The costs of deploying fibre-based next-generation broadband infrastructure

Transcription

1 Final report for the Broadband Stakeholder Group The costs of deploying fibre-based next-generation broadband infrastructure Final report 8 September 2008

2 This report has been commissioned by the Broadband Stakeholder Group with support from the Department for Business Enterprise & Regulatory Reform. The Broadband Stakeholder Group and Analysys Mason would like to thank those organisations and individuals that contributed to the development of this report. Copyright The information contained herein is the property of Analysys Mason Limited and is provided on condition that it is sourced to Analysys Mason for BSG if it is reproduced for any purpose. Analysys Mason Limited St Giles Court 24 Castle Street Cambridge CB3 0AJ Tel: Fax:

3 Foreword Kip Meek Chairman, Broadband Stakeholder Group This is the third in a series of reports published this year by the Broadband Stakeholder Group on next-generation broadband access. It complements our earlier work on economic and social value and public-sector intervention models, and reflects our commitment to ensuring an informed and detailed public debate on next-generation broadband access in the UK. This research was part funded by the Department for Business Enterprise & Regulatory Reform and has been submitted as a contribution to the Caio Review on next-generation broadband. We would like to thank the Department for Business Enterprise & Regulatory Reform, Analysys Mason and all those who have given their time and input to this project. The report provides a detailed analysis of the deployment costs involved in deploying fixed-line infrastructure to provide next-generation broadband services in the UK. It is based on realistic assumptions that are detailed, clear and transparent and has been modelled on geographical data specific to the UK. The research has been informed and validated by the key commercial players, including network operators, technology vendors, deployment specialists and other industry experts. We believe it is the most comprehensive published assessment of how much fibre deployment might cost in the UK. Although it contains some discussion on operating costs, the report focuses primarily on the deployment costs involved in deploying fibre to the home (FTTH) and fibre to the cabinet (FTTC). The report does not speculate on revenue models as these will be dependent upon the commercial strategies of individual operators. It should be noted that although deployment costs are fundamental, they are not the only factors that will determine final commercial decisions around either the timing or location of investment or the choice of technology. The model has been developed to a high level of detail and should provide a valuable resource for those concerned with these issues. However, a number of high-level observations can be drawn from the report regarding: the scale of the costs involved and the factors that drive those costs; the potential migration from FTTC to FTTH; and the potential extent of market driven deployment.

4 The costs of deploying fibre-based next-generation broadband infrastructure Costs In regard to costs, the first and most obvious observation is about their scale. Deploying fibre to the cabinet (the least expensive of the technology options) on a national basis would cost three or four times more than the telecoms sector has spent in deploying the current generation of broadband services. A second observation is the scale of the cost differential between FTTC and FTTH. Although there are clear benefits for both operators and users in taking fibre to the home, the level of cost involved suggests that FTTC is likely to be the predominant technology deployed in most areas. This does not mean that FTTH should be ruled out, but it is likely that FTTH deployments will be more localised in new-build locations and other areas where it is possible to significantly reduce the civil infrastructure costs involved. The report suggests that these high civil costs could be significantly reduced by the re-use of existing telecommunications ducts; the sharing of alternative infrastructure owned by other utilities, such as water companies; and the use of overhead fibre distribution in some areas. The third factor that comes out strongly from the report is that the fixed costs of deploying new infrastructure far outweigh the variable costs. This means that the cost per home connected is highly dependent on the level of take-up. This has significant implications both for the likely extent of infrastructure competition and the importance of demand stimulation initiatives, such as pre-registration schemes. FTTC to FTTH The second key question for the report is whether an initial deployment of FTTC would inhibit a subsequent upgrade to FTTH. From a pure cost perspective it is not clear that this would be a problem. About 50% of the initial FTTC investment could be re-used in an FTTH upgrade. However a migration to FTTH could become more problematic in a situation where multiple operators have invested in active equipment at the street cabinet. This issue is therefore pertinent to the debate about the regulatory framework and should be considered by Ofcom. Coverage On the issue of coverage, the report suggests that deployment costs will be relatively constant across higher density areas. This implies that, if a broadly applicable commercial case for deployment exists, the market should be able to deliver to approximately two thirds of the UK population. However, the costs of deploying in more sparsely populated areas will be significantly higher, making the prospect of commercial deployment to the last third of UK households much more difficult. The coverage maps contained in the report highlight the need for creative thinking about how to make rural areas more attractive to investment. As our earlier research on public-sector intervention showed, there are many models for how this can be done that stop far short of largescale subsidy, but do require the private sector to work closely with public bodies and local

5 The costs of deploying fibre-based next-generation broadband infrastructure communities. In particular, demand stimulation initiatives, localised to the level of individual streets or cabinets could prove highly effective in extending the reach of these networks. It may also be appropriate for the more rural areas to consider other non-fixed-line technologies that can deliver improved broadband services. Ultimately, deployment costs are just one of the many factors that need to be considered when making investment decisions. Nevertheless, we hope that this clear and detailed analysis of these costs and how they are shaped will help to ensure a more informed public debate on the important policy and regulatory decisions that lie ahead.

6 The costs of deploying fibre-based next-generation broadband infrastructure Contents 1 Executive summary Methodology Summary of cost model results Further analysis Conclusions 17 2 Introduction 22 3 Methodology Network topology and cost assumptions Geotype approach 34 4 Cost model results Base case Other scenarios Operating costs for next-generation broadband access networks 65 5 Further analysis Comparison of results with other benchmarks Deployment costs in urban and rural areas Other issues to be considered in the next-generation broadband business case 78 6 Conclusions Costs Transition from FTTC to FTTH Implications for rural deployment Competition implications 84 Annex A: General assumptions relating to fibre deployment Annex B: Illustration of model calculations for Inner London geotype Annex C: Selected detailed maps of deployment areas. Annex D: Detailed results tables for the base case

7 The costs of deploying fibre-based next-generation broadband infrastructure 1 1 Executive summary This report presents the results of Analysys Mason s quantification of the deployment costs for three different types of fibre-based infrastructure and technology that can be used to deliver the next generation of broadband services in the UK. The report was commissioned by the Broadband Stakeholder Group (BSG), with the support of the Department for Business Enterprise & Regulatory Reform (BERR). This report analyses the results of a cost model that is based on a transparent approach that has been agreed by the members of the BSG Executive. For each technology option, we have explored a base case scenario, and also a number of possible variations from that scenario, including different assumptions for the rate of take-up of services and access to existing infrastructure. In the base case, only existing BT infrastructure is assumed to be available for re-use. We have also quantified the potential cost savings that could be realised if the duct networks owned by Virgin Media and utilities (e.g. sewers) were available for re-use for next-generation broadband infrastructure. While it is possible to estimate the deployment costs with relative confidence, the lack of data on the operating costs of next-generation networks means that the operating costs are more difficult to quantify. For this reason we have only provided an indicative illustration of the potential operational cost savings. The revenue potential of next-generation broadband services has not been quantified as it is subject to much greater uncertainty, and is outside the scope of this work. The objective of this report is to provide a key quantitative input into the independent review of next-generation broadband infrastructure and services being conducted by Francesco Caio at the request of BERR. The report is therefore intended to be used to inform the debate surrounding various next-generation broadband issues. The cost model considers three different technological options for the provision of next-generation broadband services: FTTC/VDSL FTTH/GPON Fibre to the cabinet (FTTC) using very high bit-rate digital subscriber line (VDSL) involves laying fibre-optic cables to street cabinets. Such cabinets are typically within a few hundred metres of the customer premises. Active equipment is then deployed in the street cabinet that connects to the customer premises using existing copper cables. Depending upon the length of the final copper line, download speeds of Mbit/s can be expected. Fibre to the home (FTTH) using a Gigabit passive optical network (GPON) involves laying fibre-optic cables directly to the customer premises. Each fibre is theoretically capable of providing up to 2.5Gbit/s of download bandwidth to the customer premises. However, this bandwidth is typically shared between more than one customer.

8 The costs of deploying fibre-based next-generation broadband infrastructure 2 FTTH/PTP Fibre to the home can also be deployed using point-to-point (PTP) fibre connections. By using this technology each customer premises has a dedicated fibre that using current technology is capable of supporting symmetric connections of up to 1Gbit/s. The first two of these technologies (FTTC/VDSL and FTTH/GPON) form the basis of the recently announced next-generation broadband deployment from BT 1, which is likely to be heavily weighted towards FTTC/VDSL deployments. FTTH has been considered in two distinct variations with different characteristics: FTTH/PTP offers greater service flexibility than FTTH/GPON and is more suitable for infrastructure-based competition, but deployment costs are higher. Our detailed cost model for the deployment costs of each technology contains a geographical dimension, so that differences in costs between areas of the UK can be reflected in the results. We have also undertaken a high-level analysis of the potential differences in operating cost between today s networks and the three next-generation broadband technologies. Although detailed results are presented, it should be noted that the results are based upon a model with a large number of assumptions. These are all detailed in this document. The costs presented here should therefore be considered to be indicative estimates, and the actual costs of a real deployment are likely to differ from those presented in this report. 1.1 Methodology Network topology For each of the three technologies, we have established a base case, and a number of variations to that base case. In the base case, only lines requiring next-generation broadband services are assumed to be migrated to the new network (partial migration), and the only infrastructure that is assumed to be re-usable is that which is owned by BT. In addition we have explored a scenario in which all lines are assumed to be migrated to the new network (full migration). We have also explored scenarios in which infrastructure from Virgin Media and utilities is available for re-use. More information on these scenarios is given in Section The main cost components in the deployment of FTTC/VDSL are the construction of new cabinets to house active equipment within a few hundred metres of the customer premises, and the installation of fibre-based connections to the street cabinets. The fibre connections to the street cabinets are largely installed in existing ducts owned by BT. In the base case, it is assumed that in 1 For more information on the BT announcement see

9 The costs of deploying fibre-based next-generation broadband infrastructure 3 each location only one new street cabinet is constructed, but that it has enough room for at least two operators to use it for active equipment. We have also considered scenarios in which there is only a single cabinet for one operator, and two cabinets (each for a single operator). The two FTTH technologies involve the installation of fibre-optic cables from the existing telephone exchanges to the customer premises. Again, a significant proportion of the length of this fibre is assumed to be installed in existing ducts, though this proportion is substantially lower in areas that are closer to customer premises. In the case of FTTH/GPON each fibre connection from the exchange is shared by an average of 32 customers via passive splitters. However, FTTH/PTP has a dedicated fibre from the exchange to each customer premises. FTTH/PTP therefore requires more fibres to be installed, and so has been assumed to require more new ducts than FTTH/GPON due to space constraints. Another difference between the two FTTH technologies lies in the exchange-based active equipment: FTTH/GPON uses a fibre shared between 32 users, whereas FTTH/PTP has a dedicated fibre to each premises from the telephone exchange. Full details of the network topologies, dimensioning rules and unit costs for all three technologies are outlined in Section Geotype approach For the purpose of modelling the deployment costs of next-generation broadband, we have categorised UK households into 13 geotypes. Each geotype has been chosen to represent areas with particular characteristics and deployment costs per customer premises for next-generation broadband infrastructure. A number of different parameters can be used to define geotypes. In this work we have used a combination of the population of a city or town, the number of lines served by a telephone exchange, and the distance between the customer premises and the telephone exchange. The proximity to the serving telephone exchange is particularly important in rural areas, in order to reflect the fact that significant numbers of rural premises are in relatively dense clusters close to telephone exchanges. The parameters used to define the 13 geotypes are summarised below in Figure 1.1.

10 The costs of deploying fibre-based next-generation broadband infrastructure 4 Geotype Classification criteria Total no. of Avg straight-line % of Premises (distances are straight line) premises distance from total density (domestic exchange to area (per sq. + business) premises (m) km) Inner London Inner London % 3641 >500k pop Major city (pop = 500k+) % 1282 >200k pop City (pop = 200k+) % 1016 >20k lines (a) >20k lines, <2km from exchange % 1360 >20k lines (b) > lines, >2km from exchange % 453 >10k lines (a) > lines, <2km from exchange % 854 >10k lines (b) > lines, >2km from exchange % 190 >3k lines (a) >3000 lines, <1km from exchange % 876 >3k lines (b) >3000 lines, >1km from exchange % 93 >1k lines (a) >1000 lines, <1km from exchange % 285 >1k lines (b) >1000 lines >1km from exchange % 23 <1k lines (a) <1000 lines, <1km from exchange % 61 <1k lines (b) <1000 lines >1km from exchange % % Figure 1.1: Geotype summary [Source: Analysys Mason for BSG] The geotypes labelled as a refer to areas that are relatively densely populated areas close to telephone exchanges (i.e. the centres of towns and villages). The b geotypes are the less densely populated areas that surround exchanges. These a and b geotypes are used to capture the effects of clustering close to exchanges, particularly in rural areas. 1.2 Summary of cost model results Base case assumptions A summary of results for the base case is presented in this section. The base case was built upon the following common assumptions: migration of only broadband customers to the next-generation broadband access network FTTC/VDSL being provisioned from a single cabinet shared between operators an overall take-up rate of 31% of all lines nationally, based upon the following assumptions: broadband penetration is 80% the national market share of cable broadband is the same as today, at around 21% (i.e. the deployment of DOCSIS3.0 is assumed to allow cable to maintain its current share of the broadband market). We have estimated the cable market share based upon the coverage of Virgin Media s cable network in each geotype. There is at least some coverage from cable in approximately 60% of postcode areas (although the actual number of premises passed is

11 The costs of deploying fibre-based next-generation broadband infrastructure 5 closer to 45%, as not all premises within a covered postcode area will be able to access cable services). Within the 60% coverage areas, this corresponds to a market share of around 35%. of the remaining broadband lines, 50% are provided over the FTTC/FTTH network, with the remaining broadband lines on the existing copper-based network Deployment costs in the base case The costs per premises connected for FTTC/VDSL are shown in the figure below. The costs are broken down into six categories (for more information on the components of each cost category, see Section 3.1). The most significant cost categories are cabinets, active equipment, civil works 2 and line migration. As would be expected, it is less expensive to connect premises in dense urban areas than in more sparsely populated rural areas. This effect is also seen across a and b geotypes: a geotypes are consistently cheaper to connect than the corresponding b geotype due to the shorter line lengths. Deployment costs per premises connected (GBP)... 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, London >500k pop >200k pop >20k lines (a) >20k lines (b) >10k lines (a) >10k lines (b) >3k lines (a) >3k lines (b) >1k lines (a) >1k lines (b) <1k lines (a) <1k lines (b) National Optical distribution frame Cabinet Active equipment Civils Line migration In-home Figure 1.2: Breakdown of FTTC/VDSL costs per premises connected [Source: Analysys Mason for BSG] The costs per premises connected for FTTH/GPON are shown in the figure below. In the case of FTTH/GPON the main costs are from civil works, with other costs being less significant. Once again there are significant differences in the costs between geotype. A similar pattern of results is also seen for FTTH/PTP in Figure 1.4 below. 2 Costs of civil works include the costs of new ducts, fibre-optic cables and installation.

12 The costs of deploying fibre-based next-generation broadband infrastructure 6 Deployment costs per premises connected (GBP)... 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 - London >500k pop >200k pop >20k lines (a) >20k lines (b) >10k lines (a) >10k lines (b) >3k lines (a) >3k lines (b) >1k lines (a) >1k lines (b) <1k lines (a) <1k lines (b) National Optical distribution frame Active equipment + splitters Civils (exc. final drop) Civils (final drop) In-building wiring (exc. final drop) CPE Figure 1.3: Breakdown of FTTH/GPON costs per premises connected [Source: Analysys Mason for BSG] The costs for FTTH/PTP are higher than for FTTH/GPON. This is driven by increased costs of civil works due to the fact that the proportion of ducts that can be re-used has decreased, leading to a requirement for more new ducts to accommodate the increased size of the fibre-optic cables. Deployment costs per premises connected (GBP)... 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 - London >500k pop >200k pop >20k lines (a) >20k lines (b) >10k lines (a) >10k lines (b) >3k lines (a) >3k lines (b) >1k lines (a) >1k lines (b) <1k lines (a) <1k lines (b) National Optical distribution frame Active equipment + splitters Civils (exc. final drop) Civils (final drop) In-building wiring (exc. final drop) CPE Figure 1.4: Breakdown of FTTH/PTP costs per premises connected [Source: Analysys Mason for BSG]

13 The costs of deploying fibre-based next-generation broadband infrastructure 7 The total costs for deploying each technology, plotted against cumulative population coverage, are shown in Figure 1.5 and Figure 1.6 below (with the geotypes ordered from least to most expensive per premises connected). For all three technologies it is seen that there is a significant proportion of geotypes for which the curve remains relatively linear (i.e. the costs per premises connected remain constant), followed by an increasing gradient, and eventually a significantly steeper section for the last few percent of population. These three sections of the graph equate roughly to geographical areas that are respectively urban, rural and remote. This has been captured in our modelling by designating the 13 geotypes as urban A, rural B and remote C. These three categories are slightly different for FTTC and FTTH technologies, and so are designated as follows: A FTTC /A FTTH, B FTTC /B FTTH and C FTTC /C FTTH. 6.0 Deployment costs (GBP billions) A FTTC B FTTC C FTTC - 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Cumulative population FTTC/VDSL Figure 1.5: Total cost vs. percentage population for FTTC/VDSL [Source: Analysys Mason for BSG]

14 The costs of deploying fibre-based next-generation broadband infrastructure 8 35 Deployment costs (GBP billions) A FTTH B FTTH C FTTH - 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Cumulative population FTTH/GPON FTTH/PTP Figure 1.6: Total cost vs. percentage population for FTTH [Source: Analysys Mason for BSG] The costs of deploying FTTC/VDSL on a national basis are around GBP5.1 billion. This is around a fifth of the costs of deploying FTTH/GPON (GBP24.5 billion), with FTTH/PTP costing around GBP28.8 billion (18% more than FTTH/GPON). Figure 1.7 shows the deployment costs for a national network under the base case (50% take-up amongst broadband subscribers not on cable networks) split into fixed and variable costs. The fixed costs are for items such as new street cabinets which do not vary with take-up. The variable costs are those that increase with the addition of each new line, and so include costs for active equipment and the final fibre connection to the premises which are only installed when a premises migrates to the new network. It can be seen that for all technologies the fixed costs associated with coverage are dominant, at over 70% of the total costs. As will be seen later in Section 1.2.3, the large proportion of fixed costs means that the costs per premises connected are particularly sensitive to the take-up assumptions.

15 The costs of deploying fibre-based next-generation broadband infrastructure 9 35 Deployment costs (GBP billions) FTTC/VDSL FTTH/GPON FTTH/PTP Fixed Variable Figure 1.7: Costs for a national network split into fixed and variable costs [Source: Analysys Mason for BSG] Deployment costs in other scenarios Cabinet occupancy The base case assumes that FTTC/VDSL is deployed using a single cabinet that is shared between multiple operators. This scenario allows for some level of infrastructure-based competition, although space limitations within a cabinet are likely to restrict the number of competitors that could co-locate their equipment there. However, the sharing of cabinets has yet to be proven operationally, and it may be necessary to construct a second new cabinet in each location in order to facilitate infrastructure-based competition. If infrastructure-based competition is not a prerequisite, FTTC/VDSL could be deployed using a single cabinet for a single operator on a national basis. This would reduce the costs of a national deployment from GBP5.1 billion for a network based on single shared cabinets to GBP4.6 billion. As such it can be concluded that the incremental cost of supporting some level of infrastructurebased competition is around GBP500 million. If infrastructure-based competition is a prerequisite, and it is not possible for operators to share cabinets, it would be necessary to build additional cabinets. This would increase the deployment costs for a nationwide network by around GBP500 million to GBP5.6 billion.

16 The costs of deploying fibre-based next-generation broadband infrastructure 10 Nonetheless, in practice it is unlikely that infrastructure-based competition will be viable in all areas, and is most likely to develop in areas of high demand for services and low cost of deployment. As such, it is likely that infrastructure-based competition may only be viable in the A FTTC areas. If so, the difference in the costs for the scenario with a single cabinet (which is least conducive to infrastructure-based competition), and the scenario with two cabinets (which is most conducive to infrastructure-based competition) would be around GBP310 million in the A FTTC areas. The competition implications of FTTC/VDSL are discussed in greater detail in Section Take-up of next-generation broadband services Given that fixed costs account for a very large proportion of the total costs, an increase in take-up of next-generation broadband services leads to a significant reduction in the costs per premises connected. Figure 1.8 shows how an increase in the national take-up rate from 31% of all lines to 63% of all lines (which would equate to 100% take-up amongst broadband subscribers not on cable networks) would lead to a 41% decrease in the costs per premises connected for FTTH/GPON from around GBP2900 to around GBP1700 (in spite of an increase in total costs from GBP24.5 billion to GBP29.4 billion due to the higher variable costs). Deployment costs per premises... connected (GBP)... 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000-0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Take-up of all lines A FTTH B FTTH C FTTH National Figure 1.8: Impact of overall take-up on the costs per premises connected in the base case by area for FTTH/GPON [Source: Analysys Mason for BSG] A scenario has also been considered in which all of the existing lines are migrated to the new network (full migration), and the existing copper-based network is no longer actively used. This full migration of lines leads to a significant increase in deployment costs (increases of around GBP2 billion increase for FTTC/VDSL and GBP5 billion for FTTH/GPON). The increases in cost

17 The costs of deploying fibre-based next-generation broadband infrastructure 11 are due to an increase in the variable costs outlined above, and additional costs for network resiliency (e.g. battery back-up facilities). There may also be significant increases in operating costs to maintain these additional resiliency features. These are quantified in Section 4.3. Use of alternative infrastructure The base case assumes a certain level of re-use of existing infrastructure that is owned by BT. Other scenarios have been considered where the infrastructure from Virgin Media and utility firms can also be used. The potential savings that have been estimated using the different infrastructures are shown below in Figure 1.9. The percentage cost saving is greatest in urban areas (A FTTC /A FTTH ) and lowest in the rural areas because the cable footprint is more concentrated in the A FTTC /A FTTH areas. Similarly we have assumed that the utility infrastructure becomes less usable in more rural areas. Figure 1.9 shows that the potential cost savings from using alternative infrastructure are most significant for FTTH. The deployment costs for FTTH/GPON could be reduced by over 20%, a cost reduction of over GBP5 billion for nationwide deployment. Cost savings (GBP Virgin Media (urban Virgin Media (nationwide) Utilities (urban Utilities (nationwide) millions) areas) areas) FTTC/VDSL 270 (14%) 549 (11%) 295 (16%) 811 (16%) FTTH/GPON 719 (7%) 1307 (5%) 2427 (25%) 5654 (23%) FTTH/PTP 950 (8%) 1733 (6%) 3014 (26%) 7028 (24%) Figure 1.9: Reduction in costs due to use of alternative infrastructure [Source: Analysys Mason for BSG] Urban areas refer to the A FTTC /A FTTH areas; percentage saving in parentheses Another approach to cost reduction is to increase the use of aerial fibre in locations where existing ducts are not available. This technique could be used in areas where it is possible to install new telegraph poles though we believe such areas may be limited. The sensitivity of the model to greater use of aerial fibre (primarily in rural areas) has been quantified. This sensitivity is detailed in Section 4.2.5, which shows that the reduction in deployment costs for FTTH could be around GBP5 billion. However, this is not additive with the potential savings from using other duct networks, and may be difficult to achieve due to issues associated with installing new telegraph poles. Duct re-use The base case for our modelling assumes that a reasonable proportion of existing BT ducts can be re-used for fibre deployment; this varies from a high level of re-use near to the exchange (80%) to a lower level of re-use nearer to the premises (30% for the final connection to the premises). The assumptions in this area have a large impact upon the overall costs for deploying the different technologies. Under different assumptions for duct re-use the deployment costs for FTTC/VDSL can change by over GBP1 billion, and by over GBP7 billion for FTTH. The assumption behind these sensitivities can be found in Section Ofcom s ongoing duct survey is seeking to

18 The costs of deploying fibre-based next-generation broadband infrastructure 12 establish a better understanding of these issues. The findings of this work will be important in helping to inform the likely extent of ducting that can be re-used with minimal investment. Engineer installation In the case of FTTC/VDSL, we have explored the sensitivity of the model to a requirement for customer premises equipment to be installed by an engineer rather than by the customer. Installation by an engineer may be necessary to ensure that FTTC/VDSL is able to deliver high speeds reliably. Similar engineer installations were necessary in the early phases of ADSL roll-out, though over time self-installation became the most common method. However, FTTC/VDSL may require a professional installation beyond the initial stage of a deployment. Such installations are assumed to cost an additional GBP100 per line. This would increase the total costs of deployment by over GBP850 million, representing a 17% increase in overall costs Operating costs Our analysis of the operating costs in Section 4.3 suggests that in the long term the costs of operating an FTTH network could be in the region of 30% lower than the costs of operating the current copper network. By contrast, the operating costs for an FTTC network could be slightly higher than today s infrastructure. However, in the short term (or under a low take-up scenario) the total operating costs may increase due to the inefficiencies of operating parallel fibre- and copperbased networks. The magnitude of the savings in operating costs is relatively small when compared to the overall investment required. In the case of FTTC/VDSL, therefore, the available savings are unlikely to be sufficient to make a business case unattractive; for FTTH/GPON and FTTH/PTP the savings are likely to be substantially less than would be required to fund the investment based solely on savings in operating cost. For example, under the base case, the cost savings from FTTH are estimated to be around GBP20 per line per annum. This is a material saving, but needs to be weighed against the deployment cost of around GBP1800 per line (in the least expensive urban areas). 1.3 Further analysis Comparison of results with other benchmarks The deployment costs modelled in this project have been compared against publicly available costs from BT and AT&T for FTTC/VDSL. When the costs are compared on a like-for-like basis (i.e. the same take-up, similar geography and measure of costs) the costs in this model are similar to the benchmarks, but generally slightly lower than those quoted by other organisations. This difference

19 The costs of deploying fibre-based next-generation broadband infrastructure 13 is likely to be due to other costs being included in the costs from other organisations (e.g. servers for video services, and additional deployments of FTTH in the case of the costs quoted by BT). The deployment costs for FTTH have been compared to cost benchmarks from Verizon in the USA, OnsNet in the Netherlands, and ARCEP (the French regulator). In all three cases, when the results of this model are compared on a like-for-like basis the costs are similar to, or less than, the international benchmarks. Experience from Verizon in the USA has shown that deployment costs tend to fall over time. As the benchmarks are historical we believe that this is likely to be the main reason for the differences in costs. The deployment of DOCSIS3.0 by Virgin Media will support download speeds of at least 50Mbit/s, using a network that is similar to a FTTC/VDSL network (i.e. it uses fibre to a street cabinet within a few hundred metres of the customer premises). However, the Virgin Media network does not require significant new infrastructure investments as most of the investment for DOCSIS3.0 is in active electronics. We estimate that under similar take-up assumptions to the base case, the costs per premises connected for DOCSIS3.0 are around GBP50 100, similar to the investment in active electronics for FTTC/VDSL, which is GBP100 per premises connected Deployment costs in urban and rural areas The model has been designed to calculate deployment costs for 13 different geotypes, within which we have identified three broad groupings of geotypes with similar characteristics and costs. The 13 geotypes have therefore been aggregated into three main types of area (corresponding broadly to urban, rural and remote areas), for FTTC and FTTH technologies respectively. In the case of FTTC/VDSL the deployment costs per premises are lowest in the urban A FTTC areas, which account for 58% of the UK population; the costs are approximately 50% higher in the rural B FTTC areas than in A FTTC areas, and approximately three times higher in the remote C FTTC areas than in A FTTC areas. Based upon BT s declared strategy of deploying FTTC/VDSL to around 40% of the UK population, and the variation in costs by geographical area, it is likely that the commercial deployment of FTTC/VDSL will extend to all of the urban A FTTC areas in due course. A similar approach was also used to classify the costs of FTTH/GPON and FTTH/PTP into the three equivalent areas A FTTH, B FTTH and C FTTH. The differences in costs by area type are even more pronounced for FTTH, with the costs per premises in the approximate ratio of 1:2:4 for the three categories. The base case for the model assumes the uniform take-up of next-generation broadband services across all of the categories (once the impact of cable coverage is considered). However, the rural B FTTC /B FTTH and remote C FTTC /C FTTH areas tend to have significantly longer copper lines. This means that the performance of the current copper-based broadband technologies (i.e. ADSL and 3 The cost estimate is based upon information supplied by New Street Research

20 The costs of deploying fibre-based next-generation broadband infrastructure 14 ADSL2+) is significantly worse in the B FTTC /B FTTH and C FTTC /C FTTH areas than in the A FTTC /A FTTH areas. Because of this there may be a higher take-up of next-generation broadband in the B FTTC /B FTTH and C FTTC /C FTTH areas. As discussed earlier in Section 1.2.2, the dominance of fixed costs means that the cost of connecting a premises depends significantly on the level of take-up: higher take-up means lower connection costs. The potential impact of this has been quantified, with the results shown in Figure From this chart it can be seen that if the take-up levels in the B FTTC /B FTTH and C FTTC /C FTTH areas were to be 100% of broadband subscribers not on cable networks (instead of the 50% in the base case) the costs per premises connected in the B FTTC /B FTTH areas fall to similar levels as the costs in the A FTTC /A FTTH areas. Similarly, the costs in the C FTTC /C FTTH areas fall to the levels in the B FTTC /B FTTH areas under the base case. These results highlight the impact of high take-up on the commercial business case for next-generation broadband, and the potential role for demand stimulation and aggregation initiatives. Deployment costs per premises connected (GBP)... 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, , % take-up of 8,026 FTTH/GPON in the C FTTH areas would reduce the cost per premises by GBP3300 5,352 4,755 4,652 3,904 2,694 2,311 2,089 1,774 1, FTTC/VDSL FTTH/GPON FTTH/PTP A - base case B - base case B - 100% take-up C - base case C - 100% take-up Figure 1.10: Impact of increased take-up on costs in different areas [Source: Analysys Mason for BSG] It can be seen from the two maps below in Figure 1.11 and Figure 1.12 that although the A FTTC and A FTTH areas cover 58% and 68% of the population respectively, they cover a significantly lower proportion of the land area. It is also important to note that there are many of the A FTTC /A FTTH and B FTTC /B FTTH areas in the UK are in small pockets. These small pockets are within the areas defined as being close to the centre of exchange coverage areas. These represent small but densely populated towns and villages that are served by smaller telephone exchange in areas away from urban centres.

21 The costs of deploying fibre-based next-generation broadband infrastructure 15 Figure 1.11: Map of the UK by area type for FTTC/VDSL [Source: Analysys Mason for BSG] A FTTC B FTTC C FTTC Annex C contains two copies of the above map focused on the South West and North East of England.

22 The costs of deploying fibre-based next-generation broadband infrastructure 16 Figure 1.12: Map of the UK by area type for FTTH/GPON and FTTH/PTP [Source: Analysys Mason for BSG] A FTTH B FTTH C FTTH Despite there being differences in the A FTTC /A FTTH areas, they both include Inner London, and cities with a population in excess of (see Figure 3.11 and Figure 3.12 for a full list). The A FTTC /A FTTH areas also include the central portions of smaller cities (such as Aberdeen, Norwich and Reading) to smaller towns (such as Banbury, Doncaster, Thetford, Neath and Buxton) and even extend to the more densely populated areas of smaller towns and villages (such as Southwold, Llangollen, Pitlochry and Sidbury). The B FTTC /B FTTH areas and the C FTTC /C FTTH areas are generally the sparsely populated areas surrounding the centres of towns and villages, though the C FTTC and B FTTH areas also include the central areas of the smallest exchanges with fewer than 1000 lines.

23 The costs of deploying fibre-based next-generation broadband infrastructure Other issues to be considered in the next-generation broadband business case This report has focused on the deployment costs of the three main next-generation broadband technologies. These deployment costs are a critical element of the debate surrounding nextgeneration broadband, but operating costs and the revenue potential of next-generation broadband services must be considered in the full business case. The revenue potential of next-generation broadband services has not been quantified as it is subject to much more uncertainty. Assumptions must be made about the evolution of pricing for current services relative to next-generation broadband access. Additionally, the revenue potential of services such as IPTV has yet to be proven, and must also be offset against other costs such as content acquisition, which can be significant (e.g. for premium sports events). As the market matures and initial roll-outs of nextgeneration broadband are completed, the revenues associated with new services will become clearer. 1.4 Conclusions Costs This work has shown that the deployment costs for FTTH are around five times those for FTTC, and that the deployment costs for FTTH/PTP are over 15% higher than for FTTH/GPON. Access to alternative infrastructures from Virgin Media and utility networks has the potential to reduce deployment costs by up to GBP800 million (a 16% saving) for FTTC/VDSL and GBP5.6 billion (a 23% saving) for FTTH/GPON under the base case. For each of the three technologies, the deployment costs remain relatively constant across all urban areas. For FTTC, the urban A FTTC areas cover 58% of the population, and in the case of FTTH/GPON and FTTH/PTP the urban A FTTH areas cover 68% of the population. The relatively constant costs for a large proportion of the population suggest that if the business case is attractive for one of the technologies it may well be attractive for all of the urban A FTTC /A FTTH areas. The fixed costs of deploying each of the three technologies far outweigh the variable costs, making take-up a major factor in the required investment per premises connected. This has implications in rural areas, which generally have longer copper lines, and consequent bandwidth constraints on existing broadband infrastructure. In these areas, next-generation broadband represents a greater increase in performance over copper-based broadband, and so take-up may be higher. If a very high level of take-up can be achieved, it is possible that the costs in such areas could fall to around the same level as the large urban areas. This highlights the role that demand stimulation and aggregation schemes could play in the development of next-generation broadband infrastructure. However, it should be noted that such initiatives may need to be more localised than previous demand stimulation and aggregation initiatives for ADSL, which were organised according to telephone exchange. This is due to the significant variations in costs between the inner areas of exchanges, and the less densely populated areas surrounding them.

24 The costs of deploying fibre-based next-generation broadband infrastructure 18 A number of sensitivities have been considered in the modelling work, some of which have a very large impact on the costs. However, we believe that the base case represents a reasonable view of the costs of deploying the three different technologies; the sensitivity tests provide guidance on the magnitude of potential cost savings that could be achieved. A summary of the results for the base case (subject to the assumptions presented in Section 1.2.1) is shown below in Figure Figure 1.13: Deployment costs of each technology Deployment costs (GBP billions) FTTC/VDSL FTTH/GPON FTTH/PTP split by area (the corresponding population coverage for FTTC/FTTH is shown in parentheses) [Source: Analysys Mason for BSG] A (58%/68%) B ( 26%/25%) C (16%/7%) Transition from FTTC to FTTH Many incumbent operators, including BT, are choosing to deploy FTTC ahead of FTTH. This report has shown that FTTC can be deployed at a considerably lower cost than FTTH, with deployment costs around a fifth of those for FTTH. Given the capacity of FTTC to support the vast majority of current applications, there are strong incentives for operators to deploy FTTC rather than FTTH. Furthermore, a strategy of deploying FTTC does not preclude a later deployment of FTTH. The deployment of FTTC infrastructure may help to drive innovation that leads to the development of applications requiring greater bandwidth, which in turns drives demand for FTTH infrastructure. This process may be accelerated by small-scale deployments of FTTH in areas of new build, or in areas targeted by new entrants deploying FTTH. There are also some cost synergies between FTTC and FTTH. An important component of the deployment costs for FTTC/VDSL relates to the installation of fibre to the street cabinet. This investment amounts to around GBP2.1 billion for a nationwide network (making up 42% of the total roll-out costs for FTTC), and is a common requirement for both FTTC and FTTH. It should be noted, however, that this GBP2.1 billion amounts to just 9% of the GBP24.5 billion required for a nationwide FTTH deployment, under our base case.

25 The costs of deploying fibre-based next-generation broadband infrastructure 19 A significant proportion of the remaining costs for deploying FTTC/VDSL relates to active electronics, which will be subject to a depreciation period that is much shorter than for fibre and new ducts. It is conceivable that by the time these active electronics have been fully depreciated, there may be a more compelling business case for FTTH. However, there is also a risk that if alternative operators invest in sub-loop unbundling (SLU), some of their SLU assets at the street cabinet could become redundant before their investments are fully recovered. There may be opportunities to learn lessons from the operational experience of rolling out FTTC that could lead to a more efficient deployment of FTTH in the future. However, as there are significant differences between the technologies, these opportunities may be limited. There are also some potentially negative impacts of an initial deployment of FTTC. For example, FTTC involves placing active equipment deeper into the network. This will require new operational skills and practices for operators, notably in field maintenance. A move to an FTTH network at a later date may then lead to resistance to change as operators active equipment will be more centralised, and will require a different set of operational skills. An initial deployment of FTTC may allow operators to capture most of the additional revenue that is available from next-generation broadband services, leaving little additional revenue for services that are only supported by FTTH. If this were to occur it may make the business case for a subsequent deployment of FTTH more difficult to justify. This could possibly be offset by the effects of innovation outlined earlier in this section. Finally, operators who do not currently use the existing BT infrastructure may have a different perspective on the business case for FTTH. For example, H 2 O Networks does not have existing ties with the BT network and is pursuing an FTTH strategy. For operators who do not currently use the copper access networks the difference in economics between FTTC and FTTH may not be as pronounced, making FTTH more attractive Implications for rural deployment For both FTTC and FTTH the significant increase in the costs per premises connected beyond the A FTTC and A FTTH areas suggests that under the base case the commercial business case for nextgeneration broadband services beyond these areas is likely to be more challenging 4. Nonetheless, and as discussed above, a significantly higher level of take-up in these areas could reduce the costs, potentially to levels similar to those in A FTTC and A FTTH areas. On balance it appears probable that if the more rural areas are to receive next-generation broadband access there will need to be a mixture of demand- and supply-side interventions from the public sector, similar to what happened with the first generation of broadband services. 4 For example, if the additional costs of deploying FTTH/GPON to B FTTH areas were recovered purely through higher retail prices over 20 years (using a discount rate of 15%), it would amount to an increase in retail prices of over GBP28 per month when compared to the A FTTH areas.

26 The costs of deploying fibre-based next-generation broadband infrastructure 20 BT and Virgin Media have announced their intention to deploy next-generation broadband infrastructure. While Virgin Media s roll-out is dictated by the coverage of its existing network (which is concentrated mainly in urban areas), the geographical location of BT s deployment is not yet known. However, information currently available from BT suggests that, in the absence of any form of public-sector intervention, its deployment will be focused on more urban areas. Given the likely urban focus of any purely commercial deployments, it would be appropriate to develop creative policy approaches for the rural B FTTC /B FTTH and remote C FTTC /C FTTH areas that include commercial operators, the public sector and local communities. If these approaches are to include public-sector interventions they should seek to draw upon the recommendations in the report for the BSG on Models for efficient and effective public-sector interventions in nextgeneration broadband access networks 5. It may also be appropriate for the more rural areas to consider other wireless and satellite technologies that can deliver next-generation broadband services Competition implications The plans announced by both BT and Virgin Media to provide competing next-generation broadband infrastructure are likely to include a significant coverage overlap. However, the potential for other alternative operators to compete at the infrastructure level is less clear. In the case of FTTC/VDSL, operators with limited market share will struggle to gain economies of scale, and so will face significant challenges if they choose to adopt a strategy based on SLU. This has been considered in detail in our two previous reports for the telecoms regulators in the Netherlands 6 and Ireland 7. Both of these studies concluded that the business case for alternative operators deploying SLU is challenging, and any possible deployments are very likely to be less widespread than LLU. There may be potential for SLU to be successful in some areas, especially if cabinets can be shared between multiple operators. A shared cabinet is assumed to be deployed in the base case for FTTC/VDSL in this report. We have also considered a scenario in which only a single cabinet is dedicated to a single operator, and a scenario in which separate cabinets are constructed for two different operators. Within the A FTTC areas (which are most likely to see deployments of FTTC/VDSL) the costs of deploying a single dedicated cabinet fall by GBP150 million compared to the base case, and the scenario requiring two cabinets is GBP150 million more expensive than the base case. However, even if SLU is deployed in some areas it is likely that many alternative operators will be reliant upon wholesale bitstream products. For such products to be successful they will need to slu report_prepared_by_analysys_consulting_limited_for_comreg p.html