Online Appendix: Who Supports an Anti-Corruption Party? Theory with Evidence from India. August 22, 2015

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1 Online Appendix: Who Supports an Anti-Corruption Party? Theory with Evidence from India August 22, 2015

2 Table 1: Descriptive statistics of AAP/Cicero surveys (37,764 complete observations). Mean Std. Dev. Min Max INC AAP BJP Other Parties Age Female Income Decile: Income Decile: Income Decile: Income Decile: Income Decile: Income Decile: Income Decile: Income Decile: Income Decile: Income Decile: Non Literate Below Primary Primary pass/middle fail Middle pass/matric fail Matric Intermediate/College no degree Graduate or equivalent Post Graduate Professional degrees and Higher research Caste: Other Caste: OBC Caste: SC/ST Religion: Hindu Religion: Muslim Religion: Other Adults in Household Children in Household

3 Table 2: Multinomial logistic analysis of AAP/Cicero surveys. Baseline: INC. Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(> z ) AAP: (Intercept) Age Female Income Decile: Income Decile: Income Decile: Income Decile: Income Decile: Income Decile: Income Decile: Income Decile: Income Decile: Education: Below Primary Education: Primary pass/middle fail Education: Middle pass/matric fail Education: Matric Education: Intermediate/College no degree Education: Graduate or equivalent Education: Post Graduate Education: Professional degrees and Higher research Caste: OBC Caste: SC/ST Religion: Muslim Religion: Other Adults in Household Children in Household Wave: Wave: BJP: (Intercept) Age Female Income Decile: Income Decile: Income Decile: Income Decile: Income Decile: Income Decile: Income Decile: Income Decile: Income Decile: Education: Below Primary Education: Primary pass/middle fail Education: Middle pass/matric fail Education: Matric Education: Intermediate/College no degree Education: Graduate or equivalent Education: Post Graduate Education: Professional degrees and Higher research Caste: OBC Caste: SC/ST Religion: Muslim Religion: Other Adults in Household Children in Household Wave: Wave: Other: (Intercept) Age Female Income Decile: Income Decile: Income Decile: Income Decile: Income Decile: Income Decile: Income Decile: Income Decile: Income Decile: Education: Below Primary Education: Primary pass/middle fail Education: Middle pass/matric fail Education: Matric Education: Intermediate/College no degree Education: Graduate or equivalent Education: Post Graduate Education: Professional degrees and Higher research Caste: OBC Caste: SC/ST Religion: Muslim Religion: Other Adults in Household Children in Household Wave: Wave:

4 Non Literate Below Primary Primary pass/middle fail Middle pass/matric fail Matric Intermediate/College no degree Graduate or equivalent Post Graduate Professional degrees/higher research Figure 1: Effect of education on vote intention for AAP (red), BJP (blue), INC (green) and other candidates (purple). Predicted probabilities with all other variables held at their mean or mode, with 95 percent confidence intervals. 4

5 Figure 2: Location of rural (red) and urban (black) polling booths in Delhi. The green dot locates the city center (Connaught Place). 5

6 Table 3: Descriptive statistics of polling station-wise results, full sample (10,848 observations). Mean Std. Dev. Min Max Percent INC Percent AAP Percent BJP Percent Other Percent under Percent over Percent Female Index Muslim Population SC/ST Constituency Distance to Connaught Place Table 4: Dirichlet regression analysis of distance to city center on polling booth results. Baseline: INC. Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(> z ) BJP: Intercept Distance to Connaught Place AAP: Intercept Distance to Connaught Place Other: Intercept Distance to Connaught Place

7 Table 5: Dirichlet regression analysis of distance to city center on polling booth results, including all controls. Baseline: INC. Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(> z ) BJP: Intercept Percent under Percent over Percent Female Index Muslim Population SC/ST Constituency Distance to Connaught Place AAP: Intercept Percent under Percent over Percent Female Index Muslim Population SC/ST Constituency Distance to Connaught Place Other: Intercept Percent under Percent over Percent Female Index Muslim Population SC/ST Constituency Distance to Connaught Place

8 Figure 3: Effect of distance to Connaught Place (city center) in radian degrees on predicted vote share for AAP (red), BJP (blue), INC (green) and other candidates (purple), Based on model with full set of controls. All control variables held at their mean or mode, with 95 percent confidence intervals. 8

9 Table 6: Descriptive statistics of polling station-wise results, urban sample (9,106 observations). Mean Std. Dev. Min Max Percent INC Percent AAP Percent BJP Percent Other Percent under Percent over Percent Female Index Muslim Population SC/ST Constituency Avg. Distance 5 nearest PS

10 Table 7: Dirichlet regression analysis of urban polling booth results. Baseline: INC. Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(> z ) BJP: Intercept Percent under Percent over Percent Female Index Muslim Population SC/ST Constituency Avg. Distance 5 nearest PS Avg. Distance 5 nearest PS Squared AAP: Intercept Percent under Percent over Percent Female Index Muslim Population SC/ST Constituency Avg. Distance 5 nearest PS Avg. Distance 5 nearest PS Squared Other: Intercept Percent under Percent over Percent Female Index Muslim Population SC/ST Constituency Avg. Distance 5 nearest PS Avg. Distance 5 nearest PS Squared

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