Business Financial Services Monitor Micro, Small and Medium Businesses Summary Report of Key Findings June 2013

Transcription

1 Business Financial Services Monitor Micro, Small and Medium Businesses Summary Report of Key Findings June 2013 Released July 2013 Market Research Professionals 5-7 Guest St, Hawthorn, Victoria 3122 Australia T (61 3) F (61 3) E dbm@dbmcons.com.au

2 A Big Thank You! Thank you for participating in the DBM Business Financial Services Monitor (BFSM). The DBM BFSM is the largest ongoing study of businesses in Australia, with over 19,000 surveys a year conducted among a crosssection of the Australian Business community. From February 2009 to June 2013, around 76,000 financial decision-makers like yourself (in micro, small or medium businesses) participated in this survey by sharing their opinions, outlook and intentions for their businesses, as well as information about the way businesses do their banking. The responses that we collected are now helping Australian financial institutions to better understand and improve the way they deal with businesses like yours. To thank you for your participation in this survey, we have prepared this report, containing information about the key changes in perceptions of economic outlook between March and Jun 2013 and further back. The aim of this summary report is to provide you with information relating to the opinions and behaviours of businesses with turnover of up to $40 million* across Australia, and let you compare your business outlook with others like your own. Please accept this report with our thanks and gratitude for your participation in the survey. We hope you will find it interesting and useful. Sincerely, Dhruba Gupta Managing Director DBM Consultants 5-7 Guest Street, Hawthorn Victoria 3122, Australia. * In early reporting periods, the cap for micro, small or medium businesses was $50m. Prepared by DBM Consultants Pty Ltd Commercial-In-Confidence June 2013 Page 2

3 Key Findings Medium-sized businesses least optimistic about the next year. While businesses turning over less than $40m appear to have stabilised their expectations in the next year, following two years of ever gloomier predictions, the Medium-sized organisations ($5m-$40m turnover) are once again becoming less optimistic about future revenue and staffing levels. Both of these measures appeared to have plateaued in the second half of 2012, but now... there has been a decline, over the past quarter, in the number of these businesses expecting their revenue to rise from 58% to 56%; and the proportion of $5m-$40m businesses anticipating an increase in staffing levels has declined from 33% in December 2012, to 31% in March 2012, to 28% now. Business expectations in the next 12 months ($5m-$40m businesses) 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 72% 45% 56% 28% 20% 10% 0% Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Revenue to increase Staffing level to increase Note: 6 month rolling average data to June 2013 Overall, among Medium, Small and Micro businesses: The economy is still the main issue worrying them, (mentioned by 43% as one of their three main issues). Revenue predictions have not changed over the past quarter 46% expect turnover to increase, 16% to decline. Employment expectations are virtually unchanged 15% expect to employ more staff, 7% to employ fewer. The proportion who believe they will increase their level of debt in the next 12 months has remained at 6% for five quarters in a row. Prepared by DBM Consultants Pty Ltd Commercial-In-Confidence June 2013 Page 3

4 The Top Issues Facing Businesses Business Issues Managing costs increasingly an issue for businesses. While the economy is still the main issue of concern for Medium, Small and Micro businesses - mentioned by 43% as one of their three main concerns managing costs and overheads is now a worry for 34%, up from 32% in March Maintaining revenue or growing it is now an issue for 28% (up from 26% in March 2013). No other issue is mentioned by more than a quarter of businesses turning over less than $40m. 50% Top Issues Facing Business (All Businesses with Turnover up to $40m) The current economic environment 40% 32% 28% 28% 25% 24% 20% 23% 22% 17% 14% 10% 43% 34% 28% 25% 24% 23% 21% 15% 9% Managing costs / overheads Maintaining or growing current revenue Competition from other businesses Managing cash flow Government regulations The marketing of your business to customers Finding suitable staff 0% Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Interest rates Source: DBM Consultants Business Financial Services Monitor January 2010 to June Base: All Businesses with turnover up to $40m. Each point represents a 6 month rolling average. Question: In your opinion, what are the top 3 issues facing your business currently? June 2013 interviews = 8,417 Prepared by DBM Consultants Pty Ltd Commercial-In-Confidence June 2013 Page 4

5 The Top Issues Facing Businesses Business Issues Level of concern about economy equal across various business segments. All three business segments turning over less than $40m record the same level of concern about the economy as in March 2013 Micro (43%), Small (41%), Medium (41%). 50% Concerns About The Current Economic Environment (By Business Size) 40% 20% 32% 31% 31% 43% 41% 41% 10% 0% Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Micro businesses ($0m-$1m turnover) Small businesses ($1m-$5m turnover) Source: DBM Consultants Business Financial Services Monitor January 2010 to June Base: All Businesses with turnover up to $40m split by business size. Each point represents a 6 month rolling average. Question: In your opinion, what are the top 3 issues facing your business currently? Medium size businesses ($5m-$40m turnover) June 2013 interviews: Micro = 5,066 Small = 2,251 Medium = 1,154 Prepared by DBM Consultants Pty Ltd Commercial-In-Confidence June 2013 Page 5

6 The Top Issues Facing Businesses Business Issues Agri businesses more and more worried about economy. The proportion of businesses involved in Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing who cite the economy as a worry to them has increased from 26% in the December 2012 Quarter to 34% in the March Quarter to 39% now. There are still, however, several sectors more likely than that to worry about the economic situation, including Retailers (50%), Transport and Storage organisations (49%), Construction companies (47%) and three industries which report decreasing concern over the past 6 months - Manufacturers (45%, down from 51% in March and 54% in December 2012), Finance and Insurance companies (43% now, 46% in March, 52% in December 2012) and organisations involved in Property and Business Services (41% now, 44% in March, 47% in December 2012). 60% 50% 39% 40% 37% 36% 35% 34% 26% 20% 22% Concerns About The Current Economic Environment (By Industry) 50% 49% 47% 45% 43% 41% 39% Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing Manufacturing Construction Retail trade Transport and Storage Finance and Insurance Property and Business Services 10% Health and Community Services 0% Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Source: DBM Consultants Business Financial Services Monitor January 2010 to June Base: All Businesses with turnover up to $40m split by business size. Each point represents a 6 month rolling average. Question: In your opinion, what are the top 3 issues facing your business currently?. June 2013 interviews = 8,417 Prepared by DBM Consultants Pty Ltd Commercial-In-Confidence June 2013 Page 6

7 Revenue Expectation in the Next 12 Months Expectations Revenue predictions the same as in March, but still positive. As in March, close to half of all Medium, Small and Micro businesses (46%) believe their turnover will increase in the next 12 months. One in six (16%) think it will fall, while the remainder expect their revenues to either not change (34%) or are unsure about the coming year (4%). 60% 56% Revenue Expectations (Next 12 Months) 50% 40% 31% 46% 34% Increase slightly/substantially Remain the same as they are now Decrease slightly/substantially Don't know 20% 16% 9% 10% 3% 4% 0% Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Source: DBM Consultants Business Financial Services Monitor January 2010 to June Base: All Businesses with turnover up to $40m. Each point represents a 6 month rolling average. Question: In the next 12 months do you expect your business revenues will most likely? June 2013 interviews = 8,417 Prepared by DBM Consultants Pty Ltd Commercial-In-Confidence June 2013 Page 7

8 Revenue Expectation in the Next 12 Months Expectations Micro businesses clearly less optimistic than others about revenues. Micro businesses, which make up the bulk of <$40m businesses, are the least likely to predict an upswing in their revenues (45%), compared with Small businesses (55%) and Medium-sized businesses (56%). While a declining level of optimism has plagued Medium-sized businesses in recent years, with those predicting an increase in revenue declining from 72% to 58% between Dec 2010 and Jun 2012, that proportion had stabilised for a year, but now falls to 56%. 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 72% 69% 54% Revenue Expectations By Turnover - % Increase Slightly / Substantially (Next 12 Months) 56% 55% 45% 20% 10% 0% Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Micro businesses ($0m-$1m turnover) Small businesses ($1m-$5m turnover) Source: DBM Consultants Business Financial Services Monitor January 2010 to June Base: All Businesses with turnover up to $40m split by business size. Each point represents a 6 month rolling average. Question: In the next 12 months do you expect your business revenues will most likely? Medium size businesses ($5m-$40m turnover) June 2013 interviews: Micro = 5,066 Small = 2,251 Medium = 1,154 Prepared by DBM Consultants Pty Ltd Commercial-In-Confidence June 2013 Page 8

9 Employment Expectation in the Next 12 Months Expectations Increasing uncertainty about employment levels. The proportion of employers who are unsure whether their workforce will increase or decrease has risen significantly - from 9% in June 2010 to 15% now. As last month, the number of businesses who expect to take on more employees is almost double the number who will reduce the size of their workforce in the next year (15% vs. 7%). 80% Employment Expectations (Next 12 Months) 70% 60% 65% 63% Employ more staff Employ the same number of staff 50% Employ fewer staff 40% 20% 20% 15% 10% 9% 15% 7% 0% 5% Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Don't know Source: DBM Consultants Business Financial Services Monitor January 2010 to June Base: All Businesses with turnover up to $40m. Each point represents a 6 month rolling average. Question: Thinking about staffing in 12 months time, do you expect your business will most likely? June 2013 interviews = 8,417 Prepared by DBM Consultants Pty Ltd Commercial-In-Confidence June 2013 Page 9

10 Employment Expectation in the Next 12 Months Expectations Medium-sized companies less positive than ever about employment. The 28% of Medium-sized businesses that believe they will employ more staff in the next year is lower than ever before. In June 2010 well over four in ten businesses of this size (45%) thought they would employ more staff in the following 12 months. Small businesses (t/o $1m-$5m) are slightly more optimistic than they were six months ago, with 29% likely to increase their workforce, up from 26% in December Micro businesses are still clearly the least likely of all segments to increase their employee levels with just one in eight (13%) intending to do so. 50% 45% Employment Expectations By Turnover - % Employ More (Next 12 Months) 40% 20% 10% 37% 18% 29% 28% 13% 0% Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Micro businesses Small businesses ($0m-$1m turnover) ($1m-$5m turnover) Source: DBM Consultants Business Financial Services Monitor January 2010 to June Base: All Businesses with turnover up to $40m. Each point represents a 6 month rolling average. Question: Thinking about staffing in 12 months time, do you expect your business will most likely? Medium size businesses ($5m-$40m turnover) June 2013 interviews: Micro = 5,066 Small = 2,251 Medium = 1,154 Prepared by DBM Consultants Pty Ltd Commercial-In-Confidence June 2013 Page 10

11 Borrowing Expectation in the Next 12 Months Expectations Borrowing intentions not changing. The proportion of Medium, Small and Micro businesses who think they will increase their level of debt in the next year or so has remained at 6% for the 5 th consecutive quarter. In fact, since late 2009 this figure has been either 5% or 6%. The 39% of businesses turning over less than $40m who have no debt and will not borrow in the next year is at an all-time high. Borrowing Expectations (Next 12 Months) 40% 36% 39% Increase the amount of its debts 34% 32% Keep the amount of debt the same Reduce the amount of debt 20% 17% 15% 10% 6% 6% 5% 4% 3% 0% 2% Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Pay off debts completely No current debt and will not borrow in next 12 months Don't know Source: DBM Consultants Business Financial Services Monitor January 2010 to June Base: All Businesses with turnover up to $40m. Each point represents a 6 month rolling average. Question: Now please think about the amount of debt that the business owes. In 12 months time, do you expect your business revenues will most likely? June 2013 interviews = 8,417 Prepared by DBM Consultants Pty Ltd Commercial-In-Confidence June 2013 Page 11

12 Appendix 1: BFSM Media Coverage Prepared by DBM Consultants Pty Ltd Commercial-In-Confidence June 2013 Page 12

13 Appendix: BFSM Media Coverage In early June, DBM Consultants Managing Director, Dhruba Gupta, appeared on Switzer TV on SkyNEWS Business channel to discuss findings from the BFSM. This was the third time in the past year one of our Directors had featured on the program. Other publicity for the survey comes from our monthly media release, which uses results from the BFSM. Also, we are often asked to comment on issues which are the subject of feature articles in the financial press. The articles opposite and overleaf represent just some of many that have appeared in the press over the past three months using BFSM data as the basis for the article. Prepared by DBM Consultants Pty Ltd Commercial-In-Confidence June 2013 Page 13

14 Appendix: BFSM Media Coverage Prepared by DBM Consultants Pty Ltd Commercial-In-Confidence June 2013 Page 14

15 Appendix: BFSM Media Coverage Prepared by DBM Consultants Pty Ltd Commercial-In-Confidence June 2013 Page 15

16 Appendix: BFSM Media Coverage Prepared by DBM Consultants Pty Ltd Commercial-In-Confidence June 2013 Page 16

17 Appendix 2: BFSM Charity Donations Prepared by DBM Consultants Pty Ltd Commercial-In-Confidence June 2013 Page 17

18 Appendix: BFSM Charity Donations Each month we donate money to charities on behalf of people like yourself who complete the survey. Since February 2009, when the BFSM commenced, we have donated close to $380,000 to charities, with the eleven largest recipients displayed in the chart opposite Once again, without your participation, the conduct of this survey would not be possible, and we thank you for taking part. Cancer Council Australia Australian Red Cross BFSM Charity Donations Top 11 Beneficiaries $82,885 $89,800 RSPCA $42,610 Fred Hollows Foundation $39,070 Starlight Foundation $27,030 The Smith Family $17,720 Heart Foundation $16,250 Kids Helpline / Boystown $15,830 Queensland Flood Relief $10,790 Vision Australia $8,620 Sea Shepherd Conservation Society $5,530 Other charities $21,850 $0 $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000 $100,000 Prepared by DBM Consultants Pty Ltd Commercial-In-Confidence June 2013 Page 18

19 DBM Consultants. This report has been prepared for information purposes only. The recipient must not reproduce or transmit to third parties the whole or any part of this report without the prior written permission of DBM Consultants. Market Research Professionals 5-7 Guest St, Hawthorn, Victoria 3122 Australia T (61 3) F (61 3) E dbm@dbmcons.com.au