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1 ! Japanese8Swiss Science and Technology Programme Young& Researchers& Exchange& Programme& between& Japan& and& Switzerland& Scientific&&&Financial&Report! ProjectNo. EG09N2014 Projecttitle Young Researchers Exchange Programme between Japan and Switzerland2014 Fellowshipperiod SwissPrincipalInvestigator/Host JapaneseFellow Prof.Dr.StefanWiemer,SwissSeismologicalService, ETHZurich Dr.YusukeMUKUHIRA 1. Summaryofscientificachievements(max½page*incl.pictures,suitableforpublication) Dr. Yusuke Mukuhira, Japanese fellow and Prof. Stefan Wiemer, Swiss Principal Investigator conducted statistical analysis of aftershock sequence at Basel EGS project to understandthestatisticalcharacteristicsofaftershock.thiscancontributemuchonseismic riskassessmentatthehydraulicstimulation.weusedomorinutsulawwhichiswellknown seismostatisticalmodeltodescribetheaftershockdecayprocessofnaturalseismicity.we successfullywereabletomodelaftershocksequenceatbasel.estimatedparameterinomorin Utsulawexplainedthephysicalphenomena.WealsoanalyzedaftershockwithR&Jmodel. Our estimates of time series change of bnvalue showed significant decrease before the occurrenceofthelargesteventofm L 3.4.ButR&Jmodelshowedtheprobabilityofoccurrence ofeventswithm L >3.0werearound0.1,suggestingthatitwasquitedifficulttoforecastthe largest event at Basel and neither the event with M L >3.0 occurred after one month of the stimulation. 1/5!

2 2. Scientificprojectachievements(max2pages) Objective: Understandingofaftershockbehavioratthehydraulicstimulationiscrucialforseismicrisk assessment at hydraulic stimulation of EGS project. We conducted statistical analysis for BaselaftershocksequencewhichincludesthelargeaftershockofM3onemonthafterthe stimulation. We tried to find the statistical characteristics for better understanding of the physics. Result 1 st workinghypothesis: Doestheaftershocksequencecontinue?Orwhenisitover/wasitover?BasedonOmoriN Utsulaw. " WholeaftershocksequencewasfittedwithOmoriNUtsulawandparametersofOmoriNUtsulawwere estimated.wholeaftershocksequenceatbaselcanbemodeledbysingleomorinutsulaw,thoughthe observeddatadeviatedfrommodel.(fig.1) " Wedividedaftershock sequenceinto 3terms (three branches) according to the deviation from the OmoriNUtsumodelforwholesequence.WeestimatedOmoriNUtsuparametersforeachbranches.We hadsmalleraicwhenaftershocksequencewasdividedintothreetermsthanthatofsingleomorin Utsulaw.Wehadverygoodfitforeachbranches.(Fig.2) " AftershocksequenceatBaselcanbemodeledbythreebranchwhichhasdifferentseriesparameters, whichthereshouldbedifferentmechanismtotriggertheaftershock. " Durationofthirdbranchwas8983.5days(24.6years).Thissuggestedthattheseismicactivitystill lastedmore15years.(fig.2) 2ndworkinghypothesis: CouldthelargeeventsM>3.0intheaftershocksequencebeexpected? " WeusedtheResenberg&Jonesmodel(combinationofOmoriNUtsuandGRlaw).WeusedthebNvalue andomorinutsuparametersestimatedfrom1)wholeaftershocksequence,2)every0.1dayorevery 1dayin0.1N1dayperiodand1N10000dayperiodrespectively. " Usingtheseparameters,weestimatedoccurrencerate/probabilityoftheeventsM>3.0innextoneday andtheoccurrencetime/probabilitywerecomparedwiththeobservationoftheeventswithm>3.0. " ForconstantbNvalueandOmoriNUtsuparameters,wehadhighprobability/occurrencerate,ex.0.55of probabilityat0.1dayfromthestimulation.butitdecreasedexponentiallywiththeelapsedtime. " FromthetimeserieschangeofbNvalue,itstartedaround1.5andstartedtodecreasesince0.3day. Thelargesteventoccurredaround0.7day.SobNvaluedecreasedbeforetheoccurrenceofthelargest event. " TheprobabilityoftheeventsM>3at0.1daywererelativelyhigh,beingmorethan0.2. " Probability/occurrenceratestayedsamelevelfrom0.1~1daymorethan0.01andthendecreased lineallyinlogarithmto10days. Conclusions " AftershocksequenceatBaselcanbemodeledbythreebranchedmodelratherthansingleOmoriN Utsulaw.Foreachthreebranchedperiods,decayratesoftheaftershockarealsodifferent,suggesting thattheresponsibleparameter/mechanismtotriggertheinducedseismicityarealsodifferenttoo. " According to the OmoriNUtsu law, the duration of third branch was days and aftershock sequencelongsmore24.6years. " TheprobabilityofthelargeeventwithM>3.0at0.1dayaftershutNin was 0.1,suggestingthatwe cannotsaythatlargeeventswerenotexpectable.theprobabilityoftheothereventwithm.3.0isless than therefore,wecanconcludethatthiseventcannotbeexpectedfromthepointofviewof seismostatistics.however,atthatperiod,theprobabilityisslightlyincreasing.!!!!!!!!!06/14!!!!2/5!

3 Fig.1:VirtualfittingofOmoriNUtsulawforwholeaftershocksequence Fig.2:VisualfittingofOmoriNUtsulawforthreebranch Fig.3Durationtimeestimatedfromthreebranchmodel!!!!!!!!!06/14!!!!3/5!

4 3. Partnership IstheexchangebasedonanexistingpartnershipbetweentheJapaneseandSwissresearchgroups? OurresearchgroupinJapanwasingoodrelationshipwithETHscientistsofpreviousgeneration workingforgeothermaldevelopment.soicontactedoneofthem,thentheyintroducedmemyhost scientist.butnow,wedon thaveofficialcorroborationandwearesomehowacompetitiverelationship withswissresearchgroups,butnotnegativerival.sometimes,wesharedtheinformationonresearch andinsights.formyself,individuallyihavebeenkeepingverygoodrelationshipwithyoungscientists andph.dstudentinethsincewhenistayedeththreeweekswheniwasph.dstudent. Didthecooperationbetweenfellowandhostgowell? Honestly,Ifeelthatitdidnotgowellatall.IcouldnotconducttheresearchwhichIplanedtodoin proposal.hostscientistgavemeonlycoupleoftimetohaveadiscussion.healwaysignoredmy toaskappointmentandcancelleddiscussionwithmesuddenly.finally,herejectedmyoffertopublish theresultofstudyatethaftericamebacktojapansincethequalityofthedatatheyprovidedmein Marchwasnotenoughtodosomethingscientifically.Heneverexplainedhowthedataisnotgood.My scientificadviser(differentpersonofhostscientist)didnotthinkthatthequalityofthedataisbadand heagreedtopublishourresult. WilltherebeacontinuedcollaborationafterthereturnhomeoftheJapanesefellow? IofferedfurthercollaborationstudyafterIcamebacktoJapan.Butmyhostscientistneverrepliedmy asusual.therefore,ioriginallyofferedcollaborationstudywithmyscientificadviserateth,which heisverykindandfairperson. 4. Please describe how the Swiss host and Japanese fellow have benefited from this exchange Frommyside,Icouldlearnnewscientificperspective.Beforethisprogram,Iconductedmyresearchwith deterministicway.butididstatisticalanalysisatetheventhoughidon twanttodothat.duetothehelpofmy researchadviser,ifoundveryinterestedinthestatisticswhichisthedifferentwaytolookatnaturalphenomena. IfeelthatIcoulddevelopmyskillandscientificview. FromthesideofSwisshostscientist,Ireallydon tknowwhattheygot.butihadtoleaveanalysiscodewhich I originally made due to agreement. Maybe it can help them to conduct statistical analysis on aftershock sequenceofhydraulicstimulation. 5. Outlook Nothing. 6. ListofPublications Nopublicationisexpectedbecausemyhostscientistrejectedmyoffertopublishpaper. 7. Miscellaneous Doyouexpectanypatentscomingoutofthisproject? No.Ourresearchispuregeoscience.Nopatentscanbeexpected. Dotheresultsofthisprojecthavecommercialpotential?Doyouthinktherecouldbeanindustrialpartner involvedinthisprojectinthenextphase? No.Ourresearchispuregeoscience.Nopatentscanbeexpected. 8. Suggestionsforthenextphaseoftheexchangeprogramme Ireallyrecommendtojointhegroupwhichisgoodrelationshipwithfellowandhe/hersupervisor.Itis alsoimportanttoevaluateourexchangeprogramfairlybythirdparty.fortheguestscientist,fellowhaving!!!!!!!!!06/14!!!!4/5!

5 theirsalarycanbefreehumanresource.inmycaseitworkedinnotgoodway.iwasnotimportanttothem. Butthiskindofthingsshouldnotbegoodthingsforeveryone. Butmyexperiencewasnotmeaninglessatall.We,Japanesescientistsillhaslowevaluationintermsof communicationskill,workingstyleandlessassertiveandsometimeswemightsufferdiscrimination.ifwe surviveglobalacademia,thesearethechallengewehavetoovercome. 9. Financialreport Please include a copy of the account report from your financial department concerning this project. Originalreceiptsneednotaccompanythisfinancialreport.However,pleasekeeptheoriginalreceipts for5yearsaftertheprojecthasfinished. Iattachedthefinancialreportswhichwasprovidedbythepersoninchargefinancialmatteringroup Ijoined. 10.Appendix(pleaseattachanyadditionaldocumentationsuchaspicturesorlinkstomediacoverage)!!!!!!!!!06/14!!!!5/5!

6 Finanzen & Controlling Abteilung Rechnungswesen Zürich, Fondsauszug Januar bis August 2015 Buchungszeitraum bis Buchungsjahr 2015 Ihr Fonds auf einen Blick Fondsnummer EG _Mukuhira Finanzstelle Schweiz. Erdbebendienst (SED) Bereich T0022 T-Bereich VP Forschung & Wirtschaftsbez. Budgetverantwortliche/r Stefan Wiemer Stv. Budgetverantwortliche/r Florian Haslinger Fondsinhaber/in Administrator/in 1 Sabine Brühwiler Administrator/in 2 Elisabeth Läderach Gutschriften und Belastungen im Buchungszeitraum CHF Saldo per zu Ihren Gunsten 0.00 Total der Gutschriften 13, Total der Belastungen 14, Saldo per zu Ihren Lasten Wir bitten Sie, die beiliegenden Dokumente zu prüfen. Diese gelten als richtig anerkannt, sofern uns Beanstandungen nicht innerhalb Monatsfrist mitgeteilt werden (vgl. Art. 59 Abs. 3 Finanzreglement). Bei Fragen steht Ihnen gerne Ihr/e Kundenberater/in, Herr Pasquale Nigro, per Telefon unter oder pasquale.nigro@fc.ethz.ch zur Verfügung. Freundliche Grüsse Abteilung Rechnungswesen Seite 1

7 Finanzen & Controlling Abteilung Rechnungswesen Fondsauszug Januar bis August 2015 Fondsnummer: Buchungszeitraum: bis Budgetverantwortliche/r: Stefan Wiemer Buchungsjahr: 2015 Erstellungsdatum: Kreditor/Debitor Referenz / Buchungstext Belegnummer Buchungsdatum Belegdatum Sachkonto Ausgaben- bzw. Einnahmenart Whrg Betrag Fremdwhrg Belastung in CHF Gutschrift in CHF Fondssaldo in CHF Saldo per zu Ihren Gunsten MITTEL ZM-DMittel Transfer 13, , Mittelverschiebung z.l Mukuhira Yusuke REIMBURSEMENT Flugreisen 1, , , xxxxxx Löhne/Gehälter 2, , xxxxxx Löhne/Gehälter 2, , xxxxxx Löhne/Gehälter 2, , xxxxxx Löhne/Gehälter 2, , xxxxxx Löhne/Gehälter 2, , xxxxxx Löhne/Gehälter 2, Mukuhira Yusuke REIMBURSEMENT Flugreisen Additionen 14, , Saldo per zu Ihren Lasten Seite 2