1 Investing in Disadvantaged Young Children is an Economically Efficient Policy James J. Heckman presented at the Committee for Economic Development/ The Pew Charitable Trusts/ PNC Financial Services Group Forum on "Building the Economic Case for Investments in Preschool" New York, January 10, 2006 This research was funded by the Committee for Economic Development with a grant from The Pew Charitable Trusts. The views expressed in this paper are those of the author and not necessarily those of The Pew Charitable Trusts. I am grateful to Alison Baulos, Dimitriy Masterov and Adam Yavitz for helpful comments.
2 Abstract This paper presents an efficiency argument for publicly funded investment in disadvantaged young children. James J. Heckman Department of Economics University of Chicago 1126 E. 59th Street Chicago, IL fax:
3 Why should society invest in disadvantaged young children? The traditional argument for doing so is made on the grounds of fairness and social justice. It is an argument founded on equity considerations. There is another argument that can be made. It is based on economic efficiency. It is more powerful than the equity argument, in part because the gains from such investment can be quantified and they are large. There are many reasons why investing in disadvantaged young children has a high economic return. It is a rare public policy initiative that promotes fairness and social justice and at the same time promotes productivity in the economy and in society at large. Investing in disadvantaged young children is such a policy. Early interventions for disadvantaged children promote schooling, raise the quality of the workforce, enhance the productivity of schools and reduce crime, teenage pregnancy and welfare dependency. They raise earnings and promote social attachment. Focusing solely on earnings gains, returns to dollars invested are as high as 15-17%. Howisitpossibletoavoidtheequity-efficiency tradeoff that plagues so many policies for example, tax policy or welfare policy? The reason lies in the importance of skills in the modern economy and the dynamic nature of the skill acquisition process. A large body of research in social science, psychology and neuroscience shows that skill begets skill; that learning begets learning. The earlier the seed is planted and watered, the faster and larger it grows. There is substantial evidence of critical or sensitive periods in the lives of young children. Environments that do not stimulate the young and fail to cultivate both cognitive and noncognitive skills place children at an early disadvantage. Once a child falls behind, he or she is likely to remain behind. Remediation for impoverished early environments becomes progressively more costly the later it is attempted in the life cycle of the child. The track record for criminal rehabilitation, adult literacy and late teenage public job training programs is remarkably poor. Impoverished early environments are powerful predictors of adult failure on a number of social and economic dimensions. Impoverishment is not so much about the lack of money as it is about the lack of cognitive and noncognitive stimulation given to young children. Experimental interventions that enrich early childhood environments produce more successful adults. These interventions raise 2
4 both cognitive and noncognitive skills. 1 My Argument in a Nutshell My argument consists of thirteen points: I. Life cycle skill formation is a dynamic process where early inputs greatly affect the productivity of later inputs in the life cycle of children. Skill begets skill; motivation begets motivation. Early failure begets later failure. II. Many major economic and social problems can be traced to low levels of skill and ability in the population. III. Abilities are multiple in nature. IV. Much public policy discussion focuses on cognitive ability and especially IQ. V. Noncognitive skills are also important for success in life. VI. Motivation, perseverance and tenacity feed into performance in society at large and even affect scores on achievement tests. VII. Early family environments are major predictors of both cognitive and noncognitive ability. VIII. The previous point is a major source of concern because family environments in the U.S. have deteriorated over the past 40 years. IX. Experiments support the nonexperimental evidence that adverse family environments promote adult failure. X. If we intervene early enough, we can affect both cognitive and noncognitive abilities. XI. Early interventions promote schooling, reduce crime, promote workforce productivity and reduce teenage pregnancy. XII. These interventions have high benefit-cost ratios and rates of return. 3
5 XIII. Early interventions targeted toward disadvantaged children have much higher returns than later interventions such as reduced pupil-teacher ratios, public job training, convict rehabilitation programs, tuition subsidies or expenditure on police. 2 Some Problems Facing American Society and Their Roots in Early Disadvantage Consider some major problems facing American society. First, there is a slowdown in the growth of labor force quality. See Table 1 which documents that the U.S. workforce will add many fewer college graduates to its workforce in the next 20 years than it did in the last 20 years. The percentage of each cohort of Americans who attend college has stalled out in recent decades after a spectacular early growth in the first half of the twentieth century (see Figure 1). Properly counted, the high school dropout rate is increasing at a time when return to schooling has increased (see Figure 2). This increase in the dropout rate is occurring among native populations, and is not solely due to immigrants. Over 20% of the U.S. workforce is functionally illiterate, compared to about 10% in Germany and Sweden. Functionally illiterate adults do not understand the instructions on medical prescriptions. 20% of all American adults say the sun goes around the earth. Crime is another social problem. Anderson (1999) finds that the net cost of crime in American society is $1.3 trillion per year, with a per capita cost of $4,818 per year. Violent and property levels remain high, despite large declines in recent years. Crime reduction is extremely expensive, and spending on the criminal justice system is still increasing. 3 Ability and Outcomes Much public policy discussion is focused on cognitive test score measurements, even though cognitive test scores miss important aspects of human development. Cognitive and noncognitive ability are both important in explaining schooling, crime and a variety of other outcomes. Noncognitive ability is neglected in many public policy discussions regarding early childhood. Yet noncognitive ability is 4
6 a major determinant of socioeconomic success as the Figures 3a-3f reveal. They show how outcomes are affected as we move people from the bottom to the top of the distribution of both cognitive and noncognitive skills. These figures show how performance on many socioeconomic dimensions is critically affected by both cognitive and noncognitive skills. Both are equally important. 4 Gaps in Ability Open Up Early Going across income groups, gaps in cognitive ability emerge early in the life cycle, and widen slightly in the early years of schooling. They stay constant after age 8. Research shows that schooling environments play only a small role in accounting for these gaps or in widening or narrowing them. They start early and persist. Once we control for early family environments, the gaps narrow. See Figures 4a and 4b. Similar phenomena characterize noncognitive skills. Gaps by family income appear early and persist. Schooling quality plays little role in accounting for gaps or their stability. Controlling for early family environments largely eliminates these gaps. See Figures 4c and 4d. 5 Early Family Environments Early family environments are major predictors of abilities (both cognitive and noncognitive). This is a source of concern because they have deteriorated over the past 30 years. Relatively more U.S. children are born into disadvantaged environmentscomparedto40yearsago(seefigure 5). Experiments indicate that the empirical relationships shown in Figures 4b and 4d are causal. Improvements in family environments affect both cognitive and noncognitive skills. A great deal of American public policy discussion is focused on cognitive test score measurements. Head Start was deemed a failure because it did not raise IQ. But such a judgement is premature. Consider the Perry Preschool Program. This was an experimental intervention in the lives of disadvantaged minority children. Figure 6a shows that the Perry intervention group had no higher test scores than the control group. Yet, in a follow up to age 40, the Perry treatment children had higher achievement test scores than did the control children. On many dimensions, the Perry 5
7 treatment children are far more successful than the controls (see Figures 6b-6d). Early interventions can partially compensate for early disadvantage. Perry intervened relatively late (at ages 4-6) in the life of the developing child. Earlier interventions like the ABCDerian program that starts when subjects are 4 months of age permanently raises the IQ and the noncognitive skills of the treatment group over the control group. Theeconomicbenefits of the Perry Program are substantial. Rates of return are 15-17%. (See Rolnick and Grunewald, 2003) The benefit-cost ratio is eight to one. Similar returns are obtained for other early intervention programs. 6 Can We Look to the Schools to Remedy Early Disadvantage? Amajorfinding from the research literature is that schools and school quality contribute little to the emergence of test score gaps among children. The Coleman (1966) report showed that families and not schools were the major sources of inequality in student performance. By the second grade, gaps in test scores across socioeconomic groups are stable by age, suggesting that later schooling has little effect in reducing or widening the gaps that appear before students enter school. Carneiro and Heckman (2003) perform a cost-benefit analysis of classroom size reduction on adult earnings. While smaller classes raise the adult earnings of students, the earnings gains do not offset the costs of hiring additional teachers. Because of the dynamics of human skill formation, the abilities and motivations that children bring to school play a far greater role in promoting performance in school than do the traditional inputs that receive so much attention in public policy debates. 7 Tuition Policy Evidence by Carneiro and Heckman (2002, 2003) suggests that resources available to children in their college going years play only a small role in accounting for socioeconomic and ethnic differentials in attending college. At most 8% of the families in America cannot afford to send their children 6
8 to school. While policies targeted to this 8% are cost effective, the major source of the gaps in college attendance is gaps in the abilities that children have in their late teens. These ability gaps are formed much earlier in life. 8 Remediation America is a second chance society. We believe in the possibility of redemption and renewal. Our bankruptcy laws, and our educational policy reflect a fundamental optimism.about the possibility of human change. However, the track record of criminal rehabilitation programs, adult literacy programs and public job training programs is poor. A few selectively targeted versions of these programs may yield modest benefits. The dynamics of human skill formation as analyzed in Cunha and Heckman (2003) and Cunha, Heckman, Lochner, and Masterov (2006) reveal that later compensation for deficient early family environments is very costly. Lack of early skill and motivation begets lack of future skill and motivation. If we wait too long to compensate, it is economically inefficient to invest in the skills of the disadvantaged. A serious tradeoff exists between equity and efficiency for adolescent and young adult skill policies. There is no such tradeoff for policies targeted toward disadvantaged young children. Figure 7 captures the findings of a large literature. The economic return to early interventions is high. The return to later intervention is lower. The reason for this relationship is the technology of skill formation. Skill begets skill and early skill makes later skill acquisition easier. Remedial programs in the adolescent and young adult years are much more costly in producing the same level of skill attainment in adulthood. Most are economically inefficient. Children from advantaged environments by and large receive substantial early investment. Children from disadvantaged environments more often do not. There is a strong case for public support for funding interventions in early childhood for disadvantaged children although the interventions do not have to be conducted in public centers. Vouchers for use in privately run programs might allay the concerns of many parents who want to determine the values held by their children and yet who want to enrich their children s early cognitive and noncognitive stimulation. 7
9 9 Summary Summarizing my argument, I. Life cycle skill formation is a dynamic process where early inputs greatly affect the productivity of later inputs in the lifecycle of children. Skill begets skill; motivation begets motivation. Early failure begets later failure. II. Many major economic and social problems can be traced to low levels of skill and ability in the population. III. Abilities are multiple in nature. IV. Much public policy discussion focuses on cognitive ability and especially IQ. V. Noncognitive abilities are also important for success in life.. VI. They feed in to performance on achievement tests and in society at large. VII. Early family environments are major predictors of both types of ability. VIII. Point VII is a source of concern because family environments have deteriorated in America over the past 40 years, and a greater proportion of the future American workforce will come from disadvantaged environments. IX. Experiments support the nonexperimental evidence that early family enviornments affect adult outcomes. Early compensation for disadvantage can partially offset the disadvantage. X. If we intervene early enough we can affect both cognitive and noncognitive abilities. XI. Early interventions promote schooling, reduce crime, promote productivity in the workplace and reduce teenage pregnancy. XII. Early interventions have high benefit-cost ratios and rates of return. XIII. Early interventions have much higher returns targeted toward disadvantaged children than do other later interventions (pupil teacher ratios; public job training; convict rehabilitation programs; direct expenditure on police; adult literacy). 8
10 References Anderson, D. A. (1999, October). The aggregate burden of crime. Journal of Law and Economics 42 (2), Barnett, W. S. (2004, November). Benefit-cost analysis of preschool education. PowerPoint presentation. Carneiro, P. and J. J. Heckman (2002, October). The evidence on credit constraints in postsecondary schooling. Economic Journal 112(482), Carneiro, P. and J. J. Heckman (2003). Human capital policy. In J. J. Heckman, A. B. Krueger, andb.m.friedman(eds.),inequality in America: What Role for Human Capital Policies? Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. Coleman, J. S. (1966). Equality of Educational Opportunity. Washington, DC: U.S. Dept. of Health, Education, and Welfare, Office of Education. Cunha, F. and J. J. Heckman (2003). The technology of skill formation. Unpublished manuscript, University of Chicago, presented at AEA meetings, January, 2003, San Diego, CA and Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, October, Revised May, 2005 for presentation at the Society for Economic Dynamics and Control. Cunha,F.,J.J.Heckman,L.J.Lochner,andD.V.Masterov(2006).Interpretingtheevidenceon life cycle skill formation. In E. A. Hanushek and F. Welch (Eds.), Handbook of the Economics of Education. North-Holland. forthcoming. Ellwood, D. T. (2001). The sputtering labor force of the twenty-first century: Can social policy help? In A. Krueger and R. Solow (Eds.), The Roaring Nineties: Can Full Employment Be Sustained?, pp New York: Russell Sage Foundation. Heckman, J. J., J. Stixrud, and S. Urzua (2006). The effects of cognitive and noncognitive abilities on labor market outcomes and social behavior. Journal of Labor Economics, forthcoming. 9
11 Rolnick, A. and R. Grunewald (2003). Early childhood development: Economic development with a high public return. Technical report, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Minneapolis, MN. Terman,L.M.andM.A.Merrill(1960). Stanford-Binet Intelligence Scale: Manual for the Third Revision Form L-M. Boston: Houghton Mifflin. 10
12 Table 1 Educational Characteristics of the Labor Force (a) Labor Force, Age 25 and Over Education 1980 (change) 2000 (change) 2020 (b) Less than HS HS Only Some post-hs At Least College Degree % College Graduates 21.7% 47.8% 30.2% 41.4% 31.7% Total Source: Ellwood (2001). (a) All figures in millions of workers; (b) Projected. 8
13 Figure 1 Schooling Participation Rates by Year of Birth: Data from CPS 2000 A. Whites % Participating Year of Birth College Enrollment High School Graduates and GEDs* High School Dropout** * GEDs are known for the birth cohort ** Dropouts exluding GEDs
14 Figure 2 Educational Statistics by Category Over Time A. Share of High School Dropouts in the United States,
15 Figure 3a Probability of Being a High School Dropout (no GED), by Ability.4.3 Probability Percentile Males Cognitive Males Non Cognitive Females Cognitive Females Non Cognitive Note: This figure plots the probability of a given behavior associated with moving up in one ability distribution for someone after integrating out the other distribution. For example, the lines with markers show the effect of increasing noncognitive ability after integrating the cognitive ability. Source: Heckman, Stixrud, and Urzua (2006).
16 Figure 3b Probability of Highest Attainment = GED, by Ability.2.15 Probability Percentile Males Cognitive Males Non Cognitive Females Cognitive Females Non Cognitive Note: This figure plots the probability of a given behavior associated with moving up in one ability distribution for someone after integrating out the other distribution. For example, the lines with markers show the effect of increasing noncognitive ability after integrating the cognitive ability. Source: Heckman, Stixrud, and Urzua (2006).
17 Figure 3c Probability of Being a 4 yr College Graduate, by Ability.6 Probability Percentile Males Cognitive Males Non Cognitive Females Cognitive Females Non Cognitive Note: This figure plots the probability of a given behavior associated with moving up in one ability distribution for someone after integrating out the other distribution. For example, the lines with markers show the effect of increasing noncognitive ability after integrating the cognitive ability. Source: Heckman, Stixrud, and Urzua (2006).
18 Figure 3d Ever in Jail by Age 30, by Ability Males.15 Probability Percentile Cognitive Non Cognitive Note: This figure plots the probability of a given behavior associated with moving up in one ability distribution for someone after integrating out the other distribution. For example, the lines with markers show the effect of increasing noncognitive ability after integrating the cognitive ability. Source: Heckman, Stixrud, and Urzua (2006).
19 Figure 3e Daily Smoker at Age 18, by Ability.6.5 Probability Percentile Males Cognitive Males Non Cognitive Females Cognitive Females Non Cognitive Note: This figure plots the probability of a given behavior associated with moving up in one ability distribution for someone after integrating out the other distribution. For example, the lines with markers show the effect of increasing noncognitive ability after integrating the cognitive ability. Source: Heckman, Stixrud, and Urzua (2006).
20 Figure 3f Probabilty of Being Single with Children Females.1.08 Probability Percentile Cognitive Non Cognitive Note: This figure plots the probability of a given behavior associated with moving up in one ability distribution for someone after integrating out the other distribution. For example, the lines with markers show the effect of increasing noncognitive ability after integrating the cognitive ability. Source: Heckman, Stixrud, and Urzua (2006).
25 5 O
26 Figure 6a Perry Preschool Program: IQ, by Age and Treatment Group IQ Entry Age Treatment Group Control Group Source: Perry Preschool Program. IQ measured on the Stanford Binet Intelligence Scale (Terman & Merrill, 1960). Test was administered at program entry and each of the ages indicated.
27 Figure 6b Perry Preschool Program: Educational Effects, by Treatment Group Special Education 15% 34% High Achievement at Age 14* 15% 49% On Time Grad. from HS 45% 66% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Treatment Control Source: Barnett (2004). *High achievement defined as performance at or above the 10th percentile.
28 Figure 6c Perry Preschool Program: Economic Effects at Age 27, by Treatment Group Earn +$2,000 Monthly 7% 29% Own Home 13% 36% Never on Welfare as Adult* 14% 29% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Treatment Control Source: Barnett (2004). *Updated through Age 40 using recent Perry Preschool Program data, derived from self report and all available state records.
29 Figure 6d Perry Preschool Program: Arrests per Person before Age 40, by Treatment Group Control Treatment Felony Misdemeanor Juvenile Source: Perry Preschool Program. Juvenile arrests are defined as arrests prior to age 19.
30 Rate of return to investment in human capital 7 Rates of return to human capital investment initially setting investment to be equal across all ages Preschool programs Schooling r Job training Opportunity cost of funds Preschool School Post-school 0 Age Rates of return to human capital investment initially setting investment to be equal across all ages
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CRIME Doesn t Pay, but DIPLOMAS Do! Every year approximately 1.3 million students THAT s 7,000 every school day do not graduate from high school as scheduled. About 75 percent of America s state prison