The DAP, MAP, TSP Trade Outlook

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1 The DAP, MAP, TSP Trade Outlook Estrategia, sincronización y oportunismo Tom Jago, CEO, Profercy Phosphates SC Jornada Tecnica Acefer, Madrid, 22 Octubre 214

2 Today s presentation: 3 Sections (Profercy: Basics & intro) Big picture: China, India, S&D 215 Detalle: Donde hay que acertar China, N América, India, Brasil End game (zona de definición): Respuestas: Cuando comprar, vender China impuesto bajo ya cerrado...ahora tierra desconocida Tom Jago CEO Profercy Phosphates SC Jornada Tecnica Acefer, Madrid, 22 Octubre 214

3 Lo que hacemos Intel de mercado & Pronosticar precio Estudios S/D, simulaciones Escenarios Trade balance & trade flow Asesoramiento de estrategia, táctica Como lo hacemos Informes de mercado: Diaro, Semanal, Trimestral 5-year Profercy Phosphates Horizon Servicios de consultoría a medida Tom Jago CEO Profercy Phosphates SC Jornada Tecnica Acefer, Madrid, 22 Octubre 214

4 El peor enemigo del estrategista es el cronómetro... Gary Kasparov, Gran Maestro del ajedrez

5 Tom Jago, CEO, Profercy Phosphates SC Jornada Tecnica Acefer, Madrid, 22 Octubre 214

6 $ pt fob Tampa DAP $pt fob Tampa: Rango de precio se achica, pero todavía $ a. New, narrower trading range ($1pt) emerges near mid point of the wider $235pt price band (b) over the last 3 years a. c. b c. We see the US industry able to hold DAP export above $45pt fob for most of October, but slippage may be seen into November when India can no longer afford more (subsidy spent). Heavy loads for Australia may not come until December.

7

8 Assumptions Chinese exports 6.2m tonnes in 2 nd half, 1.6m tonnes for 214 versus 8.3m tonnes in 213. Low prices result in slightly reduced volumes July-December compared with 2h 213 (7m tonnes). Indian imports in second half 5.5m tonnes. Added to 1.5m tonnes imported to date brings April- December to 7m tonnes, in line with April- December 213.

9 MOP $pt cfr BMD Palm Oil RMpt Potash vs Palm oil: CPO consolidates revival, set to challlenge current RM2,2 "ceiling" As a result, palm oil prices stay just 1% under the mid 1H 213 range at +/-RM2,35, smop was then (a) $1pt above today a. smop & CPO futures in July 213 Palm oil Palm oil slips again Biggest smop move up or down since Q4 '13. Price now regaining Q3 levels of last year gmop cfr Brazil gmop cfr NOLA metric equ. Spot smop cfr SE Asia

10 China, India: Global context

11 China, India: Global context 1) China 214 Urea: Produccion 7mt Total mundial de 17m (41%) Exportacion 9m Total comercio mundial de 55m (16%) Consumo local 6m DAP, MAP: Produccion 29mt Total mundial de 58m (46%) Exportacion 5.8m Total comercio mundial de 2m (29%) Consumo local 23m Gran sensibilidad al mercado local. Con relacion al uso domestico se exporta proporcionalmente mas DAP, MAP (25%) que urea (15%),

12 China e India en el contexto global 2) India 214 Urea: Produccion 24mt Consumo local total (75%) Importaciones m Total mundial de 55m (14%) DAP: Produccion 3.5mt en 214 Consumo local (4%) Importaciones m Total mundial de 2m (4%) y 45% de DAP solo Impacto: Urea puntual, intensifica; DAP fundamental, constante

13 Retos el comercio internacional del P2O5 Phosphates S&D: Trade balance y curva de valor más volátil de todos los nutrientes principales en los últimos 5 aňos. El precio DAP lleva oscilándose en un rango de precio de $235pt en el período ; y de $175pt solo en los últimos 1 meses Oportunismo, sincronización [ingles: timing ]: Ha llegado a ser casi siempre fuera los periodos traditionales de la estancionalidad o del cost-of-carry. Asi que esta sincronización resulta clave para lograr una estrategia eficaz de compra a corto plazo Exposición: Los dos lados opuestos del S&D ya están lo suficientement expuestos a los vaivenes de valor del P2O5, sin entrar en otros impactos secundarios e.g. divisa, costo del dinero, flete, precious a futuro del cultivo

14 Section 1 Big picture Tom Jago CEO Profercy Phosphates SC Jornada Tecnica Acefer, Madrid, 22 Octubre 214

15 65, Global Phosphoric Acid: Net new capacity vs fertilizer acid S&D projection Convergence shows tight bull-run Diverging for a soft Another tight convergence for , million tonnes P 2 O 5 55, 5, 45, 4, Existing phosacid capacity (cum.) Net New Capacity Industry operating rate (83-85% cap) Phosacid avails to fert sector Phos fertilizer acid demand 35, 3,

16 million tonnes P2O Specialisation: DAP yields space on output slate to MAP, NPs DAP MAP TSP Acid-based NPs, NPKs 35 3 =

17 't both grades 't both grades Outlook today: Global DAP & MAP S&D combined Output stable: Integrated industry margins strong, no incentive to cut back; New OCP JPH unit in Q Demand volatile: In sharp contrast to supply, cash-flow controls, risk aversion, preference for low channel stock-carry all contribute to making demand volatile and opportunistic Supply Demand Notes: S&D estimates are for DAP & MAP combined worldwide, up to & incl. 44 units P2O5. Totals include India DAP & MAP imports only (ie they omit local Indian output & local deliveries; exports are prohibitied). Supply totals include exports only from minor off-shore sellers eg: Turkey, Korea; Vietnam; No more exports from Spain, nor Philippines, nor S Africa recently.

18 't DAP & MAP combined 6. Global DAP, MAP Balance: Trade Surplus & Deficit Trade bal. m/m hoy

19 't DAP & MAP combined 1.5 Highly volatile trade climate: Global DAP, MAP Trade Surplus & Deficit Market moves in a 1.5m tonne surplus/deficit range (a) near quarterly basis Intense demand swings as many markets defer, bottom-fishing & ultimately missing opportunities. Monthly demand extremes in a wide arc a. Today -5 Trade bal. m/m -1.

20 Section 2 Detalle: Donde hay que acertar Más de parte de Kasparov Tom Jago CEO Profercy Phosphates SC

21 Donde hay que acertar Global impact China: Capacity nears 2mt P2O5 North America: 8mt P2O5 local output, 1m in US & Canada imports India 8mt P2O5 Brazil 5mt P2O5 Juntos representan 85% del mercado global de los fosfatados concentrados (mas de 44 unidades P2O5)

22 Donde hay que acertar Global impact China: Capacity nears 2mt P2O5 North America: 8mt P2O5 local output, 1m in US & Canada imports India 8mt P2O5 Brazil 5mt P2O5 Mas volatiles, exposicion mas grande a importaciones, y donde se gana o se pierde la partida del ajedrez Together these are 85% of world trade in contrated phosphates

23 nos reduce a todos al reflejo puro, a la reacción, y a jugadas tácticas......la emoción y el instinto nos enturbian vista estratégica, cuando ya no queda tiempo para una evaluación debida... Gary Kasparov, Chess Grand Master

24 China Export surplus Usage plateau? Food grains targets Demand today is strong 2% price increase in 2 months Perception of value, still 15% below 5 year ave. Output stable: m tpm DAP, 9tpm MAP Slowdown in new capacity coming on stream Surplus & Export call: m tonnes DAP and m tonnes MAP Traditionally not a market for stock carry, except for a few years of bonded warehouse loophole

25 $pt fob Tampa 12 China export tax: New territory from Jan 215? April 1 May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 11 Feb '11 Mar April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 12 Feb '12 Mar April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 13 Feb '13 Mar April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 14 Feb '14 Mar April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan '15 Feb '15 Mar April May June July Aug Sept

26 $pt fob Tampa Percent % export tax 7 China export tax: New territory from Jan 215? New territory: China s Low export tax windows were seen as incentives for deferral in all world markets in recent years. If, as is universally expected, export tax will be uniform in 215, opportunity buyers will have to think harder about the global S&D in 1H DAP fob Tampa (month end) China DAP export tax (%)

27 Capacity migration, specialisation: Less DAP, MAP, more NPs. North America Specialisation, imports Detail: By 216 Mosaic will have 3.5m tpa capacity of NPs, substituting DAP, MAP. 12 units less P2O5 per product tonne vs MAP & NPs So greater scope for imports. US, the world s export benchmark is now a big import reference. Competition with Latin America Supply-side consolidation: Mosaic, CF; followed by PotashCorp & OCP Canada almost exclusively supplied from the US in recent times 7ktpa MAP, DAP

28 t P2O5 6. Brazil P 2 O 5 : Chinese boosts share of total imports, but does little to stem widening total import need No major Brazil domestic capacity expansions till 218-2, so strong imports are a big local priority Conventional MAP & DAP imports growth rate slows, but total just over 3m tonnes product is the backbone of Brazilian import security. Scope for over 3.mt P 2 O 5 total phosphates imports or near 6mt MAP equivalent, approaching 6% of total needs No firm board decisions on new P 2 O 5 capacity. Like India keeps a clear ceiling on local capacity, but around 2 million tpa P2O5 Local production All imports (MAP light blue) TSP import DAP imports SSP imports NP/K Imports¹ Local deliveries (all P2O5)

29 't P2O5 in DAP& NPKs, NPs & SSP DAP: $ pt cfr India 9 India phosphates usage "gap" develops, as imports decline during subsidy & rupee crises Chart below assumes DAP imports in 214 near 5mt plus some NP/NPK imports. Even at this level, 1.8mt P 2 O 5 (3.9mt DAP) is missing vs peak years "Phosphate gap" = m tpa P2O5 If covered by DAP (cheapest source of NP), implication is for +/- 4m tpa in additional DAP imports Local production ceiling in gradual decline, but still at near 4 million tonnes P2O5 all products NP/K Imports DAP imports Local NP/K & SSP prodn Local DAP prodn DAP $pt cfr India (each May)

30 16 21: 7.4m 211: 6.9m India DAP imports : 5.7m : 3.3m 214: 3.6m (5m m ) India DAP imports DAP fob Tampa (month end)

31 t % Export Tax 16 India DAP imports, China export tax: Indian seasonality fitted the low-tax windows : 7.4m : 6.9m : 5.7m...especially in the major contract years : 3.3m India DAP imports China DAP export tax (%) : m (this year unfinished)

32 't DAP (red, green), all ferts 't P₂O₅ (white) India DAP S&D 21-14: Hand to mouth DAP stocks (green) 14 Today DAP stocks DAP Imports Local DAP Output (white bar) Local DAP Sales Local DAP price (Rs/t x 1) Sales total P₂O₅ (yellow line)

33 't DAP India DAP S&D 21-14: Inventory heads to historic in-season low DAP stocks (green) a b. 6 3 DAP stocks DAP Imports Local DAP Output (white bar) Local DAP Sales Local DAP price (Rs/t x 1) Sales total P₂O₅ (yellow line)

34 't DAP & MAP combined $pt fob Tampa Last forecast and recent forecasting performance June forecast Hoy Blue line: Actual spot moves Our end June price call: We thought the market was about half-way down a 1.3m tonne deficit run June-Sept 14. We estimated this would lift prices $85pt to end Aug, peaking near $52pt fob Tampa ($515pt was the eventual top-out). By October, we foresaw prices would have lost most of these gains, sliding back down below $45pt fob Tampa, even to $42pt fob in Nov. This is still a reasonable expectation, in our opinion June Surplus / Deficit take Trade bal. m/m US$ pt fob Tampa June Current 3 forecast

35 Section 3: End game: Sincronizacion, oportunismo, respuestas Despite useful tools at our disposal Like Kasparov, the clock is a major challenge to our game plan

36 't DAP & MAP combined $pt fob Tampa Global DAP & MAP* Trade Balance: Surplus, Deficit, Price Supply Demand Trade bal. m/m US$ pt fob Tampa Today * *(both grades combined) We see more gradual trade surplus build during Q4 14 vs that in April/May 14. As a result, market spends longer time to erode lower in the typical Q4 doldrums. At the same time, India will have spent its subsidy allocation, unable to take advantage of a return to low prices, even if it sees value. In parallel, none of the other game-changing markets (China, USA or Brazil) are in a hurry

37 't DAP & MAP combined $pt fob Tampa Global DAP & MAP Trade Balance: DAP Price Outlook near-term Q4 Today * Trade bal. m/m US$ pt fob Tampa Current forecast Near-term price call: We are now half-way up a likely 6kt switch to surplus August to end November. The last comparable volume switch to the long side, in Q3 213 cut prices around 5-6pt in a 6-day window. This would imply further, though limited downside from today s $46pt fob Tampa through into late November

38 't DAP & MAP combined $pt fob Tampa Global DAP & MAP* Trade Balance: DAP Price Outlook into 1H Trade bal. m/m US$ pt fob Tampa Current forecast Today * We see more gradual deferred demand return Dec 14 to Jan 15 than in the early-214 scramble that triggered $175pt, 12-week bull run. Knowing the troubled situation India faces for 215, many markets may buying DAP, MAP in anticipation, at a careful pace. The rhythm will depend on crop prices & specifics on farm economics in different regions. Most, however, will aim to keep channel stocks at working minimums. India will likely move late, undermining prices momentarily in Q2 prior to a spree, & rapid Q3 rally

39 't DAP & MAP combined $pt fob Tampa Global DAP & MAP* Trade Balance: DAP Price Outlook; Florida cash cost context Trade bal. m/m US$ pt fob Tampa Current forecast Today * Est. Florida DAP cash cost Nov 13 Oct 14 Florida DAP cash margins: Despite Mosaic s cutback announcement last week, Florida cash margins are decent under current input costs (blue arrow above). This is contrast to late 213. At that time, and on seeing the Florida cash cost threshold within $5pt of the spot market, US domestic buyers moved quickly to restock. This was the detonation for the major international rally. If ammonia continues rising into Q4, NOLA buyers well informed on the cost profile will probably take the cue

40 't DAP & MAP combined 1.5 Respuestas: Puntos de entrada, sincronización 1. 5 Hoy a. -5 Trade bal. m/m -1.

41 Tom Jago, CEO, Profercy Phosphates SC

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