PXE Event Prague 14 July Illiquid power markets, TA can it be used at all? Frank O. Brannvoll

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1 PXE Event Prague 14 July 2011 Illiquid power markets, TA can it be used at all? Frank O. Brannvoll

2 European Illiquid Power Markets 2011 GDF SUEZ Trading (Electrabel ) Nordpool Definitions: Market maker: committed 2 way prices / exchanges Market support: OTC and exchange pricing PL Market participant: Ad hoc OTC & exchanges FR DE CH Central, South East (CSE) CZ SK AU HU SL RO IT Transit BG PT SP GR South,South East (SSE) 2

3 The big picture Future scenarios for Power markets Reminder of the EMS currencies to Euro...? The creation of Regional markets as a necessary intermediate step In 2006 ERGEG created 10 Regional initiatives (RIs) (7 electricity) National markets Regional markets 1 2 now A pan-european market 3 3

4 Big Picture Price conversion in the region Even if no fundamental reasons, forward price movements are quite similar in a central block Again, Polish and Romanian prices seem to follow different flatter patterns Fundamentally difficult to explain such correlated behaviours... but they are converging Germany: 50 Austria: 50 Hungary: 49 Slovak Rep: 48 Czech Rep: 48 Poland: 47 Romania: Germany Austria Czech Rep. Slovak Rep. Hungary Poland Romania 01/ / / / / / / / /2010 DE AT CZ SK HU PL RO German and Austrian prices are fully aligned Fully aligned (market coupling) On average trading at a ~2 /MWh discount compared to German prices Follow German prices very closely On average a 1 /MWh discount throughout 2010 Different pattern, sometimes anticorrelated to German prices The lowest prices in the region Flat and rather independent pattern 4

5 Another view of the markets / July 2011 Year-ahead Prices compared to Germany Traded Markets = Germany Traded Markets < to Germany LI Traded Markets > to Germany Official market makers BE Upcoming Markets Cross-border trading BE NL DE (57) CZ (55) PL (50) UR SK (55) AU (58) FR (58) CH (63) SL (58) HU (57) RO (48) IT (74) SE (56) BU (48) MK PT 53 SP (53) AL GR (56) TR no LT market 5

6 TA : We always start with these ones. Oil Coal Oil overall energy, Coal Germany and regional Weekly Brent prices in USD and Coal ARA 6

7 Basic for all German Power Spreads to Germany is traded in longer tenors ( like DEM in former EMS ) German Power Year ahead 7

8 Liquidity / Illiquid markets Market depth for Cal +1 = 2012 most traded contract A snapshot of our trading screen : Germany Czk Hungary Poland Romania 8

9 Power : Czk and Hungarian Year ahead CZK Base load HUN Base load Stochastic works well 9

10 Power : Poland in Pln and Romania in RON ( here FX plays a role in priceformation) Poland still shadowing trends? Not exactly the same.. 10

11 The Illiquids. Czk, Hun, Pol, Rom Follow overall same patterns as Germany. Possible to use sup res lines works quite well Stochastic on weekly basis gives good early warnings With lack of trades per day..candles can be hard to use Sometimes 1 2 trades a day (Romania) line tell the story Formations SHS, double tripple tops..not trust worthy, only as indicators Moving average not used what so ever by any one Leave opportunities in spread trading Decide if market to be used as long or short compared to german power Trading spreads against each other benchmark Germany In very illiquid : Romania not yet fully usefull Often event gaps..new level without trading in between 11

12 Convergence trend and trend and channel German Czech Front year spread 12

13 Stable spread intra region Hungary Czech - Front year spread 13

14 Southern markets we see convergence trends Italy-Spain Front year spread from 30 euro to 18..now 23 (?) Daily QBY1IT-1Y; QOMIPFTBYc1 Spread; QBY1IT-1Y; Last Trade(Last); QOMIPFTBYc1; Last Trade(Last); 1,0; 1,0; 13/07/2011; 23,50 22/12/ /11/2011 (UTC) Value EUR MWh 30 29, , , ,5 26? 25, , , , , , , ,21 18,5 18 jan feb mrt apr mei jun jul aug sep okt nov dec jan feb mrt apr mei jun jul aug sep okt nov dec jan feb mrt apr mei jun jul aug sep okt nov Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q , ,

15 South East, neighbours Romania Hungary.. here a export fee is reason for difference In Euro terms romania do follow trends.lack 15

16 Summary Technical analyse used in it s simplest form works We are using: line chart, resistance & support lines Sophisticated for us is slow stocastic as early indicator..but weekly basis / can be hard to base trades on. The increased correlation to germany means spread is traded much more active now than 1-2 years ago TA in the spreads do work, and yes we use it ourself Still in short tenors these markets are very fundamental can create big gaps / spikes Trading / convergence and TA position often taken on longer Cal + 1 tenors 16

17 Thank You for your attention Your Questions, Please! 17

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