REPORT ON RESULTS OF THE COMMERCIAL BANK SENIOR LOAN OFFICERS OPINION SURVEY ON CREDIT MARKET CONDITIONS IN THE ECCU (JULY TO DECEMBER 2012)

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1 REPORT ON RESULTS OF THE COMMERCIAL BANK SENIOR LOAN OFFICERS OPINION SURVEY ON CREDIT MARKET CONDITIONS IN THE ECCU (JULY TO DECEMBER 2012) EASTERN CARIBBEAN CENTRAL BANK ST KITTS

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3 TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY INTRODUCTION RESULTS OF THE SURVEY LENDING TO BUSINESSES LENDING TO HOUSEHOLDS OTHER ISSUES CONCLUSION APPENDIX I: NET PERCENTAGE INDICATOR... I APPENDIX II: SURVEY RESULTS... I APPENDIX III: SURVEY QUESTIONS... VI i

4 LIST OF GRAPHS Graph 1 - ECCU Overall Lending Terms and Conditions for Business Loans... 4 Graph 2 - Overall lending Terms and Conditions for Business Loans by Territory... 4 Graph 3 - Outlook for Lending Terms and Conditions for Business Loans... 5 Graph 4 - ECCU Demand for Business Loans... 6 Graph 5 - Demand for Business Loans by Territory... 7 Graph 6 - Outlook for Demand for Business Loans (January to June 2013)... 8 Graph 7 ECCU Overall Lending Terms and Conditions for Household Loans... 9 Graph 8 - Overall Lending Terms and Conditions for Household Loans by Territory. 10 Graph 9 - Outlook for Lending Terms and Conditions for Household Loans Graph 10 - ECCU Demand for Household Loans Graph 11 - Demand for Household Loans by Territory Graph 12 - Outlook for Demand for Household Loans (January to June 2013) LIST OF TABLES Table 1 - Response Rates... 3 Table 2 - Overall Conditions of Lending to Businesses... I Table 3 - Demand for Business Loans... II Table 4 - Outlook for Lending Policies for Business Loans... II Table 5 - Outlook for Demand for Business Loans... III Table 6 - Overall Conditions of Lending to Households... III Table 7 - Demand for Household Loans... IV Table 8 - Outlook for Lending Policies for Household Loans... V Table 9 - Outlook for Demand for Household Loans... V

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6 REPORT ON RESULTS OF THE COMMERCIAL BANK SENIOR LOAN OFFICERS OPINION SURVEY ON CREDIT MARKET CONDITIONS IN THE ECCU (JULY TO DECEMBER 2012) 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY At the ECCU level, overall lending terms and conditions tightened for all types of loans to businesses and households 1 over the period July to December This result compares with expectations in overall lending conditions for all types of business loans and is in contrast to expectation for an easing in lending terms and conditions for loans to households. The tightening in overall lending terms and conditions for the survey period was more pronounced than that reported for the first half of 2012 for all types of business loans and other consumer loans but less severe than that reported for mortgages. The banks reported most tightening in credit underwriting practices and security/collateral requirements. Risks related to the general economic conditions, changes in the percentage of non-performing loans to total loans and the creditworthiness of customers were cited as the main factors which contributed to the tightening. For the first half of 2013, overall lending terms and conditions are expected to tighten for all types of households and business loans. The expectation for tightening is based on the projection that general economic conditions will remain sluggish over the next six months. On the demand side, at the ECCU level, demand declined for all types of loans. This differs from expectations for declines in the demand for all types of businesses loans except short term loans to small and medium sized businesses. The decrease in demand was more pronounced than that reported for the first half of 2012 for all loans except commercial real estate loans, mortgages and short term loans to large businesses. Changes in consumer/business confidence were cited as the main factor influencing the decline. 1 Loans to businesses are categorised into commercial real estate loans, loans to large businesses and loans to small and medium sized businesses. Loans to households are categorised into mortgages and other consumer loans 1

7 For the next six months, expectations are for overall increases in the demand for all types of loans except commercial real estate loans and consumer loans where expectations are for declines in demand. The expectation for a decrease in demand for commercial real estate loans is based on the expectations that the sluggish economy will impact the ability of businesses to meet their short term obligations including monthly debt payments thus increasing the demand for funds and restructuring of existing facilities. For other consumer loans, the expectation for a decrease in demand is based on the view that the poor economic conditions will continue to exert a negative impact on employment and hence consumers desire to take on additional debt. 2. INTRODUCTION In accordance with its function to regulate the availability of money and credit in the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU), the Eastern Caribbean Central Bank (ECCB) conducts a bi-annual survey 2 to capture information on the qualitative (non-price) factors affecting the demand for and supply of credit along with other topical issues relevant to the ECCB. The self-administered questionnaire targets the senior loan officers at the commercial banks 3 in the ECCU and contains questions covering the business and household sectors. The information gathered helps to enhance the knowledge of the trends and developments in credit conditions in the Currency Union which serves as an input into monetary policy decisions at the Central Bank. This report presents the findings of the survey conducted by the ECCB for the period July to December The results of the survey are reported using the net percentage indicator. 4 Declines in the net percentage indicator denote worsening conditions in the environment, while increases denote an improvement. Responses were received from all of the commercial banks. It must be underscored that the results represent the opinions of the senior loan officers at the commercial banks and may not be reflective of the general credit supply and demand 2 The survey was first introduced in the first half of There are 40 commercial banks in the ECCU 4 See Appendix I for further explanation. 2

8 conditions in the ECCU. The ECCB does not undertake any assessment of the results of the survey but only reports the views of respondents as expressed. The table below shows the response rate for each territory. Table 1 - Response Rates Country Number of Banks in Country Number of banks responded % of Total Banks Responded % of Total Asset Contribution Anguilla % 100% Antigua and Barbuda % 100% Dominica % 100% Grenada % 100% Montserrat % 100% St Kitts and Nevis % 100% Saint Lucia % 100% St Vincent and the Grenadines % 100% ECCU % 100.0% The survey results and questions are provided in Appendices II and III respectively. 3. RESULTS OF THE SURVEY 3.1 LENDING TO BUSINESSES This section presents the findings of the survey in regard to the supply and demand for loans to businesses. The outlook for the first half of 2013 is also presented. Supply Side At the ECCU level, overall lending terms and conditions for all types of business loans tightened (Graph 1). The greatest degree of tightening was observed in credit underwriting practices and security/collateral requirements. The banks attributed the tightening in overall lending terms and conditions to risk related to the expected general economic situation and changes in the percentage of non-performing loans to total loans. The tightening reported for the survey period was more pronounced than that observed for the first half of 2012 (Graph 1). 3

9 Graph 1 - ECCU Overall Lending Terms and Conditions for Business Loans Source: Commercial Banks Dominica followed by Saint Lucia reported the greatest degree of tightening in lending terms and conditions for commercial real estates loans and large businesses loans while Saint Lucia followed by Anguilla reported the greatest degree of tightening in lending terms and conditions for loans to small/medium sized businesses (Graph 2) 5. Montserrat showed no change in lending terms and conditions for all types of business loans. Graph 2 - Overall lending Terms and Conditions for Business Loans by Territory Source: Commercial Banks 5 Country codes: ANG Anguilla, ANU Antigua and Barbuda, DOM Dominica, GRE Grenada, MON Montserrat, SKN St Kitts and Nevis, SLU Saint Lucia, SVG St Vincent and the Grenadines, ECCU Eastern Caribbean Currency Union. 4

10 At the bank group level, both the indigenous banks and the foreign-owned banks reported tightening in lending terms and conditions for all types of business loans. When compared with the first half of 2012, the tightening in lending conditions was more pronounced for loans to large businesses and small/medium sized businesses. Outlook Lending Terms and Conditions For the first half of 2013, overall lending terms and conditions at the ECCU level are expected to tighten for all types of business loans however; the level of tightening is expected to be less pronounced than that reported for the current survey period (Graph 1). The expectations are based on the view that the general economic conditions are not likely to show major improvements in the near term. At the country level, all countries except Dominica expect tightening in lending conditions for all categories of loans. Dominica expects easing in lending conditions for all categories of loans except commercial real estate loans. Montserrat expects lending conditions for all categories of business loans to tighten after reporting no change in lending conditions for all types of business loans for the survey period (Graph 3). Graph 3 - Outlook for Lending Terms and Conditions for Business Loans January-June 2013 Source: Commercial Banks 5

11 At the bank group level, the indigenous banks and the foreign banks expect lending terms and conditions to tighten for all types of business loans. For the indigenous bank group, the level of tightening is expected to be more pronounced than that reported for the survey period. Conversely, the foreign bank groups expect lending conditions to be less pronounced. Demand Side At the ECCU level, demand decreased for all categories of business loans (Graph 4). However, when compared with the first half of 2012, the decline in demand was greater for all types of business loans except commercial real estate loans and short-term loans to large businesses (Graph 4). The banks cited changes in business confidence as the main factor contributing to the decrease in the demand. Graph 4 - ECCU Demand for Business Loans Source: Commercial Banks Decreases in demand for business loans were evident in all the countries except Antigua and Barbuda and Montserrat. In Antigua and Barbuda, demand decreased for all types of loans to businesses except commercial real estate loans for which an increase in demand was reported. In Montserrat, demand remained the same for all types of business loans (Graph 5). 6

12 Graph 5 - Demand for Business Loans by Territory Source: Commercial Banks At the bank group level, the indigenous banks and the foreign bank group reported decreases in demand for all types of business loans. Outlook Demand At the ECCU level, banks expect over the period January to June 2013, demand will increase for all categories of business loans except for commercial real estate loans. This is based on expectations that the economic conditions will remain dampened and impact the ability of businesses to meet their short term obligations including monthly debt payments thus increasing the demand for funds and restructuring of existing facilities (Graph 4). In Anguilla, Grenada and Montserrat, demand is expected to increase for all types of business loans (Graph 6). In Montserrat, the expectation for an increase in demand is in contrast to the results for the survey period when no change in demand was reported. In Dominica, demand conditions are expected to remain the same for loans to large businesses and commercial real estate loans and to increase for loans to small/medium businesses. 7

13 Graph 6 - Outlook for Demand for Business Loans (January to June 2013) Source: Commercial Banks The indigenous banks expect demand to decrease for all types of business loans except longterm loans to both small/medium sized businesses and to large businesses. The foreign banks expect demand to increase for all categories of business loans. 3.2 LENDING TO HOUSEHOLDS This section presents the findings of the survey with regard to the supply and demand for loans to households. The outlook for the second half of 2012 is also presented. Supply Side Mortgages At the ECCU level, overall lending terms and conditions for mortgages continue to show tightening however; the tightening was less pronounced than that reported for the previous survey period (January to June 2012) (Graph 7). Credit underwriting practices followed by security/collateral requirements were shown to have the greatest degree of tightening. The banks cited risks related to the expected general economic situation and increases in the 8

14 percentage of non-performing loans to total loans as the main reasons for the tightening in overall lending terms and conditions. The tightening in lending terms and conditions for mortgages was reported in all territories except Grenada and Montserrat; where no changes were reported (Graph 8). This is in contrast with the results of the first half of 2013 where lending terms and conditions tightened in all territories except St Vincent and the Grenadines where lending conditions eased. Both the indigenous and foreign owned bank groups reported tightening in lending terms and conditions for mortgages, however, the degree of tightening reported by the foreign-owned banks was more pronounced than that reported by the indigenous banks. Graph 7 ECCU Overall Lending Terms and Conditions for Household Loans Source: Commercial Banks Other Consumer Loans At the ECCU level, overall lending conditions for other consumer loans tightened. The banks cited risks related to the expected general economic situation and increases in the percentage of non-performing loans to total loans as the main reasons for the tightening in lending conditions (Graph 7). At the country level, tightening in lending terms and conditions for consumer loans was observed in all territories except Grenada and Montserrat; where no changes in lending terms 9

15 and conditions were reported (Graph 8). This is in contrast to the first half of 2012, when all countries except Grenada and St Vincent and the Grenadines reported tightening in lending terms and conditions (Appendix 1; Table 6). Both the indigenous and foreign-owned bank groups reported tightening in lending terms and conditions for other consumer loans. The level of tightening for the survey period was more pronounced than that reported for the last survey period (January to June 2012). Graph 8 - Overall Lending Terms and Conditions for Household Loans by Territory Source: Commercial Banks Outlook Lending Terms and Conditions At the ECCU level, lending terms and conditions for mortgages and consumer loans are expected to tighten; albeit at a lesser extent than that reported for the current survey period (Graph 7). The banks are of the view that the sluggish economic conditions are likely to remain unchanged over the next six months. At a country level, expectations for tightening in lending terms and conditions for both types of household loans were reported in Saint Lucia and St Vincent and the Grenadines. In 10

16 Antigua and Barbuda lending terms and conditions are expected ease for both loan types (Graph 9). Graph 9 - Outlook for Lending Terms and Conditions for Household Loans January to June 2013 Source: Commercial Banks Both the indigenous and foreign-owned banks forecast a tightening in lending terms and conditions for both types of household loans however; the indigenous group expect a greater degree of tightening than the foreign bank groups (Appendix 1; Table 8). Demand Side Mortgages At the ECCU level, the demand for mortgages decreased during the second half of 2012 (Graph 10). This is similar to the results reported for the first half of 2012; however, the decrease in demand was lower for the survey period (Graph 10). The decline in demand for mortgages was mainly attributed to changes in consumer confidence. 11

17 Graph 10 - ECCU Demand for Household Loans Source: Commercial Banks All territories reported a decrease in demand for mortgages except Montserrat, where no change was reported (Graph 11). Other Consumer Loans At the ECCU level, the demand for other consumer loans declined during the second half of 2012 (Graph 10). This is in contrast to an increase in demand reported for the first half of Decline in consumer confidence was cited as the main reason for the decline in demand reported for the survey period. 12

18 Graph 11 - Demand for Household Loans by Territory Source: Commercial Banks All territories except Anguilla, St Vincent and the Grenadines and Montserrat reported decreases in demand for other consumer loans (Graph 11). In Anguilla and St Vincent and the Grenadines demand increased and in Montserrat demand remained unchanged. This is in contrast to the first half of 2012 when four of the eight territories (Anguilla, Antigua and Barbuda, Montserrat and Saint Lucia) reported decreases in demand; the other territories reported increases in demand. For the survey period, the indigenous banks reported an increase in demand for other consumer loans, while the foreign-owned banks reported a decline. The reverse was true for the first half of 2012 where the foreign-owned banks reported an increase in demand and the indigenous banks reported a decline in demand. Outlook Demand At the ECCU level, the demand for mortgages is expected to increase for the first half of 2013 while the demand for other consumer loans is expected to decrease. The forecast for mortgages is based on expectations that the lower mortgage rates being offered will appeal to consumers. For other consumer loans, the expectation for a decrease in demand is based on the view that the poor economic conditions will continue to negatively affect employment and hence consumers desire to take on additional debt. 13

19 All the territories except Saint Lucia, Dominica and Montserrat expect demand for mortgages to increase for the first half of Dominica and Montserrat expect no change in demand and Saint Lucia expect demand to decline. In terms of expectation for other consumer loans, St Kitts and Nevis and Saint Lucia are the only territories where demand is expected to decrease. In Dominica and Montserrat demand for other consumer loans is expected to remain the same while all the other territories expect demand to increase (Graph 12). The indigenous bank group expect demand for both categories of household loans to decrease while the foreign owned banks expect demand to increase for both types of household loans. Graph 12 - Outlook for Demand for Household Loans (January to June 2013) Source: Commercial Banks 3.3 OTHER ISSUES A. New Products During the period July to December 2012, ten banks introduced new products. Of these banks, four introduced two new products. Some of the products introduced included online banking, Visa Platinum credit cards, education loans and productive loans with special rates, holiday helper, special rates on loans to the construction sector and mortgages. For the upcoming survey period (January to June 2013), ten banks plan to introduce new products. These include enhanced business credit card, junior savers plan and loan package to professionals. 14

20 B. Financial Intermediation in a Challenging Environment In the survey, four open-ended questions were posed to the banks under the theme Financial Intermediation in a Challenging Environment (Appendix III). The questions seek to provide information on the following; 1. The top sectors where commercial loans were restructured, the main reason for the restructuring and the policies implemented to assist corporate clients in improving their financial position; 2. The banks adjustments banks have made to their lending policies to the commercial sector and how has the loans performed following the restructuring exercise; 3. The sectors that are most targeted for lending. In terms of the top sectors where commercial loans were restructured, the banks listed tourism, construction, real estate and distributive trade as the main sectors. In addition, most banks stated that about one per cent of their loan portfolio was restructured over the survey period. The banks cited insufficient cash flow brought upon by the decline in business activity as the main reason for restructuring of loans. With respect to adjustment in lending policies to the commercial sector most banks indicated that there were no adjustments in lending policies. However, of the banks who indicated that there were adjustments, such adjustments included reinforcement or better monitoring of the financial performance of their corporate clients. In terms of the sectors that are most targeted for lending, the banks listed distributive trade, professionals and utilities/energy as the sectors that are most targeted. This is mainly due to the view that these areas are more likely to provide a steadier source of income to clients. 4. CONCLUSION At the ECCU level, overall lending terms and conditions for all types of businesses and household loans tightened for the survey period. This is expected to continue for the first half of With regard to demand, at the ECCU level, a decrease in demand for all types of households and business loans was reported for the survey period. For the next six months, 15

21 expectations are for overall increases in the demand for all types of loans except commercial real estate loans and consumer loans where expectations are for declines in demand. 16

22 APPENDIX I: Net Percentage Indicator The indicator is calculated as the difference between the percentage of banks reporting responses of eased considerably or eased somewhat and the percentage of banks reporting responses of tightened considerably or tightened somewhat. This result is then weighted, with the weights being determined for each of the three major categories of loan according to the banks contribution to the total value of loans made in that category. For example, if bank X contributes 70 per cent of the total mortgage loans in the ECCU, then that bank's response is weighted by 70 per cent of the overall results for each question relating to mortgage loans. All responses pertaining to small-medium sized businesses, large businesses or commercial real estate are weighted by the corresponding bank s contribution to total business loans in the ECCU. APPENDIX II: Survey Results Table 2 - Overall Conditions of Lending to Businesses (net percentage) Commercial Real Large Businesses Small/Medium Estate Sized Businesses Jul - Dec'12 Jan - Jun'12 Jul - Dec'12 Jan - Jun'12 Jul - Dec'12 Jan - Jun'12 Anguilla Antigua and Barbuda Dominica Grenada Montserrat St Kitts and Nevis Saint Lucia St Vincent and the Grenadines ECCU Indigenous Banks Foreign Owned Banks I

23 Table 3 - Demand for Business Loans (net percentage) Commercial Real Estate Loans to Large Businesses Loans to Small/Medium Sized Businesses Short-term Long-term Short-term Long-term Jul - Dec '12 Jan - Jun Jul - Dec Jan - Jun Jul - Jan - Jun '12 '12 '12 Dec '12 '12 Jul - Dec '12 Jan - Jun '12 Jul - Dec '12 Jan - Jun '12 Anguilla Antigua and Barbuda Dominica Grenada Montserrat St Kitts and Nevis Saint Lucia St Vincent and the Grenadines ECCU Indigenous Banks Foreign Owned Banks Table 4 - Outlook for Lending Policies for Business Loans January to June 2013 (net percentage) Commercial Real Estate Loans to Large Business Loans to Small/Medium Sized Businesses Shortterm Longterm Shortterm Longterm Anguilla Antigua and Barbuda Dominica Grenada Montserrat St Kitts and Nevis Saint Lucia St Vincent and the Grenadines ECCU Indigenous Banks Foreign Owned Banks II

24 Table 5 - Outlook for Demand for Business Loans January to June 2013 (net percentage) Commercial Real Estate Loans to Large Business Loans to Small/Medium Sized Businesses Shortterm Longterm Shortterm Longterm Anguilla Antigua and Barbuda Dominica Grenada Montserrat St Kitts and Nevis Saint Lucia St Vincent and the Grenadines ECCU Indigenous Banks Foreign Owned Banks Table 6 - Overall Conditions of Lending to Households (net percentage) Mortgages Other Consumer Loans Jul-Dec'12 Jan-Jun'12 Jul-Dec'12 Jan-Jun'12 Anguilla Antigua and Barbuda Dominica Grenada Montserrat St Kitts and Nevis Saint Lucia St Vincent and the Grenadines ECCU Indigenous Banks Foreign Owned Banks III

25 Table 7 - Demand for Household Loans (net percentage) Mortgages Other Consumer Loans Jan-Jun'12 Jan-Jun'12 Jul-Dec'12 Jul-Dec'12 Anguilla Antigua and Barbuda Dominica Grenada Montserrat St Kitts and Nevis Saint Lucia St Vincent and the Grenadines ECCU Indigenous Banks Foreign Owned Banks IV

26 Table 8 - Outlook for Lending Policies for Household Loans January to June 2013 (net percentage) Mortgages Other Consumer Loans Anguilla Antigua and Barbuda Dominica Grenada Montserrat St Kitts and Nevis Saint Lucia St Vincent and the Grenadines ECCU Indigenous Banks Foreign Owned Banks Table 9 - Outlook for Demand for Household Loans January to June 2013 (net percentage) Mortgages Other Consumer Loans Anguilla Antigua and Barbuda Dominica Grenada Montserrat St Kitts and Nevis Saint Lucia St Vincent and the Grenadines ECCU Indigenous Banks Foreign Owned Banks V

27 APPENDIX III: Survey Questions Part I. Credit to Businesses and Households 1. How have the terms and conditions of lending changed over the past six months? 2. How have the following factors affected your bank s lending policies over the past six months? 3. How has the demand for credit by businesses changed at your bank over the past six months, apart from normal seasonal fluctuations? 4. How has the demand for loans by households changed over the past six months, apart from normal seasonal fluctuations? 5. How have the following factors affected the demand for credit over the past six months? 6. Please indicate how you expect your bank s terms and conditions of lending to businesses to change over the next six months. 7. Please indicate how you expect the demand for credit by businesses to change over the next six months, apart from normal seasonal fluctuations? 8. Please indicate how you expect your bank s lending policies for household lending to change over the next six months. 9. Please indicate how you expect the demand for loans to households to change over the next six months, apart from normal seasonal fluctuations? VI

28 Part II. Other Issues New Products 10. What new product(s) have you introduced during the past six months? Please name the product and rate its performance. 11. What new product(s) do you plan to introduce over the next six months? Open-ended Questions: Theme: Financial Intermediation in a Challenging Environment 12. What are the top five sectors where commercial loans were restructured for the period July to December 2012? 13. (a) What percentage of total commercial loans was restructured for the period July to December 2012? (b) What were the main reasons for the restructuring of these loans? (c) What additional policies were implemented by your institution to assist corporate clients in improving their financial position or the management of their financial assets? 14. (a) Has your bank adjusted its lending policies to the commercial sector? Please give details. (b) How have the loans performed following the restructuring exercise? 15. What priority sectors are being targeted for lending? What is the rationale for selecting these sectors? VII

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