Research Report 04. Key implications. The impact of the Licensing Act 2003 on levels of crime and disorder: an evaluation

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1 Research Report 04 Key impications The impact of the Licensing Act 2003 on eves of crime and disorder: an evauation Mike Hough, Giian Hunter, Jessica Jacobson, Stefano Cossater ICPR, King s Coege London Key impications for decision makers The Licensing Act 2003, which came into force at the end of November 2005, aboished set icensing hours in Engand and Waes. Opening hours of premises are now set ocay through the conditions of individua icences. The aim was to iberaise a rigid system whist reducing the probems of drinking and disorder associated with a standard cosing time. The Act gave icensing authorities new powers over icensed premises, whist giving oca peope more of a say in individua icensing decisions. It was hoped that in the onger term its provisions couped with other government initiatives woud hep to bring about a more benign drinking cuture. The overa voume of incidents of crime and disorder remains unchanged, though there are signs that crimes invoving serious vioence may have reduced. However, there is evidence of tempora dispacement, in that the sma proportion of vioent crime occurring in the sma hours of the morning has grown. Acoho-reated demands on Accident & Emergency (A&E) departments appear to have been stabe in aggregate, though some hospita services have seen increased demand, others a fa. In the run-up to impementation, there was widespread concern that the egisation woud ead to 24-hour drinking and an increase in associated probems. These fears were not met in the year after impementation. Nor are there any cear signs yet that the aboition of a standard cosing time has significanty reduced probems of crime and disorder. The scae of change in icensing hours has been both variabe and modest: whie the majority of pubs have etended their hours, most of these etensions have been short. The imited evidence suggests that acoho consumption has faen sighty, athough some peope are drinking unti ater into the night. Contents Key impications for decison makers Summary i 1. Introduction 1 2. Impementation: impact on icensing hours and consumption 4 3. Acoho-reated crime and disorder: the nationa picture 8 4. Acoho-reated crime and disorder: the case studies How does our eperience match with other countries? Making sense of the findings 17 Poice, oca authorities and icensees generay wecomed the changes, the new powers it gave them, and the Act s partnership phiosophy. They did not report significant probems with impementation once teething probems were soved and did not think generay that acohoreated probems of crime and disorder had worsened. In surveys, oca residents were ess ikey to say that drunk and rowdy behaviour was a probem after the change than before it, and the majority thought that acoho-reated crime was stabe or decining. The main concusion to be drawn from the evauation is that icensing regimes may be one factor in effecting change to the country s drinking cuture and its impact on crime but they do not appear to be the critica factor. The key issue is how they interact with other factors. Keywords Licensing Licensing Act Licensing Act 2003 Acoho Acoho-reated crime Night time economy Vioence Vioent crime Disorder Binge drinking The views epressed in this report are those of the authors, not necessariy those of the Home Office (nor do they refect Government poicy). Research, Deveopment and Statistics improves poicy making, decision taking and practice in support of the Home Office purpose and aims, to provide the pubic and Pariament with information necessary for informed debate and to pubish information for future use. Crown copyright 2008 ISSN ISBN March 2008

2 Research Report 04 Eecutive summary Research Report 04 March 2008 The impact of the Licensing Act 2003 on eves of crime and disorder: an evauation Mike Hough, Giian Hunter, Jessica Jacobson, Stefano Cossater, ICPR, King s Coege London Summary The Licensing Act 2003, introduced in November 2005, aboished set icensing hours in Engand and Waes. Opening hours of premises are now set ocay through the conditions of individua icences. The aim was to iberaise a rigid system whist reducing the probems of heavy drinking and disorder associated with a standard cosing time. The intention was not simpy to rea drinking hours but to provide icensing authorities with new powers and to encourage better partnership working. It was hoped that in the onger term, the Act in combination with nationa and oca acoho strategies woud aso hep bring about a sensibe drinking cuture which attached ess vaue to heavy drinking and drunkenness as ends in themseves. The Act has been the subject of much controversy. Athough its aim was specificay to address probems associated with atenight drinking, in the run-up to impementation it was presented by some of the media as a drunkard s charter, whereby acoho woud be on sae 24 hours a day. There was concern both about the pubic heath impact of the new icensing regime and about its effects on crime and disorder. The Home Office put into pace a muti-strand evauation, focusing argey on the Act s impact on crime and disorder. The various eements incude: a statistica eercise covering 30 of the 43 poice forces in Engand and Waes; a nationa teephone survey of poice icensing officers; findings from the British Crime Survey (BCS) Night Time Economy modue covering periods before and after impementation; and detaied case studies of the eperience of five towns and cities. This report pus together the key findings from these various strands. It aso draws on previousy pubished materia on the Act, notaby Department of Cuture Media and Sport (DCMS) statistics, HM Revenue and Customs statistics as pubished by the British Beer and Pub Association (BBPA), a survey of demands on Accident & Emergency (A&E) hospita services and a nationa survey of oca authorities. To pace the findings in contet, the research team aso mounted an internationa review of the reevant academic iterature on acoho reated crime and how to manage the night time economy. Coectivey, the different strands of the evauation can describe trends in acohoreated crime and disorder in the periods before and after the Act s impementation. What the evauation cannot do, however, is to answer counterfactua questions about the direction that trends woud have taken, had the Act not been impemented. The 2003 Licensing Act The probems created by standardised pub cosing times were a source of concern for many years. On the one hand, the simpe fact of a cosing time was thought to encourage some drinkers to drink as much as they coud whist they coud. On the other, standardised cosing times meant that across the country arge numbers of - mainy young - peope in various states of drunkenness were decanted into open pubic space and onto pubic transport simutaneousy. The Licensing Act 2003 passed the responsibiity for icensing from Magistrates Courts to oca authorities. It simpified the icensing aw by introducing a singe premises icence covering the provision of acoho, reguated entertainment and refreshments ate at night in pace of the si types of icence that previousy eisted. Cruciay it repaced the statutory icensing hours with opening hours set ocay through the conditions of individua icences. It aso gave the icensing authorities new powers over icensees, and encouraged partnership-working between the oca authority, the poice and others. The views epressed in this report are those of the authors, not necessariy those of the Home Office (nor do they refect Government poicy). Research, Deveopment and Statistics improves poicy making, decision taking and practice in support of the Home Office purpose and aims, to provide the pubic and Pariament with information necessary for informed debate and to pubish information for future use. Crown copyright 2008 ISSN ISBN March 2008 i

3 The impact of the Licensing Act 2003 on eves of crime and disorder: an evauation The new icensing authorities were epected to grant the icences requested by icensees uness there were we-founded objections that doing so was inconsistent with the Act s four icensing objectives: to prevent crime and disorder; to promote pubic safety; and to prevent pubic nuisance. Athough it was the aboition of standardised icensing hours that gave rise to fears about 24-hour drinking, the aim was to iberaise a rigid system whist reducing the probems of rapid drinking and disorder associated with a standard cosing time. Staggered pub and cub cosing hours were intended to avoid the cosing time meées that created such probems. It was aso hoped that the move away from imited, standardised drinking hours woud discourage ecessive drinking and encourage a more reaed, southern European-stye drinking cuture, over the onger term. Impact on icensing hours and consumption Overa, there was a modest increase in opening hours. According to a DCMS snapshot survey of a sma number of icensing authorities conducted shorty after the changes, ony a very sma minority of pubs and cubs appied for 24-hour icences. A fifth stuck with their od 11pm cosing time, and haf appied for an hour s etension to midnight. The remaining 30 per cent opted for 1am cosing. These times represented the atest that estabishments coud serve acoho. Some icensees eercised this right ony rarey and others used the etension as a winding down period. The most recent DCMS statistics indicate that ony 470 pubs, bars and nightcubs have 24-hour icences. An anaysis of cosing times commissioned by the DCMS in November 2007 found that most icensed premises continued to cose at 11pm and the rest etended their opening hours by haf an hour or an hour. Actua cosing times across a types of estabishment were etended on average by 21 minutes. The British Crime Survey (BCS) Night Time Economy modue suggests that there has been no change in frequency of pub usage. There are indications that some peope now drink ater into the night as one woud epect given that some premises are staying open for onger though according to two YouGov surveys conducted for the British Beer and Pub Association (BBPA) more than four out of five of the popuation think that the new provisions have not encouraged them to change their drinking patterns. The Genera Househod Survey, which incudes sef-report data on acoho consumption, suggests that the average amount of acoho consumed per person fe sighty between 2005 and BBPA statistics derived from HM Revenue & Customs (based on ecise duty returns) aso show that the fa in acoho consumption in icensed premises that began in 2005 continued into Impact on eves of acoho-reated crime and disorder: the nationa picture In Juy 2007, the Home Office pubished findings from an anaysis of data coected from a sef-seecting sampe of poice forces. Comparing the 12-month periods before and after the change, the survey of 30 poice forces shows a one per cent fa in recorded incidents invoving vioence, crimina damage and harassment, and a fa of five per cent in serious vioent crimes. The timing of incidents of crime and disorder has changed, however. There was a one per cent rise in the overa number of incidents occurring between 6pm and 6am, and a steep rise in the sma minority of incidents occurring in the sma hours (3am or ater). Thus for the we-measured category of more serious crimes of vioence, there was an increase in the number of offences committed between 3am and 6am that was sma in absoute terms (236 incidents) but arge in proportionate terms (25%). The peak time for serious vioent crime shifted forward by about an hour. The 30-force survey showed an overa seven per cent increase in recorded harassment offences in the year after the change, but this is best interpreted as a consequence of the depoyment of new poice powers, notaby the abiity to issue penaty notices for disorder (PNDs) which are a too used by the poice to tacke ow eve offending and anti-socia behaviour, incuding drunken and rowdy behaviour. Athough some studies showed increases in acoho-reated hospita attendances and ambuance ca-outs, a survey of 33 A&E departments across Engand and Waes found a two per cent fa in assaut reated injury attendances in 2006 compared with 2005, this fa being concentrated amongst women. According to the BCS Night Time Economy modue, there was aso no change foowing the introduction of the Act in the proportion of peope feeing unsafe in town centres at night, or in the proportion of peope witnessing drunken anti-socia behaviour in town centres. Impact on eves of acoho-reated crime and disorder: the five case studies In the first year of the new icensing regime, overa probems of crime and disorder did not increase. In aggregate, the five case study sites show itte change. Overa, vioent crime fe by three per cent; this masked increases in three sites statisticay significant in ony one offset by fas in the other two sites. Cas to the poice reating to disorder either did not change or showed statisticay significant reductions with the eception of a significant increase in one site in the atter part of There is evidence of tempora dispacement: in four out of five sites there was a fa in eves of vioent crime between 11pm and midnight; and the sma proportion of vioent crimes occurring between 3am and 5am grew in the year after the change. Athough we cannot know for certain it seems ikey that this is a consequence of the etension of icensing hours. ii

4 Research Report 04 March 2008 The evauation assembed information either from hospita A&E departments or from ambuance services for the five case study sites. The data appear voatie, and trends are often inconsistent with those found in poice data. Trends were stabe in two sites and marginay upward in a further two. Reevant episodes at the A&E department in the fifth site doubed, however. Vioent crimes recorded by the poice in this site aso increased in 2006 though not as steepy as A&E incidents. Residents surveyed in three out of five case study sites were ess ikey to say that drunk and rowdy behaviour was a probem after the change than before it, and the majority in a five sites thought that acoho-reated crime was stabe or decining. Generay, peope working in the night-time economy and those invoved in its reguation generay thought that acoho-reated probems had remained stabe or decined. Concusion Whist some indicators point in different directions, the overa concusion to be drawn from the evauation is that in their first year the changes introduced by the 2003 Licensing Act had ony sma effects on the opening hours of most pubs and cubs, on eves of acoho consumption and on acoho-reated probems of crime and disorder. Some crime has been dispaced into the sma hours, but overa eves of crime associated with the night-time economy remain argey unchanged, and there has aso been a sma fa in serious crimes of vioence possiby as a consequence of the etension of icensing hours. How does our eperience match with other countries? The evidence from those countries that have moved from strict opening hours to a more reaed regime, such as Austraia, New Zeaand, Scotand and Iceand, is that iberaised regimes tend to resut in higher eves of consumption and more acoho-reated probems of crime and disorder. It may be that the scae of the change in Engand and Waes to date has been much smaer than in these jurisdictions. Equay, parae initiatives to promote sensibe drinking and to manage the night time economy may have counterbaanced pressures for heavier drinking and associated probems. It is aso possibe that marked effects of the change wi emerge ony over a onger period. iii

5 Research Report 04 The report Research Report 04 March 2008 The impact of the Licensing Act 2003 on eves of crime and disorder: an evauation Mike Hough, Giian Hunter, Jessica Jacobson, Stefano Cossater, ICPR, King s Coege London 1. Introduction The Licensing Act 2003 was introduced in November Responsibiity for the egisation fas to the Department for Cuture, Media and Sport (DCMS) where the topic is the responsibiity of the Licensing Minister. The DCMS had its own programme of monitoring and evauation, incuding a ministeria monitoring group and detaied eamination of the eperience of ten Scrutiny Councis 1. The Home Office roe reates argey to the probems of crime and disorder associated with acoho, and in 2005 the Home Office put into pace a programme for evauating the Act s impact on crime and disorder. This report presents the resuts of the Home Office evauation, covering the periods two years before and one year after the change. The Licensing Act Under the Act, each oca authority is required to pubish, every three years, a statement of icensing poicy, which must have regard to the Secretary of State s guidance on the Act and refect oca consutation with interested parties. Licensing functions are to be carried out by oca authorities with a view to promoting four icensing objectives: prevention of crime and disorder; pubic safety; prevention of pubic nuisance; and protection of chidren from harm. Thus the Act has an epicit preventive phiosophy embedded in its provisions. It simpified icensing aw by introducing a singe premises icence covering the provision of acoho, reguated entertainment and refreshments ate at night in pace of the si types of icence that previousy eisted. Cruciay, it repaced 1 See DCMS: monitoring_and_evauation/scrutiny_councis.htm statutory icensing hours with opening hours set ocay through the conditions of individua icences. It was this provision that gave rise to fears about 24-hour drinking, athough the aim was to iberaise a rigid system whist reducing the probems of rapid heavy drinking and disorder associated with a statutory cosing time. The intention of the Act was not simpy to rea drinking hours but to provide icensing authorities with new powers to dea with probematic icensed premises and to encourage coser partnerships between the range of authorities who tacke acoho-reated probems. Probems associated with pub cosing times had been a source of concern for many years. On the one hand, the simpe fact of a cosing time was thought to encourage some to drink as much as they coud whist they coud. On the other hand, standardised cosing times meant that arge numbers of - mainy young - peope in various states of drunkenness in towns and cities were decanted into open pubic space and onto pubic transport simutaneousy, an obvious recipe for acoho-fueed vioence and disorder. The epansion in the 1990s of night time economies had been encouraged by icensing and panning poicies (ODPM, 2004). From 2000, however, concerns were voiced within nationa and regiona government, by academics and the wider pubic about the negative repercussions of these deveopments. There was concern not ony about the disorder and vioence associated with high eves of acoho consumption by young peope but the emergence of city and town centre districts containing concentrations of (often arge-scae) entertainment venues, frequented predominanty by young customers. More feibe pub and cub cosing hours were intended to avoid the cosing time meées, discourage ecessive drinking and, in time, encourage a more reaed drinking cuture. Under the provision of the Act, the responsibiity for icensing was passed from magistrates courts to oca authorities. These new icensing authorities were epected to grant icences uness there were we-founded objections that doing so was inconsistent with the Act s four icensing objectives. The Act aso introduced a range of offences and sanctions to contro acoho- The views epressed in this report are those of the authors, not necessariy those of the Home Office (nor do they refect Government poicy). Research, Deveopment and Statistics improves poicy making, decision taking and practice in support of the Home Office purpose and aims, to provide the pubic and Pariament with information necessary for informed debate and to pubish information for future use. Crown copyright 2008 ISSN ISBN March

6 The impact of the Licensing Act 2003 on eves of crime and disorder: an evauation reated probems, incuding the power to pace conditions on icences to ensure that the four icensing objectives are met, the etension of poice powers to cose premises associated with noise and disorder and increased penaties for seing acoho to those aged under 18. There was a much greater emphasis on preventive strategies than hitherto, and an epectation that the new arrangements woud stimuate effective partnership work. The egisation aso gave a greater voice to the pubic: the powers of oca residents were enhanced to enabe them to ask for reviews of eisting icences and to have input into decisions on icensing appications. One important provision in the Act was the introduction of Cumuative Impact Poicies, whereby a oca authority, in consutation with others, can identify areas where a concentration of icensed premises is considered to be causing a cumuative impact on one or more of the icensing objectives. In such circumstances, where representations are made, the presumption is to refuse appications for new icences, or variations to eisting ones, uness the appicant can demonstrate that they do not add to the cumuative impact. The aim is to encourage a more mied and diverse night time economy by encouraging other types of businesses to open. Methods the British Crime Survey (BCS) Night Time Economy Modue: an additiona set of questions which were incuded in the 2004/05, 2005/06 and 2006/07 surveys, covering peope s eperience of, and attitudes to, the night time economy (referred to hereafter as the BCS NTE modue). The main BCS aso permits quite fine-grained anaysis of crime trends, broken down by time and ocation, athough it is too eary to mount anaysis of this sort in reation to the Act. A centra eement was a series of detaied case studies conducted in Birmingham, Backpoo, Croydon, Guidford and Nottingham (three of these are aso DCMS Scrutiny Councis). The five sites were thought to be sufficient in number to provide an overview of eperiences of the Licensing Act in different types of towns and cities facing different eves of vioent crime. The sampe was intended to be iustrative rather than nationay representative athough we have no reason to think that with regard to the impementation of and their eperience of the Act these areas were atypica. Work on the case studies was carried out by various independent researchers and by Home Office researchers, and incuded: detaied spatia and tempora anaysis of time-stamped recorded crime data, mounted by the Appied Criminoogy Centre, University of Huddersfied; The evauation had severa strands to it. Information about the nationa picture is drawn from severa sources, some of them aready pubished: post-impementation quaitative interviews with a imited number of representatives from icensed premises, mounted by the Appied Criminoogy Centre; most notaby a survey of 30 poice forces, covering vioent crime, disorder and crimina damage for the period from October 2004 unti November 2006 (Babb, 2007). This provides the most comprehensive anaysis of reevant statistics of recorded crime; anaysis of heath service data, mounted by the Appied Criminoogy Centre; before and after teephone surveys of residents carried out by the British Market Research Bureau (BMRB); a arge-scae survey of incidents of vioence as refected in A&E statistics conducted by the Vioence and Society Research Group at Cardiff University (Sivarajasingam et a., 2007); before and after in-depth quaitative interviews with icensees and representatives from other night time economy businesses which were ocated in the main night time economy areas, carried out by Cragg Ross Dawson; Department for Transport statistics on injuries and deaths caused by drunken driving; a Home Office teephone survey of poice icensing officers in 26 of the 43 poice forces in Engand and Waes si months after the impementation of the Act; before and after in-depth quaitative interviews by researchers from the Home Office with representatives from the responsibe authorities designated under the Act, the icensing authority, the Crime and Disorder Reduction Partnership (CDRP), the Drug and Acoho Action Team (DAAT) and the town centre manager; and a survey of oca authorities commissioned by the Acoho Education and Research Counci (AERC) (Foster et a., 2008); additiona data from poice and heath authorities assembed by Home Office researchers. the British Crime Survey (BCS), which is a nationa, argescae survey of victimisation, which provided information on ong-term trends in vioent crime; and We have drawn on various independent oca evauations. Two of these were conducted by Home Office Regiona Government Office researchers in the East of Engand and Yorkshire and the Humber regions (Pike et a., 2008). There have aso been anayses of oca heath authority data, and interview studies with oca authority and heath staff (e.g. Beis et a., 2006; Newton et a., 2007, London Ambuance Service, 2007). 2

7 Research Report 04 March 2008 Finay, the Home Office commissioned the Institute for Crimina Poicy Research (ICPR), King s Coege London to carry out a review of the reevant iterature on how to tacke acohoreated crime and manage the night time economy, and to pu together and summarise the findings of the various strands of the evauation. This report is the resut. We have drawn on a materia that appeared to be reevant, incuding work mounted independenty of government. Necessariy, this short report ony summarises the key findings. Tabes and charts reating to the case study areas are detaied in Appendi A and information about the evauation s methodoogy can be found in Appendi B, both of which can be found onine at horrpubs.htm There are aso reports which present detaied findings on each of the five case study areas (Jacobson et a., 2008, Newton et a., 2008a-d). In addition, there are further reports by the Appied Criminoogy Centre, University of Huddersfied which present detaied findings from the tempora and spatia anaysis of recorded crime data in each of the case study areas (Newton et a., 2008e-k, Newton and Hirschfied, 2008). Strengths and weaknesses of the evauation The evauation has both strengths and weaknesses. A significant strength is the range of information upon which it draws: nationa and oca surveys and both quantitative and quaitative data from the poice, oca authorities and heath authorities. The case studies offer sight-ines on the process from severa different vantage points, permitting a considerabe degree of trianguation in buiding an account of the Act s impact. The work conducted in the case studies was undertaken by a number of researchers from different organisations. This fina report, which pus together and makes sense of the findings, was produced by an independent team of researchers. passed, there woud have been a steady state covering the periods before and after the change. However, supporters of the egisation might argue that the Act has prevented the worsening of probems of crime and disorder. Equay, sceptics coud argue the Act has disrupted a decining trend. There is not much that can be done to address these probems, ecept to eamine the direction of ong-run trends surrounding the period of change and to see if cues can be geaned from variations between areas in the intensity with which the changes were put into pace. Finay, the evauation covers ony the short-term impact of the changes. Its overa message that there has been itte change does not rue out the possibiity that in the onger term there may be more marked changes whether maign or benign resuting from the overhau of icensing arrangements. Cutura change can happen at a sow pace, and patterns of drinking may evove in response to the new system over a ong period of time. The shape of this report Chapter 2 summarises what can be said about the eperience of impementation, and traces what can be said about the impact on icensing hours and, insofar as data are avaiabe, upon acoho consumption. Chapter 3 draws on a range of nationa or nearnationa statistics to assess the impact of the Act on the country as a whoe. Chapter 4 presents the findings from the case studies on acoho-reated crime and disorder. This chapter offers depth of anaysis but imited breadth of geographica coverage. Its findings are iustrative of the variation that occurs at a oca eve; the case studies in aggregate are not intended to be nationay representative. Chapter 5 discusses the eperience of other countries that have introduced simiar measures. Chapter 6 is more discursive, offering the researchers interpretation of the findings. In terms of weaknesses, the evauation is unabe to answer counterfactua questions about what woud have happened in the absence of any changes to the icensing aws. Impicit in the evauation is the assumption that if the Act had not been 3

8 The impact of the Licensing Act 2003 on eves of crime and disorder: an evauation 2 Impementation: impact on icensing hours and consumption This chapter draws argey on the findings of the five case study sites to describe the process of impementation, and the effects of the Act on opening hours and on acoho consumption. At the time of writing there was imited information on consumption for the year foowing the change. The impementation process in case study areas The case studies provide a detaied view of the changes to icensing from the perspective of peope working in the trade and those responsibe for its reguation. In-depth quaitative interviews with icensees and other business owners generay showed enthusiasm about the prospect of more feibiity (before the change) and satisfaction with the new arrangements (once introduced). According to these interviews, the Act was impemented against a backdrop of eisting oca and nationa initiatives designed to address probems associated with atenight drinking, incuding the foowing: the Best Bar None award scheme to encourage responsibe retaiing; Pubwatch schemes with the aim of achieving safer drinking environments; the introduction of a genteman s agreement among some icensees not to offer discounted drinks after 8pm on Friday and Saturday nights; the introduction in 2003 and 2004 of new poice powers for issuing Penaty Notices for Disorder (PNDs) or on the spot fines; the introduction of Security Industry Authority (SIA) accredited door supervisors in 2004 and 2005; and the Home Office-funded Acoho Misuse Enforcement Campaigns (AMECs), which incuded test purchase operations at on- and off-icences and increased use of penaty notices for disorder. Aso, in Nottingham the Home Office funded the Tacking Vioent Crime Programme (TVCP) which incuded poice enforcement operations. Home Office researchers conducted interviews in the case study areas before and after the changes with key representatives of Licensing Authorities (LA) and Responsibe Authorities (RA) (Poice, Fire, Trading Standards, Environmenta Heath, Socia Services, Panning) and the Crime and Disorder Reduction Partnerships (CDRPs) and Town Centre Managers. 2 The main points to emerge are as foows: 2 Interviews were conducted after impementation with icensing authorities, poice, CDRP and DAAT staff and the Town Centre Manager. most appications for new icences were submitted in the days immediatey before the deadine, and there were no etra resources to dea with the consequent spike in workoad; the quaity of the appication forms submitted was described as poor for smaer or independent premises and variabe for arger firms. For eampe, arge pub chains empoyed the services of soicitors to compete a their appications, thus imiting detai about specific oca circumstances; the submission process was overy compicated (appications had to be sent to the LA and each of the RAs) and the accompanying guidance was not aways cear; there was insufficient time to review appications and raise objections to Temporary Events Notices (TENS); 3 the Act was, however, considered to encourage joint agency working between the LA and RAs and to encourage better reationships with the acoho trade; the review process 4 was highighted as beneficia in a the case study areas, athough there was a cost for the LA attached to this process which had to be taken into account when deciding what reviews shoud be undertaken; the abiity for the RAs to add conditions onto premises icences to ensure the four icensing objectives were met (e.g. with regard to the prevention of crime and disorder icensing objective the poice coud request, for eampe: the use of door supervisors, providing notice to poice of use of etended hours, instaation of CCTV, or impose a fina time for entry into premises, such as 11pm) was perceived as a key advantage of the Act, and the LAs and RAs reported using these to tacke oca area probems; and overa, it was generay agreed that the Act had supported the effective management of the night time economy and the crime reduction initiatives that were aready in pace. Independent regiona or oca evauations invoving interviews with a range of stakehoders paint a simiar picture: teething probems foowed by recognition of the benefits of the new system (e.g. Greenaway and Handey, 2007; Moreo et a., 2007). For eampe, the shift in responsibiity for icensing decisions from magistrates to oca authority was regarded as being more efficient and as faciitating partnership working among the reevant oca agencies. However, the etent of participation in icensing meetings of potentiay interested parties was variabe; it was thought ikey to diminish further over time and there was aso some concern epressed about ecusion of stakehoders with 3 TENS are used to authorise sma-scae ad hoc events. The organiser must submit a notice and fee to the LA ten days in advance of the event. The ight touch procedure introduced by the Act repaced a much more forma appication process for temporary icences. 4 DCMS LA guidance archive_2007/guidancesection182_icact03june07.htm 4

9 Research Report 04 March 2008 an interest in heath and socia probems. The Scrutiny Councis 5 reported a number of positive deveopments since the Act, incuding the fact that residents were now more aware of their rights with regard to icensed premises and icensees more aware of their responsibiities and that the poice and other Responsibe Authorities have engaged we with the icensing process. 6 Foster et a. (2008) conducted a nationa survey of oca authority areas on behaf of the Acoho Education and Research Counci. 7 Whist this coected perceptions rather than factua data, it represents an important source of information about the impementation process. The survey paints a picture (unsurprisingy) of increased oca authority infuence over icensing decisions. However, respondents aso thought that other key stakehoders were now invoved in the process, notaby the poice and residents. A cear eception to this was the perceived ack of invovement of heath professionas. Ony a minority thought that icensing had become a party poitica issue. The same survey indicated that a cumuative impact area had been adopted by ony 17 per cent of oca authority areas, the majority of which were in urban areas and, unsurprisingy, they were created in response to concerns about crime and binge drinking. Opening hours The interviews with icensees and those invoved in the reguation of icences provide a cear sense of the way in which despite a great dea of media attention to the impending changes the process of moving to the new system was carried out very much at the ast minute. Many appicants made rapid decisions as the deadine oomed, which were informed neither by a cear idea of the strength of the demand for etended drinking hours nor by a sense of the practicabiity of keeping their estabishments open for onger. Fears about arge numbers of pubs being open 24 hours have not been met. According to a imited DCMS survey carried out shorty after the change, of the 200,000 premises icences in pace (incuding off-icences, hotes and supermarkets) ony 1.5 per cent had appied for 24-hour icences, of which around a fifth were for pubs and cubs. 8 A fifth of pubs, bars and cubs stuck with their od 11pm cosing time, and haf appied for an hour s etension to midnight. The remaining 30 per cent opted for a 1am cosing (DCMS, 2006). These times represented the atest that estabishments coud serve acoho. Some icensees eercised this right ony rarey and others used the etension as a winding down period. In November 2007, DCMS pubished more authoritative statistics, based on returns from 87 per cent of icensing authorities, and these show that ony 470 pubs, bars and nightcubs had 24-hour icences (DCMS, 2007). 5 A group of ten councis invited by DCMS to hep in monitoring the impact of the Licensing Act. 6 DCMS are panning a further survey of the Scrutiny Councis to assess progress two years after impementation. 7 Sity-three per cent of authorities participated, with information provided for the most part (74%) by heads of icensing teams or in some cases by chairs of icensing committees (23%). 8 The survey, which was sent to a Licensing Authorities in Engand and Waes, achieved ony a 28 per cent response rate, so its findings must be treated with caution. The DCMS commissioned further work from CGA Strategy Ltd, a consutancy which maintains a arge database on the operation of pubs, bars, cubs, restaurants and hotes. This work (CGA, 2007) found that on a typica Saturday night 56 per cent of onicensed premises continued to cose at 11pm and that most of the remainder had etended their opening by haf an hour or an hour. Pubs, bars and nightcubs stayed open for just under haf an hour on average; registered cubs stayed open for amost an hour onger, whist hotes and restaurants showed very itte change. Home Office researchers carried out a teephone survey of poice officers with responsibiity for icensing in 26 of the 43 poice force areas. The 27 respondents reported that the Act had resuted in the foowing main changes. 9 Most premises used the opportunity to etend their opening hours: 63 per cent of survey respondents reported that at east 70 per cent of premises in their area had appied to vary their hours, athough in some areas this was as ow as per cent, with the remainder of premises appying for straight conversions. The number of etra hours appied for was ow: the majority reported that pubs and cubs had generay appied for one or two etra hours of trading, with pubs now cosing between 12am and 1am and cubs cosing between 3am and 4am. Ony a minority of premises requested 24 hour icences: generay, it was reported that few on-icense premises had appied for or obtained 24-hour icences. Supermarkets were most frequenty reported as having appied for 24- hour icences, foowed by off-icences. Etra hours were not routiney used: the majority of respondents (87%) reported that premises were using their new hours at the weekend ony or for particuar occasions such as parties (26%), bank hoidays (22%) and sporting events (17%). This mirrors the situation in the five case study sites. For eampe, in a of the areas, it was reported that the premises that had been granted etensions were not using their additiona hours fuy. In four of the case study sites, around haf of a etra opening hours appied for were used (47% in Birmingham, 48% in Backpoo and Croydon and 55% in Guidford) and in one site (Nottingham) ony about a third of etended hours were used (34%). Looking specificay at the 15 icensed premises in town and city centres of each site with the worst probems of crime and disorder, these used ony haf of the additiona hours for which they appied. Post-impementation quaitative interviews with 105 icensees and other night time economy business owners in these sites found that amost a bars cosed ater at the weekend than they did before the Act, with a greater degree of staggering in most 9 There were two respondents in the Metropoitan Poice, making a tota of 27 respondents. The 26 forces accounted for about two-thirds of crime in Engand and Waes in 2005/06. 5

10 The impact of the Licensing Act 2003 on eves of crime and disorder: an evauation areas. However, cosing times during the week were invariaby earier with some premises cosing before their icensed hours if trade was poor. This genera pattern of business hours was aso reported in the interviews with LAs and RAs. The feibiity of cosing times was widey appreciated by the icensees: We can open ti 1am during the week if we wish to. But because the trade is not around, especiay midweek, we shut at 11pm. (Chain pub, Nottingham. Cragg, Ross, Dawson interviews.) Most respondents reported no great increase in trade or profits as a resut of etended opening hours, particuary when assessed against the additiona overheads required for staying open onger. They aso observed that customers tended to have a finite budget for acoho; they might stay out ater but this did not necessariy mean they woud buy more drinks over that period: What I see happening now is that peope start eaving at 1.30am, but now some peope stay and take a bit onger over their ast drink. I don t see a big upturn in my takings. (Chain pub, Birmingham. Cragg, Ross, Dawson interviews.) Peope have ony a certain toerance eve and aso they judge by their pockets; 20 to spend is 20 to spend. (Chain nightcub, Guidford. Cragg, Ross, Dawson interviews.) Impact on drinking behaviour and the night time economy Licensee and business respondents perceived some changes in the patterns of drinking as a resut of the Act. For eampe, there was a genera view amongst icensees that peope were going out ater; many reported that busy drinking periods started an hour or so ater than before the Act was impemented: I honesty think that peope are definitey coming out ater. They have one or two bottes of wine at home or a few drinks We ve noticed that peope used to come in at 8pm and now that has shifted towards 10pm. (Chain pub, Birmingham. Cragg, Ross, Dawson interviews.) When we had the 11pm icence, we woud be busy by 8pm, now we don t peak ti 9pm or 9.30pm. So now peope are tending to come out ater because they know they ve got that etra hour and a haf compared to what they used to have. (Chain pub, Croydon. Cragg, Ross, Dawson interviews.) It was aso noted that eaving the pub had become a more gradua process either because of a oca strategy of staggered cosing time or because few peope had the stamina or financia resources to take advantage of the etended opening hours: I think peope are eaving when they want to eave rather than being kicked out. We used to chuck the whoe bar out at 1am. (Chain pub, Guidford. Cragg, Ross, Dawson interviews.) Rather than at 2am having between 30 and 50 thousand peope thrown onto the streets, that now happens over maybe an hour and a haf between 1.30am and 3.30am. So obviousy the potentia for disorder is essened, which is better. (Chain nightcub, Birmingham. Cragg, Ross, Dawson interviews.) Respondents fet overa that there were fewer peope coming into town and city centres at night, possiby as a resut of oca pubs being open ater. In their view, these factors taken together meant reduced numbers out on the streets in the city centres at night: The ocas aren t going into town as much as they used to because the pubs on the periphery, that used to be the meeting point for peope going into Backpoo, now shut at 1am So obviousy oca peope are stopping ocay. (Tai company, Backpoo. Cragg, Ross, Dawson interviews.) Where peope on Friday night had to come into the city centres or up the high street to get a drink past 12am or 11pm, now they can drink ocay unti 1am. There is no rush anymore and no tai fare home so that saves them 20 or 30. (Chain nightcub, Birmingham. Cragg, Ross, Dawson interviews.) It was aso noted that dispersa was age-staggered, with younger customers more ikey to take advantage of the etended hours than oder customers: Peope my age [30s] woud probaby be used to going home about 2am, but the younger generation are used to staying out much ater, ti 3am or ater... (Chain pub, Birmingham. Cragg, Ross, Dawson interviews.) Consumption and participation in the night time economy There is some evidence about overa eves of acoho consumption since the introduction of the Act. The Genera Househod Survey (GHS), which incudes sef-report data on acoho consumption indicates a fa of si per cent in the average number of units of acoho consumed per week between 2005 and 2006 (Goddard, 2006). 10 Using the revised method of cacuating average units per week this fa just reaches statistica significance. 11 The British Beer and Pub Association (BBPA) statistics on the consumption of acoho in the United Kingdom as a whoe (BBPA, 2007a) provide estimates of overa 10 This fa is in ine with a sight annua decine shown in the GHS since Goddard (2006) suggests that this fa may be an artifact of the increase over this period in the size of pub measures of wine. The methodoogy for cacuating units has now been revised and the new methodoogy takes into account the increase in the size of the gass in which wine is served on icensed premises and the increase in the acohoic strengths of wines, beers, agers and ciders. However, the fa in units consumed between 2005 and 2006 is approaching si per cent according to both the od and new method (see Goddard, 2007, for a description of the new method and for 2005 figures cacuated according to this method). 11 Athough the fa is statisticay significant, it woud be unwise to attach a great dea of weight to a change over one year in average units consumed per week. A more robust anaysis is panned by the Office for Nationa Statistics (ONS), which wi eamine change over the time in the acoho consumption of the embedded pane of respondents who took part both in the 2005 and 2006 GHS. 6

11 Research Report 04 March 2008 consumption, based on HM Customs and Revenue statistics (derived from ecise duty returns). 12 These indicate that UK consumption fe by 3.3 per cent in This comes on top of a two per cent drop in Equivaent estimates for on-icence premises ony again show a peak in 2004, foowed by a 2.2 per cent fa in 2005 and a 3.8 per cent fa in There are indications that some peope now drink ater into the night as one woud epect given that some premises are staying open for onger. However, two YouGov surveys conducted for the BBPA have found itte behavioura change. In the first, conducted in November 2006, 85 per cent of respondents thought that the new provisions had not encouraged them to change their drinking patterns (BBPA, 2006). 14 The second, conducted a year ater (BBPA, 2007b), found a broady simiar picture, with 83 per cent saying that the change has not affected how often they go out. Four out of five respondents said they drank the same amount of acoho, 12 per cent said ess and three per cent more. 15 The BCS NTE modue shows that there has been no change in frequency of pub usage. For eampe, in 2006/07, 53 per cent of respondents aged 16 years and over had visited a pub or bar in the month prior to interview, representing no statisticay significant change from 2005/06 and a decrease from 54 per cent in 2004/05. Among the more reguar drinkers in the 16- to 30-year age group, the proportion reporting getting very drunk in the 2006/07 survey was not statisticay significanty different from the 2004/05 survey. There is evidence, however, of an 12 See for source data from HMR&C ContentType=40 14 The survey used internet quota samping methods using the YouGov pane, with a sampe of 2, The survey used the same methodoogy as in the previous year, with a sampe of 1,841. Response rates were under 50 per cent in both surveys. increase since the 2004/05 survey in the proportion of peope who visit town centres in the evenings. Most respondents in both survey periods fet safe when out in the city centre at night. Teephone surveys of residents in the five case study areas were carried out before and after the impementation of the Act. 16 Respondents reported few statisticay significant changes in behaviour after the introduction of the Licensing Act and some positive perceptions of the Act s impact on drinking patterns. There was no statisticay significant change in the percentage who had visited the city centre in the evening nor in the proportion of those who visited the city centre reguary. There were some changes in some of the areas regarding the times at which respondents reported eaving the city centre at nights. For eampe, in Guidford and Backpoo there was an increase in the proportion who reported eaving after midnight. The majority of respondents who had visited the city or town centre in the ast 12 months and who said they went to pubs, bars and cubs agreed that rapid drinking cose to ast orders had decreased since the introduction of the Licensing Act and ony a minority (between 7% and 16% across the sites) reported increasing their consumption of acoho on a typica night out since the introduction of the Act. When asked about their overa consumption of acoho, four out of five reported no change in their drinking behaviour; a sma minority reported increased drinking and a smaer minority reported a decrease. 16 Sampe sizes were 3,495 (pre) and 3,760 (post) across the five sites, with response rates respectivey of 45 per cent and 38 per cent. The fina sampes were weighted to improve representativeness. 7

12 The impact of the Licensing Act 2003 on eves of crime and disorder: an evauation 3. Acoho-reated crime and disorder: the nationa picture At the end of the chapter some reference is aso made to the growing number of regiona or oca evauations. Whist the case studies discussed in the net chapter can provide depth and teture about the impact of the Act on acoho-reated crime and disorder, these cannot provide a reiabe guide to eperience across the country as a whoe. For this, nationay representative statistics are needed. There is now a growing body of nationa or near-nationa information about the impact of the Act. As described in the introduction, this chapter draws on a range of sources: the survey of 30 poice forces (Babb, 2007); the survey of vioent incidents handed by A&E departments conducted by the Vioence and Society Research Group at Cardiff University (Sivarajasingam et a., 2007); department for Transport statistics on injuries and deaths caused by drunken driving; the Home Office survey of poice icensing officers; the survey of oca authorities commissioned by the AERC (Foster et a. (2008); and findings from the British Crime Survey (BCS). The 30-force survey The Home Office mounted this survey from ate 2005 onwards. Poice forces were asked to return time-stamped monthy recorded crime figures for the foowing offences: serious vioent offences; ess serious wounding; assaut without injury; harassment; and crimina damage (providing a proy indicator of acoho reated offences). 17 The survey covered 12-month periods before and after the introduction of the changes. In aggregate, across a times of day, there was a sight fa (of 1%) in these five categories of recorded crime in the 30 forces. There was a sight rise (of 1%) for offences occurring between 6pm and 6am. Figure 1 shows three-monthy trends over the twoyear period, breaking the night time period into four three-hour periods. Despite fuctuation in the number of recorded offences there is very itte change in offending rates prior to 3am. Offences occurred rarey between 3am and 6am, representing around three per cent of the tota prior to the change and four per cent of the tota post impementation of the Act; however, for this minority there was a step-change in December 2005, 17 Athough the sampe of 30 forces was sef-seecting, it incudes the three argest forces in the country and many of the smaer ones. Participating forces accounted for just under 75 per cent of recorded crime in the Engand and Waes. Figure 1: Number of offences in three-monthy periods by time of night 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 Numbers 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Dec 04 - Feb 05 Mar 05 - May 05 Jun 05 - Aug 05 Sep 05 - Nov 05 Dec 05 - Feb 06 Mar 06 - May 06 Jun 06 - Aug 06 Sep 06 - Nov 06 Three-month periods 6pm-8.59pm 9pm-11.59pm 12am-2.59am 3am-5.59am Source: Babb (2007) 8

13 Research Report 04 March 2008 numbers rose by 10,235 an increase of 22 per cent in the 12 months after the change. Murder, mansaughter and serious wounding One of the strengths of the survey is that it aows anaysis separatey of more and ess serious vioent offences. The more serious offences are generay more consistenty recorded, and are ess ikey to refect the impact of poicing activity. Thus one can interpret trends with more confidence. Trends within offence subgroups varied. Murder, mansaughter or serious wounding made up a sma minority (1%) of a vioent offences. This category of offences fe by five per cent (631 offences) over the evening and night time periods in the 12 months after the change. As with the totaity of vioent offences, however, there was an increase in the sma numbers occurring in the sma hours: between 3am and 6am, there was an increase of 236 offences, representing a 25 per cent rise. Less serious wounding and assauts with no injury The arger category of ess serious offences of wounding rose from November 2004 unti November 2005 and then fe; in absoute terms there were 8,719 fewer offences between 6am and 6pm, a fa of three per cent; the increase between 3am and 6am was 3,601, or a rise of 26 per cent. Daytime offences fe by eight per cent. Assauts with no injury fe consistenty from November 2004 unti May 2006, and then showed a shaow upturn. Harassment Offences of harassment showed a steady increase from November 2004 unti November 2005, and then pateaued. This pattern is ikey to refect the increased used by the poice of Penaty Notices for Disorder (PNDs) for incidents that woud previousy have been deat with in other ways. Looking specificay at harassment offences committed in the evening and night time, the upward trend continued after the icensing change: overa, evening and night time offences of harassment increased by 7,127, or seven per cent. Crimina damage For crimina damage offences the overa numbers fe by one per cent in the year after the change, from 832,000 to 826,000. Whie there were arger fas in the numbers of offences during the daytime, there was a two per cent increase across evening and night time hour periods. Within the night time period there was a 14 per cent increase (representing 3,400 cases) in the sma number of offences occurring between 3am and 6am. As with harassment, some of the increase in offences of crimina damage wi refect the increased use of PNDs. In summary, this important near-nationa set of evidence shows a ack of marked change overa in eves of crime. Looking specificay at the period between 6pm and 6am, recorded vioent crime invoving injury has faen and assaut without injury shows no change. Harassment offences rose very probaby refecting the greater poice use of new powers to issue PNDs and crimina damage showed a sma increase. In genera, offences committed in the evening or night show ess marked fas or marginay arger rises than offences committed in daytime. What increases there were tend to be concentrated in the sma hours. In other words, against a backdrop of very itte change, there appears to have been some tempora dispacement, pushing a sma proportion of offences forward into the sma hours. Athough we cannot know for certain it seems ikey that this is a consequence of the etension of icensing hours. The A&E survey This survey invoved a structured sampe of 33 A&E departments across Engand and Waes conducted by the Vioence and Society Research Group at Cardiff University (Sivarajasingam et a., 2007), and compared numbers of peope treated for injuries sustained through assaut in 2006 with the previous five years. The survey covered 44,000 attendances, around one in eight of the estimated nationa tota. 18 The survey found a two per cent fa in attendances in 2006, compared with The fa was concentrated amongst women where there was an eight per cent change. The trend for maes was fat. The report concuded that there is itte evidence to suggest that the 2003 Licensing Act had any significant effect on vioence-reated injuries in Engand and Waes (Sivarajasingam et a., 2007: p.6). These findings are consistent with a smaer study by Beis et a. (2006), though some individua A&E departments and ocaities have seen arge rises. For eampe, Newton et a. (2007) report a threefod increase in the number of night time acoho-reated attendances at a London hospita in March 2006 compared with the same month in The London Ambuance Service aso reports a two per cent increase in acoho-reated ca-outs in the first ten months foowing the changes in ine with a preeisting upward trend and a further ten per cent increase in the same ten month period from 24 November Department for Transport (DfT) statistics on injuries and deaths caused by drunken driving Provisiona DfT figures for show a four per cent fa from 2005 in the number of peope kied or seriousy injured in persona injury accidents invoving drink-driving. The number of deaths resuting from such accidents fe from 550 to 540 a fa of two per cent. The number of sight injuries arising from drink-drive accidents fe by seven per cent. It is impossibe to say whether these reductions can be attributed in any way to the Licensing Act, but these statistics constitute prima facie evidence that the changes have not caused a significant increase in such accidents. 18 The sampe was drawn from a subset of A&E departments that were committed to statistica work of this sort, and it may not be representative of the country as a whoe. However, a weighting procedure was used to improve representativeness in grossing up estimates to provide nationa figures pdf 9

14 The impact of the Licensing Act 2003 on eves of crime and disorder: an evauation The British Crime Survey The British Crime Survey (BCS) is considered a more reiabe measure of vioent crime than poice recorded crime, as it is not infuenced by changes in poice recording, pubic reporting and poice activity. Procedures for coating poice statistics were subject to unprecedented eves of change in the period from 1998 to 2004, though it is probabe that recording systems have been more stabe since then. 21 Unfortunatey, for the purposes of this evauation, the annua BCS reports cannot yet provide estimates of acoho-reated vioence for a fu year after November The 2005/06 interviews yied incidents that happened both before and after the icensing change, as do those conducted in 2006/ However, the most recent BCS quartery update can very neary provide an estimate of eves of vioent crime postimpementation, which can be compared with estimates for the equivaent period two years earier, which fuy pre-dated impementation. Interviews conducted between October 2004 and September 2005 count incidents occurring between October 2003 and August 2005 in other words, before the impementation date. These interviews yied an annua estimate of 2,395,000 vioent offences (Kara and Upson, 2006). Interviews conducted between October 2006 and September 2007 count incidents occurring between October 2005 and August 2007 in other words, very argey after the impementation date. These interviews yied an annua estimate of 2,328,000 vioent offences. Adding in snatch thefts, which were ecuded from this tota but incuded in estimates for earier years this post-impementation figure, 2,407,000, is around the same eve as the pre-impementation estimate, and the difference is not statisticay significant. These trends need to be seen in their broader contet. There has been an overa downward trend in vioent crime since 1995 (Nichoas et a., 2007). Vioence committed by strangers has shown a shaow decine since 1995; eves reported by 2006/07 respondents were sighty higher than in 2004/05 and 2005/06, but sighty ower than 2002/03 and 2003/04. Acquaintance vioence fe steepy between 1995 and the turn of the century, and has been fairy stabe since, but with a sma (non-significant) upturn in 2006/07. Domestic vioence shows simiar but ess pronounced trends. The proportion of victims of vioence who thought that their assaiant had been drinking has been stabe over the ast five years (yieding proportions of 45% for 2002/03 interviews, then 51%, 49%, 45% and 46% for successive years). 21 See 22 Respondents are interviewed about their eperiences of crime over the previous 12 months as we as the current month of interview: incidents in the fu 12-month period (ecuding the month of interview) are used to estimate victimisation rates. See BCS Technica Report Voume 1 for more detais: Shorty it wi be possibe to compare interviews competed in the 12 months up to the end of November 2005 with those competed in the 12 months up to 24 November 2007, providing cean pre-act and post-act periods. It shoud be aso possibe to anayse trends in incidents associated with pubs and cubs, and those associated with acoho. Perceptions of crime and disorder in the BCS Night Time Economy (NTE) modue According to the BCS NTE modue, there was aso no statisticay significant change, post impementation, in the proportion of peope feeing unsafe in town centres at night, or in the proportion of peope witnessing drunken anti-socia behaviour in town centres. As Figure 2 shows, ony a minority of respondents who went out to town centres in the evening fet unsafe when they did so. Combining men and women, 16 per cent said that they fet a bit or very unsafe in a three years. Figure 2: Proportion of peope feeing very or a bit unsafe in town centres at night Percentage /05 interviews 2005/06 interviews Men Women 2006/07 interviews Notes 1. Source: 2004/ /07 BCS Night Time Economy (NTE) modue. 2. Overa sampe sizes: 10,903 (2004/05), 11,870 (2005/06), 11,633 (2006/07). Resuts are based on respondents who had paid at east one visit to a town centre in the month prior to interview and indicated that they fet very or a bit unsafe: question sampe sizes = 734 (2004/05), 796 (2005/06), 785 (2006/07). 3. Weighted data. In a three sweeps the overa response rate was 75 per cent. Those reporting that they fet unsafe said they did so when there were a ot of drunken peope about (47%), when there were groups or gangs hanging about (38%) and when there were aggressive or threatening peope about (27%). Amost one in four respondents (26%) perceived peope being drunk and rowdy in pubic paces in their oca area to be a big or a fairy big probem. Many reported that noise or disturbance (66%), fighting between peope who are drunk (48%) and verba abuse (41%) were probems caused by drunk and rowdy peope in their oca areas. However, there were no statisticay significant changes since 2005/06. Simiary many respondents reported having seen cans and bottes (78%), fast food wrappers (75%) and broken bottes or gass being eft in the street or thrown into gardens (65%). But again, these findings are the same as for 2005/06. 10

15 Research Report 04 March 2008 The Home Office survey of poice icensing officers The survey of 27 poice icensing officers in 26 forces ends further support to the view that the Act had not had adverse effects on crime and disorder. Thirteen of the 27 said that the Act had had a positive effect on crime and disorder, and a further four said it had had no impact. Eight said it was too eary to say, or that the impact was mied. Ony one did not have a view, and ony one thought that the Act s impact had been argey negative. Severa reported that some offences were occurring ater, and some suggested that that there were now fewer true peaks in crime and disorder, with probems being spread eveny throughout the night and eary hours of the morning. Haf said that this had resuted in adjustments to shift systems, and others reported other ways of accommodating to the time-shift in workoads. Interviewees did not report any changes in the areas or ocations of acoho-reated crime and disorder foowing the introduction of the Act. The sampe is a sma one, of course, but it is the business of icensing officers to be informed about these issues, and some significance can be attached to their views. The Acoho Education Research Counci s survey of icensing authorities Regiona and oca evauations Regiona evauations have been mounted by Home Office researchers in the Government Office for Yorkshire and the Humber and in the Government Office for the East of Engand (Pike et a., 2008). Both studies drew on quantitative and quaitative sources and assessed the eary eperiences of the Act in terms of eves of crime and disorder si months post impementation. Both studies concuded that the change did not resut in increases in acoho-reated vioence, and suggested that the reason for this is to be found in the sma scae changes in opening hours which were actuay impemented. Consistent with the Home Office 30-force survey and the case study sites, evidence of tempora dispacement was found, with incidents more ikey to occur around the new cosing times, and there was some evidence of a fattening of peaks of vioence. The study in the East of Engand focussed on si market towns, where eperience was quite variabe. The growth in vioence in one town was judged to be unreated to the Act s provisions, however. The findings are broady consistent with those of Greenaway and Handey (2007) reating to three oca authorities within this region. Simiar findings are reported in an evauation of the Act s impact in Lancashire carried out by Liverpoo John Moores University (Moreo et a., 2007). The Acoho Education Research Counci (AERC) survey by Foster et a. (2008) asked key informants in oca authorities about the impact of the Act on severa dimensions. Haf of respondents thought that the number of icensed premises had increased, and the genera perception was that poice activity had increased. But on a range of dimensions, the majority thought that there had been no change in probems associated with icensed premises. Thus 68 per cent thought that acoho-reated crime had remained unchanged, 19 per cent thought it had faen and 13 per cent thought it had risen. Sity per cent thought that numbers of acoho-reated fights were unchanged, 27 per cent thought there had been a decrease and 13 per cent a rise. Fiftynine per cent thought that noise eves were unchanged, nine per cent thought there had been an increase and 32 per cent a fa. Whist the survey was asking about perceptions, the respondents were we paced to provide an informed view on these issues. 11

16 The impact of the Licensing Act 2003 on eves of crime and disorder: an evauation 4. Acoho-reated crime and disorder: the case studies The five case studies comprise an important part of the evauation. Whist their findings on acoho-reated crime and disorder are iustrative rather than nationay representative, they have sufficient depth and teture to aow fairy reiabe judgements to be made about the Act s impact in these areas. They were seected to represent a mi of towns and cities that had significant ate-night economies with different eves of reported vioent crime and different partnership arrangements. 23 A very arge amount of information was drawn together for the case study sites, incuding poice data on recorded crimes and incidents, statistics on the use of heath emergency services, survey data on residents perceptions and quaitative data from icensees, icensing and responsibe authorities and others invoved in reevant businesses. As wi emerge, there were variations in the eperience of the five sites. In genera, however, there was not a great dea of change, and where there was change, it was usuay on a sma scae. The headine findings are that across the five sites, recorded vioent crime fe by three per cent; cas to the poice reating to disorder either did not change or showed statisticay significant reductions with one eception. There is evidence of tempora dispacement, in that the sma number of incidents of crime and disorder occurring in the sma hours grew. This overa picture is highy consistent with the concusions that can be drawn from the nationa statistics presented in the previous chapter. This chapter offers a summary of the key findings as they reate to crime and disorder. Figure 3 gives an overa favour of the resuts. The areas are not intended to be nationay representative but are probaby a reasonabe refection of simiar paces across the country at a gance one can see that patterns of eperience were variabe. Coumn 2 of Figure 3 summarises findings from the previous chapter about the impact of the Act on icensing hours, and Coumn 3 records whether the oca authority s icensing poicy incuded a saturation zone or a poicy on cumuative impact. The other seven coumns are concerned with the impact on crime and disorder. The figure necessariy does some injustice to the compeity of the findings, but the rest of the chapter presents a fuer picture. Vioent crime Across the five sites, tota recorded vioent crime 24 fe by three 23 An additiona seection criterion was that there had to be sufficient cases for anaysis and this imited the choice of areas. In particuar it rued out the possibiity of incuding any truy rura areas. 24 Vioent crime is used as a shorthand to refer to a offences cassified by the Home Office as vioence against the person. For detais see homeoffice.gov.uk/rds/countrues.htm. Interpreting statistics of vioent crimes recorded by the poice is not straightforward. Rues for recording such offences were substantiay revised in 1998 and again in The changes may sti have been bedding in over the period covered by the evauation. Moreover, poice powers for deaing with vioent offences have been etended, for eampe through powers to issue PNDs, and the avaiabiity per cent in the 12 months after the change. The fa was more marked during the week (4%) than for weekends (1%), when interview data suggest that icensed premises were more ikey to cose ater. There were variations between sites: Croydon and Backpoo saw fas of 13 per cent and 10 per cent respectivey. Guidford, Birmingham and Nottingham saw increases of 12 per cent, seven per cent and three per cent. There was ony one statisticay significant rise in vioence for Guidford, in the first si months after the change 25. The other changes were either not statisticay significant, or ese were statisticay significant fas. Monthy figures for vioent crime showed considerabe fuctuations both before and after the change in icensing hours. In Backpoo and Guidford, and to a esser etent in Nottingham, reductions in vioence coincided with Acoho Misuse Enforcement Campaigns (AMECs) 26. These might have been responsibe for the fas but equay they coud have resuted in the recording of offences that woud otherwise have escaped poice attention. In Nottingham and Backpoo, vioence increased during the Footba Word Cup (June to Juy 2006), but we cannot say whether the atter caused the former. Incidents of recorded vioence were concentrated in a five sites around a sma number of pubs and cubs. In Guidford and Backpoo, the 15 premises with the highest crime accounted for between 65 per cent and 79 per cent of recorded vioence against the person offences after impementation 27. The timing of vioence shifted forward in four out of the five case study areas. The number of offences in a of the areas grew between 3am and 5am, ecept for in Croydon. The proportionate increase in these areas was arge, but the absoute increase was sma just over 300 recorded offences in tota. Figure 4 iustrates this, showing trends for recorded vioence in Birmingham (the corresponding charts for the other areas are of these powers may resut in the recording of offences which previousy woud have been deat with informay. Finay, over the period covered by the evauation the poice were encouraged to mount AMECs and in one case study area a Tacking Vioent Crime Programme (TVCP) which may simutaneousy have depressed offending and stimuated the recording of offences. 25 Over this period Surrey Poice overhaued their crime reporting and recording procedures, in a way they thought woud have the effect of eaggerating any increase in recorded vioent crime. See technica Appendi B for detais about the statistica tests which were conducted. 26 The Home Office ran a series of targeted AMECs, which incuded test purchase operations at on- and off-icences and increased use of penaty notices for disorder across Engand and Waes. These campaigns aso identified what works in terms of preventing acoho-fueed vioence and reguating probem icensed premises. See operationa-poicing/crime-disorder/acoho-misuse AMECs were conducted in Birmingham over the foowing period: Juy to August 2004, December 2004 to January 2005, November 2005 to January 2006 and May to June In Backpoo they were conducted in: Juy to August 2004, December 2004 to February 2005, November 2005 to January 2006 and May to June In Croydon they were conducted in: Juy to September 2004, January to February 2005, November to January 2006 and May to June In Guidford they were conducted in: June to August 2004, December to January 2005, November 2005 to January 2006 and May to June In Nottingham they were conducted in: Juy to September 2004, January to February 2005, November 2005 to January 2006, November 2005 to January 2006, May to June 2006 and Juy to September Aso in Nottingham a Tacking Vioent Crime Programme (TVCP) was impemented in May 2005 and ran for a number of weeks. 27 Defined as the top 15 icensed premises in each case study site, ranked for recorded vioence against the person eves. 12

17 Research Report 04 March 2008 Figure 3 Summary of eperience in case study sites Case study site Impact on icensing hours Saturation/ cumuative impact zone poicy Recorded vioent crime Recorded crimina damage Cas for disorder A&E data and ambuance ca out data Residents views of drunk and rowdy behaviour Reguators perceptions of probems: up or down? Perceptions of those in the trade: probems up or down? Birmingham Sma * * Backpoo Sma Croydon Sma * Guidford Sma * * * Nottingham Sma * * Notes: 1. = worsening probem after change. = reducing probem. = no change. or = mied. Large symbos mean a arge change occured and arge symbos with a * symbo means the change was statisticay significant (where statistica tests were performed, in coumns 4, 5, 6, and 8. See Technica Appendi B for detais about these statistica tests that were conducted.) 2. Residents views = proportion of residents saying that drunk and rowdy behaviour was a very or fairy big probem in the city centre. Source: BMRB pre and post teephone survey among residents in the five case study areas. 3. Coumns 9 and 10 are (inevitaby subjective) summaries of views of icensing authorities and responsibe authorities, and of those working in the trade, as epressed in quaitative interviews. 13

18 The impact of the Licensing Act 2003 on eves of crime and disorder: an evauation incuded in Appendi A). The evidence for tempora dispacement was stronger when anaysis was restricted to vioence occurring within 50 metres of any icensed premises, suggesting an association with changes to icensing hours. The changes were generay most marked during the weekends again suggesting a strong reationship with the icensing hours introduced by the Act. One of the rationaes for iberaising the icensing aws was that the spike of incidents immediatey after cosing time woud be fattened out. This happened in Backpoo and Birmingham, but there was no change in Croydon and Nottingham. In Guidford the ony site to record a statisticay significant increase in recorded vioence the peak moved forward in time into the sma hours. In a five case study areas, the concentration of vioence increased among high-crime icensed premises 28 that actuay used si or more additiona hours per week, but decreased amongst the remainder. This pattern of findings was not found when eamining hours appied for. Data on ambuance ca-outs and A&E attendance were assembed for each case study site. These provide a suppementary source of information about vioent crime and other acoho-reated probems. The poice statistics capture a arger proportion of vioent incidents than heath statistics on assauts, but the ratio varied between sites suggesting considerabe variation in recording practices amongst heath services (cf Patton et a., ). Trends for heath data on assauts were often the reverse of those found in poice records for vioence. In Guidford, poice statistics for vioence against 28 Defined as the top 15 icensed premises in each case study site, ranked for recorded vioence against the person eves. 29 This study found ow and variabe eves of screening for acoho consumption and acoho probems. The cear impication is that recording practice in fagging acoho-reated incidents wi aso be variabe. the person rose by 12 per cent whist heath figures for assauts fe by 34 per cent. In Backpoo, poice figures fe by 10 per cent whist heath figures rose by 18 per cent. Ony in Croydon and in Nottingham were the trajectories in the same direction. One possibe epanation, suggested by Sivarajasingam et a. (2007), is that effective and eary intervention by the poice can actuay reduce ater demands paced on heath services. Further research may be necessary to disentange these reationships. Crimina damage The case studies incuded anaysis of poice statistics of crimina damage (or vandaism). There were concerns that this offence woud aso rise foowing the iberaisation of opening hours. Patterns of crinina damage were varied. Figures fe in Nottingham and Backpoo. They remained argey unchanged in Birmingham, Croydon and Guidford. The ony statisticay significant change was the fa in Nottingham foowing a statisticay significant increase in the previous 12 months. Changes in the timing of crimina damage were sma, and those changes that did occur often took pace at times and in ocations that one woud not epect to be infuenced by the changes in the operating hours of icensed premises. Overa, the evidence is strong that vandaism was unaffected by the Act. Disorder cas for service Data on cas for poice assistance reating to disorder were anaysed for the periods before and after the change. Apart from a statisticay significant increase in disorder in Guidford in the atter haf of the year foowing the changes, there were no other statisticay significant increases in cas for disorder. Figure 4 Percentage of recorded vioent crime by time of day in Birmingham City Centre Percentage of offences Average baseine Post impementation Average baseine trend Post impementation trend Time range 14

19 Research Report 04 March 2008 In Birmingham, significant reductions in disorder preceded the introduction of the Act and continued into the first haf of the post impementation year. Overa, disorder cas fe by one-fifth in Birmingham between the baseine and post impementation period. In Croydon, significant reductions eading up to the Act were not sustained post impementation. In Backpoo and in Nottingham there was no statisticay significant change either during the baseine period or beyond. Disorder cas for service overa generay peaked earier in the evening than incidents of vioence, both before and after the change. For eampe, in Backpoo they peaked between 9pm and 10pm and in Croydon and in Nottingham between 8pm and 9pm. There was no indication of tempora dispacement foowing the change, with the eception of Guidford. Residents perceptions The residents teephone surveys asked whether peope considered drunk and rowdy behaviour to be a probem in the city or town centre. Figure 5 shows that in three out of the five sites, there was a statisticay significant fa in the proportion thinking that it was a fairy or very big probem. These findings are puzzing given the evidence that acoho-reated probems had actuay changed very itte. Residents were aso asked in the post-impementation surveys whether the amount of crime caused by peope who have been drinking had increased, decreased or stayed the same after the impementation of the Act. The majority in a five sites thought that it was stabe or faing, though sizeabe minorities thought it had increased: 43 per cent in Birmingham, 39 per cent in Backpoo, 38 per cent in Croydon, 28 per cent in Guidford and 29 per cent in Nottingham. 30 The findings from the teephone survey, on the whoe, do not match the findings from the recorded crime data and it is possibe that in the run-up to the change media coverage had sensitised peope to the issue athough fiedwork in the before period was conducted we before impementation. Views of professionas and those in the trade Quaitative interviews with those in the trade, icensing authorities and responsibe authorities generay show a ack of change. Numbers of interviews were sma, and it shoud be recognised that both those working in the ate-night economy and those invoved in its reguation have a vested interest in presenting a positive picture. Nevertheess, on the whoe, the findings suggest that both groups generay thought that acohoreated probems had remained stabe or decined. For eampe: Figure 5: Drunk and rowdy behaviour as a fairy or very big probem in the city/town centre before and after the impementation of the Act Percentage Birmingham Backpoo Croydon Before After Guidford Nottingham Notes 1. Source: BMRB residents teephone surveys. 2. Achieved overa sampe sizes per site ranged from 649 to Question: Thinking about peope being drunk and rowdy in and around (name of area) (town / city centre). How much of a probem woud you say this is at the moment? 4. Before and after differences are statisticay significant in Birmingham, Guidford and Nottingham. Rather than at 2am having between 30 and 50 thousand peope thrown onto the streets, that now happens over maybe an hour and a haf between 1.30 and 3.30am. So obviousy the potentia for disorder is essened, which is better. (Chain cub, Birmingham. Cragg Ross Dawson interviews.) Whie, there was a sense that concerns about the potentia negative impact of the Act had not been reaised, there was aso caution about confirming any positive or neutra effects too eary: I think ast year I woud have said, Don t do 24-hour drinking, but I have been proved wrong on that one. I think, et it run its course for the net two years and see how it is working then. You have to give these things time to work and peope s attitudes to change and so I woud eave it another two years and then have a ook. (Chain restaurant, Backpoo. Cragg, Ross, Dawson interviews.) The quaitative interviews conducted by Home Office researchers of icensing authority staff and those from responsibe authorities were fairy consistent: most respondents described probems of crime and disorder associated with the night time economy as stabe or decining. However, severa suggested that this trend was independent of the changes introduced by the Act. 30 Trends in perceptions are better measured by repeating the same question at two different points in time than by asking peope directy what they beieve the trend to be after the change has occurred. 15

20 The impact of the Licensing Act 2003 on eves of crime and disorder: an evauation 5. How does our eperience match with other countries? The evidence from those countries that have moved from strict opening hours to a more reaed regime, such as Austraia, New Zeaand, Scotand, Ireand and Iceand, is that iberaised regimes tend to resut in higher eves of consumption and more acoho-reated probems of crime and disorder. It may be that the scae of the change in icensing hours in Engand and Waes to date has been much smaer than in these jurisdictions or has been accompanied by measures designed to hep manage the night time economy and counterbaance increased avaiabiity of acoho. It is aso possibe that marked effects of the change wi emerge ony over a onger period of time. Internationa studies have been presented by critics of the Licensing Act as confirmation that onger opening hours wi in fact increase drunkenness, ecessive drinking and reated disorders (Hadfied, 2007; Hayward and Hobbs, 2007; Pant and Pant, 2005; IAS, 2005). Comparisons obviousy need to be made with caution, in that different evauations have used different methods. In Iceand, permitted hours for seing acoho were aboished between 1999 and During that time the tota number of admissions to A&E increased, with a 34 per cent rise in acoho-reated vioence. Drink-driving was estimated to have risen by 80 per cent. On the positive side, the eperiment reduced the numbers of peope on the streets in the eary hours of the morning. However, in 2001 fied cosing times were re-introduced (Ragnarsdottir et a., 2003). Coser to home, the eperience in Scotand and the Repubic of Ireand are noted as deterrents against iberaising the icensing aw. In Scotand, avaiabe data show higher rates of heavy drinking than in Engand, a rise in acoho-reated injuries and offences associated with acoho misuse and a substantia rise in the rate of acoho dependence and reated iver disease (Emers, 2003; Pant, 2004; IAS, 2005). However, Scotand has aso been cited as an eampe of dereguation that did not resut in a dramatic increase in crime, athough as Foster (2003) has noted, this initia change in 1976 coincided with severe economic recession in the country and cannot be taken as an indication of successfu poicy (Foster, 2003; IAS, 2005). For eampe, in Austraia, often ikened to the UK in terms of drinking cuture, a reaation of contros ed to a rise in acoho consumption and a significant increase in assauts in or near pubs with etended trading hours (Chikritzhs et a., 2000; Chikritzhs and Stockwe, 2002). In addition, peak times for road traffic accidents changed in ine with the atered icensing times (Smith, 1988). Overa, it was argued that ate-night opening of icensed premises deayed acoho-reated vioence, road crashes and other accidents unti after midnight when poice and emergency services were ess abe to cope with the demand (Chikritzhs and Stockwe, 2002). In 2007 demands were made for an end to 24-hour icensing. In New Zeaand, since 1989 the aw has permitted 24- hour opening. An evauation of the impact of the Liquor Act found that ate-cosing premises were most ikey to require poice intervention, to attract migrating drinkers and to be associated with increased street disorder. A rise in ecessive drinking among teenagers in New Zeaand was party attributed to icensing iberaisation and the poice reported more arrests of drink-drivers in the eary hours of the morning foowing etended icensing times (IAS, 2005). In Ireand, an increase in ate night disorder and vioence was attributed to the etension of icensing hours, introduced in The Irish Government has recenty reduced trading hours in response to these concerns (Pant and Pant, 2005; IAS, 2005). Concusion The eperience in Engand and Waes, at east in the first year of impementation, seems at odds with that of other countries which have made simiar changes to their icensing arrangements. This may refect the fact that changes esewhere had a more significant impact on the avaiabiity of acoho. Equay, the changes esewhere may not have been accompanied by counterbaancing preventative measures. 16

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