Market Analysis. Eastern Michigan University

Transcription

1 Market Analysis Eastern Michigan University Submitted to: Dr. Susan W. Martin President Eastern Michigan University 202 Welch Hall Ypsilanti, MI Phone: September, 2012

2 Contents 1. Executive Summary 1 2. Background Introduction Data Notes Study Regions 2.4 Education Program to Occupation Crosswalk 5 3. Economic Baseline Demographics Industry Demand Historical Trends Industry Mix Occupation Mix Projected Growth Labor Force Regional Industries Occupation Needs Occupation Gaps Training Gaps Supply and Demand by Education Level Training Concentration by Occupation Groups High-Growth, High-Wage Occupations Market Share For Select Occupations Education, Training, and Library Occupations Management Occupations Business and Financial Operations Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media Occupations Community and Social Services Occupations Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Occupations STZEM-Related Occupations All Other Occupation Groups Market Share Analysis and Primary Competitors Regional Market Share Analysis Regional Market Share Analysis Market Share in the Core Region Market Share Oakland County 46 Market Analysis Eastern Michigan University

3 1. Executive Summary 1. Executive Summary The regional economies most important to Eastern Michigan University (EMU) are the southeastern Michigan (core) region and a multi-state (expanded) region that includes most of Michigan, northwestern Ohio, and northeastern Indiana. This report examines the occupation needs of these regions, especially among occupations most relevant to a higher education institution such as EMU. In general, the economies in both of these regions core and expanded are marked by slow employment growth, gradual population loss, and market saturation in most aspects of post-secondary education. In short, this is a hyper-competitive market, with a dozen very large institutions holding the preponderance of the region s market share and only limited opportunities for a college or university to expand aggressively. Employment growth in the two regions has lagged employment growth in the nation as a whole over the past ten years, and employment growth is projected to average only 0.4% per year over the next decade less than one-third of the national rate. The share of older workers will increase in both regions. Over the next decade, Deloitte and Chmura forecasts that 183 occupations will have wages higher than the median wage in both regions and are simultaneously projected to grow faster than overall job growth. Close to half of these occupations are in the education and healthcare sectors, while another quarter of these jobs are positions reliant on science, technology, engineering and math. STEM+ occupations are likely to grow about 30% faster than non-stem+ jobs over the next decade. EMU s market share has held steady in both regions over the past ten years. EMU awarded 4.8% of bachelor s degrees in the Expanded Region and 9% in the Core Region in compare to 4.4% in the Expanded Region and 8.6% in the Core Region in EMU s share of the master s degrees awarded has grown modestly from 4.4% in the Expanded Region and 6.8% in the Core Region in to 4.7% in the Expanded Region and 7.5% in Core Region in Overall, in the past decade both regions have seen stagnation in the production of master s degrees and steep growth in doctoral programs; this suggests what market space exists in the postgraduate area is in master s degree programs. In 2011, EMU had an overall market share in the Core Region of 8.6% for bachelor s degrees, 7.5% for master s degrees, and less than 0.5% market share of doctoral degrees. In the Expanded Region, EMU awarded 4.4% of bachelor s degrees and 4.7% of the master s degrees. EMU boasts slightly higher market share for degrees at all levels that feed into the subset of high-growth, high-wage occupations compared to overall market share. Roughly 72% of EMU bachelor s degree recipients, 70% of its master s degree recipients, and 84% of its doctoral degree recipients earned degrees that would feed into at least one of the 183 high-growth, high-wage occupations identified. The EMU market regions are mature in postsecondary education, producing an average-to-above-average volume of awards and the type of awards that are reasonably aligned with the local economies. On a per capita basis, the EMU Core Region produces about the same number of four-year postsecondary awards as the nation and an above average number of postgraduate awards. The Expanded Region is roughly similar to the nation in both. For the major occupation groups that receive postsecondary training, the Core Region produces postsecondary training at an above-average pace compared to the nation for all except the following: Market Analysis Eastern Michigan University 1

4 1. Executive Summary management occupations (for which the region is about 2% under par) and healthcare practitioners and technical occupations as well as community and social service occupations (for which the region is about 9% below the national pace of award production). Training for education occupations is competitive in both the core and expanded regions and award production has been dropping in the Core Region. Niche growth opportunities, however, may exist: Training specific to preschool and kindergarten teachers has been slowly trending upward. Training for career/technical education teachers has low volume in the region and also may be an opportunity to grow. Training volume for management occupations is only slightly under par in the region. EMU s market share for these occupations is about 7%, and there may be room for growth among programs that are linked with the occupation: general and operations managers. For business and financial operations occupations, the market in the Core Region is fairly tight. EMU s market share is about 7% for these occupations. Regarding community and social services occupations, EMU has a 9% market share, and overall award production in the Core Region is under par for these occupations. Award output in both psychology and social services has been expanding in the Core Region. Though EMU s market share for healthcare practitioners and technical occupations is a relatively small 3.6%, though this is a field that is fast growing. Opportunities for growth exist here for such occupations as registered nurses, speech-language pathologists, and physician assistants for which EMU is already planning on introducing a program. Oakland, Wayne, and Genessee counties are hypercompetitive and well aligned towards high-growth, highwage occupations. Market space exists at both the bachelor s level and graduate level in the greater Traverse City region. The smaller markets of Jackson, Livingston, Macomb, Monroe, and St. Clair counties, as well as the greater Fish Lake region have some market space at the postgraduate master s level. The University of Michigan (all campuses, UoM), Michigan State University (MSU), and the University of Toledo (UoT) have moved the most aggressively into online program offerings. UoM and MSU have focused their online resources mainly on graudate level courses, while UoT has the most extensive online offerings at the undergraduate level. Central Michigan University has sought market share through geographic diversity. Online programs are associated with holding market share and may increase profitability, but have not consistently led to sustained gains in market share. Twelve 2+2 programs leverage EMU s core strengths, feed into high-growth, high-wage jobs, could be marketed in all of EMU s key markets, and should have sufficient demand to justify the creation of a specialized program. Some the largest potential to create 2+2 program while simultaneously leveraging EMU s existing strengths would be in the fields of paralegal studies, art, and social work. International students represent a growing marketing opportunity for EMU. The population of foreign students has been expanding rapidly, especially from Asian countries such as China and India. While foreign students are especially attracted to the field of engineering, not a core area of strength at EMU, international student interests do align with other programs of study at EMU including business, physical sciences, and health care whereby EMU can expand enrollment if it were to expand and approach national norms in foreign student participation. Market Analysis Eastern Michigan University 2

5 1. Executive Summary Analysis of the occupation degree level mix and EMU s program offerings suggests master s degree programs in journalism, speech and language pathology, geography and earth science, and public relations and image management should be considered. Market Analysis Eastern Michigan University 3

6 2. Background 2. Background 2.1. Introduction This report was borne from Eastern Michigan University (EMU) seeking data and analysis to help their strategic planning council examine (1) competitiveness, (2) current products, (3) new products, and (4) opportunities in both the online and foreign student markets. High-growth, high-wage occupations are identified in this report as a means of framing the analysis. This study is to provide guidance on determining programs and degrees that would contribute to an overall product strategy. The labor market and educational degree study is structured so it can build upon EMU s existing strengths Data Notes Employment and wage data used in this report are derived from JobsEQ, 1 Chmura s proprietary database and economic analysis system. These employment and wage data are primarily based upon the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Where necessary, data are imputed by the JobsEQ system. In addition, data are brought forward two quarters using contemporaneous alternative data sources. Employment and wage data in this report are thus as of the second quarter of Occupation data are crossed over using the JobsEQ industry/occupation crosswalk, a variation on the national industry/occupation crosswalk from the BLS. Occupation employment data are based upon a four-quarter moving average as of the latest industry data (2012 quarter 2). Occupation wage data are from the Occupation Employment Statistics program and are as of For occupations, this report uses the 2010 Standard Occupational Classification (SOC). The 2010 revision of the 2000 codes, regarding the collection of certain data, is still in progress. Thus, several temporary codes are being used during the transition from 2000 SOC to 2010 SOC; these occupation titles are marked with an asterisk. Other data used in the report originated from EMU (such as current enrollment statistics), the National Center for Education Statistics (for awards data, latest as of the academic year), and other sources as noted in the text Study Regions This report focuses on several distinct geographic areas that are important to EMU s future growth and competitive landscape. The regions were chosen and definitions were developed by both EMU and Chmura. The primary two regions of analysis represent the broad market areas of EMU a narrow immediate market area and a more comprehensive, wider area with the region definitions based upon a residency analysis of EMU students and alumni. These regions are a 15-county EMU Core Region and a 94-county EMU 1 JobsEQ is Copyright 2012, Chmura Economis & Anlaytics. All rights reserved. JobsEQ is protected by U.S. Patent 7,480,659; and patents pending. Market Analysis Eastern Michigan University 4

7 2. Background Expanded Region. The Core Region is focused on southeastern Michigan, including one county in Ohio. The Expanded Region includes all of mainland Michigan (excluding the Upper Peninsula) as well as northwestern Indiana and northeastern Ohio. Figure 2.1: EMU Core Region Figure 2.2: EMU Expanded Region In addition to these two main geographic areas which are the main focus of the report EMU identified several sub-regions for specific market share analysis, including: Oakland County and Pontiac, Michigan; Wayne County, Detroit, and Livonia; Genesee County and Flint; Jackson, Macomb, St. Clair, Monroe, and Livingston counties; as well as the 6-county greater Fish Lake region and a 7-county greater Traverse City region Education Program to Occupation Crosswalk The education program to occupation crosswalk methodology description refers to the analyses used in sections IV and V. Market Analysis Eastern Michigan University 5

8 2. Background Training programs are classified according to the Classification of Instructional Programs (CIP codes). For relating training programs, this report uses a modified version of the CIP to SOC crosswalk from the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES). 2 While this is a very helpful crosswalk for estimating occupation production from training program awards data, the crosswalk is neither perfect nor comprehensive. Indeed, it is hard to imagine such a crosswalk being perfect since many training program graduates for one reason or another do not end up employed in occupations that are most related to the training program from which they graduated. Therefore, the education program analyses should be considered in this light. As an example of the many scenarios that may unfold, consider a journalism degree that crosswalks into three occupations: editors, writers, and postsecondary communications teachers. Graduates with a journalism degree may get a job in one of these occupations and that may be the most-likely scenario but a good number of these graduates may get a job in a different occupation altogether (the job may be somewhat related, such as a reporter, or the job may be totally unrelated, such as a real estate agent). Furthermore, a graduate may stay in school or go back to school for a degree that will lead to other occupation possibilities. Still another possibility includes the graduate not entering the labor market (maybe being unemployed, being a non-participant, or moving to another region). Given this background, training concentration gaps that are close to the average value of 100% (such as within 10 percentage points) should largely be viewed as having supply and demand for those occupations to be roughly in equilibrium. However, in areas where the training concentration is significantly lower (such as below 75%), one can infer a substantial deficit of training for this occupation exists that corresponds to a market opportunity. 2 See: Modifications were made to this crosswalk by Chmura based on alternative data sources including the American Community Survey. Market Analysis Eastern Michigan University 6

9 3. Economic Baseline 3. Economic Baseline This section provides details on the economic environment in which Eastern Michigan University operates. These data aid in understanding the current labor market in historical context as well as providing the basis for projecting future economic activity especially as it pertains to the labor market and the impact on occupations likely to be filled by EMU graduates Demographics The population of the EMU Core Region is older and slower-growing than that of the nation, but includes a higher percentage of postgraduate degree holders. The population of the Core Region was 6.3 million in 2010, contracting an average 0.2% per year over the previous decade. By comparison, the population of the Expanded Region was nearly flat over the decade while the population of the nation grew at a 0.9% pace. The median age of Core Region residents was 38.3 years in 2010, similar to the 38.4 average age in the Expanded Region but higher than the 37.2 average age in the nation. However, the percentage of individuals under age 25 is similar between the EMU regions and the nation. 3 In educational attainment, the EMU Core Region has a higher percentage of adult population (age 25 and up) with a postgraduate degree (10.7%) compared to the nation (10.3%). The Core Region also has a higher percentage with an associate s degree (7.8% compared to 7.5%) but a smaller percentage with a bachelor s (16.2% compared to 17.6%). The Expanded Region has smaller percentages with bachelor s and postgraduate degrees, but has a higher percentage of associate s degree holders than the nation. Among other demographic indicators, the poverty level is higher in both the EMU Core Region (15.0%) and the Expanded Region (14.6%) than in the nation (13.8%). Labor force participation rates are also lower in the market regions surrounding EMU: 63.6% in the Core Region, 63.9% in the Expanded Region, and 65.0% in the nation. The median household income, however, is fairly similar both in the Core Region and the nation, estimated at $51,416 in the EMU Core Region compared to $51,914 in the nation. 3 The under-18 cohort comprised 23.9% of the population in the Core Region, 24.1% in the Expanded Region, and 24.0% in the nation. The cohort accounted for 9.8% of the population in both EMU regions and 9.9% in the nation. Market Analysis Eastern Michigan University 7

10 3. Economic Baseline Figure 3.1: Demographic Profile* EMU Core Region Percent EMU Expanded Region USA EMU Core Region Value EMU Expanded Region Population ,319,038 11,985, ,745,538 Annual Average Growth, % 0.0% 0.9% -14, ,732,094 Median Age (estimate) Race and Ethnicity White 73.1% 79.9% 72.4% 4,616,069 9,574, ,553,265 Black or African-American 19.8% 13.3% 12.6% 1,248,378 1,594,357 38,929,319 American Indian and Alaska Native 0.4% 0.5% 0.9% 23,231 54,980 2,932,248 Asian 3.1% 2.2% 4.8% 196, ,912 14,674,252 USA Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 1,501 3, ,013 Some Other Race 1.3% 1.8% 6.2% 80, ,012 19,107,368 Two or More Races 2.4% 2.3% 2.9% 152, ,453 9,009,073 Hispanic or Latino (of any race) 4.1% 4.9% 16.3% 262, ,605 50,477,594 Labor Force (population 16 years and over)** 63.6% 63.9% 65.0% 3,188,411 6,040, ,163,977 Armed Forces Labor Force** 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 3,297 6,740 1,126,503 Median Household Income** (estimate) $51,416 $49,016 $51,914 Poverty Level (of all people)** 15.0% 14.6% 13.8% 939,286 1,714,883 40,917,513 Educational Attainment (25 years and over) No High school Diploma 12.1% 12.3% 15.0% 507, ,287 29,898,483 High School Graduate 29.7% 32.4% 29.0% 1,247,001 2,558,841 57,903,353 Some College, No Degree 23.5% 22.9% 20.6% 987,717 1,814,308 41,175,904 Associate's Degree 7.8% 8.1% 7.5% 329, ,707 15,021,920 Bachelor's Degree 16.2% 15.1% 17.6% 680,557 1,194,155 35,148,428 Postgraduate Degree 10.7% 9.2% 10.3% 448, ,101 20,578,571 *Source: Census 2010, unless noted otherwise **Source: American Community Survey, Source: JobsEQ 3.2. Industry Demand Historical Trends Employment growth is the broadest and timeliest indicator of a region s overall economic health. Over the past decade (the ten years ending with the second quarter of 2012), the market area of EMU contended with one of the most challenging downturns in the nation, driven predominantly by struggles among domestic auto manufacturers. Employment contracted an annualized average 1.4% in the Core Region and 1.0% in the Expanded Region compared to a 0.2% pace of expansion in the nation. In the Core Region, employment was Market Analysis Eastern Michigan University 8

11 3. Economic Baseline in year-over-year decline from 2002 through the first quarter of Since the second quarter of 2010, employment in the region has been growing faster than in the nation. Figure 3.2: Employment Growth, Percent Change, Year-Over-Year 4.0 USA EMU Expanded Region EMU Core Region Q1 2005Q1 2008Q1 2011Q Note: shaded areas represent recessions. Source: JobsEQ and the Bureau of Labor Statistics Though employment has been growing in the Core Region over the past couple years, the employment level is in the process of trying to recover job losses incurred previously, especially during the recession. Figure 3.3 illustrates job growth indexed to the troughs experienced due to the last recession. Though the EMU market regions have been posting better growth since their troughs, in reality, these regions have more ground to make up. Figure 3.3: Employment, Four-Quarter Moving Average, Index: Trough = EMU Core Region EMU Expanded Region USA Q1 2005Q1 2008Q1 2011Q1 95 Note: shaded areas represent recessions Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Chmura Economics & Analytics The EMU market areas have had above-average unemployment rates in the nation since In the EMU Market Analysis Eastern Michigan University 9

12 3. Economic Baseline Core Region, the unemployment rate dropped to as low as 3.4% (seasonally adjusted) in 2000, but climbed sharply to above 6.0% due to the recession of The unemployment rate remained between 6.0% and 8.0% until the next recession hit at the end of 2007; the unemployment rate in the Core Region soared to 14.9% in 2009 and was above 10% for three years. As of June 2012, the unemployment rate in the EMU Core Region was 9.3% compared to 8.7% in the Expanded Region and 8.2% in the nation. Generally, individuals with higher educational attainment possess more opportunities when seeking jobs and therefore experience lower unemployment rates. This advantage can be exhibited region-wide through an overall lower regional unemployment rate, though such an advantage in educational attainment can be trumped by shattering changes in regional industries. Regardless, even in a region undergoing a sharp transformation, job opportunities are more numerous for those individuals with advanced education that is aligned with the skills and knowledge in demand from local industry. Figure 3.4: Unemployment Rate, Seasonally Adjusted EMU Core Region EMU Expanded Region USA Note: shaded areas represent recessions Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics & Chmura Economics & Analytics As of the second quarter of 2012, the average annual wage per worker in the EMU Core Region was $49,900. This was higher than the national average wage of $48,800 and much higher than the Expanded Region average wage of $44,900. The average wage in the Core Region has been historically higher than the average national wage, though the gap between the two has closed considerably since Differences in cost of living can distort wage comparisons between regions; in this case, however, the estimated cost of living in EMU market regions is not far from that of the nation. 4 Average annual wages per worker in the Core Region grew fairly steadily from 2002 to 2008 until a contraction due to the past recession. From 2002 through 2008, wages grew an annualized average 2.5% in both the Core Region and Expanded Region; but wages in the nation averaged a 3.6% pace over the same period. Due to the recession, wages in the Core Region trended downward from the fourth quarter of 2008 to the first quarter of Since that downturn, however, average wages per worker has grown an annualized average 3.2% in the Core Region, slightly better than the 3.1% pace in the nation. 4 Per JobsEQ, using the US cost of living as a base index of 100, the cost-of-living index is 99.7 in the EMU Core Region and 96.5 in the Extended Region. Market Analysis Eastern Michigan University 10

13 3. Economic Baseline Figure 3.5: Average Annual Wages per Worker $51,000 USA EMU Core Region EMU Expanded Region 2002Q1 2005Q1 2008Q1 2011Q1 $49,000 $47,000 $45,000 $43,000 $41,000 $39,000 $37,000 $35,000 Note: shaded areas represent recessions Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Industry Mix For this section, industries are classified according to the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS). The largest groupings that generally correspond to the 2-digit classification level are termed sectors. Employment data referred to in this section are based upon the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and are presented as a four-quarter moving average ending with the second quarter of Health care and social services is the largest sector in the EMU Core Region, providing 425,900 jobs as of the second quarter of Jobs in this sector vary widely in pay, but the overall average wage in the sector ($47,700 as of the second quarter of 2012) is similar but slightly lower than the average wage among all industries in the market area ($49,900). As will be seen in a latter section, this sector is expected to grow fast in terms of employment. Health care and social services is relatively larger in the Core Region (employing 16.8% of the workforce) compared to the Expanded Region (15.4%) and the nation (14.3%). The professional and business services sector (PBS) is also an area of strength in the Core Region, employing 419,500 workers, the second-most among all sectors. The PBS sector comprises professional, scientific, and technical services; management of companies and enterprises; and administrative and support and waste management and remediation services. Professional and business services employs 16.6% of the EMU Core Region workers compared to 13.4% in the Expanded Region and 13.7% in the nation. This sector has relatively high average wages, and its relatively large size in the Core Region thus boosts the region s overall average wage. Another primary economic driver in the EMU Core Region is the manufacturing sector which employs 11.5% of workers in the area, higher than the 9.1% share in the nation though less than the 15.7% employment share in the Expanded Region. This sector offers higher-than-average wages in the Core Region $70,400 per worker, about 40% above average for the region. This sector includes auto and auto parts manufacturers, which directly employ over a third of manufacturing workers in the EMU Core Region. Market Analysis Eastern Michigan University 11

14 3. Economic Baseline Figure 3.6: Employment Mix by Sector Industry Employment EMU Core Region Average Annual Wages EMU Core Region Percentage of Employment EMU Core Region EMU Expanded Region Health Care and Social Assistance 425,900 $47, % 15.4% 14.3% Professional and Business Services 419,500 $63, % 13.4% 13.7% Manufacturing 291,800 $70, % 15.7% 9.1% Retail 284,400 $27, % 11.4% 11.4% Leisure 248,800 $18, % 10.1% 10.7% Educational Services 223,900 $45, % 9.1% 9.3% Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate 123,300 $62, % 4.5% 5.8% Public Administration 115,000 $58, % 4.2% 5.6% Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities 101,300 $58, % 3.8% 4.5% Wholesale 98,100 $72, % 3.8% 4.3% Other Services 81,400 $28, % 3.1% 3.4% Construction 74,900 $57, % 3.4% 4.4% Information 39,600 $62, % 1.4% 2.1% Natural Resources 4,400 $25, % 0.6% 0.9% Mining 1,200 $58, % 0.1% 0.6% Total 2,533,900 $49, % 100% 100% USA Note: figures may not sum due to rounding; in addition, each region includes jobs that do not have an industry classification. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and JobsEQ Occupation Mix The mix of occupations in the EMU Core Region follows its mix of industries. Occupations are defined according to the Standard Occupational Classification (SOC) with major groups corresponding to the first two digits of the SOC code. The largest major occupation group in the metro area is office and administrative support; while it employs over 420,000 in the region, this is not unusual for an area of its size. The next-largest occupation groups in the Core Region are sales and related as well as food preparation and serving related. The location quotient (LQ) is a relative measure of employment size compared to the nation. An LQ of 1.00 indicates the average job mix found in the nation; an LQ of 1.01 indicates employment is 1% larger than average and an LQ of 0.99 indicates employment is 1% lower than average. Thus, as shown in Figure 3.7, the occupation groups that are especially and unusually large in the Core Region are architectural and engineering (LQ=1.39), production (LQ=1.33), healthcare practitioners and technical (LQ=1.25), and healthcare support (LQ=1.14). Market Analysis Eastern Michigan University 12

15 3. Economic Baseline Figure 3.7: Major Occupation Groups, EMU Core Region, 2012 Quarter 4 SOC Title Employment Average Annual Wages per Worker (2011) Location Quotient Office and Administrative Support 421,632 $30, Sales and Related 255,759 $29, Food Preparation and Serving Related 219,586 $18, Production 219,148 $32, Healthcare Practitioners and Technical 184,096 $63, Transportation and Material Moving 153,446 $28, Education, Training, and Library 146,834 $45, Management 122,114 $90, Business and Financial Operations 117,954 $57, Installation, Maintenance, and Repair 94,076 $39, Healthcare Support 88,755 $24, Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance 81,490 $22, Construction and Extraction 70,912 $39, Personal Care and Service 67,696 $21, Computer and Mathematical 67,142 $70, Architecture and Engineering 63,306 $66, Protective Service 44,506 $34, Community and Social Service 37,906 $37, Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media 31,605 $40, Life, Physical, and Social Science 22,712 $57, Legal 18,737 $83, Farming, Fishing, and Forestry 4,508 $21, The occupation mix in the Expanded Region is fairly different than in the Core Region, partially due to the large number of rural localities in the wider market area. The Expanded Region has a larger concentration in production occupations (LQ=1.67) its second-largest occupation group compared to the Core Region. The Expanded Region also has larger concentrations of jobs in transportation and material moving (LQ=0.99) and construction and extraction occupations (LQ=0.81) and smaller concentrations in the healthcare occupation groups as well as several professional occupation groups: architectural and engineering, computer and mathematical, and business and financial operations Projected Growth Labor Force The labor force of the EMU Core Region is defined as all individuals working within the region, which largely comprises residents of the Core Region, but also includes residents of nearby counties who commute into the region. The growth of labor force in the Core Region is influenced by a variety of factors: population growth, age mix, participation rates, gender mix, and educational attainment mix. In addition, some of these factors interact with one another. Persons with a higher educational attainment, for example, are generally more likely Market Analysis Eastern Michigan University 13

16 3. Economic Baseline to participate in the labor market (that is, be either employed or looking for work) than those with lower educational attainment. Overall industry demand also influences the supply of workers since workers will go where the jobs are located. If job growth in the Core Region is higher than what can be filled by residents who live within commuting distance of the jobs, workers will migrate to fill those positions. Conversely, if the job growth dries up, workers would eventually seek employment elsewhere and possibly emigrate to do so. Over the long-term, such as the ten-year forecast considered here, supply and demand of the labor force is expected to trend towards equilibrium to balance each other. The ten-year baseline forecast used here was developed by Chmura through its JobsEQ analytic system and is based upon historical industry growth trends in the region along with expected population trends, especially among working-age cohorts. According to this forecast, the job base is expected to grow 0.4% per year over the long-term. This pace of growth will be reflected in both the industry demand (examined in the subsequent section) as well as the labor supply (examined here). Within the labor supply in the EMU Core Region, the age mix is expected to shift towards older workers over the next ten years. This is in part due to the aging of the large baby boomer cohort but also in part due to the projected rise in the retirement age. The upshot of this trend is that traditional college-graduate-aged workers are going to form a smaller portion of the overall workforce in the future, plus this same cohort is going to be competing against a more experienced base of workers. The number of workers age 65 and up are expected to grow by over three-quarters in the Core Region, expanding from 4.9% of the workforce in 2012 to 8.3% in This trend will similarly play out in the Expanded Region as well as in the nation. Figure 3.8: EMU Core Region Labor Supply Forecast by Age 1,200,000 1,000, , , , , Source: JobsEQ Another significant trend is an expected increase in the average educational attainment of the workforce. The percentage of the workforce with highest educational attainment of a high school diploma or lower is expected Market Analysis Eastern Michigan University 14

17 3. Economic Baseline to contract in the EMU Core Region over the next ten years. The percentage of workers with a graduate degree is expected to expand from 11.0% in 2012 to 11.9% in 2022 and workers with an associate s degree is forecast to increase from 8.7% to 9.2% over the same period. The percentage of workers with a bachelor s degree in the Core Region, however, is expected to remain at 17.9% over the next ten years, as this cohort is expected to grow, but at the same pace as the overall workforce. The EMU Expanded Region is expected to see a similar pace of growth in its graduate degree workers, but quicker growth in associate s and bachelor s degree holders. Figure 3.9: EMU Core Region Labor Supply Forecast by Educational Attainment 800, , , , , , , ,000 - Less than HS High School Some College Associate's Bachelor's Graduate Source: JobsEQ Of particular relevance to EMU, these demographic trends favor the growth of programs and services that cater to non-traditional students over traditional freshmen. 5 National level analysis by the National Center for Education Statistics indicates that non-traditional students, those over 25 years of age, are epected to grow at twice the rate of traditional students (an age cohort 18-24) over the next decade. 6 In Michigan, where Chmura would expect a likely gradual decline of traditional freshmen over the next decade, the dichotomy in the growth rates between traditional students and non-tradtional student is set to become even starker Regional Industries Industry employment projections in this section are based upon two items: (1) total regional employment projections from JobsEQ, and (2) individual industry projections based upon Bureau of Labor Statistics forecasts for national industries. These industry-specific forecasts are overlaid with the JobsEQ forecast, which 5 Usually defined as a year-old student attending college directly out of high school. 6 Projections of Education Statistics, 39 th Edition. National Center for Education Statistics; September Market Analysis Eastern Michigan University 15

18 3. Economic Baseline is the baseline forecast that incorporates historical trends as well as labor supply growth as influenced by such factors as population growth and participation rates. Overall, employment in the EMU Core Region is projected to expand 0.4% per year over the next ten years (2012 Q2 to 2022 Q2) for the addition of about 107,500 jobs. In addition, there is expected to be over 580,000 job openings due to replacement demand which is the replacement needs for occupations due to turnover such as retirements and workers moving from one occupation to another. 7 By industry, the largest employment needs are projected to be in health care and social assistance, needing about 164,000 workers due to replacements and growth over the next ten years, with a little over half of the total due to growth. The nextlargest need for workers is in professional and business services with total demand of 131,900 employees. Both the trade and leisure sectors are expected to see high occupation demand, though nearly all due to replacement demand. Manufacturing and public administration are expected to decline somewhat in overall employment, but nevertheless will require significant numbers of new workers to fill replacement needs. Figure 3.10: Ten-Year Employment Needs by Industry, Replacements and Growth, EMU Core Region, 2012Q2 Natural Resources and Mining Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities Construction Manufacturing ,200 32,000 27,700 Trade (Retail and Wholesale) 106,500 Information Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate Professional and Business Services Educational Services Health Care and Social Assistance Leisure Other Services Public Administration 6,100 24,100 54,800 76,700 20,000 13, , ,000 Replacements Growth -50, , , , , Occupation Needs The occupation needs in the EMU Core Region over the next ten years are dependent upon the The occupation needs in the EMU Core Region over the next ten years are dependent upon the overall industry growth in the region, how the mix of occupations changes within individual industries, and the replacement needs within occupations. 7 Replacement needs are calculated via replacement rates from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Based on their methodologies, these rates understate the total demand and should be taken as a minimum measure of training needs due to replacements. More on the subject can be read here: Market Analysis Eastern Michigan University 16

19 3. Economic Baseline First, Chmura examines the overarching trend expected in occupation growth in the EMU Core Region. Figure 3.11 illustrate that over the next ten years, the largest three occupation groups by employment demand are all below-average wage groups predominated with generally lower-skilled workers less likely to be collegeeducated: office and administrative support, sales and related, and food preparation and related occupations. The largest occupation groups that comprise generally higher-skilled, college-educated, and above-average wage workers are healthcare practitioners and technical (needing 62,100 workers due to replacement and growth demand over the next ten years) and education, training, and library occupations (needing 37,500 workers over the next ten years). Figure 3.11 Ten-Year Employment Needs by Occupation Group, Replacements and Growth, EMU Core Region, 2012Q2 Office and Administrative Support Sales and Related Food Preparation and Serving Related 73,600 82,000 90,700 Healthcare Practitioners and Technical 62,100 Transportation and Material Moving Education, Training, and Library Healthcare Support Business and Financial Operations Personal Care and Service Production Management Construction and Extraction Installation, Maintenance, and Repair Computer and Mathematical Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance Architecture and Engineering Community and Social Service Protective Service Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media Life, Physical, and Social Science Legal Farming, Fishing, and Forestry 42,700 37,500 32,900 30,600 29,200 28,900 25,000 23,100 22,600 21,400 16,400 15,800 13,300 11,500 9,800 8,000 3,000 1, ,000 40,000 60,000 80, ,000 Drilling down to the level of detailed occupations (the six-digit SOC level where there are nearly 800 detailed occupation titles) we can now examine those jobs most in demand. For the EMU market areas, high-growth, Market Analysis Eastern Michigan University 17

20 3. Economic Baseline high-wage occupations are defined as detailed occupations which have wages above $39,600 and are expected to grow quicker than 0.6% per year. 8 Figure 3.12 lists the twenty largest high-growth, high-wage occupations in the EMU Core Region. The high-growth, high-wage occupations in the EMU Core Region are led by registered nurses which has employment of 71,616 in the region and is expected to need 22,000 new workers (due to replacements and growth) over the coming ten years. Other occupations in healthcare are prominent among the high-growth, high-wage occupations, such as physicians, surgeons, and pharmacists. Other well-represented groups among the high-growth, high-wage occupations are education occupations (such as elementary and middle school teachers) and computer occupations (such as support specialists and software developers). Figure 3.12: Largest Detailed High-Growth, High-Wage Occupations in the EMU Core Region SOC Title Employment Average Annual Wages 2012 Quarter 2 Forecast, 2012Q2 2022Q2 Location Quotient Total Replacement Demand Total Employment Change Average Annual Growth Percent Registered Nurses* 71,616 $62, ,239 10, % Elementary School Teachers, Except Special Education Computer Support Specialists Sales Representatives, Services, All Other Management Analysts Software Developers, Applications Computer Systems Analysts Middle School Teachers, Except Special and Career/Technical Education 21,778 $49, ,532 1, % 12,548 $44, ,155 1, % 10,939 $48, , % 10,579 $74, ,632 1, % 10,461 $83, ,049 2, % 10,068 $74, ,804 1, % 9,871 $49, , % Electricians 9,830 $47, , % Human Resources, Training, and Labor Relations Specialists, All Other* 9,611 $49, , % Civil Engineers 7,792 $72, , % 8 Of the 796 detailed occupations, 183 qualify as high-growth, high-wage in the EMU market areas. Occupations qualify for this definition if they exceed the wage and growth thresholds for either the core or expanded regions. The threshold wage represents the maximum of the average occupation wages in the Core Region and the Expanded Region. The threshold growth rate represents the maximum of the average occupation growth rates in the Core Region and the Expanded Region. Market Analysis Eastern Michigan University 18

21 3. Economic Baseline 2012 Quarter 2 Forecast, 2012Q2 2022Q Software Developers, Systems Software Physicians and Surgeons, All Other Medical and Health Services Managers Network and Computer Systems Administrators Industrial Machinery Mechanics 7,242 $90, , % 7,241 $131, , % 6,981 $81, , % 6,876 $66, ,103 1, % 6,395 $44, , % Pharmacists 6,333 $106, , % Market Research Analysts and Marketing Specialists Plumbers, Pipefitters, and Steamfitters Supervisors of Construction and Extraction Workers Source: JobsEQ 6,057 $57, ,518 1, % 6,000 $46, , % 5,870 $55, , % Occupation Gaps Another way to look at occupation needs is in terms of an occupation gaps analysis. This is a high-level analysis for the long-term forecast window that compares expected growth in occupations with expected supply where the supply model is largely based on general demographic trends including educational attainment of the workforce. Such an analysis can point out where mismatches may occur; for example, if fast demand growth is expected for occupations requiring an associate s degree and the labor force is not expected to grow quickly in its supply of workers with associate s degrees, then a mismatch could occur. The occupation gaps analysis shown in Figure 3.13 indicates occupation groups with potential supply gaps over the next ten years at the top of the chart, and groups with potential excess of supply at the bottom of the chart. In the chart, the numbers next to the bars are annual figures representing the annual supply gap (or surplus if negative) in employment in that occupation group. Market Analysis Eastern Michigan University 19

22 3. Economic Baseline Figure 3.13: Projected Annual Average Occupation Gaps, EMU Core Region, 2012 Q Q2 Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Construction and Extraction Healthcare Support Personal Care and Service Transportation and Material Moving Business and Financial Operations Computer and Mathematical Community and Social Service Installation, Maintenance, and Repair Sales and Related Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media Life, Physical, and Social Science Farming, Fishing, and Forestry Architecture and Engineering Protective Service Management Education, Training, and Library Legal Food Preparation and Serving Related Production Office and Administrative Support -2,800-1,672-1, ,472 1, ,500-3,000-2,500-2,000-1,500-1, ,0001,5002,000 Source: JobsEQ The long-term occupation gap analysis indicates that fast-growing, high-skilled occupation groups have a high potential for developing supply gaps. These groups include healthcare practitioners and technical; business and financial operations; and computer and mathematical occupations. The education level of the EMU Core Region workforce will need to rise in order to keep up with the educational attainment demand due to these expanding occupation groups. According to the model, other occupation groups where supply shortfalls may occur include the fast-growing occupations in healthcare support and construction and extraction occupations. On the other hand, occupation groups with expected surpluses of workers include those that are expected to grow slowly or where the supply is expected to grow more quickly. These occupation groups are led by office and administrative support, production, and food preparation and serving related. Note that the potential gaps presented here are projected and may not actuate given market place changes not anticipated in the modeling. In addition, these gaps do not necessarily comment on the current status of supply and demand for occupations, but rather are based upon a long-term outlook. Finally, these gaps are at the occupation group level and considerable variation may be present within groups; for example, although the education, training, and library occupations group is projected to have a surplus, elementary and middle school teachers are projected to be in demand. Market Analysis Eastern Michigan University 20

23 4. Training Gaps 4. Training Gaps This section is an analysis of the training concentration of the EMU market areas in other words, a look at the postsecondary award output in comparison to that of the nation. To establish a baseline for comparison, award output is measured against occupation demand. For example, if the nation produces one registered nurse graduate for every ten employed nurses, the one-to-ten ratio is the national standard. If a region such as the EMU Core Region produces one registered nurse graduate for every twelve employed nurses, then we conclude the region s output for this occupation is trailing the national rate of production Supply and Demand by Education Level In the academic year, 922,000 postgraduate awards 9 were awarded in the nation, or 3.0 awards per every thousand individuals. This trails the rate found in the EMU Core Region where 22,357 postgraduate awards were granted (by institutions located in the region) at a rate of 3.5 per every thousand individuals. In terms of four-year awards, 10 however, the region is right on par. In the nation for the same academic year, approximately 1.85 million four-year awards were granted, or 6.0 awards per every thousand individuals. By comparison, 37,643 four-year awards were earned in the EMU Core Region in the same academic year, at the same rate of 6.0 per thousand individuals. In the Expanded Region, the pace of four-year awards slightly exceeds that of the nation while postgraduate awards are a bit behind the pace in the nation. Figure 4.1: Postsecondary Awards per Capita, Academic Year Awards per thousand population Four-Year Postgraduate USA EMU Core Region EMU Expanded Region Source: NCES and Chmura Economics & Analytics In general, this analysis alone indicates that both the Core Region and the Extended Region are hypercompetitive, and in most cases are at or near equilibrium in terms of the supply and demand of individuals 9 Postgraduate awards are defined here as master s degrees, post-master s certificates, doctor s degrees, first-professional degrees, and first-professional certificates. 10 Four-year awards are defined here as bachelor s degrees and post-baccalaureate certificates. Market Analysis Eastern Michigan University 21

24 4. Training Gaps with specific degrees. This results in relatively little untapped market space and leaves room for only cautious and modest expansion of programs Training Concentration by Occupation Groups In analyzing occupation training, we first translate the awards by training program into occupation output (as described in Section 2.4) and then calculate the rate of awards per employment. In the nation, the rate of awards per employment is the benchmark, and the regional rate of production is described as a percentage of this benchmark; this percentage is termed the training concentration. For example: if a region s training concentration is 100%, it is producing awards at the same rate as the nation; if a region s training concentration is 50%, it is producing awards at half the national pace. 11 In areas where there exists substantial shortfalls in the training concentration (about 75% or less), we would expect industries to be either drawing applicants from outside their immediate market area or to be hiring individuals that lack the desired occupation-specific skills and background, thus needing to commit to a longer initial training and familiarization period. This strongly indicates that local job-seekers with degrees providing desired occupation skills would have an edge in gaining employment, which in turn should lead to a competitive advantage for those schools offering advanced degrees in these fields. In looking at training concentrations at the occupation group level for the EMU market areas, we see the regions are near or exceeding the national rate of training for the occupation groups most linked with postsecondary education, especially at the four-year level and higher. For example, schools in the Core Region produced 15,528 awards linked with education, training, and library occupations in the academic year, 14% above the national pace. The Core Region trailed the national pace in the occupation groups of management (training concentration of 98%), healthcare practitioners and technical (91%), and community and social services (91%). Of the most popular postsecondary-trained occupation groups, the Expanded Region trailed the national pace only in healthcare practitioners and technical (95%) and life, physical, and social science occupations (98%). Both market areas trailed the nation in most of the occupation groups less associated with postsecondary awards especially four-year and higher awards such as production, food preparation, and sales occupations. Although the market areas may have above average award output at the occupation group level, this does not mean that the regions are necessarily overproducing awards in these groups. It also does not indicate that there is no room for or a need for an expansion in award programs. At the detailed occupation level, there may be award shortfalls, even with occupation groups that do not have an overall gap. In addition, there may be award shortfalls in terms of the level of awards such as, in a specific field, more than enough doctoral awards but an insufficient supply of master s awards. There also may be gaps in service, such as an insufficient supply of online awards for the market, or an insufficient supply of programs available for a niche market such as a targeted Michigan locality or a group such as international students. These types of gaps are explored in the remainder of this report. 11 Note that the national pace (training concentration =100%) is merely a benchmark; while the nation may be producing occupations fairly close to the rate at which those occupations are in demand, the nation may be significantly over- or underproducing in some cases. At the local level, low training concentrations (below 100%) suggest the region may be underservicing training in those cases and as a consequence may be a net importer of those occupations; on the other hand, high training concentrations (above 100%) suggest the region may be producing a surplus of training and thus may be an exporter of talent for those occupations. Regardless, wherever possible, these analyses should be further validated with first-hand data, such as surveys and interviews with regional graduates and employers, so the unique dynamics of the local job market may be better understood. Market Analysis Eastern Michigan University 22

25 4. Training Gaps Figure 4.2: Training Concentration by Occupation Groups, EMU Market Areas SOC Title Education, Training, and Library Employment, 2012Q2 Postsecondary Awards, Training Concentration, Core Region Training Concentration, Expanded Region 146,834 15, % 110% Management 122,114 11,672 98% 106% Healthcare Practitioners and Technical 184,096 11,549 91% 95% Healthcare Support 88,755 8, % 115% Business and Financial Operations 117,954 6, % 136% Architecture and Engineering 63,306 6, % 109% Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media Community and Social Service 31,605 5, % 121% 37,906 4,187 91% 101% Computer and Mathematical 67,142 3, % 130% Life, Physical, and Social Science 22,712 3, % 98% Personal Care and Service 67,696 3, % 113% Office and Administrative Support 421,632 3, % 132% Legal 18,737 2, % 159% Protective Service 44,506 2, % 135% Installation, Maintenance, and Repair Food Preparation and Serving Related 94,076 2,060 83% 68% 219, % 73% Production 219, % 42% Construction and Extraction 70, % 65% Sales and Related 255, % 83% Transportation and Material Moving Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance Farming, Fishing, and Forestry 153, % 35% 81, % 71% 4, % 52% Crosswalking EMU awards into occupations for the academic year models that the university produced awards linked to 4,733 occupations. Close to half of the awards crosswalked into one of two occupation groups: education, training, and library (30%) and management (18%). The next-largest occupation groups by EMU awards were business and financial operations (11%); arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media (9%); community and social service (8%); and healthcare practitioners and technical (8%). Thus, of the top six occupation groups, three are groups with overall below-average training concentrations in the Core Region, implying more overall room for expansion: management, community and social service, and healthcare practitioners and technical. Moreover, none of the top six occupation groups produced from EMU correspond with the most award-saturated groups in the Core Region such as legal and healthcare support occupations. Market Analysis Eastern Michigan University 23

26 4. Training Gaps Figure 4.3: EMU Awards by Occupation Group, Protective Service 2% Computer and Mathematical Life, Physical, and 3% Social Science 5% Healthcare Practitioners and Technical 8% Architecture and Engineering 2% Other 4% Education, Training, and Library 30% Community and Social Service 8% Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media 9% Business and Financial Operations 11% Management 18% 4.3. High-Growth, High-Wage Occupations Postsecondary institutions in the EMU Core Region granted a total 92,697 post-secondary awards in the academic year that directly crosswalked into an established occupation. Approximately 54,500 awards fed naturally into one of the high-growth, high-wage occupations (as defined in Section of this report). 12 In aggregate, the high-growth, high-wage occupations had a training concentration of 111% in the Core Region, meaning the region is producing graduates in these occupations at about 11% above the average pace in the nation. All other occupations in the Core Region had an aggregate 109% training concentration, meaning the regional postsecondary education institutions have program offerings that are slightly skewed in favor of the region s high-growth, high-wage occupations. The postsecondary program awards output in the Extended Region is even more skewed towards the high-growth, high-wage occupations with a training concentration of 112% for these occupations compared to 101% for all other occupatons. 12 These awards were all postsecondary degrees associate s degrees, bachelor s, master s, and doctoral level. Also see footnote 11 for further clarification. Market Analysis Eastern Michigan University 24

27 4. Training Gaps Figure 4.4: Training Concentration for High-Growth, High-Wage Occupations, U.S. Average High-Growth, High-Wage Occupations 111% 112% Core Region Expanded Region All Other Occupations 101% 109% 0% 50% 100% Source: Chmura Economics & Analytics For the academic year, of Eastern Michigan University produced 4,556 awards that crosswalked into a detailed occupation. Of these EMU awards, 56% crosswalked into high-growth, high-wage occupation. 13 By comparison, 41% of postsecondary awards in the Core Region crosswalked into a high-growth, high-wage occupation. Thus, by this broad measure, EMU has a favorable alignment with local industry needs, more so than the region s postsecondary institutions overall. When evaluated in terms of market share, EMU s training alignment with high-growth, high-wage jobs is even more dramatic: EMU accounted for 6.6% of high-growth, high-wage occupation awards in the Core Region in the academic year compared to 3.7% of awards for all other occupations. This report also highlights degrees that naturally feed into a STEM+ grouping occupation, which represent occupations associated with a degree and understanding of science, technology, engineering and math (STEM). The STEM+ definition utilized in this report covers traditional STEM occupations but also includes occupations that are math and science-heavy in the healthcare and business fields hence the STEM plus designation that ultimately encompasses 188 occupations (see appendix for the full SOC-based listing/definition). It is worth highlighting that job placement and initial salary trends highly favor degrees in the STEM fields. 14,15 Similarly, Chmura estimates that STEM+ occupations will grow 30% greater per year over the 13 Note that this calculation is slightly different than a similar calculation presented later in this report. In this case, the calculation is made across all education levels and is made not at the program level, but at the occupation level in other words, after the program awards are crosswalked into occupations. In contrast, subsequent analysis assumes that all CIP codes that crosswalk into a high-growth, high-wage (or STEM+) occupation will necessarily do so. 14 STEM: Good Jobs Now and for the Future. ESA Issue Brief # U.S. Department of Commerce, July Market Analysis Eastern Michigan University 25

28 4. Training Gaps next decade than non-stem+ occupations, which is consistent with other long-range employment projections examining STEM-related occupation growth trends. 16 Furthermore, student outcomes are enhanced by including additional STEM-related content in social science, education, health, and business programs. 17 Anecdotal evidence also abounds that employers are increasingly seeking students with broad quantitative analytical skills and the ability to develop strategies and solutions using structured and systematic techniques. Approximately 27% of EMU degrees awarded in the academic year were in the STEM+ category. 15 Source: Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce/WSJ From College Major to Career. 16 STEM: Good Jobs Now and for the Future. ESA Issue Brief # U.S. Department of Commerce, July Knezek, G., Christensen, R., & Tyler-Wood, T. (2011). Contrasting Perceptions of STEM Content and Careers. Contemporary Issues in Technology and Teacher Education, 11(1). Market Analysis Eastern Michigan University 26

29 5. Market Share for Select Occupations 5. Market Share for Select Occupations In this section, only highly-educated occupations are examined in order to exclude those occupations with significant sources of non-postsecondary training a condition which would otherwise obscure the training supply analysis. Highly-educated occupations are defined here as only those occupations in which 75% or more are college-educated. 18 Each of the following portions in Section 5 focuses on detailed occupations (at the six-digit SOC level) within an occupation group (at the two-digit SOC level) Education, Training, and Library Occupations In the academic year, EMU had an approximate 11% market share of postsecondary-educated occupations in the education, training, and library group (excluding postsecondary teachers 19 ) in the Core Region. The majority of these occupations have above-average postsecondary output in the region. For instance, the Core Region produces about 22% more elementary, middle-school, and secondary school teachers comprising over half of this group by employment than the national norm. Only a few specialty occupations in this group have lower-than-average award production in the Core Region such as adult basic literacy teachers and career/technical education teachers. The Expanded Region similarly is above-average in award production for most occupations in this group. Many of the education, training, and library occupations are high-wage occupations projected to be growing. This forecast, however, assumes a moderate 0.4% annualized average job growth rate for the education sector in the EMU Core Region over the next ten years. This projection thus assumes a break from the immediate past trend, since the education sector has been struggling in the EMU market region compared to the remainder of the nation. National employment in education expanded about 2% from the second quarter of 2007 to the second quarter of 2012; jobs contracted approximately 9% in the EMU Core Region in this sector over the same period. 18 The percentage of college-educated by occupation is based upon Table 1.11 from the 2008 Employment Projections Program of the BLS, namely, being the sum of education levels of Some college, no degree and above. See: 19 Postsecondary teachers are excluded in this presentation since the group is treated somewhat uniquely in the CIP-SOC crosswalk. Because of the variety of specialties of postsecondary teachers, the group somewhat acts as a catch-all for postsecondary programs. Results for this group, therefore, can be misleading and are thus not aggregated here with the remainder of the education-related occupations. Market Analysis Eastern Michigan University 27

30 5. Market Share for Select Occupations Figure 5.1: EMU Core Region Postsecondary Training Output for "Highly-Educated" Education, Training, and Library Occupations, SOC Title Employment Awards Secondary School Teachers, Except Special and Career/Technical Education Elementary School Teachers, Except Special Education Middle School Teachers, Except Special and Career/Technical Education EMU Awards Training Concentration 15,443 3, % High- Growth, High-Wage 21,778 2, % 9,871 1, % Instructional Coordinators 2, % Teachers and Instructors, All Other* Preschool Teachers, Except Special Education Special Education Teachers, Preschool, Kindergarten, and Elementary School* 13, % 5, % 3, % Librarians 2, % Farm and Home Management Advisors Kindergarten Teachers, Except Special Education Special Education Teachers, Middle School Special Education Teachers, Secondary School % 2, % 1, % 2, % Curators % Audio-Visual and Multimedia Collections Specialists Adult Basic and Secondary Education and Literacy Teachers and Instructors Museum Technicians and Conservators % 1, % % Archivists % Career/Technical Education Teachers, Secondary School Career/Technical Education Teachers, Middle School Total (excluding postsecondary teachers) Source: Chmura Economics & Analytics, NCES, and BLS 1, % % 84,115 9,640 1, % The Core Region has a slight under-production for preschool and kindergarten teachers. EMU produced 28 awards for these occupations in with the primary source being postgraduate awards in CIP (Early Childhood Education and Teaching). At the postgraduate level, only Oakland University produced more awards (46) in the Core Region in the same academic year. Award output in this program in the Core Region has been slowly trending upward since Market Analysis Eastern Michigan University 28

31 5. Market Share for Select Occupations Award production in CIP programs beginning 13, the Education series in the CIP codes, has been dropping over the last several years in the EMU Core Region. Awards have fallen from 9,323 in the academic year to 6,872 in a 40% decline for the region overall the same pace of decline for EMU awards in this group. Over the same period, two specific programs that have contracted the most are CIP (Education, General) falling from 2,552 to 744, and CIP (Elementary Education and Teaching), contracting from 1,661 to 773. Other specialty education programs, though, have been expanding region-wide over the same period, including CIP (Reading Teacher Education); CIP (Teacher Education and Professional Development, Specific Levels and Methods, Other); and CIP (Curriculum and Instruction). Despite the relative equilibrium (or even surplus) of degrees associated with employment in the education field, a unique market opportunity exists to transition individuals with strong technical and vocational backgrounds into needed teaching roles, such as career and technical teachers especially pertinent in a heavy manufacturing region such as EMU s market area. Recent studies have noted a national and global trend in the manufacturing sector as expanding firms typically cite skill mismatches and skill shortages in key engineering and technician-level positions. 20,21 This skills gap is in no small part due to the fact that higherskilled positions are increasingly the norm as automation and outsourcing reduces the need for unskilled labor and assembly workers in manufacturing processes. This mega-trend increases the need for programs that can help those with the relevant technical/vocational background (such as in precision machining or welding) move into teaching roles, most likely at the secondary level Management Occupations EMU s market share for highly-educated management occupations was 7% in the academic year. Overall, this group had award production in the Core Region approximately equal to that of the nation, therefore limiting the opportunities to expand programs designed to feed into management occupations in the region. This conclusion is relatively insensitive to removing a portion Chmura modeled 30% of the MBAs from the University of Michigan that are expected to relocate outside the expanded region upon graduation. Some occupations in the management group had production considerably below the national norm, most notably SOC (general and operations managers) for which award production was 24% below the national average. The mix of awards in the Core Region especially was lacking at the four-year level compared to the nation; the national mix for this occupation was 46% four-year awards while the mix in the Core Region was 34% four-year awards. EMU produced 158 awards in linked with this occupation with its source programs including: CIP (Public Administration); CIP (Business/Commerce, General); CIP (Business Administration and Management, General); and CIP (International Business/Trade/Commerce). It should be noted that these programs cross into many other occupations as well, such as chief executives; sales managers; and managers, all other. 20 Boiling point? The skills gap in U.S. manufacturing. Deloitte Consulting & National Association of Manufacturers, The Future of Manufacturing: Opportunities to Drive Economic Growth. World Economic Forum & Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited, April Market Analysis Eastern Michigan University 29

32 5. Market Share for Select Occupations Figure 5.2: EMU Core Region Postsecondary Training Output for "Highly Educated" Management Occupations, SOC Title Employment Awards EMU Awards Training Concentration General and Operations Managers 34,997 2, % Managers, All Other 6,498 1, % Sales Managers 6, % Medical and Health Services Managers 6, % Administrative Services Managers 4, % Architectural and Engineering Managers 4, % Chief Executives 5, % Natural Sciences Managers % Social and Community Service Managers High- Growth, High- Wage 2, % Financial Managers 9, % Education Administrators, Postsecondary 2, % Marketing Managers 3, % Education Administrators, Elementary and Secondary School Computer and Information Systems Managers 3, % 5, % Human Resources Managers 1, % Public Relations and Fundraising Managers Education Administrators, Preschool and Childcare Center/Program 1, % % All Other SOC Occupations 3, % TOTAL 104,259 10, % Source: Chmura Economics & Analytics, NCES, and BLS 5.3. Business and Financial Operations Occupations For highly-educated business and financial operations occupations, the EMU Core Region is producing graduates at 23% above the national rate. The largest occupation in this group, accountants and auditors, had 1,604 awards region in the academic year, putting training output of this occupation 18% above the national pace. Management analysts received 1,486 awards in the same year, putting this occupation a slight 1% below the national average. For both of these occupations, the Core Region had a higher mix of postsecondary awards than the nation meaning, expansion possibilities have less competition at the four-year level. EMU has about a 7.4% market share for the highly-educated business and financial operations occupations. Eastern Michigan University s share is a bit higher in some occupations, including market research analysts and marketing specialists (10.6%) as well as accountants and auditors (8.1%). In CIP (Accounting), the primary feeder program for accountants and auditors, EMU produced 95 four-year awards in the academic year, the third-most awards at this level behind Michigan State (239) and Wayne State (109) and just Market Analysis Eastern Michigan University 30

33 5. Market Share for Select Occupations ahead of Walsh College (94). In CIP (Marketing/Marketing Management, General), the prime feeder program for market research analysts and marketing specialists, EMU produced 118 four-year awards in the recent academic year, trailing both University of Toledo (231) and Michigan State (151). Figure 5.3: EMU Core Region Postsecondary Training Output for "Highly Educated" Business and Financial Operations Occupations, SOC Title Employment Awards EMU Awards Training Concentration Accountants and Auditors 22,449 1, % High- Growth, High-Wage Management Analysts 10,579 1, % Market Research Analysts and Marketing Specialists Human Resources, Training, and Labor Relations Specialists, All Other* Training and Development Specialists 6, % 9, % 4, % Financial Analysts 4, % Loan Officers 5, % All Other Occupations 28, % Total 90,216 6, % Source: Chmura Economics & Analytics, NCES, and BLS 5.4. Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media Occupations Among highly-educated arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media occupations, EMU had a 7.8% market share in the academic year. However, EMU recorded over a 20% share in two occupations: coaches and scouts (23.0%) and actors (20.8%). Three existing CIP programs in the market area cross into the coaches and scouting occupation an occupation receiving awards in the EMU core region at about 45% below the national pace. The first is CIP (Sports and Fitness Administration/Management), in which EMU granted 23 postgraduate awards in the academic year the most in this program in the Core Region. EMU was one of four schools to grant awards in CIP (Health and Physical Education/Fitness, General) the second program that crosses into the coaches and scouts occupation. The third program is CIP (Physical Education Teaching and Coaching), which also crosses into teachers in elementary, middle, and secondary school. Regarding acting, EMU has one of the larger theatre programs in the Core Region. In CIP (Drama and Dramatics/Theatre Arts, General), EMU granted 31 four-year awards and 9 postgraduate awards in the academic year. This was only exceeded by Wayne State with 22 four-year and 15 postgraduate awards in the same program. Visual and performing arts awards (CIP programs beginning 50 ) have been steadily growing in the Core Region, expanding from 2,029 in to 3,351 in , a 65% increase over eight years Some of this growth, however, has been for two-year awards, such as in general art studies and programs related to graphic design. Market Analysis Eastern Michigan University 31

34 5. Market Share for Select Occupations The largest occupation in the arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media group is the public relations specialists occupation. The primary training program for this occupation is CIP (Speech Communication and Rhetoric), in which EMU granted the third-most awards (146) in the academic year, following Michigan State (330) and the University of Michigan, Ann Arbor campus (231). EMU also granted 20 awards in (Public Relations/Image Management), which also flows into this occupation. Over the last eight years ( to ), Speech Communication and Rhetoric awards have slowed down somewhat in the Core Region (-10%) while the smaller Public Relations/Image Management program has grown (+48%). Figure 5.4: EMU Core Region Postsecondary Training Output for "Highly Educated" Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media Occupations, SOC Title Employment Awards EMU Awards Training Concentration Public Relations Specialists 4,294 1, % Graphic Designers 3, % Interpreters and Translators % Producers and Directors 1, % Coaches and Scouts 3, % Interior Designers 1, % Editors 1, % Actors % Commercial and Industrial Designers 1, % Musicians and Singers % Photographers 1, % Technical Writers % Media and Communication Workers, All Other % Writers and Authors % Broadcast Technicians % Music Directors and Composers % Reporters and Correspondents % All Other Occupations 3, % Total 27,803 4, % Source: Chmura Economics & Analytics, NCES, and BLS 5.5. Community and Social Services Occupations High- Growth, High- Wage In the academic year, Eastern Michigan University accounted for a 9.0% market share of postsecondary education awards going towards community and social service occupations in the Core Region. Many of these occupations share an overlapping set of feeder programs such as CIP (Psychology, General) and CIP (Social Work). The overall Core Region output for community and social services occupation in the Core Region is about 9% below the national average. Market Analysis Eastern Michigan University 32

35 5. Market Share for Select Occupations Figure 5.5: EMU Core Region Postsecondary Training Output for "Highly Educated" Community and Social Services Occupations, SOC Title Employment Awards Child, Family, and School Social Workers Educational, Guidance, School, and Vocational Counselors EMU Awards Training Concentration 5, % High- Growth, High- Wage 4, % Healthcare Social Workers 3, % Mental Health Counselors 2, % Mental Health and Substance Abuse Social Workers 2, % Rehabilitation Counselors 2, % Substance Abuse and Behavioral Disorder Counselors Community and Social Service Specialists, All Other* Probation Officers and Correctional Treatment Specialists 1, % 2, % 1, % Health Educators 1, % Social Workers, All Other 1, % Marriage and Family Therapists % Social and Human Service Assistants 7, % All Other Occupations 2, % Total 37,906 4, % Source: Chmura Economics & Analytics, NCES, and BLS In CIP (Psychology, General), EMU granted 176 awards in the academic year, nearly all at the bachelor s level. Overall, psychology awards (programs with CIP codes beginning 42 ) have been expanding in the Core Region, increasing 29% from through Public administration and social service profession awards (programs with CIP codes beginning 44 ) have also been expanding in the Core Region, up 43% over the last eight years. EMU offers three programs in this group: CIP (Social Work); CIP (Public Administration); and CIP (Public Administration and Social Service Professions, Other). The EMU Core Region only has three small programs granting awards in CIP (Human Services, General), the primary feeder program according to the traditional crosswalk for SOC (social and human service assistants). The programs granting awards in the year all at the four-year level were University of Phoenix-Metro Detroit Campus (12 awards), Siena Heights University (3), and University of Detroit Mercy (3). For comparison purposes, 11,358 awards were granted in the nation in this program in the same academic year, with 5,281 of those awards being at the four-year level. However, the University of Phoenix granted 1,160, four-year awards in from their large online program. Market Analysis Eastern Michigan University 33

36 5. Market Share for Select Occupations 5.6. Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Occupations EMU has a 3.6% market share in the Core Region for all highly-educated healthcare practitioners and technical occupations one of the fastest-growing occupation groups. EMU has over a 40% market share for two of these occupations recreational therapists and occupational therapists and about a 15% share for two others the dietitians and nutritionists occupation as well as speech-language pathologists. Awards in health professions and related programs (programs with CIP codes beginning 51 ) more than doubled in the EMU Core Region, expanding 137% from the academic year through Overall, highly-educated healthcare practitioners and technologists receive awards in the Core Region at about 6% below the national average pace still relatively close to equilibrium. A large number of detailed healthcare occupations receive awards at below the national average pace in the Core Region, but in nearly all cases the Expanded Region has a better supply pipeline. For instance, the registered nurses occupation has an 89% training concentration in the Core Region, but in the Expanded Region it is 92%. LPNs receive awards at just 61% of the national pace in the Core Region, but 95% of the pace in the Expanded Region. Speech-language pathologists are at a 90% training concentration in the Core Region but at 105% in the Expanded Region. The one exception to this rule is for medical and clinical laboratory technicians, which is below the pace in the Core Region and at an even lower pace in the Expanded Region. Figure 5.6: EMU Core Region Postsecondary Training Output for "Highly Educated" Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Occupations, SOC Title Employment Awards EMU Awards Training Concentration Registered Nurses* 71,616 4, % Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Nurses 16, % Physicians and Surgeons, All Other 7, % Emergency Medical Technicians and Paramedics 5, % Dietitians and Nutritionists 1, % Pharmacists 6, % Radiologic Technologists and Technicians* High- Growth, High- Wage 5, % Family and General Practitioners 2, % Dental Hygienists 4, % Dentists, General 2, % Health Technologists and Technicians, All Other* Medical and Clinical Laboratory Technologists 2, % 4, % Speech-Language Pathologists 2, % Respiratory Therapists 3, % Physical Therapists 4, % Occupational Therapists 2, % Cardiovascular Technologists and Technicians 1, % Veterinarians 1, % Market Analysis Eastern Michigan University 34

37 5. Market Share for Select Occupations SOC Title Employment Awards EMU Awards Training Concentration Diagnostic Medical Sonographers 1, % Physician Assistants 1, % Athletic Trainers % Medical and Clinical Laboratory Technicians Occupational Health and Safety Specialists 3, % 1, % Exercise Physiologists % Recreational Therapists % All Other Occupations 3, % Total 157,174 10, % Source: Chmura Economics & Analytics, NCES, and BLS High- Growth, High- Wage For the occupation dietitians and nutritionists, EMU produced 27 postgraduate awards in , more than any other single school in the Core Region. These awards were from CIP (Foods, Nutrition, and Wellness Studies, General), and CIP (Dietetics/Dietitian), two programs that have each grown in the Core Region in awards output over the last eight years. For the occupational therapists occupation, EMU granted the most awards in the Core Region in the year: 24 four-year degrees and 37 postgraduate degrees. No other school in the region produced both fouryear and postgraduate degrees for this occupation. Only one program in the region is linked with training for occupational therapists: CIP (Occupational Therapy/Therapist). Award output in this program has been trending upward in the Core Region, especially at the master s level, growing from 25 master s awards in to 90 master s awards in For speech language pathologists, EMU granted 32 four-year awards in CIP (Speech-Language Pathology/Pathologists), the only program of its kind that granted awards in the year. However, two other programs are also linked to this occupation, each including an offering of a postgraduate award. CIP (Communication Sciences and Disorders, General) was offered at Wayne State with 34 postgraduate awards in the past academic year. CIP (Audiology/Audiologist and Speech-Language Pathology/Pathologist) was offered at Michigan State with 30 postgraduate awards in Each of these three programs at their respective schools has expanded output over the last several years. In addition, the speech language pathologist occupation received awards in at about 10% below the national pace; moreover, the mix of awards in the Core Region was only 31% postgraduate awards where the national mix for this occupation is 48% postgraduate awards suggesting particular room for growth for this occupation may exist locally at the postgraduate level. EMU produced 11 four-year awards in in CIP (Clinical Laboratory Science/Medical Technology/Technologist), a program that is linked with SOC (medical and clinical laboratory technologists). This occupation has a large training output in the Core Region, nearly at double the national average in Nevertheless, awards output in CIP has more than doubled in recent years in the Core Region, growing from 80 awards in to 197 awards in Only one program exists for recreational therapists in the Core Region: CIP (Therapeutic Recreation/Recreational Therapy). This program produced only four-year awards in at EMU and Market Analysis Eastern Michigan University 35

38 5. Market Share for Select Occupations 16 at University of Toledo. Output from this program has been larger than in , but has been somewhat flat the last several years. The training concentration for this occupation in the Core Region was at over double the national pace in Finally, registered nurses in the Core Region are serviced by several programs, led by CIP (Registered Nursing/Registered Nurse). EMU granted 186 awards in this program in , 16 of which were at the postgraduate level. Awards in the Core Region in this program have soared from 1,811 in to 4,084 in Even so, awards output for this occupation in the Core Region was about 11% behind the national pace in EMU is planning on introducing a master s level physician assistant program which should become a vehicle for EMU to gain market share in both the Core and Expanded Regions in the coming years. Trends in this degree (CIP ) at the master s degree level have been flat since 2006, averaging about 230 degrees awarded per year in the Expanded Region with no one school in the area producing more than 20% of the degrees. In the Core Region, the physician assistants occupation ( ) appears to have room for additional output, with current award output 24% under the national pace; in the Extended Region, though, the training concentration is at 98%, just 2% below the national pace of award production STEM-Related Occupations In this section, STEM-related occupations comprises the following three occupational groupings: (1) computer and mathematical occupations, (2) architecture and engineering occupations, and (3) life, physical, and social science occupations. A number of educational program families are linked with these occupations, and it is worthwhile to mention the trends for each of these in the Core Region. Computer and information sciences and support services (CIPs starting 11 ) declined earlier in the last decade but has grown rapidly the last several years, from 2,262 awards in to 3,269 in Engineering awards (CIPs starting 14 ) were close to flat over the last few years. Biological and biomedical sciences (CIPs starting 26 ) have been expanding steadily over the last eight years, from 1,717 in to 2,892 in Mathematics and statistics (CIPs starting 27 ) has also been growing fairly steadily, though the numbers have been smaller, with 652 total awards in the last academic year. Physical science awards (CIPs starting 40 ) totaled 820 in , the fewest in the last six years on a downward trend. Psychology awards (CIPs starting 42 ), however, are the largest of these groups and has been trending upward, with 2,761 awards in compared to 2,134 awards in Eastern Michigan University had a 2.9% market share for these STEM-related occupations in the Core Region in Overall, this group of occupations has a training concentration in the Core Region at about 20% above the national pace. Market Analysis Eastern Michigan University 36

39 5. Market Share for Select Occupations Figure 5.7: EMU Core Region Postsecondary Training Output for "Highly Educated" STEM-Related Occupations, SOC Title Employment Awards Clinical, Counseling, and School Psychologists Medical Scientists, Except Epidemiologists EMU Awards Training Concentration High- Growth, High- Wage 1, % 2, % Chemists 1, % Computer Support Specialists 12, % Software Developers, Applications 10, % Statisticians % Social Scientists and Related Workers, All Other % Biochemists and Biophysicists % Computer Systems Analysts 10, % Social Science Research Assistants % Software Developers, Systems Software 7, % Actuaries % Urban and Regional Planners % Network and Computer Systems Administrators 6, % Geographers % Survey Researchers % Computer Programmers 6, % Physicists % Geoscientists, Except Hydrologists and Geographers % Architectural and Civil Drafters 3, % Information Security Analysts, Web Developers, and Computer Network Architects* 5, % Mechanical Drafters 1, % Microbiologists % Materials Engineers % Economists % Anthropologists and Archeologists % Zoologists and Wildlife Biologists % Database Administrators 2, % All Other , , and Occupations 59,524 5, % Total 137,992 12, % Source: Chmura Economics & Analytics, NCES, and BLS Market Analysis Eastern Michigan University 37

40 5. Market Share for Select Occupations For clinical, counseling, and school psychologists, EMU had a 9.1% market share of awards linked with this occupation. EMU has three programs linked with this occupation, each with a postgraduate component: CIP (Psychology, General); CIP (Clinical Psychology); and CIP (Counseling Psychology). While the US mix of awards for this occupation is 88% at the postgraduate level, the regional mix is 79% at the postgraduate level, suggesting more room for expansion with this occupation may be with programs at the postgraduate level. EMU has four programs that are linked with the occupation SOC (medical scientists, except epidemiologists): CIP (Molecular Biology), CIP (Exercise Physiology), CIP (Gerontology), and CIP (Clinical and Industrial Drug Development). 23 Due to the educational requirements of clinical and drug development position, only postgraduate awards are linked with this occupation All Other Occupation Groups Among highly-educated occupations in all other occupation groups not examined separately in Section 5, EMU has a 2.4% market share. Overall, these occupations have a training concentration at 41% above the national average; though some occupations are significantly below the national pace, particularly in a couple of occupations for which EMU has a large market share. Figure 5.8: EMU Core Region Postsecondary Training Output for "Highly Educated" "All Other" Occupations, SOC Title Employment Awards EMU Awards Training Concentration Police and Sheriff's Patrol Officers 7, % Fitness Trainers and Aerobics Instructors Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products 4, % 25, % Paralegals and Legal Assistants 4, % First-Line Supervisors of Police and Detectives Airline Pilots, Copilots, and Flight Engineers Eligibility Interviewers, Government Programs 1, % 1, % 2, % Commercial Pilots % All Other , , , , , , and Occupations 63,804 3, % Total 111,176 5, % Source: Chmura Economics & Analytics, NCES, and BLS High- Growth, High- Wage 23 Both the Exercise Physiology and Clinical and Industrial Drug Development programs are the only ones of their kind in the Core Region per data. Market Analysis Eastern Michigan University 38

41 5. Market Share for Select Occupations EMU has a 43% market share for the occupation SOC (sales representatives, wholesale and manufacturing, except technical and scientific products), an occupation that receives awards at only 40% of the national average pace. Two EMU programs are linked with this occupation: CIP (General Merchandising, Sales, and Related Marketing Operations, Other) and CIP (Fashion Merchandising). The first of these programs, General Merchandising, is only offered at EMU and has been relatively flat the last several years. The second program, Fashion Merchandising, dropped in awards at EMU in the latest academic year after somewhat trending upward; EMU has new competition in this program in the Art Institute of Michigan. EMU had 100% of the market share for commercial pilots as well as airline pilots, copilots, and flight engineers per its CIP (Airline/Commercial/Professional Pilot and Flight Crew) program, which granted 9 four-year awards in Per NCES data, only Lansing Community College also offers this program, but had no graduates in that academic year. EMU granted 19 awards in the two years ending 2010 and 2011 after graduating 19 in the preceding five years. In the nation, the mix of awards flowing into these occupations is about 36% four-year, 36% postgraduate, and the remaining at the two-year/certificate level. EMU has one program linked with SOC police and sheriff s patrol officers: CIP (Criminology), with 101 awards in ; five of those were at the postgraduate level. This program has grown at EMU from 73 graduates in the academic year. While this program is in the 45 CIP series, many of the programs for this and similar occupations are in the 43 series security and protective services a program series which has been growing in the EMU Core Region, nearly doubling from 1,179 awards in to 2,351 awards in Market Analysis Eastern Michigan University 39

42 Year 2002 = Market Share Analysis and Primary Competitors 6. Market Share Analysis and Primary Competitors The number of bachelor s, master s, and doctoral level degrees in aggregate earned in the EMU Expanded Region has grown by close to 1.6% per year over the past ten years. In that time, the total bachelor s degrees awarded has grown from roughly 61,000 in to nearly 72,000 in the academic year, or just under 2% annualized growth per year. Master s level degrees in this region have increased very little in the past decade in stark contrast to national trends growing only 0.3% per year in the same time frame. In contrast, doctoral level degree awards have grown much faster in this region over this period, increasing by more than 4% per year as compared to the national trend of roughly 3% annual growth. During 2002 to 2011, the number of degrees awarded at the region s educational institutions rose at less than half the pace of national trends. The non-existent pace of master s degree production coupled with the rapid expansion of doctoral degrees in this area is difficult to explain given this region s overall postgraduate educational attainment is on par with the national level norm. Figure 6.1: Changes in the Supply of Postsecondary Bachelor's (Expanded Region) Master's (Expanded Region) Doctoral (Expanded Region) Bachelor's (USA) Master's (USA) Doctoral (USA) While nearly 100 separate colleges and universities exist in the Expanded Region, the top twenty institutions represent approximately 75% of all the degrees awarded in a given year. In fact the top ten institutions account for about 63% of all the degrees produced in a given year. This concentration of degrees is found throughout the baccalaureate and post-baccalaureate space. The ten large institutions award more than 60% of all bachelor s degrees, two-thirds of all master s degrees, and roughly 70% of doctoral programs. Of these large Market Analysis Eastern Michigan University 40

43 6. Market Share Analysis and Primary Competitors universities, Grand Valley State University stands out in having increased its bachelor s degrees by 6.6% on average per year since While more than 15 schools have dropped doctoral programs in the past decade, a slightly greater number have expanded their doctoral programs. The University of Toledo and Ferris State University have more than doubled their program awards between 2002 and 2010 and Oakland University more than quintupled its doctoral awards from 19 in to 105 in In this time period ( to ) EMU s market share in both the Core Region and the Expanded Region has held steady. EMU lost ground slightly in terms of it market share at the bachelor s degree level but increased its market share slightly at the master s degree level. Overall EMU awarded 9% bachelor s degrees and 6.5% of the master s degrees (4.8% of the bachelor s and 4.4% of the master s in the Expanded Region) in the academic year, and 8.6% of the bachelor s degrees and 7.5% of the master s degrees (4.4% bachelor s and 5.7% of the master s in the Expanded Region) in the academic year Regional Market Share Analysis The following sections evaluate EMU s market share in the Core Region as well as providing a detailed market share analysis for several sub-markets in this market area. It will address EMU and its main competitors in terms of overall market share as well as market share associated with degrees likely to lead into a STEM+ occupation or into a high-growth, high-wage occupation Market Share in the Expanded Region In general, the degrees offered in the Expanded Region are fairly well aligned with jobs that meet the criteria for being considered high-growth, high-wage occupations. In the Core Region, just under 65% of bachelor s degrees awarded in would likely feed into at least one high-growth, high-wage occupation and just under 75% of master s degrees and 85% of doctoral programs fed into these select occupations. However, in terms of the area s largest institutions, 8 of the 12 are well below the regional norm in terms of bachelor s degrees that are geared towards high-growth, high-wage occupations. In contrast, approximately 72% of EMU s bachelor s degrees were aligned to at least one high-growth, high-wage occupation in , which is 7 percentage points above the regional average. The share of EMU s doctoral level programs that align to highgrowth, high-wage jobs are on par with the regional average. However, at the master s degree level, only 70% of EMU s master s degrees in were likely to feed into a high-growth, high-wage job, which is about 5 percentage points below the regional norm and the lowest among the area s largest universities. Figure 6.5: EMU Degree Summary Degree Type Total High-Growth, High-Wage related STEM+- Related High-Growth, High- Wage related (Share or Total) % of STEM+related (Share of Total) Bachelor's 3,150 2, % 26% Master's 1, % 27% Doctoral Awards % 0% Source: National Center for Education Statistics and Chmura Economics & Analytics The region s education providers are also providing a slightly greater number of degrees related to Science, Technology, Engineering, and Math (STEM) 24 than the national norm. Overall, about 36% of bachelor s 24 We utilize a STEM+ definition that includes select health care degree programs as well as math-intensive business programs which include several Finance, Accounting, and Economics degrees. Market Analysis Eastern Michigan University 41

44 6. Market Share Analysis and Primary Competitors degrees in the Expanded Region meet Chmura s STEM+ definition compared to 34% in the nation as a whole. At the bachelor s degree level, EMU is underweight in its STEM+ degrees with only 26% of its bachelor s degrees feeding into STEM+ occupations about 10 and 8 percentage points below the regional and national norm, respectively. This STEM+ shortfall can be solely attributed to the fact that EMU lacks an engineering program. Figure 6.2: Bachelor's Greater Michigan Region School Univ. of Michigan: Ann Arbor, Dearborn, & Flint Total Market Share High- Growth, High-Wage related STEM+- Related High-Growth, High-Wage related (Share of Total) % of STEM+related (Share of Total) 9, % 6,057 4,436 63% 46% Michigan State University 8, % 4,118 3,756 51% 47% Grand Valley State University 4, % 2,441 1,356 56% 31% Central Michigan University 4, % 2,810 1,264 67% 30% Western Michigan University 4, % 2,578 1,297 63% 31% Eastern Michigan University 3, % 2, % 26% University of Toledo 2, % 2,122 1,237 74% 43% Bowling Green State University 2, % 1, % 29% University of Notre Dame 2, % 1,559 1,220 57% 45% Wayne State University 2, % 1, % 36% Oakland University 2, % 1, % 41% Saginaw Valley State University Source: National Center for Education Statistics and Chmura Economics & Analytics 1, % 1, % 32% At the master s level, EMU is on par for the regional norm with 27% of its master s level degrees linked to a STEM+ occupation. None of EMU s doctoral programs are linked to a STEM+ occupation compared with a 46% regional norm. In this broader region, the University of Michigan produces more than twice the regional average of STEM+-related master s degrees, while both the University of Toledo and Michigan State University are also STEM+-heavy in their master s degree production. Market Analysis Eastern Michigan University 42

45 6. Market Share Analysis and Primary Competitors Figure 6.3: Master's Greater Michigan Region School Univ. of Michigan: Ann Arbor, Dearborn, & Flint Total Market Share High- Growth, High-Wage related STEM+related High-Growth, High-Wage related (Share of Total) % of STEM+related (Share of Total) 4, % 3,269 2,388 69% 61% Michigan State University 2, % 1, % 38% Grand Valley State University 1, % % 18% Central Michigan University 1, % 1, % 12% Western Michigan University 1, % 1, % 21% Eastern Michigan University 1, % % 27% University of Toledo 1, % % 44% Bowling Green State University % % 17% University of Notre Dame ^ % 32% Wayne State University 2, % 1, % 29% Oakland University % % 24% Saginaw Valley State University % % 5% Source: National Center for Education Statistics and Chmura Economics & Analytics Figure 6.4 illustrates that while most large schools have seen their bachelor s degree awards expand modestly over the past decade of the seven largest only one has expanded its bachelor s degree programs more than 2% per year there is great variation in the growth (or shrinkage) of these institutions master s degree programs. EMU s overall market share at the bachelor s level has slipped very slightly in recent years from its average of 4.7% to roughly 4.4% for the past four years. At the master s level, EMU s market share has increased roughly half a percentage point to 4.9% over the past four years, up from an average of 4.5% in the period of Overall, EMU has exhibited close to balanced growth between its bachelor s and master s degree programs with modest expansion in both areas. Market Analysis Eastern Michigan University 43

46 Annual Average Growth Master's 6. Market Share Analysis and Primary Competitors Figure 6.4: Bachelor's & Master's Level Growth 5.0% 4.0% Balanced Growth Line 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% -1.0% -2.0% -3.0% -4.0% Eastern Michigan University 0.0% -3.0% -1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 5.0% 7.0% 9.0% -5.0% Annual Average Growth Bachelor's Univ of Michigan* Michigan State Univ Central Michigan Univ Grand Valley State Univ Western Michigan Univ Wayne State Univ Eastern Michigan Univ Bowling Green State Univ Univ of Notre Dame Oakland Univ Univ of Toledo Saginaw Valley State Univ Bubble Size Indicates Combined Market Share for Bachelor's & Master's Market Share in the Core Region There is a great deal of competition in the Core Region. This region is much more concentrated in terms of market share than the Expanded Region. The schools in this region have a curriculum that is similarly aligned with the high-growth, high-wage jobs (66% of all bachelor s degrees) as in the broader region, but are more likely to produce a graduate with a degree (40% of all degrees) that would lead to a STEM+ occupation than in the broader region. The University of Michigan (all three campuses) and Michigan State Univversity provide close to half of all bachelor s degrees and more than 40% of all master s degrees in this region. EMU is above the regional norm in terms of the share of its bachelor s degrees that feed into high-growth, high-wage occupations, but it is 5 percentage points behind at the master s level in terms of master s degrees that are likely to feed into high-growth, high-wage occupations. EMU s offering of STEM+-related bachelor s and master s degrees are also below the regional norm of 42% and 35%, respectively which is solely a consequence of the lack of an engineering program at EMU. Market Analysis Eastern Michigan University 44

47 6. Market Share Analysis and Primary Competitors Figure 6.6: Bachelor's Greater Detroit Core Region School Univ. of Michigan: Ann Arbor, Dearborn, & Flint Total Market Share High- Growth, High-Wage related STEM+related High-Growth, High-Wage related (Share of Total) % of STEM+related (Share of Total) 9,572 26% 6,057 4,436 63% 46% Michigan State University 8,018 22% 4,118 3,756 51% 47% Eastern Michigan University 3,150 9% 2, % 26% University of Toledo 2,855 8% 2,122 1,237 74% 43% Wayne State University 2,675 7% 1, % 36% Oakland University 2,388 7% 1, % 41% University of Detroit Mercy 750 3% % 70% Spring Arbor University 738 2% % 40% Siena Heights University 726 2% % 33% Baker College Center for Graduate Studies 634 2% % 30% Madonna University 626 2% % 30% Source: National Center for Education Statistics and Chmura Economics & Analytics EMU s market share of bachelor s degrees that feed into high-growth, high-wage jobs is about one percentage point higher than its overall market share, but its market share in terms of master s programs that feed into these select occupations is half a percentage point underweight compared to its overall market share of master s degrees. While EMU s doctoral level offerings are limited, 84% of them track into a high-growth, highwage occupation, which is close to the regional norm of 87%. Figure 6.7: Master's Greater Detroit Core Region School Univ. of Michigan: Ann Arbor, Dearborn, & Flint Total Market Share High- Growth, High-Wage related STEM+related High-Growth, High-Wage related (Share of Total) % of STEM+related (Share of Total) 4,769 29% 3,269 2,388 69% 50% Michigan State University 2,007 12% 1, % 37% Eastern Michigan University 1,256 8% % 27% University of Toledo 1,018 6% % 44% Wayne State University 2,283 14% 1, % 29% Oakland University 974 6% % 24% University of Detroit Mercy 503 3% % 64% Spring Arbor University 398 2% % 0% Siena Heights University 136 1% % 26% Baker College Center for Graduate Studies 308 2% % 16% Madonna University 347 2% % 9% Source: National Center for Education Statistics and Chmura Economics & Analytics Market Analysis Eastern Michigan University 45

48 6. Market Share Analysis and Primary Competitors Market Share in Oakland County Oakland County features the most intense competition of all the counties in the Core Region, particularly at the graduate level. In Oakland County, there is greatest alignment towards bachelor s degrees that feed into at least one high-growth, high-wage occupation than any other sub-region in the Core Region, with roughly 76% of all bachelor s degrees awarded in Oakland County likely to lead to a high-growth, high-wage occupation. About 39% of bachelor s degrees in Oakland County are linked to a STEM+ occupation which is just slightly less than the norm in the broader Core Region. Similarly, nearly 88% of the master s degrees awarded in Oakland County are likely to lead to at least one high-growth, high-wage occupation. Oakland County is also underweight in terms of STEM+-related master s degrees with less than a third of master s degrees awarded in a STEM+ field compared with 35% in the Core Region. Figure 6.8: Bachelor's Oakland County (Pontiac) School Total Market Share High-Growth, High-Wage related STEM+related High-Growth, High-Wage related (Share of Total) % of STEM+related (Share of Total) Oakland University 2,388 55% 1, % 41% Lawrence Technological University Walsh College of Accountancy and Business Administration University of Phoenix-Metro Detroit Campus % % 79% 400 9% % 55% 378 9% % 20% Rochester College 252 6% % 4% Baker College of Auburn Hills 215 5% % 22% International Academy of Design and Technology-Troy 146 3% % 0% ITT Technical Institute-Troy 82 2% % 59% The Art Institute of Michigan 13 0% % 15% Devry University-Michigan 12 0% 0 0 0% 0% Yeshiva Gedolah Of Greater Detroit 4 0% 0 0 0% 0% Michigan Jewish Institute 3 0% % 33% Cranbrook Academy of Arts 0 0% 0 0 0% 0% Michigan School of Professional Psychology Source: National Center for Education Statistics and Chmura Economics & Analytics 0% 0 0 0% 0% Market Analysis Eastern Michigan University 46

49 6. Market Share Analysis and Primary Competitors Figure 6.9: Master's Oakland County (Pontiac) School Total Market Share High- Growth, High-Wage related STEM+related High-Growth, High-Wage related (Share or Total) % of STEM+related (Share of Total) Oakland University % % 24% Lawrence Technological University Walsh College of Accountancy and Business Administration University of Phoenix-Metro Detroit Campus % % 59% % % 38% 182 8% % 7% Rochester College 10 0% 0 0 0% 0% Baker College of Auburn Hills 0 0% 0 0 0% 0% International Academy of Design and Technology-Troy 0 0% 0 0 0% 0% ITT Technical Institute-Troy 0 0% 0 0 0% 0% The Art Institute of Michigan 0 0% 0 0 0% 0% Devry University-Michigan 0 0% 0 0 0% 0% Yeshiva Gedolah Of Greater Detroit 0 0% 0 0 0% 0% Michigan Jewish Institute 0 0% 0 0 0% 0% Cranbrook Academy of Arts 80 4% % 36% Michigan School of Professional Psychology Source: National Center for Education Statistics and Chmura Economics & Analytics 30 1% % 0% Market Analysis Eastern Michigan University 47

50 6. Market Share Analysis and Primary Competitors Market Share in Wayne County In Wayne County, there is greater alignment towards bachelor s degrees that feed into at least one highgrowth, high-wage occupation than in the Core Region, with roughly 70% of all bachelor s degrees awarded in Wayne County likely to lead to a high-growth, high-wage occupation. About 41% of bachelor s degrees in Wayne County are likely to lead to a STEM+ occupation which is similar to the norm in the Core Region. Similarly, nearly 80% of master s degrees awarded in Wayne County are likely to lead to at least one highgrowth, high-wage occupation. Wayne County is also heavy in terms of STEM+-related master s degrees with more than half of master s degrees awarded in a STEM+ field compared with only 35% in the Core Region. Figure 6.10: Bachelor's Wayne County (Detroit/Livonia) School Total Market Share High- Growth, High-Wage related STEM+related High-Growth, High-Wage related (Share of Total) % of STEM+related (Share of Total) Wayne State University 2,675 47% 1, % 36% University of Michigan-Dearborn 1,137 20% % 45% University of Detroit Mercy % % 70% Madonna University % % 30% College for Creative Studies 252 4% % 35% Marygrove College 112 2% % 16% Baker College of Allen Park 96 2% % 20% ITT Technical Institute-Canton 76 1% % 67% Sacred Heart Major Seminary 23 0% 0 0 0% 0% Ecumenical Theological Seminary Source: National Center for Education Statistics and Chmura Economics & Analytics 0 0% 0 0 0% 0% Market Analysis Eastern Michigan University 48

51 6. Market Share Analysis and Primary Competitors Figure 6.11: Master's Wayne County (Detroit/Livonia) School Total Market Share High-Growth, High-Wage related STEM+related High-Growth, High-Wage related (Share of Total) % of STEM+related (Share of Total) Wayne State University 2,283 50% 1, % 29% University of Michigan-Dearborn % % 51% University of Detroit Mercy % % 64% Madonna University 347 8% % 9% College for Creative Studies 9 0% % 100% Marygrove College % % 0% Baker College of Allen Park 0 0% 0 0 0% 0% ITT Technical Institute-Canton 0 0% 0 0 0% 0% Sacred Heart Major Seminary 38 1% 0 0 0% 0% Ecumenical Theological Seminary Source: National Center for Education Statistics and Chmura Economics & Analytics Market Share in Genesee County 16 0% 0 0 0% 0% In Genesee County, there is greater alignment towards bachelor s degrees that feed into at least one highgrowth, high-wage occupation than in the Core Region, with roughly 83% of all bachelor s degrees awarded in Genesee County likely to lead to a high-growth, high-wage occupation. About half of the bachelor s degrees in Genesee County are likely to lead to a STEM+ occupation which is well above the norm in the Core Region. Approximately 75% of master s degrees awarded in Genesee County are likely to lead to at least one highgrowth, high-wage occupation, which is on par for the Core Region. In contrast, Genesee County is also quite underweight in terms of STEM+-related master s degrees with less than a quarter of master s degrees awarded in a STEM+ field compared with 35% in the Core Region. Figure 6.12: Bachelor's Genesee County (Flint) School Total Market Share High-Growth, High-Wage related STEM+related High-Growth, High-Wage related (Share of Total) % of STEM+related (Share of Total) University of Michigan-Flint % % 45% Baker College Center for Graduate Studies % % 30% Kettering University % % 97% Baker College of Flint 145 7% % 36% ITT Technical Institute-Swartz Creek Source: National Center for Education Statistics and Chmura Economics & Analytics 47 2% % 68% Market Analysis Eastern Michigan University 49

52 6. Market Share Analysis and Primary Competitors Figure 6.13: Master's Genesee County (Flint) School Total Market Share High-Growth, High-Wage related STEM+related High-Growth, High-Wage related (Share of Total) % of STEM+related (Share of Total) University of Michigan-Flint % % 22% Baker College Center for Graduate Studies % % 16% Kettering University % % 37% Baker College of Flint 0 0% 0 0 0% 0% ITT Technical Institute-Swartz Creek Source: National Center for Education Statistics and Chmura Economics & Analytics 0 0% 0 0 0% 0% Market Share in Jackson, Macomb, and St. Clair Counties These are all small, rural markets with a very limited number of schools that are based in these counties. Overall, these small schools feature good alignment in the bachelor s degrees they award and high-growth, high-wage occupations. However, the postgraduate opportunities in this area are very limited none are offered in St. Clair and Macomb Counties and Spring Arbor University s master s degrees poorly align with needs of high-growth, high-wage occupations or STEM+ occupations. In Macomb County, Oakland University has two small satellite campuses which also offer a limited number of undergraduate and graduate degrees. In Jackson County, the greatest potential exists in programs geared toward occupations in architecture and engineering and protective services, and to a lesser extent in degrees linked to careers in law, the arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media, and some personal care and counseling positions. In Macomb and St. Clair together more than one million in population there is some opportunity in EMU s core business, physical science, and education programs. There is also market space for degrees linked to community and social work occuapations and protective services. (See the appendix for additional detail.) Figure 6.14: Bachelor's Jackson, Macomb, & St. Clair Counties Jackson County School Total Market Share High- Growth, High-Wage related STEM+related High-Growth, High-Wage related (Share of Total) Spring Arbor University % % 40% Baker College of Jackson 82 10% % 32% Macomb County Baker College of Clinton Township St. Clair County % % 24% Baker College of Port Huron % % 25% Source: National Center for Education Statistics and Chmura Economics & Analytics % of STEM+related (Share of Total) Market Analysis Eastern Michigan University 50

53 6. Market Share Analysis and Primary Competitors Figure 6.15: Master's Jackson, Macomb, & St. Clair Counties Jackson County School Total Market Share High- Growth, High-Wage related STEM+related High-Growth, High-Wage related (Share of Total) % of STEM+related (Share of Total) Spring Arbor University % % 0% Source: National Center for Education Statistics and Chmura Economics & Analytics Market Share in Livingston & Monroe Counties Neither Livingston nor Monroe County is home to a college or university granting four-year or higher postsecondary degrees. Livingston County graduates about 2,300 and Monroe County about 2,250 high school students per year. Based upon the educational attainment profile, Chmura estimates that roughly 715 to 1,500 high school graduates in Livingston County and 675 to 1,125 graduates in Monroe County per year are likely to enroll in a four-year college. In Livingston, the University of Michigan-Flint has partnered with select public school systems to allow for high school students to build up to 12 credit hours in either a business- or economic-related curriculum or a law- or criminal justice-related curriculum. Chmura estimates 25 that the relative market share for these students breaks down as follows: Figure 6.16 Enrollment Estimates for Top 15 Schools for Residents of Monroe & Livingston Counties School Share of Total College Bound Students Monroe County, Michigan Share of Total College Bound Students Livingston, County Michigan University of Michigan-Ann Arbor 18% 20% Eastern Michigan University 12% 10% University of Toledo 8% 2% Wayne State University 8% 5% Michigan State University 8% 18% Bowling Green State University-Main Campus 4% 2% Oakland University 4% 5% Western Michigan University 4% 4% University of Michigan-Dearborn 4% 2% Central Michigan University 3% 5% Davenport University 3% 3% Grand Valley University 3% 4% Saginaw Valley State University 2% 2% University of Michigan-Flint 1% 3% Ferris State 1% 1% Source: Chmura Economics & Analytics 25 Gravity model based on enrollment, distance, and tuition costs; coefficients are assumed to be equal. This modeling may be on the conservative side regarding EMU s share, based upon the variables used and a comparison with EMU enrollment data by ZIP code. Market Analysis Eastern Michigan University 51

54 6. Market Share Analysis and Primary Competitors 6.2. Peer Competitor Profiles This section examines several key competitor/peer institutions with regard to trends in online degree programs as well as the emergence of mixed-mode (traditional classroom-based learning with an online component) course offerings and the introduction of novel degree programs such as dual-degree structures. Several data points suggest that online offerings are likely to grow faster than the overall growth in higher education in the coming years. 26 This same research, as well as separate research, indicates that perceptions of the quality of online education are trending towards parity with traditional learning environments. 27,28 The geographic reach of various satellite campuses is also examined in the section. Conventional wisdom holds that online programs offer the possibility of increasing an institution s profit margins mostly via economies of scale and costeffective enrollment increases. Nevertheless, most public universities have not experienced online-derived profits sufficient in size to offset other funding declines in recent years. 29 Unambiguously, offering online programs allows a school to broaden its appeal and enrollment figures with non-traditional students adult learners, second-careerists, and experienced individuals seeking to upskill within their given field. 30 Because national trends are increasingly compelling workers to upskill, as well as requiring the re-education of mid-career individuals usually in part due to technology changes there is a competitive edge to those colleges and universities that can effectively deliver programs either fully or partially online and capture this growing market. However, Chmura s analysis indicates that introducing an online program alone does not necessarily lead to increased market share, but it may help maintain market share in the face of stiff competition. Overall, Chmura found that on average more non-online programs declined than grew in enrollment over the past decade in both the Core and Expanded Regions. However, of the programs that are delivered online, the vast majority saw steady enrollment figures; the number of programs growing online exceeded those that were floundering University of Michigan-Ann Arbor/Dearborn/Flint The University of Michigan (UoM) has three distinct campuses its main campus at Ann Arbor, a Detroitcentric Dearborn campus, and a northern Flint campus. UoM has not expanded any of its three campuses in any significant way to include additional locations in the past five years. While the satellite campuses (Dearborn and Flint) don t offer every program available at UoM, both offer substantial undergraduate programs and at least some graduate level offerings although no doctoral level degrees are available directly from the Dearborn campus, and the Flint campus offers only a doctorate in physical therapy. 26 Going the Distance: Online Education in the United States, 2011, Babson Survey Research Group, November Ibid. 28 Learning from Adult Students, Karen Lauristen, NASPA Poster Session The Digital Campus The Chronicle of Higher Education, 6-Nov Growth in Distance Education Programs and Implications for Federal Education Policy. US General Accounting Office, September Market Analysis Eastern Michigan University 52

55 6. Market Share Analysis and Primary Competitors Online Programs UoM offers a mix of fully-online as well as partially-online programs mostly at the graduate level (master s), but offers a few options at the undergraduate level. Overall, these online programs have been only modestly successful in driving increased enrollment at UoM. In particular, UoM offers nearly a dozen online master s degrees through its Graduate School of Engineering and about a half dozen online graduate certificate programs most of these are also available via traditional classroom enrollment. Approximately 490 students are enrolled in at least one of these online engineering programs, but none of these programs overall have experienced a meaningful increase in enrollment in the past five years. UoM also offers online options for several programs: MBA, master s in finance, master s in information systems, and master s in education, as well as three dual-degree programs. It is noteworthy that three of these programs have experienced increased enrollment in recent years the master s in information systems, the masters in finance, and the dual MBA-MA in finance all of which are offered out of the UoM business school. However, only one of these programs, the master s in information systems is offered exclusively in an online capacity. The remainder of these master s degree programs offer the option of pursuing a fully-online degree or allowing the student to attend a mix of some traditional classes coupled with online courses. Approximately 229 students are enrolled in one of the six online graduate programs offered at the business school. At the undergraduate level, UoM offers two separate 2+2 programs and one partially-online degree in business administration. Only the nursing 2+2 program can be earned fully-online and its enrollment numbers show a consistent upward trend in the past five years. Figure 6.17 Online Offerings at the University of Michigan Online Programs School Level Delivery Trend Automotive Systems Engineering Engineering master's Online Option Computer Engineering Engineering master's Online Option Computer and Information Science Engineering master's Online Option Electrical Engineering Engineering master's Online Option Engineering Management Engineering master's Online Option Industrial and Systems Engineering Engineering master's Online Option Information Systems and Technology Engineering master's Online Option Mechanical Engineering Engineering master's Online Option Program and Project Management Engineering master's Online Option Information Systems Engineering master's Online Only Software Engineering Business master's Online Option Business Administration (MBA) Business master's Online Option Finance (MS) Business master's Online Option Dual Degree: Business Administration (MBA) and Finance (MS) Dual Degree: Industrial & Systems Engineering (MSE) and Business Administration (MBA) Dual Degree: Business Administration (MBA) and Information Systems (MS) Business master's Online Option Business master's Online Option Business master's Online Option Educational Technology Education master's Online Option Education Specialist (post-masters) Education master's Online Option Master of Public Administration (MPA) Arts & Sciences master's Online Option Market Analysis Eastern Michigan University 53

56 6. Market Share Analysis and Primary Competitors Online Programs School Level Delivery Trend Doctor of Nursing Practice (DNP) Nursing/Med doctoral Online Option Transitional Doctor of Physical Therapy (t-dpt) Nursing/Med doctoral Online Option Doctor of Anesthesia Practice (DrAP) Nursing/Med doctoral Online Option Automotive Systems Engineering Engineering graduate certificate Online Option Engineering Management Engineering graduate certificate Online Option Game Design Engineering graduate certificate Online Option Software Engineering Engineering graduate certificate Online Option Vehicle Electronics Engineering graduate certificate Online Option Inclusion Specialist Certificate Education graduate certificate Online Only Bachelor of Applied Sciences Arts & Sciences Bachelor s 2+2 Partially-Online Bachelor of Science in Nursing Nursing/Med Bachelor s 2+2 Online Option Bachelor of Business Administration Business Bachelor s Partially-Online African and African American Studies Certificate Arts & Sciences undergrad certificate Online Option Source: Chmura Economics & Analytics Hybrid/Dual Degree Offerings UoM offers more than 60 dual-degree graduate-level options and four direct bachelor s-to-master s programs. Of these programs, several specialized postgraduate nursing degrees have shown steady growth over the past five years. At the undergraduate level, UoM has introduced five new majors in 2011 Bioengineering, Digital Forensics, Digital Marketing, Journalism/Screen Studies, and Reading Michigan State University Michigan State University (MSU) has three main campuses the main campus in East Lansing, the Detroitcentric Troy campus, and the Dubai campus in the United Arab Emirates. MSU will also occasionally utilize leased space in Birmingham, Flint, Marquette, Novi, Rochester, Saginaw, and St. Johns, Michigan, as well as in Washington DC, to offer some graduate-level classes and programs. The offerings at the Troy campus are quite limited and only the master s-level program in human resources is offered out of this campus along with some general business-related classes. The Dubai campus is limed to four master s degree programs Human Resources & Labor Relations, Public Health (introduced in 2011), U.S. Law (introduced 2012), and Local Jurisprudence (2012). MSU has links with Al Majdouie Group, and affiliations with the Middle East Logistics Institute (MELI) in the Eastern Province of Saudi Arabia. At these offsite locations, students can enroll in classes pertaining to one of several graduate-level programs, although the intermittent class schedule permits only part-time students. These programs are: master s degrees in Advertising, MBA, K-12 Education Administration, Public Relations, and Social Work. MSU has also discontinued approximately 15 graduate-level programs and 10 undergraduate programs in recent years. 31 Online Programs Online, MSU offers mostly graduate programs from ten separate colleges within the university, but the preponderance of its online enrollment is in two programs education and nursing. It is also in these two areas 31 See appendix for listing Market Analysis Eastern Michigan University 54

57 6. Market Share Analysis and Primary Competitors where MSU has been increasing its enrollment and graduates by more than 10% over the past five years. Currently, there are approximately 260 students enrolled in one of its online master s programs in education and another 150 in its master s of nursing program. At the undergraduate level, its online 2+2 program for existing nurses to earn their bachelor s degree has more than doubled in the past five years. MSU s online master s in both social work and food safety have also shown strong gains in recent years. Figure 6.18 Online Offerings at the Michigan State University Program School Level Delivery Trend Biomedical Laboratory Operations MS Natural Science master's Online Option Biomedical Laboratory Science MA Natural Science master's Online Option Clinical Laboratory Science MS Natural Science master's Online Option Criminal Justice MS Social Science master's Online Option Education MA Education master's Online Option Educational Psychology and Educational Technology PhD Education doctoral Partially-Online Educational Technology MA Education master's Online Option Food Safety MS Ag & Natural Resources master's Partially-Online Health Professions Education MA Education master's Online Option Higher, Adult and Lifelong Education MA Education master's Online Option Integrative Pharmacology MS Osteopathic Med master's Partially-Online Judicial Administration Graduate Specialization Social Science post-master's Partially-Online Law Enforcement Intelligence and Analysis MS Social Science master's Online Option Literacy and Language Instruction Graduate Specialization (AP) Nursing Bachelor of Science in Nursing (RN to BSN track only) Education post-master's Online Option Nursing bachelor 2+2 Online Option Nursing MS Nursing master's Online Option Clinical Nurse Specialist concentration concentration Online Option n.a. Nurse Practitioner concentration concentration Partially-Online n.a. Packaging Master of Science (AP) Ag & Natural Resources master's Online Option Pharmacology and Toxicology MS Osteopathic Med master's Online Option Physics MS Natural Science master's Partially-Online Physics PhD Natural Science doctoral Partially-Online Public Health MPH Human Medicine master's Partially-Online Social Work MSW (Statewide Blended Clinical Master of Social Work Program) Social Science master's Partially-Online Special Education MA Education master's Online Option Supply Chain Management MS Business master's Partially-Online Teaching and Curriculum MA Education master's Partially-Online Youth Development MA Education master's Online Option Clinical Nurse Specialist Nursing grad certificate Online Option Educational Technology Education grad certificate Online Option Market Analysis Eastern Michigan University 55

58 6. Market Share Analysis and Primary Competitors Program School Level Delivery Trend International Public Health Human Medicine grad certificate Online Option Nurse Practitioner Nursing grad certificate Partially-Online Public Health Human Medicine grad certificate Online Option Public Health Administration Human Medicine grad certificate Online Option Public Health Informatics Human Medicine grad certificate Online Option Safety Pharmacology Osteopathic Med grad certificate Online Option Serious Game Design and Research Communication Arts & Science grad certificate Online Option Teaching and Learning in Postsecondary Education Education grad certificate Online Option Youth Development Specialist Education grad certificate Online Option Youth Program Management and Evaluation Education grad certificate Online Option Source: Chmura Economics & Analytics Hybrid/Dual-Degree Offerings MSU graduated more than 1,400 master s-level students last year in over 50 separate programs, but offers little in the way of joint or dual master s degrees. Several doctoral level-programs in medicine and veterinary sciences allow for a joint professional doctoral degree and PhD. MSU offers about a dozen direct bachelor s-tomaster s programs in several of its science-based colleges Wayne State University Wayne State University (WSU) has one main campus and five small extension campuses all located in southeastern Michigan three in Macomb County, one in Wayne County, and one in Oakland County. These satellite locations offer a limited number of undergraduate programs and some graduate programs mostly in education and business. While WSU remains heavy in its market share at the graduate level (particularly for master s degrees) it has steadily been curtailing its graduate-level programs over the past decade. WSU now graduates approximately 400 fewer master s degree students per year now than it did in the academic year. Online Programs WSU offers a full online bachelor s degree program in social work as well two fully-online master s programs in Education and one master s degree in Library & Information Science. Five graduate-level certificates can also be earned fully-online. In contrast to UoM, WSU s partially-online MBA program has not helped in maintaining its market share this field. Market Analysis Eastern Michigan University 56

59 6. Market Share Analysis and Primary Competitors Figure 6.19 Online Offerings at the Wayne State University Program School Level Delivery Trend Social Work Social Work bachelor's Online Option Educational Instructional Technology Education master's Online Option Career & Technical Education Education master's Online Option Library & Information Sciences Library & Information Science master's Online Option Career & Technical Education Education grad certificate Online Option Communication & New Media Fine Arts & Communication grad certificate Online Option Public Library Services to Children & Young Adults Library & Information Science grad certificate Online Option Information Management for Librarians Library & Information Science grad certificate Online Option Records & Information Management Library & Information Science grad certificate Online Option Business Administration Business master's Partially-Online Transitional DPT Pharmacy & Health Sciences doctoral Partially-Online Online Teaching Education grad certificate Partially-Online College & University Teaching Education grad certificate Partially-Online Systems Engineering Engineering grad certificate Partially-Online Source: Chmura Economics & Analytics Hybrid/Dual-Degree Offerings WSU offers more than 50 separate master s degrees and nearly every corresponding undergraduate curriculum can be utilized in a 3+2 arrangement by which a direct bachelor s-to-master s program can be created. WSU offers great flexibility in this regard. Similarly, any two existing master s degree programs can be combined to produce a dual/joint degree so long as the student is accepted under normal procedures into both programs and that only 20% of the credit hours earned can be applied to both programs University of Toledo The University of Toledo (UoT) operates solely out of the greater Toledo area. Until 2006, UoT s facilities were almost exclusively located in downtown Toledo, but its merger with the former Medical School of Ohio created its Health Science campus in northwest Toledo. UoT also has a science facility in northeast Toledo. Online Programs UoT offers some of the most extensive online 2+2 programs of all of EMU s peer universities, with five separate colleges offering at least one 2+2 program. The most extensive is the Education, Health Science, and Human Service College which offers four separate 2+2 programs. At the master s degree level, UoT offers only six fully-online master s degree programs and one doctoral program. UoT s master s of engineering program has less than 40 students currently enrolled and its MBA program is only available partially-online. A small number of post-baccalaureate and graduate certificates are also available online. Figure 6.20 Online Offerings at the University of Toledo Program School Level Delivery Trend Applied Organizational Technology (Degree Completion) Business bachelor s 2+2 Online Option Market Analysis Eastern Michigan University 57

60 6. Market Share Analysis and Primary Competitors Program School Level Delivery Trend Computer Science and Engineering Technology (Degree Completion) Criminal Justice Early Childhood Education Fast-Track Degree Completion (Bachelor of Education, Non-Licensure) Health Care Administration (Degree Completion) Health Information Administration (Degree Completion) Information Technology (Degree Completion, Engineering) Engineering bachelor s 2+2 Online Option Education, Health & Human Service Education, Health & Human Service Education, Health & Human Service Education, Health & Human Service bachelor's bachelor s 2+2 bachelor s 2+2 bachelor s 2+2 Partially-Online Online Option Online Option Online Option Engineering bachelor s 2+2 Online Option Interdisciplinary Studies Programs Arts & Science bachelor s 2+2 Online Option Liberal Studies Arts & Science bachelor's Partially-Online Nursing, RN to BSN Nursing bachelor s 2+2 Online Option Early Childhood Education (non-licensure) Education, Health & Human Service master's Online Option Engineering Engineering master's Online Option Liberal Studies Arts & Science master's Online Option Nurse Educator Nursing master's Online Option Recreation Administration Special Education/Early Childhood (ECIS) Education, Health & Human Service Education, Health & Human Service master's master's Online Option Online Option Business Administration Business master's Partially-Online Health Information Administration (CHIA) Education, Health & Human Service post baccalaureate Online Option Nurse Educator Certificate Program Nursing post baccalaureate Online Option Ohio Reading Endorsement Child Advocate Education, Health & Human Service Education, Health & Human Service post baccalaureate grad certificate Online Option Online Option Contemporary Gerontological Practice Nursing grad certificate Online Option Elder Law Law grad certificate Online Option Patient Advocate Education, Health & Human Service grad certificate Online Option Nursing Practice (MSN-DNP) Nursing doctoral Online Option Source: Chmura Economics & Analytics Hybrid/Dual-Degree Offerings UoT offers about a dozen dual degree programs, mostly confined to combinations between the Law School, Business School, and Medical School. However the Medical School also allows for MD/PhD with biomedical science and a JD degree can also be combined with a master s degree in public policy or criminal justice. UoT plans to begin offering mostly likely in a new 5-year program that will allow students to receive a BS in Biological Sciences and an MS in Biomedical Sciences with a concentration in Bioinformatics & Proteomics/Genomics. Market Analysis Eastern Michigan University 58

61 6. Market Share Analysis and Primary Competitors Oakland University Oakland University (Oakland) began as a satellite campus of Michigan State University and its main campus is in Auburn Hills, a suburb of Detroit. Oakland operates two small satellite campuses in Macomb County Mount Clemens and Clinton Township that offer a limited number of undergraduate and graduate programs. Online Programs Oakland offers two fully-online bachelor s degree programs, one of which is in integrative studies, a flexible, multi-disciplinary program that can be customized to the needs of the student and is designed to attract both non-traditional students and adult learners. Oakland s undergraduate nursing program (that includes the online 2+2 program) has quadrupled over the past decade, graduating over 400 RNs in compared to just over 100 in Additionally, Oakland s programs in educational leadership have also seen steady gains in the past five years. Meanwhile, Oakland s MBA program, a portion of which can be earned online, is down roughly 15% over the past decade. Figure 6.21 Online Offerings at the Oakland University Program School Level Delivery Trend Occupational Safety Health Sciences bachelor's Online Option Nursing Nursing Bachelor s 2+2 Online Option Integrative Studies Education bachelor's Online Option Information Technology Management Business Analytics Business master's Partially-Online Business Administration (MBA) Business master's Partially-Online Special Education with Concentration in Autism Spectrum Disorder Education master's Online Option Teacher Leadership Education master's Online Option Engineering Management Engineering master's Online Option Safety Management Health Sciences master's Online Option Family Nurse Practitioner Nursing master's Partially-Online Adult/Gerontological Nurse Practitioner Nursing master's Partially-Online Nurse Anesthesia Nursing master s Partially-Online Nursing Practice (DNP) Nursing doctorate Partially-Online Education Specialist in K-12 Leadership Education doctorate Online Option Autism Spectrum Disorder Education grad certificate Online Option International Education Certificate Education grad certificate Online Option Oncology Rehabilitation Health Sciences grad certificate Partially-Online Family Nurse Practitioner Nursing grad certificate Partially-Online Adult/Gerontological Nurse Practitioner Nursing grad certificate Partially-Online Source: Chmura Economics & Analytics Hybrid/Dual-Degree Offerings Oakland offers a limited number of joint or dual degree programs. These include coupling a JD with either an MBA or a master s degree in public administration. Oakland also has a direct bachelor s-to-master s program in the Information Technology Management Program. Market Analysis Eastern Michigan University 59

62 6. Market Share Analysis and Primary Competitors Central Michigan University Central Michigan University (CMU) is one of the most geographically far-reaching institutions of EMU s regional peer competitors. CMU s global campus includes three metro satellite campus clusters in Detroit, Atlanta, and Washington DC. CMU also maintains a presence at 21 military bases in 13 separate states, and CMU has a formal partnership with six Canadian colleges and one university in Mexico. Online Programs CMU offers the most extensive online bachelor s degree programs including five full-time bachelor s degrees. Two of these degrees (psychology and community development) have seen large increases in awards over the past five years. Over 1,000 students are currently enrolled in one of CMU s online bachelor s degree programs. Conversely, despite high rankings for its online business program, which offers several specialties, the overall number of graduates in these programs is down over the past five years and currently about 208 students are enrolled online in one of its business programs Chmura estimates this to be about 1/3 of CMU s current enrollment. CMU s online master s programs in education, similarly, have not contributed meaningfully to expanding enrollment in these programs. Currently about 260 students are enrolled in one of CMU s four education-oriented online master s degrees. Figure 6.22 Online Offerings at the Central Michigan University Program School Level Delivery Trend Building Code Administration Applied Arts bachelor's Partially-Online Organization Administration Applied Arts bachelor's Partially-Online Leadership Studies Arts & Sciences bachelor's Partially-Online Psychology Arts & Sciences bachelor's Online Option Community Services Arts & Sciences bachelor s 2+2 Online Option Health Science Arts & Sciences bachelor s 2+2 Online Option Public Administration Arts & Sciences bachelor's Partially-Online Instruction/Curriculum Education master's Online Option Education Technology Education master's Online Option School Principalship Education master's Online Option Teacher Leadership Education master's Online Option Business Administration (MBA) Business master's Online Option Human Resource Administration Business master's Online Option Information Administration Business master's Online Option Nutrition & Dietetics Health Admin master's Online Option Social Media Arts & Sciences post baccalaureate Online Option ERP Graduate Certificate using SAP Software Business grad certificate Online Option General Administration Business grad certificate Online Option Human Resources Administration Business grad certificate Online Option Information Resource Management Business grad certificate Online Option International Administration Business grad certificate Online Option International Health Health Admin grad certificate Online Option Leadership Education grad certificate Online Option Market Analysis Eastern Michigan University 60

63 6. Market Share Analysis and Primary Competitors Program School Level Delivery Trend Logistics Management Graduate Certificate Source: Chmura Economics & Analytics Business grad certificate Online Option Hybrid/Dual-Degree Offerings CMU has recently cut seven master s degree programs and currently offers no dual-degree masters programs. However, CMU offers direct bachelors-to-masters programs in eleven separate programs: Apparel Product Development & Merchandising Technology Business (MBA) Accounting Computer Science Economics Geographic Information Science History Human Development and Family Studies Mathematics Political Science Psychology, Experimental Spanish Bowling Green State University Bowling Green State University (BGSU) has two campuses located in western and central Ohio. BGSU also has a small satellite campus in Sandusky (northwestern Ohio), which offers its MBA and master s in public administration programs. Online Programs BGSU offers five separate 2+2 programs, but only its bachelor s in Liberal Arts program has shown any growth over the past decade. At the graduate level, BGSU s master s programs in education are the largest and are nationally recognized for their quality. Currently, about 300 students are in enrolled in one of the six online programs. Figure 6.23 Online Offerings at Bowling Green State University Program School Level Delivery Trend Fire & Emergency Management Administration Advanced Technological Education (ATE) Arts & Science bachelor s 2+2 Online Option Technology bachelor s 2+2 Online Option Quality Systems Technology bachelor s 2+2 Online Option Liberal Studies Arts & Science bachelor s 2+2 Online Option Nursing RN/BSN Completion Nursing/Health bachelor s 2+2 Online Option Teaching Biology Specialization in Interdisciplinary Science Education/Human Development master's Online Option Market Analysis Eastern Michigan University 61

64 6. Market Share Analysis and Primary Competitors Program School Level Delivery Trend English, Plan II (non-thesis) Education/Human Development master's Online Option Business (and Marketing) Education Computer Technology Endorsement Certificate Arts & Science master's Online Option Classroom Technology Arts & Science master's Online Option Curriculum and Teaching Education/Human Development master's Online Option Special Education Assistive Technology Specialization Education/Human Development master's Online Option Learning Design Education/Human Development master's Online Option Family and Consumer Sciences Food and Nutrition Specialization Education/Human Development master's Online Option Organization Development Business master's Partially-Online Business Administration (MBA) Business master's Partially-Online Technology Management Technology doctorate Online Option Assistive Technology Nursing/Health grad certificate Online Option Autism Spectrum Disorders Education/Human Development grad certificate Online Option Computer Technology Endorsement Technology grad certificate Online Option International Scientific & Technical Communication Technology grad certificate Online Option Food and Nutrition Nursing/Health grad certificate Online Option Quality Systems Technology grad certificate Online Option Women's Studies Certificate Arts & Science grad certificate Partially-Online Early Childhood Generalist Endorsement Education/Human Development grad certificate Online Option Middle Childhood Generalist Endorsement Education/Human Development grad certificate Online Option Ohio Reading Endorsement Program Education/Human Development grad certificate Partially-Online Source: Chmura Economics & Analytics Hybrid/Dual-Degree Offerings BGSU has a great deal of flexibility in its dual-degree programs. Most of its master s programs can be combined so long as the student completes more than 40+ semester hours (split relatively evenly between the two programs), and completes six semester hours of thesis writing. If the dual master s degrees are in a professional program that does not require a thesis, then approximately 50 semester hours are required. Normal master s degree programs require about 30+ semester hours for completion Grand Valley State University Grand Valley State University (GVSU) has four campuses in the greater Grand Rapids region and one satellite campus in Traverse City. The Traverse City campus offers a limited number of undergraduate programs and a half dozen master s degree programs primarily in health and education-related fields. Online Programs GVSU offers no degree programs fully-online, but offers some individual courses at both the graduate level and undergraduate level either fully-online or at least partially-online. Market Analysis Eastern Michigan University 62

65 6. Market Share Analysis and Primary Competitors Hybrid/Dual Degree Offerings GVSU offers 30 graduate programs, but only offers a few dual or joint degree master s degree programs, such as MA in social work and master s in public administration. GVSU does offer a direct bachelor s-to-doctorate in pharmacy where the bachelor s degree is awarded by GVSU and a PharmD is awarded by the University of Michigan. GVSU offers a similar program with the Michigan State University College of Law with a direct bachelor s-to-jd program. Market Analysis Eastern Michigan University 63

66 7. Niche Markets 7. Niche Markets 7.1. Transfer Students & Programs EMU offers several bachelor s and graduate programs that would belong to natural career ladders, such as in the areas of healthcare, education, science and math, computers and electronics, and general business. These are areas where logical and well-established career paths exist and whereby advancement is largely preconditioned by the level of formal education one has received. Because of this natural or established progression, there is an opportunity for EMU to build upon its core strengths and potentially develop programs and curriculums to help those at the associate s degree-level of education upskill to a bachelor s degree in order to enhance their long-term earnings potential. Chmura analyzed the select programs in the EMU Expanded Region to determine the market potential for EMU to offer 2+2 programs. Overall, roughly 37,500 associate s degrees were earned in this region in the academic year, representing 533 distinct programs. Combining the existing associate s degree programs already present in this region with EMU s existing program offerings 32 yields a potential of 107 separate 2+2 type programs that could be implemented by EMU. Chmura further refined the list of 107 by examining which of the potential 2+2 programs (1) are degrees that have been trending upwards over the past decade, 33 (2) have sufficient supply of associate s degree awards, 34 suggesting sufficient demand for the creation of a 2+2 program by EMU, and (3) are likely to feed into a highgrowth, high-wage occupation. This analysis results in twelve potential 2+2 programs that would most leverage the existing core strengths of EMU so it could profitably build market share in all key markets (see Figure 7.1). Some consideration should be given to making a portion of any of these new 2+2 programs virtual by allowing for the option of some online-based instruction. EMU already has fully developed this model for its 2+2 program for a bachelor s degree in nursing, applied technology, business, and technology management. Figure 7.1 EMU Potential 2 +2 Programs CIP Code Program Existing EMU Associate s Degree Awards % Change AS High-Growth & High-Wage Registered Nursing/Registered Nurse 3, % General Studies 3,654 68% Business/Commerce, General 1,009 33% 32 Same or closely related CIP code. 33 Defined as % change of the average number of degrees ( ) and ( ). 34 Defined as at least 50 associate s degree awards granted in academic year in the Expanded Region. Market Analysis Eastern Michigan University 64

67 7. Niche Markets CIP Code Program Existing EMU Associate s Degree Awards % Change AS High-Growth & High-Wage Electrical, Electronic and Communications Engineering Technology/Technician % Legal Assistant/Paralegal % Social Sciences, General % Art/Art Studies, General % CAD/CADD Drafting and/or Design Technology/Technician % Biology/Biological Sciences, General % Elementary Education and Teaching % Human Resources Management/Personnel Administration, General % Engineering Technology, General % Social Work % Interior Design % Computer and Information Systems Security % Office Management and Supervision 89 28% Entrepreneurship/Entrepreneurial Studies Construction Engineering Technology/Technician Health/Health Care Administration/Management Animation, Interactive Technology, Video Graphics and Special Effects 86 60% % % % Community Organization and Advocacy % Accounting and Related Services, Other % Biological and Physical Sciences 52 61% Source: Chmura Economics & Analytics 7.3. Graduate Program Mix This section is designed to inform the relative mix of EMU degree offerings in terms of the level of education bachelor s degree, master s degree, or doctoral. This analysis compares the EMU degree mix to the educational attainment mix of related occupations as derived from national survey data collected by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Educational attainment data derived from Table 1.12 from the 2010 Employment Projections Program of the BLS; which is derived from the BLS/Census ACS survey. Market Analysis Eastern Michigan University 65

68 7. Niche Markets This analysis focuses on occupations where the training concentration a proxy for equilibrium of supply and demand is at or below 100%, where EMU has a program that would naturally feed into the occupation in question and would normally require an advanced degree (bachelor s degree or above) to gain employment. Figure 7.2 contains 15 degree programs at EMU crosswalked to the primary occupations into which these programs naturally flow. In general, the relative mix of undergraduate to graduate-level programs corresponds well given the typical employment profile for the select occupations. However, expansion opportunities may exist, such as the addition of a master s degree program in Speech Language Pathology, Journalism, Geology & Earth Science, and Public Relations & Image Management with an emphasis on fundraising. While a few management and education occupations are seemingly underserved by the regional educational providers, Chmura judges these academic fields to be very competitive and offer only limited space to increase program offerings. Figure 7.2: Occupation Educational Attainment versus Level- Mix of EMU Awards SOC/CIP Occupations/Degree Programs Bachelor s degree Master s degree Geographers 37% 37% Cartographers and Photogrammetrists 60% 13% Geographic Information Science and Cartography 42% 58% Geoscientists, Except Hydrologists and Geographers 48% 36% Hydrologists 48% 36% Geology/Earth Science, General 100% 0% Industrial-Organizational Psychologists 4% 45% Psychology, General 99% 1% Registered Nurses* 43% 10% Registered Nursing/Registered Nurse 91% 9% Public Relations and Fundraising Managers 49% 21% Public Relations/Image Management 100% 0% Life Scientists, All Other 6% 29% Biology/Biological Sciences, General 89% 11% Speech-Language Pathologists 9% 87% Speech-Language Pathology/Pathologist 100% 0% Probation Officers and Correctional Treatment Specialists 38% 14% Social Work 66% 33% Economists 25% 41% Survey Researchers 49% 26% Economics, General 87% 13% Statistics, General 0% 100% Mathematics, General 100% Editors 57% 20% Reporters and Correspondents 61% 18% Journalism 100% 0% Career/Technical Education Teachers, Middle School 47% 45% Career/Technical Education Teachers, Secondary School 45% 47% Adult Basic and Secondary Education and Literacy Teachers and Instructors 35% 20% Market Analysis Eastern Michigan University 66

69 7. Niche Markets SOC/CIP Occupations/Degree Programs Bachelor s degree Master s degree Kindergarten Teachers, Except Special Education 33% 12% Preschool Teachers, Except Special Education 33% 12% Education Administrators, Elementary and Secondary School 22% 45% Education Administrators, All Other 22% 45% All Education Programs 66% 35% Sales Managers 48% 17% Chief Executives 39% 19% General and Operations Managers 34% 12% Management Analysts 41% 29% Construction Managers 24% 5% Industrial Production Managers 31% 11% Insurance Underwriters 43% 6% All Business Programs 71% 29% Note: figures may not sum due to rounding. *Occupation mix per national 2009 data. Source: Chmura Economics & Analytics, NCES, and BLS International Students International students represent a growing marketing opportunity for EMU. The population of foreign students has been expanding rapidly, especially from Asian countries such as China and India. While foreign students are especially attracted to the field of engineering (not a core area of strength at EMU), international student interests do align with other programs of study at EMU including business, physical sciences, and health care whereby EMU can expand enrollment if it were to expand and approach national norms in foreign student participation. The population of foreign students has grown fairly steadily in the United States over the last three decades with a dramatic surge over the last few years. From 1981 to 2006, 36 foreign student enrollment in US higher education institutions expanded 81% from 311,880 to 564,766. From 2006 to 2010, however, foreign student enrollment jumped 22% further to 690, All year references in this section refer to the end of an academic year; e.g refers to the academic year. Market Analysis Eastern Michigan University 67

70 7. Niche Markets Figure 7.3: Foreign Student Enrollment in US Higher Education Instituions 800, , , , , , , Source: NCES Per doctoral degree data, it is clear that foreign students in the United States are disproportionately distributed across fields of study. For example, in 2009, 74% of doctoral degrees earned by temporary visa holders in the United States were in three fields: engineering, physical sciences (including computer and mathematics), and life sciences (which includes agricultural and health sciences). Figure 7.4: Doctoral Earned by International Students in the US (2009) All Students Temporary Visa Holders Number of Doctoral Conferred Percentage Number All Fields 49,562 30% 14,720 Education 6,531 9% 568 Engineering 7,634 55% 4,211 Humanities 4,899 15% 725 Life Sciences 11,402 27% 3,099 Physical Sciences 8,331 42% 3,530 Social Sciences and Psychology 7,836 22% 1,707 Business & Management 1,403 38% 527 Other Fields 1,526 23% 354 TOTAL 49,562 14,720 Source: NCES Growth in international doctoral degrees has also varied dramatically by field of study. Between 1979 and 2009, the number of awards to temporary visa holders increased by more than a factor of five in engineering and physical sciences and by more than a factor of four in life sciences. Education has been a relatively slowgrowing field, increasing from 484 awards in 1979 to 570 in Market Analysis Eastern Michigan University 68

71 7. Niche Markets Figure 7.5: Doctoral Awards to Temporary Visa Holders 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Life Sciences Physical Sciences Social Sciences Engineering Education Humanities Other Fields Source: NSF/NIH/USED/USDA/NEH/NASA, 2009 Survey of Earned Doctorates. In Fall 2011, 692 non-resident aliens were enrolled at EMU. A little over half of these were from one of four countries: China, Saudi Arabia, India, and South Korea countries exhibiting a variety of recent enrollment trends nationwide. While overall foreign student enrollment in the United States grew 22% from 2006 to 2010, Chinese enrollment doubled with a 104% expansion. Indian enrollment in the United States also grew faster than average with 37% growth over this period, while South Korean enrollment grew about the average pace at 22%. From 2006 to 2010, Saudi Arabian enrollment jumped dramatically from 3,448 to 15,810. However, this jump in enrollment is attributed to the low enrollment numbers from 2006, considering that in 1981 enrollment was 10,400. Figure 7.6: Fall 2011, EMU Non-Resident Alien Visa Nation Description China % Saudi Arabia % India 85 12% South Korea 42 6% Other (including unknown) % Total % Source: EMU EMU s mix of non-resident alien students is comparable to the nationwide average for both Chinese and Indian students, but is above average for Saudi Arabian students. Chinese and Indian students account for 18% and 15%, respectively, of enrolled higher education students in the United States, 37 not far off the 17% and 12% mix, respectively, of these students at EMU. However, Saudi Arabians account for about 2% of foreign enrolled 37 National enrollment figures are for Market Analysis Eastern Michigan University 69

72 7. Niche Markets students in the United States, far less than the 16% mix at EMU. The 6% mix of South Korean students at EMU is a bit below the national norm of 10%. 38 Michigan is not one of the top states for nonimmigrant students. The top three states by volume are California (147,401 active students), New York (103,630), and Texas (64,887). Michigan, by contrast, has less than 30,000 active students. 39 EMU s mix of foreign students is about evenly split between graduates and undergraduates. In Fall 2011, 345 of the school s non-resident foreign students were undergraduates and 347 were graduates. By far, the largest program major for foreign students is the field of business and management, constituting a foreign enrollment of 277 or 40% of total foreign students at EMU. The next-largest fields of study for foreign students at EMU are engineering technologies, health professions, and education. 38 The Student Exchange Visitor Program, however, has alternative data. Per the SEVP Quarterly Review: January March 2012, the top four countries of citizenship of nonimmigrant students were, in this order: China, South Korea, India, and Saudi Arabia. 39 Source: SEVP Quarterly Review: January March 2012; data retrieved April 2, Market Analysis Eastern Michigan University 70

73 7. Niche Markets Figure 7.7: EMU Foreign Non-Resident Program Majors, Fall 2011 CIP 2-Digit Level Description Graduate Undergraduate Total 52 Business, Management, Marketing, and Related Support Services Engineering Technologies/Technicians Health Professions and Related Clinical Sciences Education Visual and Performing Arts Computer and Information Sciences and Support Services Biological and Biomedical Sciences Social Sciences Guest/Self Improvement Undeclared Physical Sciences Foreign Languages, Literatures, Linguistics Psychology Intensive English Language Mathematics Engineering All Others Total Source: EMU While EMU s foreign students comprise 7.4% of the school s total postgraduate enrollment, the mix of foreign students by field varies considerably. Foreign students account for 25.0% of EMU s postgraduate enrollment in physical sciences (including computer and mathematics) and 20.1% of EMU s postgraduate enrollment in business and administration. When the mix of EMU postgraduate enrollment is compared to national figures (using foreign student mix in doctoral awards as a proxy), the EMU mix of foreign enrollment is lower in every field of study. If the mix of EMU matched these national targets keeping the number of domestic students constant the school would add an additional 718 foreign postgraduate students. For example, if the mix of physical sciences postgraduate students rose from 25.0% to 42.4%, EMU would have a total of 66 foreign students along with the existing 90 domestic students thus, an increase of 36 foreign students in this field. Using these targets, the largest gains by field would be in business and management (+172 students), life sciences (+98), and education (+96). Market Analysis Eastern Michigan University 71

74 7. Niche Markets Figure 7.8: Postgraduate Foreign Enrollment vs. National Targets Postgraduate Enrollment, Fall 2011 Program Foreign Total % Foreign National Doctoral Awards, 2009, % Foreign Foreign Enrollment Gain to Match National % Business and Management % 37.6% 172 Education 30 1, % 8.7% 96 Life Sciences (including Health Sciences) % 27.2% 98 Physical Sciences (including Computers and Mathematics) % 42.4% 36 Social Sciences (including Psychology) % 21.8% 62 Other 104 1, % 16.8% 253 Total 347 4, Source data: EMU and NCES 7.5. Select Graduate Certificates More than 700 separate types of graduate certificates were awarded in the United States in 2011, but not all certificate programs instill real value. At their best, they provide a quality check and ensure the holder has mastered some minimum level of industry-specific skills that can be applied directly to one or several occupations. Some feature the added value of providing an interim step between an undergraduate and a formal graduate degree. In some fields, these certifications are nice to have in that they serve as a signal to differentiate quality; in other fields they can be mandatory, as is the case in most medical or education-related careers. Currently, the graduate certificate market is dominated by teaching certificates and other educationrelated certifications. Nearly half of the nearly 54,000 graduate certificates awarded across the United States were directly related to teacher certification or other education-related certification. While education-related certification is by far the most common almost 70% of the top 25 certificate awards were in the education field non-degree graduate certificates in business, human resources, and accounting were also quite popular and accounted for 3.5% of all certificates awarded nationally in Most certificate programs at the university level would feature some for credit classes that would serve as the stepping stone for eventual enrollment in a formal graduate program while they simultaneously prepare a student for eventual accreditation by either a state licensing board (e.g. Michigan Board of Nursing) or a professional organization (e.g. American Institute of Certified Public Accounts). In both the Core and Expanded regions, however, certificates are being earned at nearly double the national rate, which suggest little room for additional certificate expansion. The computer and information technology (IT) field features a hybrid model whereby universities commonly award non-degree, computer-related certificates (830 such certificates were awarded in 2010) that primarily provide some quasi-specific computer training and serve as a bridge to a formal IT graduate program, while up to 70 industry-specific certifications simultaneously exist for various IT technologies and platforms. The value and the number of these IT-related certifications fluctuates on a continual basis; as new technologies supplant older ones, the value of the previously earned IT certifications is diminished. EMU already has certificates in the fields of human resources, IT, and finance. These types of certificate programs (accounting and human resources) can simultaneously offer preparation for established professional Market Analysis Eastern Michigan University 72

75 7. Niche Markets accreditation exams (CPA, PHR, or CCP 40 ) as well as provide an interim step particularly important to adult learners/students 41 between a bachelor s degree and enrolling in a formal master s degree program. In the business and finance fields, a certificate program that blends traditional accounting and financing training with the preparation to eventually take all or portions of the CFA or CFP exams 42 could also serve as an interim step for adult learners considering enrolling in a full MBA program. Unfortunately, in the field of computer science and information technology, the data indicates there is little market space in the region Offsite Markets Greater Traverse City Region The greater Traverse City region 43 is not home to any permanent four-year institution of higher education. The region is home to the Northwestern Michigan College (NMCa publically-funded community college which houses the NMC University Center, which serves as a satellite location for ten Michigan-based universities including EMU. In the school year, these ten universities combined to award 267 bachelor s degrees and 141 master s degrees. NMC itself awarded 705 associate s degrees in , of which more than half were in either Liberal Arts (311) or registered nursing (73). Because the bachelor s degrees and master s degrees are awarded via satellite locations, there is no way to gauge the relative mix of these degrees in terms of STEM+ occupations and high-growth, high-wage jobs. However, based on just the population of Grand Traverse County alone, this level of postsecondary degree production is low (see Figure 7.10). This is despite the fact that the region is roughly on par for state and national level norms for education attainment (see Figure 7.9). This highly suggests that as many as 1,000 bachelor s degree candidates and 500 master s level candidates seek educational opportunities outside of the region and then subsequently return home for employment. 44 Additionally, given the industry mix of this area and its expected population growth, this area should grow faster than the rest of Michigan, which suggests market opportunity for gaining regional market share. These growth prospects coupled with an analysis of the degree production by broad occupational groupings (see figure 7.12) suggests that most of EMU s core programs at the bachelor s and master s degree level would be successful in this market. 40 CPA: Certified Public Accountant; PHR: Professional in Human Resources; CCP: Certified Compensation Professional. 41 Framing New Terrain: Older Adults & Higher Education. American Council on Education, October Framing New Terrain: Older Adults & Higher Education. American Council on Education, October Defined as the counties of Grand Traverse, Leelanau, Benzie, Kalkaska, Wexford, Antrim, and Manistee. 44 An alternate explanation would be that the region imports (on the same scale) highly-educated workers that both grew up and were educated elsewhere, or a combination of both. Market Analysis Eastern Michigan University 73

76 7. Niche Markets Figure 7.9 Educational Attainment Comparison of the Greater Traverse City Region Educational Attainment Grand Traverse County Greater Traverse City Region Michigan USA Educational Attainment: Associate's Degree (25 years and over) 10.0% 8.7% 8.1% 7.5% Educational Attainment: Bachelor's Degree (25 years and over) 18.6% 15.5% 15.5% 17.6% Educational Attainment: Post Graduate Degree (25 years and over) 10.3% 9.1% 9.6% 10.3% Source: US Census- ACS Figure 7.10: Postsecondary Awards per Capita, w/ Grand Traverse County Awards per thousand population Four-Year Postgraduate EMU Core Region EMU Expanded Region USA Greater Traverse City Region Source: NCES and Chmura Economics & Analytics Market Analysis Eastern Michigan University 74

77 7. Niche Markets Figure 7.11 Industry Cluster Growth Projections Scaled by Employment Location Quotient Figure 7.12 Training Greater Traverse City Region SOC Code 2-Digit Degree Program Training Concentration 11 Management <60% 13 Business and Financial Operations <60% 15 Computer and Mathematical 70% 17 Architecture and Engineering <60% 19 Life, Physical, and Social Science <60% 21 Community and Social Service <60% 23 Legal <60% 25 Education, Training, and Library <60% 27 Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media <60% 29 Healthcare Practitioners and Technical <60% 31 Healthcare Support <60% 33 Protective Service <60% 35 Food Preparation and Serving Related 153% 37 Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance 80% 39 Personal Care and Service <60% Market Analysis Eastern Michigan University 75