Parks Victoria Climate Change Strategic Risk Assessment

Transcription

1 Parks Victoria Climate Change Strategic Risk Assessment SUMMARY REPORT DECEMBER 2010

2 FOREWORD The Victorian parks system covers almost 17% of the State (approximately 4.04 million hectares) and encompasses national parks, conservation reserves, urban parks, marine national parks and marine sanctuaries. The parks system plays a crucial role in protecting biodiversity and providing ecosystem services (clean air and water, regulating climate, maintaining healthy waterways, preventing soil erosion) in the wide range of environments they represent. Parks Victoria (PV) is the agency responsible for the management of parks and reserves within the Department of Sustainability and Environment (DSE) portfolio. The Victorian Government is implementing policies and programs to address climate change risks across all sectors. Parks are one of the areas where evidence of climate driven impacts in increasing. This strategic risk assessment report aims to inform adaptation planning for park management. Adaptation planning for the parks system will align with DSE and Government policy directions and will be co-ordinated with the work and lead responsibilities of other Victorian government agencies. The risk assessment was completed in late 2010 and the extreme weather events of recent months highlight the need to understand the risks and nature of impacts on parks. Massive flood damage in the Grampians, Wilsons Promontory and elsewhere follows on from repeated major bushfires since The risk assessment does not rely on certainty or complete knowledge, but rather aims to identify threats pre-emptively by making judgments about the likelihood of their occurrence and the severity of the impacts if they do occur. This is an important first step in identifying and prioritising the risks posed to parks from climate change. PV s climate change response program is taking a two stream approach: actively dealing with extreme weather events that are unfolding here and now fire, flood, storms and drought; and working with DSE and others on long-term research and adaptation to slow-onset climate change impacts such as warming, permanent shifts in rainfall and sea level rise. Evidence of slow-onset changes has been mounting for several decades. Now there is increasing evidence that extreme weather events are intensifying (Climate Commission report The Critical Decade Climate science risks and responses 1 ). The most important of these events are high temperature-related events, such as heatwaves and bushfires; heavy precipitation events; and storms, such as tropical cyclones and hailstorms. The evidence suggests changes in average temperature and rainfall can lead to very large changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme events, illustrated below. Increased frequency and severity of storms and fires over the past decade has already led to changes in the way we manage parks and surrounding public land in Victoria. Management interventions that were once periodic have become part of ongoing operations. Park closures are becoming increasingly necessary during extreme events. Park facilities are being impacted, particularly coastal piers, jetties and seawalls, roads, walking tracks and visitor facilities in bushfire prone areas. 45% Large increase in extreme weather days Increase in mean temperature (around 2ºC) 40% 35% 30% Likelihood 25% 20% 15% Exteme days occur 26% of time 10% 5% 0% Occur 5% of time Landslip due to flooding (Grampians National Park). Parks Victoria July Climate Commission Secretariat (2011), The Critical Decade Climate science risks and responses (2011). Australian Government Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency 2

3 1 KEY FINDINGS This Climate Change Strategic Risk Assessment describes the risks that climate change poses to Victoria s parks system which for the purpose of risk assessment and adaptation planning includes all areas managed by Parks Victoria. Park Management has been adapting to climate change for more than a decade. Parks Victoria s climate change response is taking a risk management approach to inform adaptation planning. Responses to climate change are focussed on mitigation, adaptation, research and evaluation, and communication. It brings together the work done for the Strategic Risk Assessment for the Victorian parks system that was developed with consultants Marsden Jacob Associates and adds a further level of detail through analysis of the identified risks to key Parks Victoria managed areas. The risk assessment follows the Australian Standard for Risk Management AS/NZS 4360:2004 and the Commonwealth Government s guide for climate change risk assessment. Risks and trends The Strategic Risk Assessment is an initial high level climate change risk assessment to enable Parks Victoria to prioritise risks across the organisation s responsibilities. The assessment is about scoping the breadth of potential climate change impacts on parks, identifying evident first priorities for adaptation response based on current knowledge, and the priorities for research in areas of uncertainty. The park values and activities that may be affected by climate change encompass all of Parks Victoria outputs and operations. Accordingly, the risk assessment was pitched at a broad level with the purpose of identifying priority areas for more detailed work. It confirmed the expectation that climate change impacts in most cases will intensify existing threats such as bushfire, storm damage and ecosystem stresses such as the spread of weeds and pests. In a few cases the threats will be new, for example rising sea level. The Risk Assessment highlights six key areas of risk for Parks Victoria and four ecosystems present in parks under particular threat. The key risks identified can be broadly aggregated into the following categories: 1. Increased bushfire impacts (fire regime changes, emergency management demands, asset loss, tourism disruption). 2. Increased flood and storm impacts (particularly coastal storm surge, land form erosion, inundation, asset damage). 3. Hotter drier recreation conditions (loss of amenity, changing visitation patterns to inland waterways, lakes, coasts, alps). 4. Increased and generalised ecosystem stress (new/emerging weeds and pests, species geographic range changes, altered phenology). 5. Four ecosystems at higher risk: Alpine, Dry Forests & Woodlands, Inland Waterways & Wetlands, and Coastal & Marine (embayments). 6. Increased financial and economic costs & impacts on organisational effectiveness. The assessment provides ratings for terrestrial biodiversity risks, marine biodiversity risks and non-biodiversity risks to visitor services and assets, cultural heritage and management operations. Risks were assessed in three timeframes current, at 2030 and at 2070 to reflect the projected climate conditions at these times based on CSIRO modelling. Risks that rate Very High in the short term are those that are already being impacted by climate factors. The graph below shows the project trends: Terrestrial biodiversity: This result reflects the climate change assumptions for a progressive increase in impacts over the coming decades, as predicted from available science. A number of climate impacts are already apparent for specific ecosystems and concern the disruption of habitat structure due to altered fire regimes, the loss of remnant refugia and drought impacts. Marine biodiversity: This result reflects that climate change impacts of sea level rise and ocean temperature and chemistry changes are at present uncertain, but when assumptions based on the available science for a progressive increase in impacts over the coming decades are factored in, there is a step change in the number of Very High rated risks. Visitor services, cultural heritage, operational and other non-biodiversity risks: This result reflects the climatic conditions of the past decade with drought, high fire risk periods, and severe storm events that are already affecting Parks Victoria s management and operations. As for the biodiversity risks, the predictions are for a progressive increase in impacts over the coming decades. Trend in percentage of risks rated very high from 2010 to 2070 Percentage of risks rated very high (current) Priority areas of risk The key climate change priority risks that have emerged from the strategic risk assessment are summarised below: Terrestrial biodiversity risks 2030 (year) 2070 (year) Terrestrial biodiversity Marine biodiversity Visitor/asset Generic (common to all ecosystems) Four generic climate change risks rated highly across all ecosystems: Reduced extent of refugia for native flora and fauna as a result of increased peak and average temperatures, reduced rainfall and increased moisture stress was identified as likely to lead to changed distribution and abundance of species, including the spread of plant and animal pests and increased disturbance of ecosystems. Altered fire regimes (including changes in factors such as frequency, intensity, season, scale and patchiness) resulting from increased peak and average temperatures, reduced rainfall and increased high and extreme fire weather days was identified as likely to result in changes in floristic composition, habitat structure and diversity and increased disturbance of ecosystems. Loss of ephemeral waterways and wetlands as a result of increased peak and average temperatures, reduced rainfall, runoff and surface water was identified as likely to lead to increased pressure on aquatic or amphibious species and communities. Altered vegetation and animal phenology resulting from altered timing and characteristics of seasonal rainfall events and temperature changes was identified as resulting in altered reproduction, feeding and other critical community interactions, altered ecosystem structure and increased disturbance of ecosystems. 3

4 Alpine ecosystem The vast majority of the alpine ecosystem of Victoria is reserved within the parks system in the Alps and SE Highlands bioregions. These parks include the Alpine National Park (NP), Mount Baw Baw NP, Mt Buffalo NP, Burrowa Pine Mt NP and Yarra Ranges NP. The large area of alpine ecosystem within that parks system means this ecosystem is of particular relevance for Parks Victoria. Alpine ecosystems are at risk from increased frequency and intensity bushfires, and increased temperature reducing the extent of refugia for flora and fauna with limited opportunity to retreat upwards. The decrease in the amount and duration of snow and subsequently runoff affects the population dynamics and survival of a number of mammals. The altered fire regimes (frequency, intensity, season, scale and patchiness) are leading to increased disturbance of the Alps ecosystem. Inland waters and wetlands ecosystem Parks within the Riverina and Victorian Volcanic Plain bioregions at high risk include the Murray River corridor and Icon Ramsar sites, e.g. Barmah NP, Gunbower NP, Lower Goulbourn NP, Broken-Boosey SP, Koorangie (The Marshes & Avoca Floodway) WR and Hattah-Kulkyne NP, Murray River Park and the Western District Lakes Ramsar site. Inland waters and wetlands are subject to increased stress on rivers already under pressure from salinity, over allocation and declining water quality. The loss of ephemeral waterways and wetlands is leading to increased pressure on aquatic or amphibious species and communities and a decline in the quality and volume of Ramsar listed wetlands changing ecological character and reducing habitat for migratory birds. Dry forest and woodland ecosystem Parks within the Victorian Midlands bioregion in particular the Box Ironbark forests in central Victoria such as Greater Bendigo NP, Heathcote-Graytown NP, Kooyoora SP, and St Arnaud Range NP. Dry forests and woodlands are subject to climate change projections of a hotter and drier climate and increased fire threat have implications for the abundance and distribution of woodland bird species. Recent research has identified a major decline in woodland birds in central Victorian dry forests. Coastal ecosystem All parks along the coast will be impacted by climate change to some degree, with the South East Coastal Plain (parks include Gippsland Lakes CP, Mornington Peninsula NP, Wilson s Promontory NP, and the Great Otway NP) bioregion at high risk: The highest current risk is storm surge activity leading to increased erosion of vulnerable habitats particularly soft sediments (sand, mudflats, coastal cliffs, beaches). The predicted impacts of sea level rise, coastal inundation and increased storm frequency and surge will lead to loss of beach and dune systems, mangrove, salt-marsh and estuarine flora and wetlands, in particular in areas of low topographic relief or where bounded by other land uses. Salinity impacts on coastal freshwater wetlands will lead to displacement of vegetation communities. Climate change exacerbates condition decline in living Murray icon site stands Researchers conducting a project to map the condition of River Red Gum and Black Box stands in The Living Murray icon sites have noted that lack of water, due to river regulation/water extraction and below average rainfall (predicted to worsen with climate change) is leading to significant decline in stand condition. Victorian sites examined include the Barmah-Millewa Forest; Gunbower and Koondrook- Perricoota forests; Hattah Lakes; Chowilla Floodplain (Lindsay- Wallpolla Islands); and the River Murray Channel. Over the last two decades, the Murray River floodplain has experienced two extended periods of below average rainfall ( , 2001-present) with record low inflows (Cai & Cowan, 2008). These drought conditions, combined with extensive river regulation, have significantly decreased the frequency and extent of floods on which the woodlands rely. Mapping indicates that the extent of stressed stands across the Living Murray icon sites was substantially lower (66%) in 2003, compared with 2009, and that half of the areas in the Riverina forests that had good condition stands in 2003, had declined to a stressed condition by The sites in best condition were unsurprisingly those that had received environmental watering. The researchers concluded that water availability (rainfall and flooding) across The Living Murray icon sites remains insufficient to maintain the majority of forests and woodlands in good condition, and that climate change may cause the substantial declines currently observed in the Lower Murray to progress upstream as flooding frequencies and rainfall are further reduced. Parks Victoria in conjunction with other land and water management authorities is now undertaking a series of activities designed to preserve the River Red Gum and Black Box stands in North-west Victoria including water recovery and a River Red Gum ecological thinning trial. Cai W. & Cowan T. (2008) Evidence of impacts from rising temperature on inflows to the Murray-Darling Basin. Geophysical Research Letters, 35, L Cunningham SC, Mac Nally R, Griffioen P and White M (2009), Mapping the Condition of River Red Gum and Black Box Stands in The Living Murray Icon Sites. A Milestone Report to the Murray-Darling Basin Authority as part of Contract MD1114. Murray-Darling Basin Authority, Canberra. 4

5 Climate change science The risk assessment utilised the existing authoritive science on the predicted impacts of climate change including the three sources cited below. Risks were assessed in three timeframes current, at 2030 and at 2070 to reflect the projected climate conditions at these times based on CSIRO modelling presented in Climate change in Australia: technical report The key findings of this report include that by 2030, temperatures will rise by about 1ºC over Australia a little less in coastal areas, and a little more inland later in the century. Warming depends on the extent of greenhouse gas emissions. If emissions are low, warming of between 1ºC and 2.5ºC is likely by around 2070, with a best estimate of 1.8 ºC. Under a high emission scenario, the best estimate warming is 3.4ºC, with a range of 2.2ºC to 5ºC. Further, the report indicates there will be changes in temperature extremes, with fewer frosts and substantially more days over 35 ºC. It also predicts that decreases in annual average rainfall are likely in southern Australia rainfall is likely to decrease in southern areas during winter, in southern and eastern areas during spring, and along the west coast during autumn. The report indicates that although there will be more dry days, when it does rain, rainfall is likely to be more intense. Dunlop, M. and P. R. Brown (2008). Implications of climate change for Australia s National Reserve System: A preliminary assessment. Australian species and some ecosystems have already shown changes consistent with climate projections. Climate change will affect many aspects of Australia s biodiversity that are valued by society including the look, sound and smell of ecosystems, as well as tourism and recreational opportunities. Significant reductions of diversity would be likely to also result in interruptions to ecosystem function and loss of ecosystem services. These changes will also have a wide range of implications for biodiversity conservation and the National Reserve System, including managing ever-changing biodiversity, new and changing threats, different information requirements, and a need to reassess the fundamental goals of conservation. Climate change will have a wide range of impacts on species and ecosystems, including four threats that will be particularly hard to manage due to strong biophysical and social dimensions: the arrival of new (native and exotic) species in a region, altered fire regimes, land use change and altered hydrology. Hobday, A.J., Okey, T.A., Poloczanska, E.S., Kunz, T.J. & Richardson, A.J. (eds) (2006), Impacts of climate change on Australian marine life. Five different factors considered important in determining overall vulnerability of biodiversity in the marine environment were selected and analysed. Climate change will not act alone, but is a cumulative stressor along with other anthropogenic impacts, and as such areas subject to existing pressures will be more vulnerable. These factors include: Biological endemism, marine exotics, numbers of threatened species, Regional characteristics limited networks, total areas. Climate change likelihood of changes in key climate change drivers, Fishing stress effort applied, gear used, recreational activity and Other anthropogenic factors - pollutants, development and industrial activity. It is notable that fishing stress and other anthropogenic factors are most extreme for south-eastern Australia. Ecosystems at risk: bird crash in the box ironbark forests of central Victoria A recent study 1 conducted jointly by Deakin, Monash and Melbourne Universities into bird species in Box Ironbark forests concluded that climate change is contributing to the very serious decline in bird populations occurring in Central Victorian dry forests and woodlands. A number of parks were created or expanded in 2002 to protect these forests including St Arnaud Range National Park, Chiltern-Mt Pilot National Park and Greater Bendigo National Park. The study surveyed the occurrence and abundance of bird species in Box Ironbark Forests over a period of severe rainfall deficiency and increasing average temperatures ( ). It also measured flowering in eucalypts, which support large numbers of nectarivores characteristic of the region such as the Regent Honeyeater pictured. The study found a steep decline in rainfall over its period and a significant increase in average temperature (0.38±0.09 SE C) relative to historical records. This coincided with a decline in two thirds of the woodland bird species in the region. A key finding was that the decline was similar across species irrespective of their foraging or nesting patterns, and did not vary significantly between extensive forest remnants and poorer forest remnant sites. These factors led the researchers to conclude that the declines are climate driven or at least reflect the added stresses of sharp reductions in rainfall and increases in temperature, including widespread reduction in habitat quality and food availability, both nectar and insects. Disturbingly no eucalypt flowering was detected in and virtually no bird breeding was detected in the final survey period ( ). The study concluded that the climactic conditions expected under climate change render bird populations even less resilient to land-use change than previously thought and that decline in bird numbers in the largest woodland remnants matched those in cleared landscapes suggesting that reserve systems may not be relied upon to sustain species under climate change. Lack of breeding success due to lack of food was the key factor in the population declines. Resilience of bird populations in this woodland system might be increased by active management to enhance habitat quality in existing vegetation and restoration of woodland in the more fertile parts of landscapes. Parks Victoria and DSE are currently conducting an ecological thinning trial in Box-Ironbark parks. The trial is designed to support a realistic vision of healthy Box-Ironbark forest/woodland ecosystems and how they could be managed. Ecological thinning techniques have been designed to maximise desirable habitat and biodiversity values and provide a rigorous scientific basis for the Box-Ironbark Ecological Management Strategy. It is hoped that ecological thinning will prove to be one effective tool employed in the management of these important ecosystems. 1 Mac Nally, Ralph, Bennett, Andrew F, Thomson, James R, Radford, James Q, Unmack, Guy, Horrocks, Gregory, and Vesk, Peter, 2009, Collapse of avifauna: climate change appears to exacerbate habitat loss and degradation, Diversity and Distributions, Vol 15., pp Dunlop, M. and P. R. Brown (2008). Implications of climate change for Australia s National Reserve System: A preliminary assessment. Report to the Department of Climate Change, February Canberra, Australia, Department of Climate Change. 3 Hobday, A.J., Okey, T.A., Poloczanska, E.S., Kunz, T.J. & Richardson, A.J. (eds) (2006), Impacts of climate change on Australian marine life. Report to the Australian Greenhouse Office, Canberra, Australia. 5

6 Marine biodiversity risks The marine biodiversity risk assessment includes Estuaries, and whilst there is much that is currently unknown about the scale and timing of climate change on Victoria s marine systems, impacts are predicted for the broad range of habitats in the marine and coastal parks and the marine national parks and sanctuaries: Increasingly variable weather events influencing precipitation and catchment runoff, the frequency and intensity of storm events and storm surge, with estuaries also areas likely to be significantly impacted. This is a high risk for the Victorian Embayments (Port Phillip, Westernport, Corner Inlet and Nooramunga) and Central Victoria bioregions. Increasing rates of environmental change due to increasing water temperatures and altered currents and water circulation systems with potential for changed species distribution including emergence of new pests. This is most apparent in the Twofold Shelf bioregion along eastern Victoria. Sea level rise will create an ecological squeeze effect for intertidal organisms on rock shelves and platforms leading to loss of suitable habitat for some species, loss of connectivity and coastal erosion. A greater unknown but potentially very high risk is changed acidity (ph decline) and salinity concentrations causing the decline of cold water carbonate dependent species with significant impacts on food webs. Visitor services, cultural heritage, operational risks Climate change will challenge the capacity of park managers to meet visitor expectations for recreational facilities and access to appropriate and sustainable park services. Victoria s parks contain a range of built assets with a total replacement value in excess of $1 billion, designed and managed to improve the visitor experience and protect the natural environment. Built assets Increased risk of damage to the high proportion of park assets located in forested, remote and coastal areas or in close proximity to inland waters. Location in these areas makes assets particularly vulnerable to increased bushfire, flooding and storm risks. The compliance requirements and financial cost of meeting Government building codes and service standards including the reputational risk to Parks Victoria of not meeting community expectations for environmental sustainability. Increase in insurance premiums and diversion of funds and resources to recovery of assets Disruptions to service delivery. Increased destruction of built structures and visitor facilities (especially older timber structures) due to greater frequency and intensity of bushfires. Storm frequency and intensity is likely to increase damage associated with high winds, tree fall and flooding including roads and walking tracks. Coastal infrastructure such as jetties and piers may be damaged by more frequent and intense storms combined with higher sea levels. Visitor services and experience Construction, servicing and maintenance of existing facilities such as ovals and grassed picnic areas, shade trees, safe harbours and other infrastructure is likely to be affected by reduced water availability and increased risks of damaging weather events. Park closures, access controls and other restrictions resulting from extreme fire and weather conditions both during events and during recovery phases after events or environmental protection requirements will periodically reduce access to parks with potential for significant impacts on visitors, tourism business operations and local support services in nearby communities. Changed patterns of visitation and visitor experience affected by reduced amenity of parks and recreation areas results in redundancy of assets in some areas (e.g. inland waters and alpine areas) and increased demand for assets in other areas (e.g. coastal areas). Maintaining business continuity during emergency periods to ensure services are provided, for example at coastal or urban locations during major inland bushfires. Cultural values management Parks Victoria manages numerous Indigenous cultural and historic places which remain from the past occupation and uses of the land now protected within the parks and reserves system. Destruction or major damage to coastal significant Aboriginal heritage and archaeological sites due to coastal flooding and erosion. Fire and emergency management Increasingly severe fire weather combined with drier fuel and lower ground moisture levels is likely to result in more frequent fires of longer duration. Modelling suggests that fire seasons will start earlier and end later, while generally being more intense throughout their length. A longer and more intense fire season may decrease the time available for planned burning. Increase in frequency of severe, extreme and catastrophic fire weather leading to an increased frequency of catastrophic wildfire with significant loss of life or injury of park visitors. Potential legal ramifications and/or increased frequency of park closures including economic impacts, loss of public and private assets and disruptions to local communities (e.g. tourism businesses, road closures). Increase in Parks Victoria s costs due to other climate related policy responses (e.g. more stringent codes and statutory requirements, insurance premiums). Priorities for improving knowledge The risk assessment process has identified a number of areas where there was not enough knowledge readily as hand to determine the extent of risk from climate change. While this is generally reflected in a lower rating of these risks due to uncertainty in this report, these areas are flagged that further research is required in relation to the climate change impacts: Ecological response to climate change in the four ecosystems at high risk: alpine, inland waterways and wetlands, dry forests and woodlands and coastal and marine. Soils and fungi known to be critical components in ecosystem function and health. Effects of altered fire regimes. Effects of altered hydrology. Changes in phenology, such as the timing and seasonality of plant flowering. Changes in visitor demand and activity. Connectivity in the marine environment, new and emerging pest species, changes to the distribution and range of species and estuary water quality research. Parks at higher risk The climate change risk assessment includes all areas managed by Parks Victoria as part of Victoria s broader park system, including bays, waterways and maritime assets, refer Map 1. Parks are already or predicted to face climate change impacts in the short to medium term. These are: Coastal parks and infrastructure. Increased damage to or loss of foreshore areas, facilities and assets such as coastal piers, jetties, boat launches and moorings arising from storm surges, coastal flooding and erosion due to sea level rise, storm surges and coastal erosion. Alpine park assets and ecosystems are at risk from increased frequency and intensity bushfires. Parks on inland water. Loss or reduction of access to water impacts on visitation and service delivery. Water-based activity options are reduced where lakes and rivers suffer significant reductions in water levels or the quality and quantity of natural water supplies from creeks and rivers declines. Boat ramps, rowing launches, jetties and campground assets become stranded due to receding water lines. Metropolitan Parklands. Loss of amenity (water features, grass, trees, landscape character) increased tree risk and management costs, reduced water available to plants and a loss of amenity from shade trees and recreational grasslands. 6

7 Map 1: Victoria s park system Opportunities Sustainable park management practices The climate change impacts on the park system are serious and affect all areas of Parks Victoria s responsibilities. However there are several areas that provide the opportunity to make progress towards beneficial outcomes. These opportunities will be addressed in the Adaptation Planning for the parks system and include: Working to reduce carbon emissions associated with management operations to reduce the carbon footprint of operations and to demonstrate leadership in sustainability consistent with the role as a custodian of the environment. Parks Victoria s Resource Smart program will increase energy efficiency and reduce energy use, increase recycling and reduce the use of emissions-intensive products or activities. Increasing revegetation plantings in the park system for biodiversity benefits and carbon sequestration including participation in landscape scale conservation projects in and around parks. A realignment of asset and visitor services to meet changing community expectation and demands a climate change impacts affect recreation patterns. Taking a leadership role in communicating the impacts of climate change on the park system and assisting the broader community understand and adapt to climate change impacts, for example in the context of Healthy Parks Healthy People. 7

8 Implementing sustainability: Albert Park Lake Parks Victoria manages several fresh water lakes and streams that are used for recreational purposes. A high profile example is Albert Park Lake, which is used for sailing and rowing as well as its ornamental value. Until 2003, Albert Park Lake was topped up every summer with 100 megalitres of drinking water. In 2003 Parks Victoria decided to cease this practice. The immediate impact of the decision not to use drinking water to top up the lake was a substantial drop in the depth of the lake the following summer. Many water-based recreational activities were impacted. The lake could only be used by shallow draught yachts, and rowers were unable to launch from the old fixed landings, which had become too high above the water level for safe use. New floating pontoons for the rowing clubs resolved the access issue and diversion of an increased proportion of storm water run-off into Albert Park Lake in 2003/04 has ensured the lake is maintained at an appropriate depth for recreational uses since then. Increased use of automated irrigation systems at Albert Park has allowed more efficient watering of ovals, and lake water is soon to be used for irrigation. While lake water irrigation will initially have a supplementary role, the longer term aim is to transition to exclusive use of lake water for irrigation. Warm season grasses have also been used to increase the resilience of sports fields and reduce water requirements at Albert Park. Careful tree selection, featuring a mixture of indigenous and deciduous exotics, is further enhancing the resilience of Albert Park and protecting its amenity values. In the short-term, irrigation from stored storm water is likely to be cost effective in a relatively small number of locations, but taking a longer-term view may make this a viable option more generally. Improved selection of turf species may help increase the resilience of some areas but it is almost inevitable that the number and distribution of European style grassed parklands will be reduced over time. 8

9 Figure 1: Overview of risk categories for Parks Victoria Parks Victoria Climate Change Risk Categories Biodiversity Terrestrial Alps Coastal Australian Alps, South East Corner, South Eastern Highlands Flinders, Naracoorte Coastal Plain, SE Coastal Plain Dry Forest and Woodlands Heathland Flinders, Murray Darling Depression, Naracoorte Coastal Plain, SE Coastal Plain, SE Corner, Victorian Inland Waters and Wetlands Mallee Murray Darling Depression, NSW South Western Slopes, SE Coastal Plain, SE Corner, South Eastern Highlands, Victorian Midlands, Victorian Volcanic Plain Grasslands Riverina, SE Coastal Plain, Victorian Volcanic Plain Murray Darling Depression, Naracoorte Coastal Plain, NSW South Western Slopes, Riverina, SE Coastal Plain, SE Corner, SE Highlands, Victorian Midlands, Victorian Volcanic Plain Murray Darling Depression, Riverina, Victorian Midlands Wet Forest and Rainforest Australian Alps, Flinders, South East Corner, South Eastern Highlands Marine Intertidal Rocky Shores Subtidal Rocky Reefs Seagrass Beds Sheltered Intertidal Flats Intertidal Sandy Beaches Pelagic Environments Estuaries Visitor services, Cultural Heritage and Operations Built assets Building & Facilities Access Infrastructure Inland Water Assets Water & Waste Water General & Other Recreation & Tourism Visitation Visitor Experience Tourism Industry Non-indigenous Cultural Heritage Heritage Buildings Archaeological Sites Horticultural Landscapes Indigenous Cultural Heritage Heritage Sites Indigenous Connection to Country Health & Wellbeing Occupational Health, safety, wellbeing Public Safety Community Wellbeing Emergency Management Prevention and preparation Response and Recovery Government Policy Climate Policy Community Response 9