Problem Loan Workout and Debit Restructuring for SME s in Egypt

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1 Problem Loan Workout and Debit Restructuring for SME s in Egypt Course Hours: 24 Course Code: Objectives The principal objectives of this programme are to provide delegates with a developed understanding of the Early Warning Signals that indicate problems confronting SME corporate clients operating in Egypt, as well as methods in early problem loan workouts for SME companies in distress. The overall aim of the latter is for relationship managers and the banking team responsible for monitoring the SME client company salvage the problem loan and thus avoiding corporate recovery. EWS and problem loan analysis will be undertaken from a full 360 degree holistic approach to credit risk including both quantitative and well as strategic, managerial and qualitative analysis. The workshops will use a range of case study companies located in Egypt, to provide the core learning tools for this SME problem loan course. We will be drawing on a range of international best practise for SME problem loan workout and applying these to the context of the existing business environment in Egypt. Aim It is assumed that the professional experience of the delegates attending this course is intermediate to senior and therefore basic credit and EWS analysis will be assumed knowledge although we will be revisiting key areas of ratio analysis as part of the theoretical credit risk review. The workshop will focus heavily on the successful and practical implementation of this theory with real life scenarios through case study analysis. The aims include: Assessing different types of SME loan default Assessing when the loan needs to be restructured, the company turned around, or put into Corporate Recovery Understanding when a situation can be salvaged and when it can t. Implementing a practical 10 point plan for effective restructuring of the SME loan Understanding and identifying strategies for recovery for the SME Using cash flow forecasts to understand the feasibility of the SME s recovery strategy Implementing a company turnaround and steps required for a successfully recovery of the SME business Practical steps needed to alleviate a liquidity crisis in a defaulted company Corporate recovery and steps used internationally to accelerate claims against an SME company.

2 Day 1: Introduction to the aims of the course Session 1 Fundamental concepts in Debt restructuring Principal issues posed by non performing loans Assessing the fundamental impact on the bank of nonperforming loans Impact on the client Impact on shareholders and stakeholders Loan foreclosure versus debt restructuring the lose lose scenario Alternative to foreclosure Debt restructuring and the potential win win scenario The importance of immediate action and the risks of inaction Introduction to the 10 Point Plan for debt restructuring Organising the action committee Managing internal relations at bank level The importance of understanding the SME s business strategy and its importance in long term survival Session 2 Identifying problem loans before they turn bad the early warning signals using ratio analysis and quantitative analysis. Assess market problems and competitive forces Understanding competitive forces in the industry and client s position in the market Critical success factors and delivering success; Poor corporate governance Management inaction and examples from the Egyptian market The importance of trend analysis as part of ratio analysis Spotting off balance sheet items that will affect company risk profiles; Spotting ongoing capital expenditure needs and identifying methods of financing; Identifying potential corporate failure; Ratio analysis as a key tool in early warning: Key financial drivers and the need for constant vigilance The problems with overreliance on the financial statements. Developing underlying assumptions of quantitative analysis; Trend analysis and the importance of identifying the trend; The Z score and its use in identifying potential corporate failure Case Study: Review of an SME case study s financial statements whereby delegates will review the identify key EWS risks associated with the company going forward

3 Session 3 SME Overtrading and Working capital management The importance of good working capital management The impact of poor working capital management on company liquidity and survival Calculating the net working capital needs of the company Methods in improving working capital generation The importance of liquidity in distressed SME s Methods in improving SME liquidity and cash flow through improved working capital management Methods implemented by turnaround managers to increase liquidity in companies Case Study: during this session, the delegates will analyse the working capital needs of an SME and assess how working capital problems can threaten the going concern. They will also assess how the SME can increase its liquidity through intelligent working capital management. Session 4 - Identifying Risks and implementing strategies to mitigate credit risk Introduction to different risks in Emerging markets and the Middle East Credit risk, business risk, operating risk, management risk Risk identification in developing markets Risk profiling Risk mitigation through different strategies -- The use of the TARA model Risks associated with restructuring SME s Dealing with risk exposure and mitigating bank risk Case study: Completion of the full analysis and presentation of risk mitigation techniques for the SME case study company above. Delegates will divide into teams to assess the case study and present their findings to the rest of the group for discussion and analysis. Day 2: Session 1 Early Problem analysis of Macro and Qualitative factors for SME clients Understanding the big picture and potential pitfalls for the company Understanding a client s general business environment The application of the PESTEL model Understanding the company s SWOT Assessing the competitive forces at work in a client s company s industry with a view to understanding its ability to make profits Application of Porter s Five forces The assessment of the strength of a company s product and service portfolio and its chances of survival as a going concern

4 Product Life Cycle Portfolio Analysis International Offerings Session 2 EWS Qualitative Work Shop Workshop: Delegates in groups to undertake and present a qualitative analysis of an Egyptian family run SME company. Delegates to discuss potential areas of assistance in debt restructuring for the company. Session 3 When the company defaults Reviewing the 10 point restructuring plan and using Cash flow forecasts to understand the recovery plan Assessing what can be done to the client in default Review of the 10 point restructuring plan Believing the recovery story Revising the company s business plan Why cash flow forecasts and analysis is central to the SME s recovery The sources and applications of cash. Review of The Cash flow statement Cash flow from operating activities and importance of different cash flow items Free cash flow for debt service Analysis of the borrowing capacity of the client company The Debt Service Coverage Ratio and its role as a principal early warning signal Interest Coverage Ratio Session 4 Using cash flow forecasting and sensitivity analysis to assess the management s recovery plan Workshop: The delegates will spread the forecast cash flows of the principal case study question in order to assess the potential borrowing capacity of the restructured client going forward. The delegates, in their groups, will flex the cash flow forecasts using sensitivity analysis. The cash flow forecasts will form the basis of the restructured loan facility that the delegates will present in class. Day 3 Session 1 - Restructuring the loan Amend and Extend not Extend and Pretend Assessing when company can and cannot be saved Identifying the need to take action Assessing the costs of liquidation versus the costs of maintaining the going concern When a moratorium can be applied to save the day Implementing the Moratorium through the Standstill Agreement

5 Key concepts underlying the agreement and Automatic Stay Review of a draft Standstill Agreement Drafting the Standstill Agreement Workshop: The delegates will draft a Standstill Agreement for the SME case study developed during session 4 of day 2. The standstill agreement will be negotiated with a delegate team chosen to represent the interests of the company. The agreement of these negotiations will be presented in class Session 2 - International Best Practise in Problem Loan Workout and adaptation to the Egyptian market Assessing different restructuring methods in the EU and in the US Automatic stay and the rights of management and directors in insolvency Administration and Receivership in the UK and EU Chapter 11 administration in the United States Company Voluntary Agreements and their application in problem loan workout Pre packaged insolvency agreements Implementation of Turnaround Agents and strengthening client management Managing the turnaround process and the bank s involvement Maintaining the going concern Debt and Equity Swaps as a route to recovery Recovering the bank s exposure Assessing the return for the bank as part of the restructuring process Fees and margins amended for the work out scenario Workshop: The delegates will review case study examples of international best practise in action. They will also assess the option of debt and equity swaps and the process required to understand how the bank could recover its exposure through equity Sessions 3 & 4 Restructuring Business Case recovering the bank s exposure Workshop : During these final two sessions, the delegates will review a new real estate / retail case study based in Alexandria. They will identify the EWS associated with the problem loan and devise risk management techniques in order to assess which course of action will be needed to recover the maximum exposure possible from the problem loan client. They will then draft a Standstill Agreement and restructure the problem loan using forecast cash flows and the company s business plan to assess the value of the company and the debt service coverage going forward. The delegate project teams will then present their restricted deals to the rest of the class who will act as a credit committee. Course conclusion and evaluations

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