Kazakhstan. Georgia. Slovakia Romania. Serbia. Spain. Malta. Russia. Montenegro. Azerbaijan. Cyprus

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2 1 Ecnmic impact In2011thembilecmmunicatinsindustryhascntributedTRY28.8billinttheTurkish ecnmy,arund2.3%fgdp(directcntributinftry11.3billin,indirecttry9.2 billin,andadditinalmultipliereffectftry8.2billin). Theindustrydirectlyemplyednearly150,000FullTimeEquivalents( FTEs )andan additinal55,800ftesareemplyedindirectly. Cnsumer taxatin: levies the highest tax rates wrld-wide Figure1:TaxasapercentagefTCMO,2011 Surce:Delitte/GSMAGlbalMbileTaxReview2011 AsFigure1shws,taxesrepresented48.2%ftheTtalCstfMbileOwnership( TCMO ) 1 frtheaverageturkishcnsumeragainstaglbalaveragef18.2%.turkishmbile cnsumersaretaxedasfllws: Usage:43%(25%cmmunicatintaxand18%VAT)frviceandSMSand23%(5% cmmunicatintaxand18%vat)frdata. Handsets:49% Activatin:TRY47.2in2011risingt51.56in2012. Annualchargeneachsubscriptin:TRY13.2in2011risingtTRY14.56in2012. Thehightaxratesnegativelyimpactmarketdevelpment.Ntnlydesmbilepenetratin inlagthereurpeanandneighburingcuntries(figure2)butalsananalysisf cuntriesthathadalwerpenetratinthanin2000shwsthatpenetratininallf themhasutpacedby2011(figure3). Figure2:MbilepenetratininasamplefEurpeanandneighburingcuntries,2011 Surce:WirelessIntelligence 1TheTCMOisderivedfrmhandsetcsts,cnnectincsts,rentalcsts(typicallyfrpstpayservices)andcallandSMS usagecsts.handsetandcnnectincstsinareamrtisedverathreeyearperid 5% 1 15% 25% 3 35% 45% 5 Austria Malta Mntenegr Cyprus Mntenegr Austria Cyprus Malta

3 Figure3:PenetratininasamplefEurpeanandneighburingcuntries, Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Surce:WirelessIntelligence Business Taxatin: Discriminatry and Distrtinary Inadditintcrpratetax,mbileperatrspaya15.35%treasuryshareand cntributinfeetthenatinalregulatryauthritynrevenues.itsimplementatinraisesa numberfcncerns: UnlikeVATrtheSpecialCmmunicatinsTaxwhicharecllectedfrmcnsumers byperatrsnbehalffthegvernment,thetreasuryshareandthecntributinfee areleviednperatrsdirectlyandaretherefrenttransparenttcnsumers. Thetreasuryshareandcntributinfeearediscriminatryintheirtreatmentf mbileperatrsrelativettherindustries,andassucharedistrtinary. WhereasisintrducingregulatincnsistentwiththeEurpeanUnin(EU) framewrkinanumberfareas,e.g.mbileterminatinrates,ncuntryintheeu appliesasimilartreasuryshareandcntributinfeeandthisisntalignedwiththe EUstelecmmunicatinsframewrk. Operatrsneedtprvidesubstantivesubsidiestcustmersinrdertcmpetein themarketincludingbutntlimitedtactivatinandannualcharges. Operatrs netearningsaretherefrenegativelyaffectedbybththetreasuryshareand cntributinfeeandbytaxrelatedsubsidies.figure4demnstratesthecmparisnf sebitdamarginwitheucuntries. Figure4:EBITDAmargin, Surce:WirelessIntelligence LwEBITDAmarginsinalsraisecncernsabuttheabilityftheindustryt recupthelargefixedinfrastructureinvestmentsalreadymade,andputsfutureinvestment atrisk.figure5shwsthatcapitalexpenditure(capex)investmentpercapitainlags behindeurpeancuntries. 2

4 Figure5:Capexpercapita,2010,US$ Surce:WirelessIntelligencedata Reducing tax: A win win scenari Mntenegr Incuntrieswheretaxatinishigh,reducingtaxatinhastheptentialtprvidemre psitiveeffectsthanincuntrieswheretaxatinislwer.amrelenienttaxatinregimein wuldincreasembilepenetratinandusage,expandthemarketandimprve prfitabilityandwuldalsberevenuepsitivefrthegvernmentinthemediumterm. Ascenarianalysiswasmdelledtcmpareabasecase(wherebyntaxchangesccur) againstanefftaxreductinin2012,cveringtheperid2012t2016.theneff reductincmprised: Usage:AreductinincmmunicatintaxncallsandSMSfrm25%t15%(the samelevelthatisappliedtfixedtelecmservices. Activatin:Theeliminatinfmbilespecificsubscriptincharges,i.e.theWireless LicenceFee(TRY13.2in2011)andthefixedcmpnentftheSpecial CmmunicatinsTax(TRY34in2011)ndatanlySIMcards. ApartialreductinftheWirelessLicenceFeeandthefixedcmpnentfthe SpecialCmmunicatinsTaxnalltherSIMcards. Theresultsflweringtaxesareencuraging: Mbilepenetratinwuldreach104%in2016asppsedt98%inthebasecaseand 3Gpenetratinwuldreach72%in2016asppsedt68%inthebasecase. DatanlySIMcardsaleswuldalmstbeduble. TtalminutesfuseandSMSwuldbe8%highereachyear. Figure6shwsthatin2015,gvernmentreceiptsfrmmbileandgeneraltaxatin wuldbehigherthaninthebasecaseandtheincreasewillbemaintained thereafter. Figure61:Gvernmenttaxrevenues, ,TRYmillins 25,000 24,000 23,000 22,000 21,000 20,000 19,000 18,000 17,000 16, base tax reductin scenari Surce:Delitteanalysis 3

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