Fiscal Impact Analysis of the Annexation Proposed by the Town of Beaumont. Leduc County FINAL REPORT

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1 Fiscal Impact Analysis of the Annexation Proposed by the Town of Beaumont Leduc County FINAL REPORT Suite 2220 Sun Life Place Street Edmonton, Alberta T5J 3H1 T F March 15, 2015

2 Suite 2220 Sun Life Place Street Edmonton, Alberta T5J 3H1 T F March 15, 2015 Brownlee LLP 2200 Commerce Place Street Edmonton AB T5J 4G8 Attention:! Subject:! Barrry Sjolie, Q.C. Town of Beaumont Annexation Fiscal Impact Analysis Please find enclosed our final report of the Fiscal Impact Analysis to reflect the position of Leduc County in response to the Town of Beaumont s annexation application. If you have any questions on this submission, please give me a call. Sincerely, Applications Management Consulting Ltd. Per: Darryl Howery Principal

3 Contents 1. Introduction! Leduc County Submissions! Purpose of this Analysis! Structure of the Report! Overview of the Proposed Annexation! Current Development in the Proposed Annexation Area! Estimate of Annexation Area Assessment! Fiscal Impacts of the Town s Proposed Annexation! Review of Town s Fiscal Impact Analysis! Adequacy of the Town s Fiscal Impact Analysis! Accuracy of the Town s Fiscal Analysis! Analysis of Town s Proposed Annexation! Conversion of the Town s Financial Analysis to Real Dollars! Evaluation of the Town s Financial Forecast! Fiscal Impact Analysis of the Town s Proposed Annexation on Town Ratepayers! Fiscal Impact Analysis of the Town s Proposed Annexation on County Ratepayers! Fiscal Impact Analysis of the Town s Proposed Annexation on Ratepayers in the Proposed Annexation Area! Conclusions! Fiscal Impacts of the Alternate Growth Scenario! Definition of the Alternate Growth Scenario! Fiscal Impact Analysis of the Alternate Growth Scenario! Fiscal Impact Analysis of the Alternate Growth Scenario on Town Ratepayers! Fiscal Impact Analysis of the Alternate Growth Scenario on County Ratepayers! Fiscal Impact Analysis of the Alternate Growth Scenario on Ratepayers in the Alternate Growth Area! Conclusions! Financial Position of the Town! Fiscal Capacity of Beaumont! Residential / Non-Residential Equalized Assessment! Equalized Assessment Per Capita! Residential Equalized Assessment per Dwelling Unit! Residential Municipal Tax Rates! Household Income! Non-Residential Municipal Tax Rates! i

4 Municipal Debt! Projected Non-Residential Assessment Ratio! Conclusions! Conclusions! Fiscal Impact of the Town s Annexation Proposal! Fiscal Impact of the Alternate Growth Scenario! Fiscal Position of the Town! Appendix A: Town s Proposed Annexation - Fiscal Impact Analysis Detail - Beaumont! Appendix B: Town s Annexation Proposal - Fiscal Impact Analysis Detail - Leduc County! Appendix C: Alternate Growth Scenario - Fiscal Impact Analysis Detail - Beaumont! Appendix D: Alternate Growth Scenario - Fiscal Impact Analysis Detail - Leduc County! Resumés! ii

5 1. Introduction The Town of Beaumont has applied to annex 1,336.1 ha hectares of land from Leduc County to meet what it states as its requirements to accommodate growth over a 50 year period. The reasons cited for the annexation include the following: 1 The Town requires additional land to meet is growth requirements for the next 50 years. The Town will effectively run out of residential land in 11 years. The Town has effectively depleted its supply of non-residential lands. Annexation is necessary to strengthen its economic base to support the provision of municipal services. In support of the Town s annexation application, two reports were provided. Town of Beaumont Growth Study 2014 Update prepared by ISL Engineering and Land Services (herein referred to as the ISL Report ) which outlines the current available supply of land, projections of growth for the Town and an estimate of the land needed from annexation to accommodate a 50 year supply of land. 2 Town of Beaumont: Annexation Fiscal Impact Analysis prepared by CORVUS Business Advisors (herein referred to as the Corvus Report ) that provides a financial forecast for the Town with annexation to 2040 (25 years), as well as an estimated impact of the proposed annexation on Leduc County LEDUC COUNTY SUBMISSIONS In response to the Town s annexation application, Leduc County commissioned the following studies: Review of the Beaumont 2014 Growth Study prepared by Brown & Associates Planning Group (herein referred to as the Brown Report. In this report, an alternate projection of growth for the Town is provided as is an associated Alternate Growth Scenario. 4 Town of Beaumont Annexation Review - Transportation and Municipal Servicing Response prepared by McElhanney Consulting Services Ltd. (herein referred to as the McElhanney Report ) that reviews the hard infrastructure requirements identified in the Corvus Report and provides an estimate of these 1 Town of Beaumont Annexation Application, Binder 3, Legal Argument, pages Beaumont Growth Study 2014 Update, ISL Engineering and Land Services, November Town of Beaumont: Annexation Fiscal Impact Analysis, CORVUS Business Advisors, November Review of the Beaumont 2014 Growth Study, Brown & Associates Planning Group, March 2015 Leduc County - Fiscal Impact Analysis of Proposed Annexation by Town of Beaumont - Final Report! 1

6 costs required to support development in the proposed Alternate Growth Scenario defined in the Brown Report. 5 The information in these reports have been used to help evaluate the fiscal impact analysis prepared by the Town (Corvus Report) and evaluate the proposed Alternate Growth Scenario as defined in the Brown Report PURPOSE OF THIS ANALYSIS The purpose of this analysis is to evaluate the long term fiscal impacts of the Town s proposed annexation on the ratepayers in both the Town of Beaumont and Leduc County. The analysis considers the incremental effects the proposed annexation will have on the financial position of the Town and County, including changes to municipal revenues and expenditures associated with providing services to the ratepayers in the proposed Annexation Area. The potential financial impacts of the proposed annexation have been viewed from each of three perspectives: Town Ratepayers: This perspective examines how the proposed annexation would affect the municipal tax rates for ratepayers who reside in the Town of Beaumont. County Ratepayers: This perspective examines how the proposed annexation would affect the municipal tax rates for ratepayers who reside in Leduc County, but outside the proposed Annexation Area. Ratepayers in the Proposed Annexation Area: This perspective examines how the proposed annexation would affect the municipal tax rates for ratepayers who reside in the proposed Annexation Area. This analytical framework has been used to complete the following: An evaluation of the fiscal impact analysis documented in the Corvus Report as it pertains to the growth of the Town and annexation area defined in the ISL Report. An analysis of the fiscal impacts of the proposed Alternate Growth Scenario defined in the Brown Report. Further, this report also addresses one of the issues raised by the Town in support of annexation that being the financial sustainability of the Town both with and without annexation, and for both the Town s proposed annexation as well as the Alternate Growth Scenario STRUCTURE OF THE REPORT Overview of the Proposed Annexation: This section provides an overview of the information regarding the proposed annexation that is relevant to the fiscal impact analysis. Fiscal Impact Analysis of the Town s Proposed Annexation: This section of the report provides an evaluation of the fiscal impact analysis of the Town s proposed annexation as presented in the Corvus Report. 5 Town of Beaumont Annexation Review - Transportation and Municipal Servicing Review, prepared by McElhanney Consulting Services Ltd., March 2015 Leduc County - Fiscal Impact Analysis of Proposed Annexation by Town of Beaumont - Final Report! 2

7 Fiscal Impact Analysis of the of the Alternate Growth Scenario: This section of the report provides an evaluation of the fiscal impact analysis of the Alternate Growth Scenario as defined in the Brown Report. Fiscal Capacity of the Town: This section provides an overview of the current financial health of the Town and fiscal capacity. Conclusions: This section provides an overview of the main conclusions of the report. Leduc County - Fiscal Impact Analysis of Proposed Annexation by Town of Beaumont - Final Report! 3

8 2. Overview of the Proposed Annexation On February 11, 2014, The Town of Beaumont Council passed a motion to proceed with a formal annexation application to annex 21 quarter sections (approximately 1,344 gross hectares) from Leduc County. This motion was subsequent to an original notice of annexation submitted by the Town of Beaumont on April 30, 2103 to annex 24 sections. The amended notice of the proposed annexation was sent to the Municipal Government Board and Leduc County on February 19, The Town s proposed Annexation Area comprises: Nine quarter sections north of the Town Eight quarter sections west of the Town Four quarter sections south the Town. The location of the proposed Annexation Area is depicted in Figure 1. Leduc County - Fiscal Impact Analysis of Proposed Annexation by Town of Beaumont - Final Report! 4

9 Figure 1: Town of Beaumont s Proposed Annexation Area 6 6 Town of Beaumont, Amended Notice of Proposed Annexation (February 19, 2014). Schedule A. Leduc County - Fiscal Impact Analysis of Proposed Annexation by Town of Beaumont - Final Report! 5

10 2.1. CURRENT DEVELOPMENT IN THE PROPOSED ANNEXATION AREA The lands within the proposed Annexation Area are districted as Agriculture in Leduc County s Land Use District Map and are primarily undeveloped aside from some residences and structures. The proposed annexation includes 27 occupied dwelling units for an estimated population of approximately 83 people. Based on current assessment in the proposed annexation area, there are also some commercial and oilfield structures. Transferring jurisdictional control of the proposed Annexation Area to the Town of Beaumont will result in a direct increase in population and dwelling units of only 0.52% (based on 2014 estimates) and an increase in the Town s taxable assessment base of 0.59%. The Town s inventory of roads maintained would increase by 15.8%. With annexation, the County s population and dwelling unit count decreases by only 0.61% and 0.54% (based on 2014 estimates), respectively, and the County s taxable assessment base decreases by 0.19%. The County s inventory of maintained roads decreases by 0.53%. There is a significant change in land area that would result from annexation. For the Town, the total land area will increase by approximately 130%. This compares to a 0.50% decrease for the County. The impact of the proposed annexation on selected dimensions for each municipality is summarized in the table below. Leduc County - Fiscal Impact Analysis of Proposed Annexation by Town of Beaumont - Final Report! 6

11 Table 1: Existing Development in the Proposed Annexation Area (2014) 7,8,9,10,11 BASE FIGURES ANNEX AREA TOWN OF BEAUMONT BEFORE ANNEXATION TOWN OF BEAUMONT AFTER ANNEXATION LEDUC COUNTY BEFORE ANNEXATION LEDUC COUNTY AFTER ANNEXATION Population 83 15,823 15,906 13,524 13,441 Dwelling Units 27 5,228 5,255 4,963 4,936 Area (ha) 1,340 1,035 2, , ,006 Roads (km) ,223 2,211 Assessment $13,758,640 $2,351,845,360 $2,365,604,000 $7,129,000,000 $7,115,241,360 Change % Change % Change Population 0.52% -0.61% Dwelling Units 0.52% -0.54% Area (ha) % -0.50% Roads (km) 15.80% -0.53% Assessment 0.59% -0.19% 7! POPULATION: Annex Area - Population estimate based on ISL calculation in Town of Beaumont Growth Study 2014 Update, Appendix A; Town - Based on 2013 municipal census population of 14,916 and population growth rate of 6.08% from 2013 to 2014 under the Town s Medium Scenario in Town of Beaumont Growth Study 2014 Update; Leduc County - Based on the 2013 population reported in Alberta Municipal Affairs Municipal Profile for the County. 8 DWELLING UNITS: Annex Area - Dwelling unit count as identified in material on the County website (Town of Beaumont Proposed Annexation Application.pdf); Town - Based on 2014 population estimate and assumed average household size of 3.03 as per the reported overall average household sizes in the Town s 2012 and 2013 Census Reports; Leduc County - Based on the number of private dwelling units occupied by usual residents as reported in the 2011 Federal Census. 9 AREA: Annex Area - Based on the gross land area identified in the Town s amended notice for proposed annexation (21 quarter sections); Town and County - Land areas are based on the Municipal Profiles prepared by Alberta Municipal Affairs for the respective municipalities. 10 ROADS: Annex Area - Provided by County; Town and County - Based on the length of all open roads maintained (km) as reported in the Municipal Profiles prepared by Alberta Municipal Affairs for the respective municipalities. 11 ASSESSMENT: Annex Area - Based on current assessment data provided by the County (2014 assessment for 2015 tax year). Assessment total includes estimated linear assessment residing in the area; Town - Based on assessment detail provided by the Town for the 2014 Tax Year; County - Based on the County s 2014 tax rate bylaw (Bylaw No ). Leduc County - Fiscal Impact Analysis of Proposed Annexation by Town of Beaumont - Final Report! 7

12 ESTIMATE OF ANNEXATION AREA ASSESSMENT Assessment information for the proposed Annexation Area was provided by Leduc County for both the 2014 and 2015 tax years, including the estimated linear assessment residing in proposed Annexation Area. 12 The most current assessment values were incorporated into the analysis. The proposed Annexation Area includes approximately $13.76 million of taxable assessment. 13 Of this total, the majority (87.3% or $12.02 million) is residential assessment, 6.8% non-residential (commercial and industrial) assessment, 5% farmland assessment, 0.5% linear and 0.5% machinery and equipment assessment. The proposed annexation will result in a transfer of taxing authority of properties in the proposed Annexation Area from Leduc County to the Town of Beaumont. With annexation, Leduc County only loses approximately 0.19% of its taxable assessment base (based on 2014 estimates), while the Town s taxable assessment would increase by 0.59%. The following table summarizes the impacts of the proposed annexation on each municipality s taxable assessment base in the 2014 tax year. 12 Linear assessment in Alberta is regulated and assessed by assessors designated by the Province of Alberta (Alberta Municipal Affairs). For the purposes of this analysis, Leduc County has estimated the following linear assessment residing in the proposed Annexation Area: Wells and Pipelines - $46,000 and Electric Power Systems - $24, The total taxable assessment in the Proposed Annexation Area for the 2014 tax year was slightly less at $13.31 million. Leduc County - Fiscal Impact Analysis of Proposed Annexation by Town of Beaumont - Final Report! 8

13 Table 2: Estimated Impact of Taxable Assessment in Proposed Annexation Area (2014) 14 ANNEX AREA TOWN OF BEAUMONT BEFORE ANNEXATION TOWN OF BEAUMONT AFTER ANNEXATION LEDUC COUNTY BEFORE ANNEXATION LEDUC COUNTY AFTER ANNEXATION Residential $12,016,600 $2,098,029,000 $2,110,045,600 $2,381,710,000 $2,369,693,400 Other Residential $0 $117,560,200 $117,560,200 $0 $0 Farmland $681,690 $75,100 $756,790 $91,790,000 $91,108,310 Non-Residential $927,410 $121,262,200 $122,189,610 $3,244,637,507 $3,243,710,097 Linear $70,700 $14,794,660 $14,865,360 $539,062,493 $538,991,793 Machinery & Equipment $62,240 $124,200 $186,440 $871,800,000 $871,737,760 Total Taxable $13,758,640 $2,351,845,360 $2,365,604,000 $7,129,000,000 $7,115,241,360 Change % Change % Change Residential 0.57% -0.50% Other Residential 0.00% n/a Farmland % -0.74% Non-Residential 0.76% -0.03% Linear 0.48% -0.01% Machinery & Equipment 50.11% -0.01% Total Taxable 0.59% -0.19% Currently, rural residential assessment that is exempt in the County could be 100% taxable in the Town. Also, farm buildings that are exempt in rural communities could be 50% taxable in urban communities. For the purposes of this analysis, it is assumed that, with annexation, farm properties in the proposed Annexation Area would continue to be assessed as they are in the County providing they retain their farm status. 14 Annex Area - Based on 2014 assessment data provided by the County; Town - Based on Town s 2014 Tax Rate Bylaw and Town of Beaumont s Annexation Fiscal Impact Analysis (Corvus, November 2014); County - Based on County s 2014 Tax Rate Bylaw. Leduc County - Fiscal Impact Analysis of Proposed Annexation by Town of Beaumont - Final Report! 9

14 3. Fiscal Impacts of the Town s Proposed Annexation Applications has undertaken a fiscal impact analysis analysis of the Town s proposed annexation. This includes a review of the fiscal impact analysis prepared by the Town as reported in the Corvus Report. Issues associated with the adequacy and accuracy of the financial forecast results provided in the Corvus Report. A restatement of the financial forecast results provided in the Corvus Report in real 2014 dollars. 15 A comparison of the Applications financial analysis of the Town s proposed annexation in real 2014 dollars with the restated Corvus Report results in real 2014 dollars. An analysis of the fiscal impacts of the Town s proposed annexation in real 2014 dollars on ratepayers in the Town, County and proposed annexation area. The analysis and results for each of these areas is provided below REVIEW OF TOWN S FISCAL IMPACT ANALYSIS The review of the financial implications of the Town s proposed annexation as provided in the Corvus Report has resulted in a number of concerns associated with adequacy of analysis provided by the Town and in the analysis as discussed below ADEQUACY OF THE TOWN S FISCAL IMPACT ANALYSIS Upon review of the fiscal impact analysis of the Town s proposed annexation as reported in the Corvus Report, we note the following deficiencies with respect to the Town s submissions regarding the potential fiscal impacts of the proposed annexation. The Corvus Report does not contain a fiscal impact analysis of the proposed annexation, but rather a financial projection of the Town with annexation. An evaluation of impact requires a financial forecast of the Town both with and without annexation. As a result, from the Corvus Report we do not know what the potential impact of the Town s proposed annexation will be on ratepayers in the Town. The Corvus Report does not contain a full fiscal impact analysis of the Town s proposed annexation on County ratepayers. There is a review of some of the factors relevant to impact, but this analysis is not 15 The analysis provided in the Corvus Report inflates costs and revenues but doesn t provide any consideration of inflation or market value adjustments to the assessment base. As a result, it is necessary to restate the revenues and costs in real dollars to have an internally consistent forecast. Leduc County - Fiscal Impact Analysis of Proposed Annexation by Town of Beaumont - Final Report! 10

15 complete as there are no projections of the financial position of the County with and without annexation. The Corvus Report does not provide an analysis of the impact of the Town s proposed annexation on ratepayers in the proposed annexation area. As the Town has proposed that ratepayers in the proposed annexation area should be afforded tax protection for up to 50 years, subject to some conditions, the importance of tax protection has not been analyzed, and no analysis results are provided. As a result, we do not agree with the conclusion stated in the Town s Legal Argument, where it states that The CORVUS Report addresses the financial impacts of the proposed annexation ACCURACY OF THE TOWN S FISCAL ANALYSIS Our review of the details of the Town s financial analysis has identified a number of missing elements as well as some concerns regarding the specific forecasts of other key components of the fiscal impact analysis. This includes the following: The fiscal impact analysis as provided in the Corvus Report includes inflation on all cost and revenue estimates, but does not include any inflation or market value adjustments to the forecast of the assessment base. As a result, there is an internal inconsistency in the financial forecast resulting from applying inflation to some components of the analysis and not applying inflation to others. The resulting tax rate projections cannot be relied upon due to this flaw in the analysis. Conducting a fiscal impact analysis, or financial analysis, in nominal or inflated dollars can cloud what is an impact associated with the problem being analyzed (i.e. annexation) and how much is due to the change in prices due to inflation. As a result, it is recommended that the analysis be completed in real dollars, excluding inflation. The capital plan utilized in the financial forecast presented in the Corvus Report appears to be deficient in the following areas: There is no discussion or description of life cycle costs or replacement costs associated with the acquisition of new assets,. 17 Most notable is the absence of assets contributed through the development process which are paid for by developers but are ultimately the responsibility of the municipality (e.g. neighbourhood roads, water, sewer and storm systems). As a result, it appears that these costs were not considered or included in the analysis. 18 It is not clear that the analysis in the Corvus Report includes a full consideration of the life cycle and replacement costs to maintain the existing assets of the Town. It is not clear that the capital plan for the Town contains all the new non-linear infrastructure required to maintain current service levels. 16 Town of Beaumont Annexation Application, Binder 3, Legal Argument, This is stated in various was in each of the following: Principle 6 on page 13, page, Principle 9 on page 14 and Principle 14 on page Life cycle costs include those costs associated with the required maintenance and periodic capital investment required to maintain the asset at an acceptable condition level. 18 It is typical that linear infrastructure (roads and utilities) associated with new development is constructed and funded by developers and as a result municipalities inherit these assets at no immediate cost. As a result, the benefits of future development will look very positive in the short-term. However, once the these assets are turned over to the municipality and become part of the municipality s asset base, it is the municipality s responsibility to maintain these assets over their useful life and to eventually replace these assets. These future financial obligations can be very costly and municipalities have to balance the need to address aging infrastructure against the need to approve municipal capital projects to accommodate new growth. Leduc County - Fiscal Impact Analysis of Proposed Annexation by Town of Beaumont - Final Report! 11

16 There is no discussion or description of how the Town s existing debt and debenture payments have been included in the financial forecast provided in the Corvus Report. As a result, it is expected that the total costs to be incurred by the Town are under estimated. There is no discussion or description of how Leduc County s stranded costs have been incorporated in the analysis. As a result, it is expected that the total costs to be incurred by the Town are under estimated. There is no discussion or description of how tax protection, as described in the Town s Legal Argument, has been incorporated in the financial forecast provided in the Corvus Report. As a result, it is expected that the total costs to be incurred by the Town are under estimated. There is no discussion of the possibility of tax compensation for lost tax revenues on lands in the proposed annexation area. It is not clear as to whether the analysis provided in the Corvus Report included the costs the Town would incur to provide municipal services to the proposed annexation area. The Corvus Report identifies estimated cost savings to County but does not appear to include these costs to the Town in its financial plan. It is not clear that the assessment associated with the annexation area has been appropriately included in the total assessment of the Town with annexation. 19 As a result, it is expected that the calculated municipal tax rates would be under estimated. The analysis provided in the Corvus Report appears to include development in the proposed annexation area prior to It is difficult to understand how this could happen before annexation could be approved, nor allow for the time required to put servicing in place and obtain all the required planning approvals. There is no explicit reporting of the municipal portion of the projected property tax rates in the Corvus Report. As a result, it is not clear as to the portion of the total property tax rates that are determined to be for municipal, school or library requisitions. As a result, we do not agree with the conclusion stated in the Town s Legal Argument, where it states that The CORVUS Report addresses the financial impacts of the proposed annexation ANALYSIS OF TOWN S PROPOSED ANNEXATION To understand the financial forecast prepared for the Town and reported in the Corvus Report, Applications undertook an independent analysis of the Town s proposed annexation. This analysis includes an examination of the financial impacts on a municipality both with and without annexation. Where relevant, the analysis builds on assumptions and data provided in the ISL and Corvus reports CONVERSION OF THE TOWN S FINANCIAL ANALYSIS TO REAL DOLLARS In reviewing the Corvus Report, it is noted that the cost and revenue components of the analysis are in nominal, or inflated, dollars. However the projection of assessment does not include any consideration of inflation or market value adjustments. This yields municipal tax rate projections that effectively mix some 19 Taxable assessment in the proposed annex area amounted to $ million in With the addition of exempt assessment ($3.085 million), total assessment in the annexation area increases to $16,391 million. The Corvus Report provides a total assessment value of $ million which appears to be based on the taxable assessment of $ million + $ million (mistakenly assumed to be exempt). For the purposes of projecting future tax rates, only the taxable assessment should be included as exempt assessment is exempt from paying taxes. 20 Town of Beaumont Annexation Application, Binder 3, Legal Argument, page 16. Leduc County - Fiscal Impact Analysis of Proposed Annexation by Town of Beaumont - Final Report! 12

17 inflated values with some real or non-inflated values. The resulting tax rates cannot be used with any reliability because of this internal consistency of analysis issue. In order to clearly understand the implications of the financial forecast and ultimately the impact of annexation, Applications has undertaken a restatement of the portions of the analysis provided in the Corvus Report by converting the inflated costs and revenues to real 2014 dollar values. This is the first step required to allow for an evaluation of the accuracy of the results presented in the Corvus Report. In the Corvus Report, it is stated that an average annual rate of inflation of 3% was used throughout. 21 This rate has been used to restate the nominal (inflated) values in real 2014 dollars OPERATING REVENUES (NET OF TAXES) Total operating revenues, not including municipal tax revenues, have been restated as depicted in the figure below, for each year of the forecast period used in the Corvus Report. In 2040, this results in an adjustment in total operating revenues of $61.7 million in nominal (inflated dollars) to $28.6 million in 2014 real dollars. 21 Town of Beaumont: Annexation Fiscal Impact Analysis, CORVUS Business Advisors, November Leduc County - Fiscal Impact Analysis of Proposed Annexation by Town of Beaumont - Final Report! 13

18 Figure 2: Operating Revenues (Net of Taxes) - Conversion of Corvus Analysis to Real 2014 Dollars 70,000,000"" 60,000,000"" 50,000,000"" 40,000,000"" $" 30,000,000"" Nominal"" Real"($2014)" 20,000,000"" 10,000,000"" 0"" 2016" 2018" 2020" 2022" 2024" 2026" 2028" 2030" 2032" 2034" 2036" 2038" 2040" OPERATING EXPENDITURES Total operating expenditures have been restated as depicted in the figure below, for each year of the forecast period used in the Corvus Report. In 2040, this results in an adjustment in total operating revenues of $108.7 million in nominal (inflated dollars) to $50.4 million in 2014 real dollars. Leduc County - Fiscal Impact Analysis of Proposed Annexation by Town of Beaumont - Final Report! 14

19 Figure 3: Operating Expenditures - Conversion of Corvus Analysis to Real 2014 Dollars 120,000,000"" 100,000,000"" 80,000,000"" $" 60,000,000"" Nominal" Real"($2014)" 40,000,000"" 20,000,000"" 0"" 2016" 2018" 2020" 2022" 2024" 2026" 2028" 2030" 2032" 2034" 2036" 2038" 2040" CAPITAL EXPENDITURES (NET) Total capital expenditures have been restated as depicted in the figure below, for each year of the forecast period used in the Corvus Report, to Capital expenditures include debenture payments on debt financed capital projects, direct capital allocations and transfers to reserves for water and wastewater as reported in the Corvus Report. The adjustment of capital expenditures requires taking inflation out of the total capital costs as well as adjusting the debenture rate to reflect the real cost of borrowing for projects which have been assumed to be funded (at least in part) by debt. The 3% annual inflation factor has been used to deflate all the capital project expenditures. The debenture rate used for all projects at least partially funded with debt has been reduced from 5.06% to 3.06% per year. It should be noted that when calculating the net capital costs to the Town associated with debt funded projects, we were not able to reproduce the debt payment amounts reported in the Corvus Report (Corvus Nominal). Rather than the smooth net capital expenditure costs, our calculations yielded a choppy pattern of debt and pay-as-you-go capital expenditures (Real 2014 dollars). Capital expenditures were also calculated using the capital plan provided in the Corvus Report and applying the nominal project costs and debenture rates to provide a restated nominal net capital expenditure forecast. Leduc County - Fiscal Impact Analysis of Proposed Annexation by Town of Beaumont - Final Report! 15

20 Figure 4: Capital Expenditures (Net) - Conversion of Corvus Analysis to Real 2014 Dollars 18,000,000"" 16,000,000"" 14,000,000"" 12,000,000"" $" 10,000,000"" 8,000,000"" Nominal"(Restated)" Real"($2014)" Nominal"(Corvus)" 6,000,000"" 4,000,000"" 2,000,000"" 0"" 2016" 2018" 2020" 2022" 2024" 2026" 2028" 2030" 2032" 2034" 2036" 2038" 2040" CAPITAL COST SUMMARY Provided below is a summary of the total capital expenditures as provided in the Corvus Report compared to the restated values in real 2014 dollars. The project amounts have been discounted back from their nominal value, in the year the project was scheduled to be undertaken, to reflect a 2014 real dollar value. Leduc County - Fiscal Impact Analysis of Proposed Annexation by Town of Beaumont - Final Report! 16

21 Table 3: Capital Cost Summary - Conversion of Corvus Analysis to Real 2014 Dollars TOTAL EXPENDITURES Total expenditures have been restated as depicted in the figure below, for each year of the forecast period used in the Corvus Report. In 2040 this results in an adjustment in total operating revenues of $124.3 million (Nominal Corvus) in nominal (inflated dollars) to $57.1 million in 2014 real dollars. 22 Note that this figure also provides the restated nominal (inflated) Corvus capital costs and other operating costs in the Nominal Restated line. The issues associated with reproducing the debenture payment amounts from the Corvus Report, when totaled with other operating costs do not have a significant impact on the final total cost figure. 22 The total expenditures depicted in the figure include the contingency costs included in the Corvus Report (page 37). Leduc County - Fiscal Impact Analysis of Proposed Annexation by Town of Beaumont - Final Report! 17

22 Figure 5: Total Expenditures - Conversion of Corvus Analysis to Real 2014 Dollars 140,000,000"" 120,000,000"" 100,000,000"" $" 80,000,000"" 60,000,000"" Nominal"(Restated)" Real"($2014)" Nominal"(Corvus)" 40,000,000"" 20,000,000"" 0"" 2016" 2018" 2020" 2022" 2024" 2026" 2028" 2030" 2032" 2034" 2036" 2038" 2040" MUNICIPAL TAX REQUIREMENT The restated municipal tax requirement, used to calculate tax rates, is the sum of all restated costs (operating and capital) net of all restated non-tax revenues. In 2040 this results in an adjustment in the municipal tax requirement of $62.6 million in nominal (inflated dollars) to $28.5 million in 2014 real dollars. Leduc County - Fiscal Impact Analysis of Proposed Annexation by Town of Beaumont - Final Report! 18

23 Figure 6: Municipal Tax Requirement - Conversion of Corvus Analysis to Real 2014 Dollars 70,000,000"" 60,000,000"" 50,000,000"" 40,000,000"" $" 30,000,000"" Nominal"(Corvus)" Real"($2014)" 20,000,000"" 10,000,000"" 0"" 2016" 2018" 2020" 2022" 2024" 2026" 2028" 2030" 2032" 2034" 2036" 2038" 2040" ASSESSMENT Because the projection of assessment provided in the Corvus Report did not include inflation or any market value adjustments, no restatement of assessment values for inflation were necessary. However, the existing assessment in the proposed annexation area appears to be overstated in the Corvus Report. The taxable assessment associated with the proposed annexation is $13.3 million. With the addition of exempt assessment ($3.1 million), total assessment in the annexation area increases to $16.4 million. The Corvus Report (page 58) provides a total assessment value of $29.7 million which appears to be based on the taxable assessment of $13.3 million plus $16.4 million. 23 For the purposes of projecting future tax rates, only the taxable assessment should be included as exempt assessment is exempt from paying taxes. As a result, we have adjusted the assessment value of the proposed annexation area from $29.7 million (Corvus Report) to $13.3 million. 23 It appears that the $16.4 million figure has been mistaken to be the exempt assessment value. Leduc County - Fiscal Impact Analysis of Proposed Annexation by Town of Beaumont - Final Report! 19

24 Figure 7: Assessment - Conversion of Corvus Analysis to Real 2014 Dollars 8,500,000,000%% 7,500,000,000%% 6,500,000,000%% $" 5,500,000,000%% Nominal%(Restated)% Real%($2014)% Corvus% 4,500,000,000%% 3,500,000,000%% 2,500,000,000%% 2016% 2018% 2020% 2022% 2024% 2026% 2028% 2030% 2032% 2034% 2036% 2038% 2040% RESIDENTIAL MUNICIPAL TAX RATES Provided below is the estimated residential municipal tax rate for the restated Corvus analysis in real 2014 dollars. The tax rates presented in the Corvus Report do not break out the municipal portion of the tax rate from the education tax rates, as shown in the figure below (Total Tax Rate Corvus). 24 The resulting real 2014 dollar residential municipal tax rate declines over the forecast period from 5.3 in 2016 to 3.6. This compares to a calculated residential municipal tax rate (including inflation) which increases from 6.1 in 2016 to 8.0 in 2040 (Nominal Restated). 24 The restated residential municipal tax rate and Corvus Total Tax Rates both include the Library Tax Rates. Leduc County - Fiscal Impact Analysis of Proposed Annexation by Town of Beaumont - Final Report! 20

25 Figure 8: Residential Municipal Tax Rates & (Corvus) Total Tax Rate - Conversion of Corvus Analysis to Real 2014 Dollars ## ## ## Mills% ## ## Nominal#(Restated)# Real#($2014)# Total#Tax#Rate#(Corvus)# ## ## ## 2016# 2018# 2020# 2022# 2024# 2026# 2028# 2030# 2032# 2034# 2036# 2038# 2040# NON-RESIDENTIAL MUNICIPAL TAX RATES The resulting real 2014 dollar non-residential municipal tax rate is shown to decline over the forecast period from 7.4 in 2016 to 5.1 in This compares to a calculated non-residential municipal tax rate (including inflation) which increases from 8.4 in 2016 to 11.1 in 2040 (Nominal Restated). Leduc County - Fiscal Impact Analysis of Proposed Annexation by Town of Beaumont - Final Report! 21

26 Figure 9: Non-Residential Municipal Tax Rates - Conversion of Corvus Analysis to Real 2014 Dollars ## ## ## ## Mills% ## ## Nominal#(Restated)# Real#($2014)# Total#Tax#Rate#(Corvus)# ## ## ## ## 2016# 2018# 2020# 2022# 2024# 2026# 2028# 2030# 2032# 2034# 2036# 2038# 2040# EVALUATION OF THE TOWN S FINANCIAL FORECAST In addition to converting the projected revenues and expenditures form the Corvus Report to real 2014 dollars, a number of other issues were identified with the Town s analysis that have been addressed in the analysis below. In each case, we have compared the restated Corvus results in real 2014 dollars, as calculated above, with the revised analysis results which incorporate our modified assumptions (Applications) OPERATING REVENUES (NET OF TAXES) In our analysis (Applications) we calculated future non-tax operating revenues using a cost recovery based analysis. In this approach we have used 2014 as a base year and determined what portion of total expenses (operating and capital) were recovered from operating revenues. This approach maintains the cost recovery policy that exists for the municipality in the base year and projects this over the forecast period. In this way, there are no adjustments to these cost recovery policies. This provides results that reflect the impact of annexation which are not blurred by assumed municipal policy changes. Two exceptions to this approach, included in the Applications projection, are worthy of note: Fiscal Services: The operating revenues reported in the Town s 2014 operating budget for Fiscal Services was assumed to remain constant ($174,700 per year). Leduc County - Fiscal Impact Analysis of Proposed Annexation by Town of Beaumont - Final Report! 22

27 Utilities: The cost recovery rates for Water, Wastewater and Solid Waste were set to 100% (full cost recovery with no tax support). Based on the 2014 operating budget, the calculated cost recovery rate for water was 99%, 100% for Wastewater and 97% for Solid Waste. In addition to the operating revenues projected from the cost recovery rates, projections of future operating grants were also included. It was assumed that the Town would continue to receive the operating grants reported in its 2014 operating budget. Two grants were adjusted with population growth: the Municipal Police Assistance Grant and Family and Community Support Services grant. Other minor revenue items in the total non-tax operating revenues for the Town include: penalties and costs on taxes, interest on Investment, franchises and concessions, and transfer from reserves. The resulting projection of operating revenues (net of taxes) is projected to increase from $17.4 million in 2016 to $30.7 million in This compares to the restated values from the Corvus Report (real 2014 dollars) of $14.5 million in 2016 to $28.6 million in Figure 10: Operating Revenues (Net of Taxes) - Evaluation of the Town s Financial Forecast (Corvus Restated in Real 2014 Dollars) 35,000,000"" 30,000,000"" 25,000,000"" 20,000,000"" $" 15,000,000"" Applica1ons" Corvus"(Restated)" 10,000,000"" 5,000,000"" 0"" 2016" 2018" 2020" 2022" 2024" 2026" 2028" 2030" 2032" 2034" 2036" 2038" 2040" OPERATING EXPENDITURES Applications projections of municipal operating expenditures are largely based on population growth and assumptions regarding marginal costs of service delivery. For each municipal service area, the percentage of Base Year operating expenditures assumed to be fixed (or constant) is estimated. The remaining portion of costs are deemed to be variable, and change with changes in population as the primary driver of all costs, Leduc County - Fiscal Impact Analysis of Proposed Annexation by Town of Beaumont - Final Report! 23

28 except road and utility costs. Changes in road and utility costs are based on the changes in the length of roads the Town will have to maintain. 25 Overall, it has been assumed that approximately 35% of the Town s operating costs are fixed with the remaining 65% of operating costs varying with changes to population or road length. Operating expenditures exclude transfers to reserves and capital-related expenditures (i.e. capital funded from operations and debentures payable on capital projects that have been debt financed). Based on this projection, operating expenditures increase from $30.4 million in 2016 to $57.5 million in This compares to the restated values from the Corvus Report (real 2014 dollars) of $28.1 million in 2016 to $51.7 million in Figure 11: Operating Expenditures - Evaluation of the Town s Financial Forecast (Corvus Restated in Real 2014 Dollars) 70,000,000"" 60,000,000"" 50,000,000"" 40,000,000"" $" 30,000,000"" Applica2ons" Corvus"(Restated)" 20,000,000"" 10,000,000"" 0"" 2016" 2018" 2020" 2022" 2024" 2026" 2028" 2030" 2032" 2034" 2036" 2038" 2040" CAPITAL EXPENDITURES (NET) Capital costs include those expenditures that are funded from the Town s municipal operating budget and therefore exclude portions of capital projects funded from reserves or externally through grants, developer contributions and other non-municipal revenue sources. The capital expenditures included in this analysis include principal repayments on debentures issued to fund capital projects as well as capital costs that are 25 Transfers to reserves have been balanced with transfers from reserves in each year of the forecast period to have no net effect on operations or the current net balance of reserves. Leduc County - Fiscal Impact Analysis of Proposed Annexation by Town of Beaumont - Final Report! 24

29 expensed items (Pay-As-You-Go). For the purposes of this analysis, interest payments on issued debentures are also included as capital costs. Applications determination of net capital expenditures include consideration of the following: Life Cycle and Replacement Costs of Existing Assets: The Town s 2013 amortization was used as a proxy for the lifecycle costs associated with the Town s existing asset base. Existing Debentures: The Town s existing debentures were incorporated into the analysis. 26 Roads, Water, Wastewater and Storm: Major linear infrastructure as reported in the Corvus Report (restated to $2014 dollars) Other Capital: This includes all other capital expenditures. These costs were estimated for the Town based on 17 different types of infrastructure, the growth threshold required to support an additional unit of infrastructure and the unit cost of each type of infrastructure. The Life Cycle Costs of new assets both purchased by the Town and acquired by the Town through the development process, over the forecast period. 27 Capital expenditures are projected to increase from $4.9 million in 2016 to $11.4 million in This compares to the restated values from the Corvus Report (real 2014 dollars) of $1.6 million in 2016 to $5.4 million in There is a significant difference in the projected capital costs for the Town with annexation based on the Applications forecast than that projected in the restated Corvus (real 2014 dollars) forecast. While there are a number of differences, most of these lie in the apparent absence of existing debentures in the capital costs and consideration of Life Cycle Costs on newly purchased and acquired assets. Further, it is not clear that the capital plan provided in the Corvus Report fully incorporates the LCC and replacement costs of existing assets or the full cost of other so called soft capital costs associated with nonlinear infrastructure. 26 It is not clear as to whether these costs were included in the capital costs provided in the Corvus Report. 27 It does not appear that the LCC associated with new assets acquired by the Town through the development process are included in capital costs provided in the Corvus Report. Leduc County - Fiscal Impact Analysis of Proposed Annexation by Town of Beaumont - Final Report! 25

30 Figure 12: Capital Expenditures (Net) - Evaluation of the Town s Financial Forecast (Corvus Restated in Real 2014 Dollars) 12,000,000"" 10,000,000"" 8,000,000"" $" 6,000,000"" Applica0ons" Corvus"(Restated)" 4,000,000"" 2,000,000"" 0"" 2016" 2018" 2020" 2022" 2024" 2026" 2028" 2030" 2032" 2034" 2036" 2038" 2040" The table below provides a summary of the total cost of infrastructure that will be required to support development in the Town with annexation to Our estimate of these costs (Applications) includes capital costs associated with infrastructure purchased by the Town as well as that acquired by the Town through the development process. Over the 25 year forecast period, this cost is estimated to exceed $840 million. This compares to a total capital project cost of $330 million (Corvus restated in real 2014 dollars). It is important to note that without determining the full infrastructure costs for the Town, including those contributed assets from the development process, it is not possible to project a complete picture of the Town s future capital budget. Assets acquired by the Town at no net cost to them, are assets that need to be maintained, repaired and ultimately replaced at the end of their useful life. As a result, while the Town s capital plan provides a significant amount of project detail, it is incomplete in some significant ways. 28 All on-site infrastructure provided to the Town through the development process (Third Party Contributions) is estimated to total over $380 million to This compares with a total of approximately $7 million included in the Restated Corvus forecast which was related to funding by external development benefitting from the associated road project. 28 While practically the Town may choose to not fully fund rehabilitation and maintenance of existing or newly acquired assets, it is important to include these costs in a comprehensive fiscal impact analysis to ensure that the full costs have been considered in determining the impact of the annexation. Leduc County - Fiscal Impact Analysis of Proposed Annexation by Town of Beaumont - Final Report! 26

31 The lifecycle and replacement costs on existing assets of the Town were assumed in the Applications analysis to be equal to the 2013 annual amortization reported by in the Alberta Municipal Affairs Financial Information Return for the Town. The Town s Capital Plan does not appear to include the full costs of new assets acquired from the Town through the development process. Of the $844 million capital budget, $642 million has been identified for new capital: New Major Linear : The estimated capital costs associated with new major (off-site) Roads, Water and Wastewater capital projects are projected to total $129 million. It is assumed these capital projects would be fully funded from off-site levies. Major Storm projects were assumed to be funded by 50% grants and 50% debt financing. New Neighbourhood Linear: The projected capital cost of neighbourhood linear (on-site) infrastructure is estimated to be $382 million. It was assumed these capital projects were by fully funded by the developers. Other New Capital: The projected capital costs of other new capital projects is $131 million. It was assumed these projects would be funded by 50% grants, 25% pay-as-you-go and 25% debt financing. Of the $844 million capital budget, $46 million is assumed to be related to lifecycle costs associated with the new capital: New Major Linear: Lifecycle costs associated with both major and neighbourhood linear projects are projected to total $40 million. The lifecycle costs associated with Water and Wastewater capital assets were assumed to be funded as pay-as-you-go. The lifecycle costs associated with Roads and Storm were assumed to be funded by 50% grants and 50% pay-as-you-go. Other New Capital: The lifecycle costs associated with Other Capital ($6 million) are assumed to be funded by 50% grants and 50% pay-as-you-go. In allocating capital grant funding in the capital budget, it was assumed the Town would continue to receive about $4.0 million in capital grants per year. Table 4: Capital Summary - Evaluation of the Town s Financial Forecast (Corvus Restated in Real 2014 Dollars) Leduc County - Fiscal Impact Analysis of Proposed Annexation by Town of Beaumont - Final Report! 27

32 TOTAL EXPENDITURES Total expenditures include both total operating expenditures and total (net) capital expenditures. The resulting projection of total expenditures is projected to increase from $35.3 million in 2016 to $69.0 million in This compares to the restated values from the Corvus Report (real 2014 dollars) of $29.7 million in 2016 to $57.1 million in Figure 13: Total Expenditures - Evaluation of the Town s Financial Forecast (Corvus Restated in Real 2014 Dollars) 80,000,000"" 70,000,000"" 60,000,000"" 50,000,000"" $" 40,000,000"" Applica2ons" Corvus"(Restated)" 30,000,000"" 20,000,000"" 10,000,000"" 0"" 2016" 2018" 2020" 2022" 2024" 2026" 2028" 2030" 2032" 2034" 2036" 2038" 2040" MUNICIPAL TAX REQUISITION The municipal tax requisition is calculated by taking net operating revenues (excluding taxes) from total expenditures (operating and capital). The resulting projection of the municipal tax requisition is projected to increase from $18.3 million in 2016 to $38.3 million in This compares to the restated values from the Corvus Report (real 2014 dollars) of $15.1 million in 2016 to $28.5 million in Leduc County - Fiscal Impact Analysis of Proposed Annexation by Town of Beaumont - Final Report! 28

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