Photovoltaic Industry Technologies, Markets & Trends

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1 Photovoltaic Industry Technologies, Markets & Trends AIAA Los Angeles Enterprise Chapter Joel Davidson Solutions in Solar Electricity

2 Presentation Outline The Big Picture Brief History of PV Solar Array Types System Design System Installation Economics Technology Trends Market Trends

3 The Big Picture = More Demand Global Electricity Consumption 17 Trillion Watt-hours (17 x ) 17,000,000,000,000 Watt-hours ~19% just for electric lights 100 Watt light bulb x 10 hours = 1,000 Watt-hours (1 kwh)

4

5 PHOTOVOLTAIC PHOTO = Photon is a unit of light energy VOLTAIC = Voltage is electromotive force PV solar cells produce reliable electric power without consuming or emitting anything

6 Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic. Arthur C. Clarke

7 PV Cell Types Crystalline Silicon 14% to >20% efficiency Single Crystal Si Multi-Crystalline Si Amorphous Silicon 6% to 8% efficiency Cadmium Telluride 10% to 14% efficiency CIGS 10% up to 20% efficiency Copper - Indium - Gallium - Sulfide

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9

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11 Off-Grid PV System with Batteries

12 On-Grid PV System with Batteries

13 On-Grid PV System without Batteries

14 PV in the 1950s from the laboratory

15 ...to PV in space

16 ...to terrestrial off-grid PV systems

17 PV in the 1980s to central power plants 1 MW PV Power Field Sacramento, CA

18 PV in the 21st century 345 kw...to Building Integrated PV 167 kw 140 kw

19 PV in the 21st century 34 MW...to the return of central power plants 20 MW 20 MW

20 1 Megawatt (MW) = 1,000,000 Watts 1 MW Area = ~6 Acres (6 football fields) Energy for ~200 Homes

21 28.4 GW 1,000 MW = 1 Gigawatt (GW) = Energy for 200,000 Homes >40 MW INSTALLED EVERY DAY! 16.1 GW 14.8 GW 19.9 GW 7.9 GW 5.4 GW 2.5 GW 3.7 GW in MW 1.7 GW 1.19 GW

22 16.1 GW

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24 2010 Top Solar Cell Producers

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29 John O. Blackburn, PhD Professor Emeritus of Economics and former Chancellor, Duke University

30 PV on only 7% of the 140 million acres covered by US cities and residences - on roofs, parking lots, along highway walls and the sides of building - could supply the nation s total electrical energy requirement.

31 Caribou, ME 1550 KWH/m 2 Nebraska ~1800 KWH/m 2 Madison, WI 1600 KWH/m 2 Boulder, CO 1900 KWH/m 2 Phoenix, AZ 2100 KWH/m 2 Photovoltaics Sources: K. Zweibel, PV Past the Tipping Point ( PVWATTS Calculator, Version 1 ( Note: Munich, Germany ~1100 KWH/m 2

32

33 US PV installations in 2010 = GW Germany PV installations in 2010 = 7.25 GW

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35

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37 The switch to solar is happening faster 1.6 MW Mountain View, California

38 Types of PV Arrays Rack Flat Shade structures Building Integrated BIPV Solar Array Utility Grid DC Switch Inverter kwh Meter AC Switch

39 Rack solar arrays 10 kw Residence La Canada

40 Rack solar arrays 10 kw Residence La Canada

41 Rack solar arrays 4 kw Residence Santa Monica

42 Rack solar arrays 100 kw Helms Building Culver City

43 Flat solar arrays 200 kw Neutrogena Factory Los Angeles

44 Flat solar arrays 100 kw Convention Center Anaheim

45 Solar shade structures 22 kw Electric Utility Colton

46 Solar shade structures 30 kw Civic Center Santa Monica

47 Solar shade structures 20 kw Helms Building Culver City

48 Solar shade structures 750 kw U.S. Naval Base San Diego

49 Building Integrated PV 800 Watts Office Glendale (1984)

50 Building Integrated PV 100 kw Frito Lay Warehouse Torrance

51 Building Integrated PV 362 kw Coca Cola Los Angeles

52 Building Integrated PV 100 kw Elementary School San Diego

53 Building Integrated PV Conde Nast Building Manhattan NY

54 Building Integrated PV Solar Home Eureka California

55 Fun PV Solar Powered Ferris Wheel Santa Monica

56 PV & Wind Power Anderson s General Store Guemes Island, Washington

57 Marin County California Off Grid PV & Wind Power

58 Roughing it in an off-grid PV cabin

59 PV Power System Design Match Your kwh Solar Production to Your Consumption 2. Solar Array Sq Ft to Your Roof or Ground Space 3. PV System Price to Your Budget Use Energy Conservation & Efficiency

60 PV Power System Design PV Modules or Panels Mounting Structure or BIPV DC-to-AC Inverter Wiring & Equipment NEC Article 690 Net Metering Utility Shameless Plug

61 Power System Design Is your power source in balance with your load?

62 PV System Design What are Sun Hours? INSOLATION Average Daily Solar Input kwh/m 2 /day Los Angeles Sun Hours 5.5 kwh/m 2 /day at 34 0 tilt (latitude) 4.4 kwh/m 2 /day at 0 0 tilt 0 0 flat

63 PV System Design kw DC STC x 65% to 82% = kw AC x 4.4 to 5.5 Sun Hours for L.A. = kwh/day 4 kw DC x 80% = 3.2 kw AC x 5 Sun Hours = 16 kwh/day PV Power ranges from 3 to 14 W AC/sq ft (depends on light-to-electricity conversion efficiency) PV Prices range from $6 to >$9 per Watt AC (depends on system size and complexity)

64 PV System Design Determine how much solar you want or need Electric bill kwh 30 days = kwh/day kwh/day 5 Sun Hours = PV kw AC needed PV kw x $9/W AC = ~PV System Price 1 kw PV Array = ~110 Sq Ft

65 PV System Design Confirm PV System Size with PVWATTS at Enter: PV kw needed 0.8 derate factor roof tilt roof azimuth Confirm PV kwh = electric bill kwh

66

67

68 Typical PV Installation Installing roof jacks

69 Roof jacks - unistrut mounting rails - new shingles

70 Lifting pre-assembled 4-module panels

71 Putting panels in place

72 Connecting panels to homerun wiring installed in attic

73 Installing inverter, DC & AC disconnect switches & kwh meter

74 2.1 kw inverter, DC & AC disconnect switches & kwh meter

75 2007 solar array watt solar modules 1998 solar array in background watt solar modules

76 20 x 75 watts = 1.5 kw 82% DC-AC eff. = 1.23 kw AC 1.23 kw x 5 Sun Hours = 6.15 kwh/day = 2,244 kwh/year

77 PV - THE SOLID-STATE POWER PLANT PV needs very little maintenance

78 PV Incentives Residential Rebate Commercial Incentives 30% Federal Tax Credit State Property Tax Exempt 5 Yr Federal Accelerated Depreciation

79 PV Economics $ PV System Price -$ Minus Buydown Rebate -$ Minus 30% Federal Tax Credit -$ Minus 5-year Accelerated Depreciation (for commercial PV systems) -$ Minus Value of Electricity Generated $ Bottom Line PV System Price

80 4.2 kw DC Residential PV in LADWP Territory watt PV Modules $14, kw Inverter 2,900 1 Balance of System Components 4,600 Materials Subtotal 22,000 Sales Tax 2,145 Labor 3,900 Total 28,045 LADWP Rebate -6,887 Net Price $21,158 30% Federal Tax Credit -6,347 Balance $14,811 Annual Energy Production = 6,324 kwh Annual Energy $0.12/kWh = $758 Annual Energy $0.18/kWh = $1,138

81 4.2 kw DC Residential PV in SCE Territory watt PV Modules $14, kw Inverter 2,900 1 Balance of System Components 4,600 Materials Subtotal 22,000 Sales Tax 2,145 Labor 3,900 Total 28,045 SCE Rebate -4,008 Net Price $24,037 30% Federal Tax Credit -7,211 Balance $16,826 Annual Energy Production = 6,324 kwh Annual Energy $0.25/kWh = $1,581 Annual Energy $0.34/kWh = $2,150

82 250 kw DC Commercial PV SCE Economics 1, watt PV Modules $479, kw Inverter 120,000 1 Balance of System Components 401,500 Materials Subtotal 1,001,000 Sales Tax 97,598 Labor 267,000 Total 1,365,598 30% Federal Tax Credit -409,680 Federal & State Depreciation -533,250 California Solar Initiative -91, Year Cumulative Cashflow $331,233 Internal Rate of Return 11.8% Energy Production 369,414 kwh/year 20-Year Energy $0.12/kWh = $1,130,680

83 Why PV? Turn your business expense into an income generating asset Reduce your operating costs Hedge against electricity inflation Return on investment Increase property value & property tax exempt Energy self-reliance Position yourself and your company as an environmental leader Make the world a better place

84 Another reason...pv power for your next car

85

86 On-grid PV Off-grid PV Utility scale PV PV Neighborhoods 24/7 solar power is possible The Genesis Project - a global solar electric power grid

87 Colorado 8.22 MW Nevada 10 MW Examples of new large scale PV installations Nevada 14.2 MW New Jersey 2.2 MW

88 Texas 16 MW California 21 MW Florida 25 MW

89 Sears Tower 2 MW BIPV = 10 acres solar power field

90 Thank you Rising tides?

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