Leifheit AG European Mid-Cap Household & Personal Care

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1 Solid results, guidance slightly raised Solid results, attractive valuation: Leifheit has released solid results with accelerating growth and improving underlying profitability in Q Guidance was slightly raised, though we leave our estimates unchanged as we are still slightly ahead of earnings guidance. At 10x cash-adjusted P/E 2016E and 4% dividend yield, the valuation is attractive. Our DCF-based price target of EUR60.00 indicates 26% upside potential; Buy. Accelerating top-line growth: Sales came in at EUR55m, up 5.3% yoy in Q (H1 2015: EUR113m, up 4.6% yoy). The Brand division was the key growth driver with sales of EUR46m, up 7% yoy (versus 5% in Q1 2015). Cleaning and laundry care the most profitable segments performed best, driven by new and recent product launches (including a window vacuum cleaner). We expect the growth momentum to further improve in 2016 after numerous measures initiated by the CEO over the last 12 months. Improving underlying profitability: Over the last few years, management has optimised the cost structure and invested in new capacities, thus incremental sales have a c20% EBIT margin versus the group average of below 10%. This operating leverage is evident also in the H1 results with EBIT ex-fx growing at 11.7% yoy in Q (H1 2015: 11.3%) twice the growth of sales. FX is an important factor, however, and H reported EUR2m FX gains, leading to a reported EBIT of EUR10.4m, up 28% yoy, though FX losses in Q led to a 30% reported EBIT decline to EUR3m. The company is hedged until 2017E, and further portfolio/product optimisation should reduce its future USD sourcing exposure. Increased guidance: Strong momentum behind the Brand division was the main reason for the increase in sales growth guidance to 3-4% (old: 2-3%, Berenberg: 3%) on the group level and 4-5% (old: 3-4%, Berenberg: 4%) for the Brand division. Management guides for the upper end of a EUR19m- 20m EBIT range for At an EBIT of EUR21m (including FX) we feel comfortable with our estimates given management s track record of positive surprises. Strong balance sheet: The company has almost EUR60m in net cash (FY 2014). In terms of M&A, the aim is to acquire a European player with ceur100m of sales in , followed by acquisitions in the US and Asia with ceur50m of sales each. As Leifheit targets profitable companies and aims to pay no more than 8-10x EV/EBIT, we expect M&A to be up to 20% EPS-accretive. However, if no M&A is imminent, we expect the company to consider either a share buyback or a bonus dividend to optimise its capital structure. Y/E , EUR m Sales EBITDA EBIT* Net profit Y/E net debt (net cash) EPS (reported) EPS (recurring) CPS DPS Gross margin 43.0% 43.6% 44.9% 47.7% 48.3% 49.0% 49.1% EBITDA margin 9.5% 9.4% 10.7% 10.3% 10.2% 11.2% 11.3% EBIT margin 6.4% 6.5% 7.6% 7.4% 7.6% 8.5% 8.6% Dividend yield 6.6% 6.1% 5.5% 3.8% 3.9% 4.1% 4.3% ROCE 10.3% 9.3% 11.7% 11.2% 11.8% 13.7% 14.0% EV/sales EV/EBITDA EV/EBIT P/E Cash flow RoEV 5.2% 5.2% 6.1% 5.7% 6.1% 7.2% 7.4% Source: Company data, Berenberg, * EBIT excluding FX gains/ losses Anna Patrice, CFA Analyst anna.patrice@berenberg.com 12 August 2015 BUY Current price Price target EUR EUR /08/2015 XETRA Close Market cap (EUR m) 227 Reuters LEIG.DE Bloomberg LEI GY Changes made in this note Rating: Buy (no change) Price target: EUR (no change) Share data Shares outstanding (m) 5 Enterprise value (EUR m) 232 Daily trading volume 6,740 Key data Price/book value 2.3 Net gearing -64.8% CAGR sales % CAGR EPS %

2 BUY Investment thesis Strong position in niche markets: 12 August 2015 Current price Price target EUR EUR Market cap (EUR m) /08/2015 XETRA Close EV (EUR m) 232 Non-institutional shareholders MKV Verwaltungs: 10.0% Joachim Loh: 8.3% Leifheit: 5.0% Business description Manufacturer of household products in four segments: Laundry Care (40% of sales), Cleaning (22%), Wellbeing (14%) and Kitchen Goods (24%) Trading volume 6,740 Free float 65.5% Share performance High 52 weeks EUR Low 52 weeks EUR Performance relative to SXXP SDAX 1mth 4.0% 3.5% 3mth -2.6% -6.4% 12mth 13.3% 3.9% Strong position in niche markets: Leifheit is a leading German player in the niche sub-segments of durable consumer goods, such as drying racks, ironing boards, floor and window cleaning systems, kitchen goods and scales. Its tight focus on core segments and innovation has resulted in brand recognition for quality products, durability, convenience and a leading market position: it is number one in Laundry and Wellbeing, and number two in Cleaning in Germany. Slow top line, but margin improvement drives earnings: In the short term, growth is likely to be hit by overexposure to mature markets, at 86% of group sales. Margin improvement is the main growth driver of EPS growth, but it will be diluted slightly by an increasing tax rate from 23% in 2013 to c30% by 2017E. The gross margin is expected to improve by c50bp pa in E, following a 540bp improvement over We expect the gross margin to be supported by a high level of innovation with an increasing share of more sophisticated/premium products and further cost optimisation measures, including an increasing share of in-house production of ironing boards. Limited/normal investment results in an EBIT margin improvement to 8.6% by 2017E or by 1.2ppt from 7.4% in Our valuation is DCF-based. Profit and loss summary EURm E 2016E 2017E Revenues EBITDA EBITA EBIT Associates contribution Net interest Tax Minorities Net income adj EPS reported EPS adjusted Year end shares Average shares DPS Growth and margins E 2016E 2017E Revenue growth -1.5% -0.1% 3.2% 5.6% 4.5% EBITDA growth 12.0% -4.2% 2.7% 16.0% 4.7% EBIT growth 16.4% -2.6% 4.6% 19.2% 5.7% EPS adj growth 21.3% 2.4% 3.9% 21.7% 6.3% FCF growth % -5.2% -23.0% -4.5% -14.1% EBITDA margin 10.7% 10.3% 10.2% 11.2% 11.3% EBIT margin 7.6% 7.4% 7.6% 8.5% 8.6% Net income margin 4.6% 6.4% 6.0% 6.4% 5.6% FCF margin 8.8% 8.3% 6.2% 5.6% 4.6% Valuation metrics E 2016E 2017E P / adjusted EPS P / book value FCF yield 13.6% 8.1% 6.2% 6.0% 5.1% Dividend yield 5.5% 3.8% 3.9% 4.1% 4.3% EV / sales EV / EBITDA EV / EBIT EV / FCF EV / cap. employed Cash flow summary EURm E 2016E 2017E Net income Depreciation Working capital changes Other non-cash items Operating cash flow Capex FCFE Acquisitions, disposals Other investment CF Dividends paid Buybacks, issuance Change in net debt Net debt FCF per share Key ratios E 2016E 2017E Net debt / equity -51.2% -61.3% -64.8% -67.6% -67.6% Net debt / EBITDA Avg cost of debt 144.7% 138.5% 371.0% 373.7% 379.3% Tax rate 23.1% 28.7% 29.0% 29.0% 29.0% Interest cover Payout ratio 76.6% 60.6% 64.0% 60.2% 69.1% ROCE 11.7% 11.2% 11.8% 13.7% 14.0% Capex / sales 0.6% 4.1% 4.0% 3.0% 2.8% Capex / depreciation 52.4% 146.3% 149.6% 109.0% 107.6% Key risks to our investment thesis Slower-than-expected sales growth, given Leifheit s exposure to mature markets, is set to postpone EBIT margin expansion, as cost optimisation measures have mostly been carried out. FX represents a risk given the company s exposure to sourcing in Asia, while sales are mostly in the eurozone. Anna Patrice, CFA Analyst anna.patrice@berenberg.com

3 Q2/H results reported versus estimates Y/E: Q2 Q2 Q H1 H1 H margin EUR m Berenberg margin Berenberg Sales yoy in % -2.7% 5.3% 5% -1.9% 4.6% 4.3% EBIT ex FX yoy in % 66.7% 11.7% 17% 91.8% 11.3% 53.8% margin in % 7.1% 7.5% pp 7.9% 7.1% 7.5% pp 11.1% EBIT reported yoy in % 85.7% -30.1% -25% 62.7% 28.1% 53.8% margin in % 7.9% 5.2% pp 5.6% 7.5% 9.2% pp 11.1% Net profit yoy in % 83.7% -32.5% -29% 58.5% 31.7% 64.5% margin in % 5.1% 3.3% pp 3.5% 4.8% 6.0% pp 7.5% actual vs. est. 0% 2% 2% 1% Source: Company reports, Berenberg estimates 3

4 Financials Profit and loss account Year-end December(EUR m) E 2016E 2017E Sales Cost of sales Gross profit Sales and marketing General and administration Research and development Other operating income Other operating expenses Unusual or infrequent items EBITDA Depreciation EBITA Amortisation of goodwill Amortisation of intangible assets Impairment charges EBIT Interest income Interest expenses Other financial result Financial result Income on ordinary activities before taxes Extraordinary income/loss EBT Taxes Net income from continuing operations Income from discontinued operations (net of tax) Net income Minority interest Net income (net of minority interest) Source: Company data, Berenberg estimates 4

5 Balance sheet Year-end December (EUR m) E 2016E 2017E Intangible assets Property, plant and equipment Financial assets Fixed Assets Inventories Accounts receivable Other current assets Liquid assets Deferred taxes Other accruals Current Assets TOTAL Shareholders' equity Minority interest Long-term debt Pensions provisions Other provisions Non-current liabilities Short-term debt Accounts payable Advance payments Other liabilities Deferred taxes Other accruals Current liabilities TOTAL Source: Company data, Berenberg estimates 5

6 Cash flow statement EUR m E 2016E 2017E Net profit/loss Depreciation of fixed assets Amortisation of goodwill Amortisation of intangible assets Other Cash flow from operations before changes in w/c Change in inventory Change in accounts receivable Change in accounts payable Change in other working capital positions Change in working capital Cash flow from operating activities Maintenance capex Cash flow from operating activities after maintenance Capex, excluding maintenance Payments for acquisitions Financial investments Income from asset disposals Cash flow from investing activities Cash flow before financing Increase/decrease in debt position Purchase of own shares Capital measures Dividends paid Others Effects of exchange rate changes on cash Cash flow from financing activities Increase/decrease in liquid assets Liquid assets at end of period Source: Company data, Berenberg estimates Growth rates yoy (%) E 2016E 2017E Sales 5.3 % 0.9 % -1.5 % -0.1 % 3.2 % 5.6 % 4.5 % Organic 5.3 % 0.9 % 4.2 % 0.5 % 3.2 % 5.6 % 4.5 % External 0.0 % 0.0 % -5.7 % -0.6 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % EBITDA 26.7 % 0.2 % 12.0 % -4.2 % 2.7 % 16.0 % 4.7 % EBIT 47.5 % 0.9 % 14.1 % -3.3 % 4.3 % 18.0 % 5.4 % Net income % % 9.3 % 37.7 % -2.6 % 12.1 % -8.4 % EPS reported % % 9.3 % 38.0 % -2.7 % 12.1 % -8.4 % EPS recurring 77.5 % % 21.3 % 2.4 % 3.9 % 21.7 % 6.3 % Source: Company data, Berenberg estimates 6

7 Ratios Ratios E 2016E 2017E Asset utilisation efficiency Capital employed turnover Operating assets turnover Plant turnover Inventory turnover (sales/inventory) Operational efficiency Operating return 21.3% 19.1% 23.2% 21.8% 22.5% 25.4% 25.7% Total operating costs / sales 36.5% 37.1% 37.3% 40.2% 40.8% 40.5% 40.5% Sales per employee EBITDA per employee EBIT margin 6.4% 6.5% 7.6% 7.4% 7.6% 8.5% 8.6% Return on capital EBIT/ Y/E capital employed 20.5% 24.4% 36.5% 44.8% 49.8% 62.4% 63.9% EBIT / avg. capital employed 19.6% 22.4% 32.0% 39.7% 48.3% 60.8% 64.9% EBITDA/ Y/E capital employed 30.2% 35.7% 51.3% 61.9% 67.5% 82.3% 83.4% EBITDA / avg. capital employed 29.0% 32.8% 44.9% 54.7% 65.4% 80.2% 84.8% Return on equity Net profit / Y/E equity 12.2% 10.1% 10.8% 14.9% 14.0% 15.2% 13.5% Recurring net profit / Y/E equity 9.7% 9.1% 10.8% 11.0% 11.1% 13.1% 13.5% Net profit / avg. equity 12.1% 9.8% 10.9% 14.9% 14.2% 15.4% 13.7% Recurring net profit / avg. equity 9.6% 8.8% 10.9% 11.1% 11.3% 13.3% 13.7% Security Net debt (if net cash=0) Debt / equity -29.3% -36.0% -51.2% -61.3% -64.8% -67.6% -67.6% Net gearing -29.3% -36.0% -51.2% -61.3% -64.8% -67.6% -67.6% Interest cover EBITDA / interest paid Altman's z-score Dividend payout ratio 51% 76% 77% 61% 64% 60% 69% Liquidity Current ratio Acid test ratio Free cash flow Funds management Avg. working capital / sales 27.9% 30.3% 31.4% 30.8% 29.6% 27.8% 27.6% Cash flow / sales 5.5% 5.7% 6.5% 6.2% 6.2% 6.8% 6.7% Free cash flow/sales 3.3% -0.7% 8.8% 8.3% 6.2% 5.6% 4.6% Inventory processing period (days) Receivables collection period (days) Payables payment period (days) Cash conversion cycle (days) Trade creditors / trade debtors 44.5% 37.0% 28.9% 31.0% 31.1% 31.1% 31.1% Other Interest received / avg. cash 3.0% 1.8% 1.1% 0.8% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% Interest paid / avg. debt 321% 524% 145% 139% 371% 374% 379% Capex / dep'n 82.2% 146.5% 52.4% 146.3% 149.6% 109.0% 107.6% Cost per employee Capex / sales 2.5% 4.3% 0.6% 4.1% 4.0% 3.0% 2.8% Maint. capex / sales 1.8% 1.3% 1.6% 1.6% 1.5% 1.7% 1.8% Cash flow Cash ROCE 16.7% 19.9% 27.1% 32.9% 39.4% 48.5% 50.5% Free cash flow yield 7.7% -1.3% 13.6% 8.1% 6.2% 6.0% 5.1% Source: Company data, Berenberg estimates 7

8 Please note that the use of this research report is subject to the conditions and restrictions set forth in the General investment stment-related disclosures and the Legal disclaimer at the end of this document. For analyst certification and remarks regarding g foreign investors and country-specific disclosures, please refer to the respective paragraph at the end of this document. Disclosures in respect of section 34b of the German Securities Trading Act (Wertpapierhandelsgesetz WpHG) Company Leifheit AG Disclosures no disclosures (1) Joh. Berenberg, Gossler & Co. KG (hereinafter referred to as the Bank ) and/or its affiliate(s) was Lead Manager or Co- Lead Manager over the previous 12 months of a public offering of this company. (2) The Bank acts as Designated Sponsor for this company. (3) Over the previous 12 months, the Bank and/or its affiliate(s) has effected an agreement with this company for investment banking services or received compensation or a promise to pay from this company for investment banking services. (4) The Bank and/or its affiliate(s) holds 5% or more of the share capital of this company. (5) The Bank holds a trading position in shares of this company. Historical price target and rating changes for Leifheit AG in the last 12 months (full coverage) Date Price target - EUR Rating Initiation of coverage 13 November Buy 11 April May Buy Berenberg Equity Research ratings distribution and in proportion to investment banking services, as of 1 July 2015 Buy % % Sell % 2.70 % Hold % % Valuation basis/rating key The recommendations for companies analysed by Berenberg s Equity Research department are made on an absolute basis for which the following three-step rating key is applicable: Buy: Sustainable upside potential of more than 15% to the current share price within 12 months; Sell: Sustainable downside potential of more than 15% to the current share price within 12 months; Hold: Upside/downside potential regarding the current share price limited; no immediate catalyst visible. NB: During periods of high market, sector, or stock volatility, or in special situations, the recommendation system criteria may be breached temporarily. Competent supervisory authority Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht -BaFin- (Federal Financial Supervisory Authority), Graurheindorfer Straße 108, Bonn and Marie-Curie-Str , Frankfurt am Main, Germany. General investment- related disclosures Joh. Berenberg, Gossler & Co. KG (hereinafter referred to as the Bank ) has made every effort to carefully research all information contained in this financial analysis. The information on which the financial analysis is based has been obtained from sources which we believe to be reliable such as, for example, Thomson Reuters, Bloomberg and the relevant specialised press as well as the company which is the subject of this financial analysis. Only that part of the research note is made available to the issuer (who is the subject of this analysis) which is necessary to properly reconcile with the facts. Should this result in considerable changes a reference is made in the research note. Opinions expressed in this financial analysis are our current opinions as of the issuing date indicated on this document. The companies analysed by the Bank are divided into two groups: those under full coverage (regular updates provided); and those 8

9 under screening coverage (updates provided as and when required at irregular intervals). The functional job title of the person/s responsible for the recommendations contained in this report is Equity Research Analyst unless otherwise stated on the cover. The following internet link provides further remarks on our financial analyses: Legal disclaimer This document has been prepared by Joh. Berenberg, Gossler & Co. KG (hereinafter referred to as the Bank ). This document does not claim completeness regarding all the information on the stocks, stock markets or developments referred to in it. On no account should the document be regarded as a substitute for the recipient procuring information for himself/herself or exercising his/her own judgements. The document has been produced for information purposes for institutional clients or market professionals. Private customers, into whose possession this document comes, should discuss possible investment decisions with their customer service officer as differing views and opinions may exist with regard to the stocks referred to in this document. This document is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell the mentioned stock. The document may include certain descriptions, statements, estimates, and conclusions underlining potential market and company development. These reflect assumptions, which may turn out to be incorrect. The Bank and/or its employees accept no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss or damages of any kind arising out of the use of this document or any part of its content. The Bank and/or its employees may hold, buy or sell positions in any securities mentioned in this document, derivatives thereon or related financial products. The Bank and/or its employees may underwrite issues for any securities mentioned in this document, derivatives thereon or related financial products or seek to perform capital market or underwriting services. Analyst certification I, Anna Patrice, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers discussed herein. In addition, I hereby certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report, nor is it tied to any specific investment banking transaction performed by the Bank or its affiliates. Remarks regarding foreign investors The preparation of this document is subject to regulation by German law. The distribution of this document in other jurisdictions may be restricted by law, and persons into whose possession this document comes should inform themselves about, and observe, any such restrictions. United Kingdom This document is meant exclusively for institutional investors and market professionals, but not for private customers. It is not for distribution to or the use of private investors or private customers. United States of America This document has been prepared exclusively by the Bank. Although Berenberg Capital Markets LLC, an affiliate of the Bank and registered US broker-dealer, distributes this document to certain customers, Berenberg Capital Markets LLC does not provide input into its contents, nor does this document constitute research of Berenberg Capital Markets LLC. In addition, this document is meant exclusively for institutional investors and market professionals, but not for private customers. It is not for distribution to or the use of private investors or private customers. This document is classified as objective for the purposes of FINRA rules. Please contact Berenberg Capital Markets LLC ( ) if you require additional information. Third-party research disclosures Company Leifheit AG Disclosures no disclosures (1) Berenberg Capital Markets LLC owned 1% or more of the outstanding shares of any class of the subject company by the end of the prior month.* (2) Over the previous 12 months, Berenberg Capital Markets LLC has managed or co-managed any public offering for the subject company.* (3) Berenberg Capital Markets LLC is making a market in the subject securities at the time of the report. 9

10 (4) Berenberg Capital Markets LLC received compensation for investment banking services in the past 12 months, or expects to receive such compensation in the next 3 months.* (5) There is another potential conflict of interest of the analyst or Berenberg Capital Markets LLC, of which the analyst knows or has reason to know at the time of publication of this research report. * For disclosures regarding affiliates of Berenberg Capital Markets LLC please refer to the Disclosures in respect of section 34b of the German Securities Trading Act (Wertpapierhandelsgesetz WpHG) section above. Copyright The Bank reserves all the rights in this document. No part of the document or its content may be rewritten, copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the Bank s prior written consent. May 2013 Joh. Berenberg, Gossler & Co. KG 10

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