humberto Garza Elizondo, Jorge A. Schiavon, Rafael Velázquez Flores, editores Improving the test process: implementing improvement and change: a study guide for the ISTQB expert level module Graham Bath, Erik van Veenendaal Malware forensics field guide for Linux systems: digital forensics field guides Cameron H. Malin, Eoghan Casey, James M. Aquilina; Curtis W. Rose, technical editor GDP: a brief but affectionate history Diane Coyle Macroeconomics: the development of modern methods for policy analysis William Scarth Social network analysis John Scott Global interdependence, decoupling and recoupling edited by Yin-Wong Cheung and Frank Westermann The limits of institutional reform in development changing rules for realistic solutions Matt Andrews Consensus forecasts global outlook: editorial team Suyin Kan The new geography of innovation: clusters, competitiveness and theory Xavier Tinguely Running the world s markets: the governance of financial infrastructure Ruben Lee Configuration management best practices: practical methods that work in the real world Robert Aiello and Leslie Sachs Immovable property under VAT edited by Robert F. van Brederode Data mining for business intelligence: concepts, techniques, and applications in Microsoft Office Excel with XLMiner Galit Shmueli, Nitin R. Patel, Peter C. Bruce The essentials of telecommunications management: a simple guide to understanding a complex industry Jayraj Ugarkar Asset pricing and portfolio choice theory Kerry E. Back Statistics of random processes: I. general theory Robert S. Liptser, Albert N. Shiryaev; translated by A.B. Aries; translation editor, Stephen S. Wilson Fortran 90 programming T.M.R. Ellis, Ivor R. Philips, Thomas M. Lahey The Econometrics of panel data: handbook of theory and applications edited by László Mátyás and Patrick Sevestre Yaqui resistance and survival: the struggle for land and autonomy Evelyn Hu-DeHart DOCUMENTOS PUBLICADOS POR INVESTIGADORES DEL BANCO DE MEXICO Generalized diffusion indexes of Mexican state and sectorial economic activity Santiago Guerrero; Juan Carlos Martínez-Ovando Fiscal multipliers in a panel of countries Juan Contreras; Holly Battelle 2

3 Railroads and economic growth: a trade policy approach Pérez-Cervantes Fernando Bounds for the variance, design effect and coefficient of variation of proportions in two-stage cluster sampling with equal sizes Padilla Alberto DOCUMENTOS PUBLICADOS RECIENTEMENTE POR OTROS BANCOS CENTRALES U ORGANISMOS GUBERNAMENTALES Flights to safety Lieven Baele, Geert Bekaert, Koen Inghelbrecht, and Min Wei Behavioral economics and macroeconomic models John C. Driscoll and Steinar Holden Navigating Constraints: The Evolution of Federal Reserve Monetary Policy, Mark A. Carlson and David C. Wheelock Relative liquidity and future volatility Marcela Valenzuela, Ilknur Zer, Piotr Fryzlewicz, and Thorsten Rheinlander Lights, camera,...income! Estimating poverty using national accounts, survey means, and lights Maxim Pinkovskiy and Xavier Salai-Martin Dealer financial conditions and lender-of-last-resort facilities Viral V. Acharya, Michael J. Fleming, Warren B. Hrung, and Asani Sarkar International banking and liquidity risk transmission: lessons from across countries Claudia M. Buch and Linda S. Goldberg The revolving door and worker flows in banking regulation David Lucca, Amit Seru, and Francesco Trebbi Consumption in the shadow of unemployment Iliana Reggio, Rodolfo G. Campos Social interactions and the retirement age Niels Vermeer, Maarten van Rooij and Daniel van Vuuren Migrants choice of remittance channel: do general payment habits play a role? Anneke Kosse, Robert Vermeulen This is what s in your wallet... And how you use it Tamás Briglevics, Scott Schuh Diferencias en las remuneraciones al trabajo industrial en México Gustavo Alarcón Martínez y Marcos E. Domínguez Viera 3

4 Nuevas adquisiciones Balance y perspectivas de la política exterior de México Humberto Garza Elizondo, Jorge A. Schiavon, Rafael Velázquez Flores, editores México, D.F.: El Colegio de México: Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas, Clasificación: B171 El presente libro convoca a un selecto grupo de especialistas para examinar las diferentes áreas y temas de la política exterior en el sexenio de Felipe Calderón. Los autores son expertos reconocidos en sus temas y provienen de diversas universidades, enfocadas en la investigación y la docencia. Los colaboradores de este volumen buscan dar respuesta a tres preguntas de investigación: primera, se identifican patrones de continuidad o cambio en la política exterior del gobierno de Calderón con respecto a gobiernos anteriores?; segunda, de qué manera afectaron los procesos o cambios internacionales el desempeño de la política exterior de México en ese sexenio?; tercera, en qué medida los factores internos impactaron en el comportamiento de la política exterior? El libro está dividido en tres secciones: la primera evalúa, en términos generales y transversales, la política exterior del gobierno de Calderón; la segunda analiza esta política desde una perspectiva geográfica, en la que se exploran las relaciones internacionales de México con las principales regiones del mundo, como América del Norte, América Latina, Europa, Asia, Medio Oriente y África; la última sección estudia los temas más relevantes de la agenda de la política exterior: seguridad y narcotráfico, migración, derechos humanos, comercio exterior, cooperación internacional, diplomacia cultural y la agenda multilateral. Los ensayos que aquí se presentan son de utilidad no sólo para profesores y estudiantes de las relaciones internacionales, sino también para los responsables de tomar decisiones en materia de política exterior y para un público amplio interesado en los asuntos mundiales. 4

5 Improving the test process: implementing improvement and change: a study guide for the ISTQB expert level module Graham Bath, Erik van Veenendaal Santa Barbara, California: Rocky Nook, Clasificación: B331 This book covers the syllabus for the Improving the Test Process module of the International Software Testing Qualifications Board (ISTQB) Expert Level exam. To obtain certification as a professional tester at the Expert Level, candidates may choose to take a course given by an ISTQB accredited training provider and then sit for the exam. Experience shows that many candidates who choose this path still require a reference book that covers the course. There are also many IT professionals who choose selfstudy as the most appropriate route toward certification. This book can be used both as a preparation guide for those planning to take the ISTQB Expert Level certification exam and as a practical guide for experienced testing professionals who want to develop their skills in improving test processes. Malware forensics field guide for Linux systems: digital forensics field guides Cameron H. Malin, Eoghan Casey, James M. Aquilina; Curtis W. Rose, technical editor Waltham, Massachusetts: Syngress, Clasificación: M251 The Syngress Digital Forensics Field Guides series includes companions for any digital and computer forensic investigator and analyst. Each book is a toolkit with checklists for specific tasks, case studies of difficult situations, and expert analyst tips. This compendium of tools for computer forensics analysts and investigators is presented in a succinct outline format with cross-references to supplemental appendices. It is designed to provide the digital investigator clear and concise guidance in an easily accessible format for responding to an incident or conducting analysis in a lab. A compendium of on-the-job tasks and checklists. Specific for Linux-based systems in which new malware is developed every day. Authors are world-renowned leaders in investigating and analyzing malicious code. 5

6 GDP: a brief but affectionate history Diane Coyle Princeton, New Jersey; Princeton University: Clasificación: C881 Why did the size of the U.S. economy increase by 3 percent on one day in mid or Ghana s balloon by 60 percent overnight in 2010? Why did the U.K. financial industry show its fastest expansion ever at the end of just as the world s financial system went into meltdown? And why was Greece s chief statistician charged with treason in 2013 for apparently doing nothing more than trying to accurately report the size of his country s economy? The answers to all these questions lie in the way we define and measure national economies around the world: Gross Domestic Product. This entertaining and informative book tells the story of GDP, making sense of a statistic that appears constantly in the news, business, and politics, and that seems to rule our lives--but that hardly anyone actually understands. Diane Coyle traces the history of this artificial, abstract, complex, but exceedingly important statistic from its eighteenth- and nineteenth-century precursors through its invention in the 1940s and its postwar golden age, and then through the Great Crash up to today. The reader learns why this standard measure of the size of a country s economy was invented, how it has changed over the decades, and what its strengths and weaknesses are. The book explains why even small changes in GDP can decide elections, influence major political decisions, and determine whether countries can keep borrowing or be thrown into recession. The book ends by making the case that GDP was a good measure for the twentieth century but is increasingly inappropriate for a twenty-first-century economy driven by innovation, services, and intangible goods. 6

7 Macroeconomics: the development of modern methods for policy analysis William Scarth Cheltenham, United Kingdom: Edward Elgar, Clasificación: 339 S287 This important textbook offers a comprehensive look into the two main traditions in contemporary macroeconomics New Classical and Keynesian and examines the work of economists who have drawn on principles from both traditions to form a new, integrated approach known as New Neoclassical Synthesis. Importantly, this provides the theoretical foundation for much of current mainstream economics and the work done by central banks around the world. With a dual focus on research methods and policy applications, this book bridges the gap between intermediate macroeconomic and advanced graduate-level texts, making it an ideal resource for senior undergraduate and Masters students in applied economics programs. Key topics include: a concise summary of intermediate macroeconomics, including the foundational ideas of both the New Classical and Keynesian traditions; the Lucas critique of standard methods for evaluating policy design; debt sustainability and austerity vs. stimulation debate; optimal inflation rates; tax reform and growth analysis; alternative monetary policies for pursuing price stability; and, theories of unemployment. Students and instructors will find additional useful resources on the book s companion website, including practice questions for each chapter. 7

8 Social network analysis John Scott Los Angeles, California: SAGE, Clasificación: S The Third Edition of this bestselling text has been fully revised and updated to include coverage of the many developments on social network analysis over the last decade. Written in a clear and accessible style, the book introduces these topics to newcomers and non-specialists and gives sufficient detail for more advanced users of social network analysis. Throughout the book, key ideas are discussed in relation to the principal software programs available for social network analysis. The book provides a comprehensive overview of the field, outlining both its theoretical basis and its key techniques. Building upon the core ideas of points, lines and paths, John Scott builds a framework of network analysis that covers such measures as density, centrality, clustering, centralization, and specialization. He identifies the various types of clique, component, and circle into which networks are formed, and he outlines an approach to socially structured positions within networks. A completely new chapter in this edition discusses recent work on network dynamics and methods for studying change over time. A final chapter discusses approaches to network visualization. Global interdependence, decoupling and recoupling edited by Yin-Wong Cheung and Frank Westermann Cambridge, Massachusetts: MIT, Clasificación: 337 G5615 One lens through which to view global economic interdependence and the spillover of shocks is that of decoupling (and then recoupling). Decoupling between developed and developing countries can be seen in the strong economic performance of China and India relative to that of the United States and Europe in the early 2000s. Recoupling then took place as developing countries sank along with the developed world during the deepening financial crisis of This volume examines patterns of global economic interdependence and the propagation of shocks in an increasingly integrated world economy. The contributors discuss such topics as the transmission of exogenous shocks; causes of business cycle synchronicity; the differences between global and regional shocks; the South-South trade relationship and its effect on decoupling; vertical specialization and Mexico s manufacturing exports; growth prospects in China, the United States, and Europe after the financial crisis; and the evolving role of the U.S. dollar in international monetary architecture. 8

9 The limits of institutional reform in development changing rules for realistic solutions Matt Andrews New York: Cambridge University, Clasificación: A565 This book explains why many institutional reforms in developing countries have limited success and suggests ways to overcome these limits. The author argues that reforms often fail to make governments better because they are introduced as signals to gain short-term support. These signals introduce unrealistic best practices that do not fit developing country contexts and are not considered relevant by implementing agents. The result is a set of new forms that do not function. However, there are realistic solutions emerging from institutional reforms in some developing countries. Lessons from these experiences suggest that reform limits, although challenging to adopt, can be overcome by focusing change on problem solving through an incremental process that involves multiple agents. Consensus forecasts global outlook: editorial team Suyin Kan... [et al.] London, England: Consensus Economics, Clasificación: C Consensus Economics has just completed a new, annual report containing individual country, regional and world long-term forecasts covering the years for the global economy. This 36 page document covers over 50 countries, including those listed below, which represent over 92% of the $60 trillion world economy on a GDP basis (virtually all industrialized economies). Published at a time when growth has slowly recovered in the global economy, while new uncertainties arise and old uncertainties persist, this report includes precise forecasts for both the short- and long-term. What will be the impact as the US moves away from its policy of monetary stimulus? How soon will the euro zone be able to fully recover from recession? How much will the pace of growth within the BRIC emerging nations slow and what will this mean for the rest of the global economy - in the long term? How will the trajectory of future oil and commodity prices impact global inflation and monetary policy? 9

10 The new geography of innovation: clusters, competitiveness and theory Xavier Tinguely New York : Palgrave Macmillan, Clasificación: T588 It is now well established that innovation is the main engine of competitiveness and economic growth. However, in this modern fast-paced world, the inherent nature of the innovation process has changed. On the one hand, the rapid technological revolution or the emergence of new countries on the international economic stage has underlined a shift towards a globalization of the economy. On the other hand, another trend towards a spatial concentration of economic and innovative activity has been identified. Despite the widening of the geographical options offered by globalization, production and innovation still appear particularly concentrated in specific locations and clusters are the ultimate representation of this regionalization stream. The New Geography of Innovation assesses both the theoretically and empirically intertwined but surprisingly still relatively unexplored relationship between innovation, clusters and multinational enterprises in today s economy. Based on a unique database of patent applications at the European Patent Office, this book not only emphasizes the marked discrepancies in terms of inventive performance between Swiss regions but also identifies the country s main inventive clusters, offers new insights on the internationalization of the innovation process and provides exclusive evidence of the importance of foreign clusters as a source of new knowledge. 10

11 Running the world s markets: the governance of financial infrastructure Ruben Lee Princeton, New Jersey: Princeton University, Clasificación: L477 The efficiency, safety, and soundness of financial markets depend on the operation of core infrastructure--exchanges, central counter-parties, and central securities depositories. How these institutions are governed critically affects their performance. Yet, despite their importance, there is little certainty, still less a global consensus, about their governance. Running the World s Markets examines how markets are, and should be, run. Utilizing a wide variety of arguments and examples from throughout the world, Ruben Lee identifies and evaluates the similarities and differences between exchanges, central counter-parties, and central securities depositories. Drawing on knowledge and experience from various disciplines, including business, economics, finance, law, politics, and regulation, Lee employs a range of methodologies to tackle different goals. Conceptual analysis is used to examine theoretical issues, survey evidence to describe key aspects of how market infrastructure institutions are governed and regulated globally, and case studies to detail the particular situations and decisions at specific institutions. The combination of these approaches provides a unique and rich foundation for evaluating the complex issues raised. Lee analyzes efficient forms of governance, how regulatory powers should be allocated, and whether regulatory intervention in governance is desirable. He presents guidelines for identifying the optimal governance model for any market infrastructure institution within the context of its specific environment. Running the World s Markets provides a definitive and peerless reference for how to govern and regulate financial markets. 11

12 Configuration management best practices : practical methods that work in the real world Robert Aiello and Leslie Sachs Upper Saddle River, New Jersey: Addison-Wesley, Clasificación: A288 As IT systems have grown increasingly complex and missioncritical, effective configuration management (CM) has become critical to an organization s success. Using CM best practices, IT professionals can systematically manage change, avoiding unexpected problems introduced by changes to hardware, software, or networks. Now, today s best CM practices have been gathered in one indispensable resource showing you how to implement them throughout any agile or traditional development organization. Configuration Management Best Practices is practical, easy to understand and apply, and fully reflects the day-today realities faced by practitioners. Bob Aiello and Leslie Sachs thoroughly address all six pillars of CM: source code management, build engineering, environment configuration, change control, release engineering, and deployment. They demonstrate how to implement CM in ways that support software and systems development, meet compliance rules such as SOX and SAS-70, anticipate emerging standards such as IEEE/ISO 12207, and integrate with modern frameworks such as ITIL, COBIT, and CMMI. Coverage includes: Using CM to meet business objectives, contractual requirements, and compliance rules; enhancing quality and productivity through lean processes and just-in-time process improvement; getting off to a good start in organizations without effective CM; implementing a Core CM Best Practices Framework that supports the entire development lifecycle; mastering the people side of CM: rightsizing processes, overcoming resistance, and understanding workplace psychology; architecting applications to take full advantage of CM best practices; establishing effective IT controls and compliance; and, managing tradeoffs and costs and avoiding expensive pitfalls. 12

13 Immovable property under VAT edited by Robert F. van Brederode Alphen aan den Rijn, The Netherlands: Kluwer Law International, Clasificación: I33 The ideal value-added tax (VAT) would carry an economic efficiency ratio of 100 as, in theory, VAT should not be susceptible to exemptions and rate variations. However, practical reality tells a different story, and it will come as no surprise to learn that the VAT systems of almost all countries remain far from the benchmark, and that this is particularly the case when VAT is applied to real estate. This book describes and analyses VAT treatment of real estate transactions in six representative countries: Australia, Canada, Germany, Japan, Mexico, and the United Kingdom. As in any jurisdiction, the VAT schemes covered must accommodate complex factual matrices that demand consistent, fair, and equal treatment. Among these VAT determinants the authors, each an expert in the national tax law of one of the six countries, address the following: types of real estate sales; long versus short term leases; commercial versus residential use; newly constructed versus existing property; status of the parties involved as taxable or non-taxable for VAT; taxable and tax-free supplies; special rules for charities, mooring facilities, aircraft, sports facilities, etc.; subdivision of apartments into title units; commercial residential premises; construction work; cross-border supply of construction work and services; and transfer of a going concern. The discussions also include the practical areas of accounting for VAT, administrative compliance, personal tax liability, and VAT refund and overpayment certification processes, as well as thorough consideration of relevant case law and examination of frequently litigated matters. Each author has designed his or her chapter to ensure that the technical nuances of each system are explained. 13

14 Data mining for business intelligence: concepts, techniques, and applications in Microsoft Office Excel with XLMiner Galit Shmueli, Nitin R. Patel, Peter C. Bruce Hoboken, New Jersey: John Wiley, Clasificación: S In today s world, businesses are becoming more capable of accessing their ideal consumers, and an understanding of data mining contributes to this success. Data Mining for Business Intelligence, which was developed from a course taught at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology s Sloan School of Management, and the University of Maryland s Smith School of Business, uses real data and actual cases to illustrate the applicability of data mining intelligence to the development of successful business models. Featuring XLMiner, the Microsoft Office Excel add-in, this book allows readers to follow along and implement algorithms at their own speed, with a minimal learning curve. In addition, students and practitioners of data mining techniques are presented with hands-on, business-oriented applications. An abundant amount of exercises and examples are provided to motivate learning and understanding. The essentials of telecommunications management: a simple guide to understanding a complex industry Jayraj Ugarkar Bloomington, Indiana: AuthorHouse, Clasificación: U26 Telecommunications industry in 21st century is not about networks anymore, it is all about what the customer wants, it is all about services. There is no other industry sector going through such a large-scale change in its underlying core business model. The industry has moved from being network centric with few basic services like voice, TV, and broadband, to a fast paced, vibrant customer centric industry with tens of new services launched every month. The old setup with separate industries for voice, video, and data is shattered. In its place, is a brand new industry providing converged services spanning across Communication, Media, and Entertainment (CME) businesses. An explosion of new technologies like IP Multimedia Systems (IMS), Next Generation Networks (NGN), WiMax, 3G/4G are supporting this trend. New services like IPTV, Mobile TV, VoIP, and Web 2.0 based Value Added Services (VAS) are redefining the possibilities. 14

15 Asset pricing and portfolio choice theory Kerry E. Back New York: Oxford University, Clasificación: B126 In Asset Pricing and Portfolio Choice Theory, Kerry E. Back at last offers what is at once a welcoming introduction to and a comprehensive overview of asset pricing. Useful as a textbook for graduate students in finance, with extensive exercises and a solutions manual available for professors, the book will also serve as an essential reference for scholars and professionals, as it includes detailed proofs and calculations as section appendices. Topics covered include the classical results on single-period, discrete-time, and continuous-time models, as well as various proposed explanations for the equity premium and riskfree rate puzzles and chapters on heterogeneous beliefs, asymmetric information, non-expected utility preferences, and production models. The book includes numerous exercises designed to provide practice with the concepts and to introduce additional results. Each chapter concludes with a notes and references section that supplies pathways to additional developments in the field. 15

16 Statistics of random processes: I. general theory Robert S. Liptser, Albert N. Shiryaev; translated by A.B. Aries; translation editor, Stephen S. Wilson Berlin, Germany: Springer, Clasificación: L767a 2001 The subject of these two volumes is non-linear filtering (prediction and smoothing) theory and its application to the problem of optimal estimation, control with incomplete data, information theory, and sequential testing of hypothesis. The required mathematical background is presented in the first volume: the theory of martingales, stochastic differential equations, the absolute continuity of probability measures for diffusion and Ito processes, elements of stochastic calculus for counting processes. The book is not only addressed to mathematicians but should also serve the interests of other scientists who apply probabilistic and statistical methods in their work. The theory of martingales presented in the book has an independent interest in connection with problems from financial mathematics. In the second edition, the authors have made numerous corrections, updating every chapter, adding two new subsections devoted to the Kalman filter under wrong initial conditions, as well as a new chapter devoted to asymptotically optimal filtering under diffusion approximation. Moreover, in each chapter a comment is added about the progress of recent years. Fortran 90 programming T.M.R. Ellis, Ivor R. Philips, Thomas M. Lahey Wokingham, England: Addison-Wesley, Clasificación: E47 This complete tutorial by three authors who contributed to the development of the FORTRAN 90 standard places a special emphasis on science and engineering applications. Building on the lead author successful work, FORTRAN 77 Programming, the book provides a complete explanation of the new features of FORTRAN 90. Features: Comprehensive coverage of all the major language features, with clear guidelines on the differences between the 77 and 90 standard; Case studies illustrating its applications in scientific problem solving; Two authoritative chapters on coding numerical methods in Fortran 90; and, an early introduction to procedures and modules to encourage a structured approach to programming. 16

17 The Econometrics of panel data: handbook of theory and applications edited by László Mátyás and Patrick Sevestre Dordrecht, The Netherlands: Kluwer Academic, Clasificación: E1964 This volume provides a general overview of the econometrics of panel data, both from a theoretical and from an applied viewpoint. Since the pioneering papers by Kuh (1959), Mundlak (1961), Hoch (1962), and Balestra and Nerlove (1966), the pooling of cross-section and time-series data has become an increasingly popular way of quantifying economic relationships. Each series provides information lacking in the other, so a combination of both leads to more accurate and reliable results than would be achievable by one type of series alone. Over the last 30 years much work has been done: nvestigation of the properties of the applied estimators and test statistics, analysis of dynamic models and the effects of eventual measurement errors, etc. These are just some of the problems addressed by this work. In addition, some specific difficulties associated with the use of panel data, such as attrition, heterogeneity, selectivity bias, pseudo panels etc. have also been explored. The first objective of this book, which takes up Parts I and II, is to give as complete and up-to-date a presentation of these theoretical developments as possible. Part I is concerned with classical linear models and their extensions; Part II deals with nonlinear models and related issues: logit and probit models, latent variable models, incomplete panels and selectivity bias, and point processes. The second objective is to provide insights into the use of panel data in empirical studies. Since the beginning, interest in panel data has been empirically based, and over time has become increasingly important in applied economic studies. This is demonstrated by growing numbers of conferences and special issues of economic journals devoted to the subject. 17

18 Yaqui resistance and survival: the struggle for land and autonomy Evelyn Hu-DeHart Madison, Wisconsin: University of Wisconsin, Clasificación: H884 Among Mexico s indigenous populations, the Yaqui Indians of Sonora have most successfully repelled threats to their identity, land, and community. Interested in explaining how the relatively small nation withstood four centuries of contact with white culture, Evelyn Hu-DeHirt focuses here on the Indians response to shifting environmental pressures in the period 1820 to 1910 an increasingly violent, and ultimately decisive, chapter in their lives. 18

19 Documentos publicados por investigadores del Banco de México Disponibles en la página web del Banco de México: Generalized diffusion indexes of Mexican state and sectorial economic activity Santiago Guerrero; Juan Carlos Martínez-Ovando México, D.F.: Banco de México, p. -- (Documentos de investigación; ). (Disponible sólo en español). Descripción: In this research we develop generalized diffusion indexes for the Mexican state and sectorial economic activity. These indexes summarize the dynamics of the local cycles in a way that they are consistent with the aggregate economic activity. The proposed index includes three dimensions of the local dynamic activity: i) the variation of local cycles (positive or negative), ii) the magnitude of these variations and iii) the weight of local components (states and/or sectors) on the aggregate economic activity. The main contribution of these indexes is that they admit sub-aggregations of regions and/or sectors that are more precise and informative than their counterparts. We show two applications. In the first one, we develop the generalized diffusion index for the Mexican economy using state economic coincident indexes. In the second one, we create a diffusion index of the state and sectorial economic activity using the State Quarterly Indicator of Economic activity (ITAEE by its Spanish acronym) produced by INEGI. 19

20 Fiscal multipliers in a panel of countries Juan Contreras; Holly Battelle México, D.F. : Banco de México, p. -- (Documentos de investigación; ). (Disponible sólo en inglés). Descripción: We estimate fiscal multipliers in a panel of countries using dynamic panel techniques and quarterly data for 55 countries. By using a GMM estimator and lagged dependent variables as instruments in a SVAR model, we attempt to correct for the biases present in this setting, to alleviate concerns about causality, and to decrease potential effects of third factors. Contrary to previous research, we find no strong evidence of monetary accommodation, a positive and larger fiscal multiplier in developing than in high-income countries, and zero in high-debt countries and in flexible exchange rates countries. 20

21 Railroads and economic growth: a trade policy approach Pérez-Cervantes Fernando México, D.F.: Banco de México, p. -- (Documentos de investigación; ). (Disponible sólo en inglés). Descripción: What was the impact of railroads in the output of the United States during the 19th century and how can a New Trade model help answer this question? In order to respond I follow three steps. First, I construct a new digital railroad data set and pair it with geographic and topographic features of the U.S. territory to estimate travel times between every pair of U.S. counties for every year between 1840 and Second, I use these results, together with a Ricardian model of trade and U.S. county output data from the 19th century, to estimate county gains from trade using a fixed-point algorithm. Third, I estimate ounterfactuals with the railroads built up to a certain year. My estimates suggest that there was a lot of migration anticipating railroad construction and not the other way around. However, leaving all factors of production fixed, if the railroads were made suddenly unavailable in 1890 there would have been a 9.6% reduction in output, but in 1900, after the financial crisis, the impact would have been less than 9%. 21

22 Bounds for the variance, design effect and coefficient of variation of proportions in two-stage cluster sampling with equal sizes Padilla Alberto México, D.F.: Banco de México, p. -- (Documentos de investigación; ). (Disponible sólo en español). Descripción: In the estimation of proportions using simple random sampling, the maximum value of the variance can be used to compute the sample size when there is no information of the variable of interest. We extend this result to the estimation of proportions under two-stage cluster sampling with equal sizes, showing the expression for the maximum variance. As a by-product it is immediate to obtain bounds for the design effect and the coefficient of variation of the proportion estimator. Some examples are given related to the computation of the bounds. 22

23 Documentos publicados recientemente por otros bancos centrales u organismos gubernamentales Flights to safety Lieven Baele, Geert Bekaert, Koen Inghelbrecht, and Min Wei Washington, D.C.: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, p.: il. (Finance and economics discussion series; ). Behavioral economics and macroeconomic models John C. Driscoll and Steinar Holden Washington, D.C.: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, p.: il. (Finance and economics discussion series; ). 23

24 Navigating Constraints: The Evolution of Federal Reserve Monetary Policy, Mark A. Carlson and David C. Wheelock Washington, D.C.: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, p.: il. (Finance and economics discussion series; ). Relative liquidity and future volatility Marcela Valenzuela, Ilknur Zer, Piotr Fryzlewicz, and Thorsten Rheinlander Washington, D.C.: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, p.: il. (Finance and economics discussion series; ). Lights, camera,...income! Estimating poverty using national accounts, survey means, and lights Maxim Pinkovskiy and Xavier Sala-i-Martin New York City, New York: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, p. il. (Staff Reports; no. 669). 24

25 Dealer financial conditions and lender-of-last-resort facilities Viral V. Acharya, Michael J. Fleming, Warren B. Hrung, and Asani Sarkar New York City, New York: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, p. il. (Staff Reports; no. 673). International banking and liquidity risk transmission: lessons from across countries Claudia M. Buch and Linda S. Goldberg New York City, New York: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, p. il. (Staff Reports; no. 675). The revolving door and worker flows in banking regulation David Lucca, Amit Seru, and Francesco Trebbi New York City, New York: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, p. il. (Staff Reports; no. 678). 25

26 Consumption in the shadow of unemployment Iliana Reggio, Rodolfo G. Campos Madrid, España: Banco de España, p. il. (Documentos de trabajo ; no. 1411). Social interactions and the retirement age Niels Vermeer, Maarten van Rooij and Daniel van Vuuren Amsterdam, The Netherlands: De Nederlandsche Bank, p.: il. (Working paper; no. 426). Migrants choice of remittance channel: do general payment habits play a role? Anneke Kosse, Robert Vermeulen Frankfurt am Main, Germany: European Central Bank, p.: il. (Working paper; no. 1683). 26

27 This is what s in your wallet... And how you use it Tamás Briglevics, Scott Schuh Frankfurt am Main, Germany: European Central Bank, p.: il. (Working paper; no. 1684). Diferencias en las remuneraciones al trabajo industrial en México. Gustavo Alarcón Martínez y Marcos E. Domínguez Viera En: Realidad, Datos y Espacio. Revista Internacional de Estadística y Geografía, vol.5 no.1 enero-abril México D.F.: Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía. 27

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