Ericsson Energy and Carbon Report. On the impact of the networked society

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1 Ericsson Energy and Carbon Report On the impact of the networked society June 213

2 Contents Life-cycle assessments and carbon footprint 2 Introduction 3 ICT carbon footprint 4 Networked society 5 Connected devices scenario 6 Development of networks, data centers and equipment over time 7 Energy consumption for operation 8 Smart network planning 9 ICT addressing the climate challenge 1 Reference information 11 Methodology 11 references 11 Life-cycle assessments and carbon footprint Ericsson has a long history of research and has extensive experience in energy consumption and life-cycle assessments (LCA), having conducted the first LCA on a switch in 1992, and the next two on a mobile base station in 1995 and on a mobile phone that same year. Such assessments have proven to give valid results, even when reexamined in hindsight. Carbon footprint is used to explain one aspect of the environmental impact of a product or service over its entire lifetime based on a standardized LCA method. To assess the full impact, the measure CO 2 e (carbon dioxide equivalent) is used. About 3 percent of all CO 2 e can be accounted for by other gases such as methane and the effect of land use and so on. When calculating CO 2 e, other emissions and effects are normalized to the global warming potential of CO 2 over 1 years. It is always difficult to make accurate energy and CO 2 projections as they are sensitive to selected system boundaries, and there will always be differences of opinion when it comes to future developments. While carbon footprint or CO 2 e is used to estimate the impact of a product or service over its lifetime, this should not be confused with direct energy consumption: the measurement of energy needed to operate the same product or service. The energy consumption for operation of a product may in economic terms be compared to (and have a direct impact on operational costs) OPEX, while a similar economic comparison for an LCA would look at the life-cycle costs, including all investment, running, service, maintenance and disposal costs.

3 Introduction Figure 1: enabling a low-carbon economy Waste 3% Transport & travel 13% Forestry 17% Agriculture The ICT sector ICT contributes 14% Industry 2% 19% about 2% of global CO 2 e emissions, but can help Buildings 8% Energy supply eliminate a significant 26% portion of the remaining 98% from other industries. ICT 2% All ICT equipment and services are dependent on electricity to function. The use of ICT and related services is expanding rapidly; in the Ericsson Mobility Report [1] it is predicted that mobile data will grow 12-fold between 212 and 218. This ICT expansion helps economic growth and development, and makes the world a more accessible, open and democratic place. Does it, however, also mean an equally dramatic increase in energy use and carbon emissions? Source: Ericsson and TeliaSonera, 212 The SMARTer 22 study estimates that ICT-enabled solutions could reduce global CO 2 e emissions by 16.5% in 22 Source: GeSI ICT solutions will enable the low-carbon economy of the future By 25, 7% of the global population will reside in an urban area or city. Source: UN HABITAT The CO 2 e from an annual mobile subscription is equal to driving a car for about 1.5 hours Research presented in this report shows that even with the dramatic growth predicted for ICT, the sector as a whole is unlikely to surpass 2 percent (Figure 1) of total global carbon footprint. This is largely due to advances in technology, and industry efforts to reduce energy consumption. The report also looks at absolute growth in terms of energy use, and outlines how the Networked Society with all its connected devices will affect energy use and carbon footprint. It also describes how ICT can provide transformative solutions to offset total global CO 2 emissions from other sectors. Continued improvements in energy efficiency are essential in order to balance the growth in user numbers and data volumes. The trends examined in this report are based on data collected following improvements that have already been implemented in system and user equipment by Ericsson. Smart grids can help address 67% of the energy lost due to inefficiencies before reaching the consumer Source: Ernest Orlando Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and GeSI 373 million and will transform industries and cities. A 212 study of eight ICT-related services in six countries showed they could produce energy savings of 373 million barrels of oil equivalents per year Source: Yankee Group and GeSI Stockholm Royal Seaport is an ICT-enabled city district that will be climate-positive by 23 Source: Stockholm Royal Seaport Innovation Center The IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Chang and other organizations talk about the general need to reduce carbon emissions and limit climate change. Many governments have set CO 2 reduction targets, but few have linked these targets to the broader use of technology. There is a need for transformative solutions, as described in The Broadband Bridge, a report by the Broadband Commission [2]. This report includes case studies of opportunities to maintain economic development and to use ICT as a way of reducing the 98 percent of energy use and climate impact stemming from non-ict sectors. [1] Ericsson Mobility Report, June 213. [2] The Broadband Bridge Linking ICT with Climate Change, Report by the Broadband Commission, March 212. ERICSSON ENERGY AND CARBON REPORT 3

4 ICT carbon footprint Forecasts in the Ericsson Mobility Report indicate that in 218, 9 percent of the world s population will have mobile coverage, and 6 percent will have the ability to access high-speed LTE data networks. The global carbon footprint of the ICT sector in 27 [3] was estimated at 62 million tonnes CO 2 e, about 1.3 percent of the total global carbon footprint. Since 27, the ICT industry has grown and is forecast to continue to grow. Our future prognoses for ICT [4] indicate the portion of this sector increases slightly to 1.9 percent of global CO 2 e emissions in 22 despite the dramatic growth of ICT. This corresponds to a slight increase in carbon footprint (CO 2 of about 4 percent per year, or a total of around 7 percent between 27 and 22. The estimated total carbon footprint for the ICT sector will be about 1,1 million tonnes (Figure 2) in 22. ICT carbon footprint outlook Mtonnes CO 2 e Figure 2: ICT carbon footprint outlook (Mtonnes CO 2 The ICT footprint defined here includes the impact created by mobile and fixed telecommunication networks, enterprise data networks, data transport networks, data centers and all user equipment connected to networks, such as phones, tablets, PCs and modems. The most significant portion of the footprint may be accounted for by the running of PCs and data centers. The ICT sector in this definition does not include TVs, TV peripherals and other electronics that originally were not connected. These are included with paper media in an industry sector called Entertainment and Media. An estimate of the impact of Entertainment and Media is presented in the Connected devices scenario described below. [1] Ericsson Mobility Report, June 213. [3] Malmodin, J., Moberg, Å., Lundén, D., Finnveden, G., and Lövehagen, N. 21. Greenhouse gas emissions and operational electricity use in the ICT and Entertainment & media sectors. Journal of Industrial Ecology. 14, 5, (October 21), DOI= [4] Malmodin, J., Bergmark, P., Lundén, D. 213, The future carbon footprint of the ICT and E&M sectors, Conference paper and presentation at ICT for Sustainability, (ETH Zurich, Switzerland, February 14-16, 213) Mobile networks and mobile devices (including tablets) PCs (all types, excluding tablets) Data centers, data transmission & enterprise networks Home devices (fixed phones, Customer Premises Equipment (CPE)) Fixed networks 4 ERICSSON ENERGY AND CARBON REPORT

5 Networked society Broadband, mobility and the cloud are driving the evolution of services and experiences. These are increasingly being realized electronically and consumed over the network. This development is the starting point for large-scale innovation from groups ranging from tech-savvy youngsters, to small-scale entrepreneurs, to established businesses and leading industry players from all sectors of society. Eventually, this will drive significant change across all parts of society, affecting all different kinds of activities, and marking the development of a new era. We call this envisioned new era the Networked Society. As a part of this development, connections and digital experiences are expected to be shared not only by today s devices but by most things around us. Anything that can benefit from having a connection will have one: machines, engines, valves, appliances, sensors, vehicles, bikes and meters are just a few examples. The increased use of ICT devices, in our study [4] is estimated to increase from 6 billion to 12.5 billion by 22, and this is the main reason for ICT s increased carbon footprint. At the same time, energy-efficiency improvements have been taken into CO 2e per subscriber outlook Figure (kg CO3: 2 e/user) CO 2 e per subscriber outlook (kg CO 2 e/user) Fixed data Average ICT user Mobile data 22 CO 2 e per data outlook Figure (kg CO4: 2 e/gb) CO 2 e per data outlook (kg CO 2 e/gb) Mobile data Fixed data 22 Ericsson Carbon footprint per average ICT user and per amount of data continues to decrease over time. account when modeling the footprint ofusers and network equipment, and are expected to limit the increase in the ICT sector s impact beyond the predicted levels. Based on an analysis of historical and forecasted data on devices (for example, International Telecommunication Union or ITU statistics on PCs in use and telephone lines [5], and earlier LCA studies), we found that the ICT sector s total carbon footprint per average user including the impact of shared resources such as data centers and network equipment has decreased from about 3kg CO 2 e in 1995 to about 1kg in 27, and is expected to decrease further to about 8kg in 22 (see Figure 3). The main reason for the decreased footprint per average ICT user is that the number of people using mobile devices and mobile access technologies is increasing. These devices are becoming more effective and have lower per-user footprints than fixed PCs and always-on devices such as modems and routers. Dematerialization effects, described on page 1, also play a role, thanks to the greater energy efficiency of battery-operated mobile devices. Fixed networks, on the other hand, have a lower impact per gigabyte (GB), as shown in Figure 4. [4] Malmodin, J., Bergmark, P., Lundén, D. 213, The future carbon footprint of the ICT and E&M sectors, Conference paper and presentation at ICT for Sustainability, (ETH Zurich, Switzerland, February 14-16, 213). [5] ITU, Key Telecom99 document from World Telecom development conference 22, Istanbul, Turkey, March 18-27, 22. ERICSSON ENERGY AND CARBON REPORT 5

6 Connected devices scenario When predicting the future impact of the ICT industry, it is important to consider that in the years to come, not only everyone but also everything is expected to be connected and to communicate. For the first time, based on Ericsson research, a connected devices scenario is presented here, looking at the carbon footprint of the industry. Figure 5: Connected devices scenario Figure Mtonnes 5: Connected CO 2 e devices scenario (Mtonnes CO Connected devices scenario Base line The connected devices scenario illustrates that more equipment than ever will be connected in a variety of industry sectors. In the scenario, 1 billion new connection points such as mobile-broadband gateways and site controllers have been added to the ICT sector. In the Entertainment and Media sector, the scenario includes an additional 16 billion connections to existing TVs and peripherals such as game consoles, audio devices, cameras and car infotainment systems. To fully capture the Networked Society, this study also looked into the anticipated 22 impact caused by the connectivity of a further 12 billion electronic devices in other sectors. These connected electronic devices are expected in areas including: vehicles, home appliances, HVAC (heating, ventilation and air conditioning), meters, production machinery, payment, medical and security products and more. Besides looking at ICT, Entertainment and Media, and other equipment, we have also studied the impact of 5 billion sensors and tags, which are expected to be used by all industry sectors (Figure 5) ICT Entertainment and media Other equipment Sensors and tags In sum, even with a high uptake of connected devices scenario, the additional CO 2 e from manufacture and operations of these new communication modules will not be significant compared to growth projections. Rather this highlights the enabling benefits of the Networked Society in terms of CO 2 reduction potential, efficiency gains and overall benefits to society. 6 ERICSSON ENERGY AND CARBON REPORT

7 Development of networks, data centers and equipment over time This analysis has been prepared to give a view of the developments and impacts of networks, data centers and user equipment. No absolute comparisons should be made because there is less data available for 199 and 2 compared with 21 and 22, and different parameters were used. In 199 there were very few mobile subscribers and relatively few PCs. At that time, PCs were typically officebased, either stand-alone or connected to local networks. Fixed networks were mainly old national telecom networks with inefficient operations and maintenance. Fixed phones were analog and consumed no energy on their own. Data centers or data halls already existed, but the information available Figure 6: 199 today on their energy consumption is limited. Figure (Mtonne 6: CO (Mtonnes CO Networks Data centers User equipment The term ICT was used in the academic world from 1986, but did not become widespread until 2. Telecom and IT became more integrated in 2, and the introduction of fixed broadband began. Most PCs were still used in offices. The old national telecom operators faced new competition and were therefore forced to become more efficient. The mobile networks were a small part of the ecosystem, as were Customer Premises Equipment (CPE) and Figure mobile 7: 2 phones. Figure (Mtonne 7: CO 2 2 (Mtonnes CO By 21 the ICT sector had grown dramatically, and mobile networks and mobile phones were present everywhere. The majority of data traffic, both from companies and households, was connected through fixed networks. About half of all PCs were now used in households. IP telephony Figure had started 8: 21 to take over from traditional fixed phones. Figure (Mtonne 8: CO 21 2 (Mtonnes CO Networks Data centers User equipment For 22, the connected devices scenario has been included in the calculations. One of the remaining uncertainties is the number of PCs due to be in existence; it is possible that handheld tablets and phones will be so user-friendly that the PC no longer plays the same role in the home. If this trend develops more quickly than projected Figure 9: today, 22 the ICT impact will be lower than estimated. Figure (Mtonne 9: CO 22 2 (Mtonnes CO Phone tablets CPE PCs Data centers Networks Data centers User equipment The explanations to the graphs: Mobile network Transport network LAN Fixed network All graphs: Source Ericsson Networks Data centers User equipment ERICSSON ENERGY AND CARBON REPORT 7

8 Energy consumption for operation The total electricity 1 consumption of the ICT sector is forecasted to increase by almost 6 percent from 27 to 22 owing to the increasing number of devices and network expansion. Research outlined on the previous pages relates to the carbon footprint in other words, the whole life-cycle impact of the equipment. Research on electricity consumption of the ICT sector described here represents the electricity used in operating equipment. This is important because carbon emissions in the use phase of the equipment, but it also has a direct impact on the OPEX for the operators. Figure 1: Electricity consumption Figure 1: Electricity consumption (TWh) (TWh) The electricity consumption of fixed networks including local area networks (LANs) and data transport networks is not expected to increase. One important reason for this is the modernization of old traditional telecom networks, which outweighs the increased use of data communication. The electricity consumption of mobile networks, including future wireless access points, is expected to not more than triple by 22, but still represents a limited percentage of the impact of the whole sector thanks to smarter network planning and improvements in the energy efficiency of hardware. New generations of RBSs have shown to be up to 85 percent more energy-efficient in some cases Connected devices scenario Mobile devices PCs (including laptops) CPE (including cordless phones) Data centers Mobile networks Fixed networks The electricity consumption of data centers grew by 1 percent between 2 and 25, and by a further 5 percent between 25 and 21. An increased focus on energy efficiency, cloud services, virtualization and other advances will slow down future growth. Larger data centers and cloud computing have the potential to reduce companies electricity needs, but only if they close down their own data centers and use outsourced solutions instead. The electricity consumption of CPE and fixed phones is expected to increase as the number of connection points 1 For most normal operation of ICT, the energy used is electricity from a grid. This study focuses on the electricity used for operation. rises. It is hard to implement efficient sleep modes for such equipment. Electricity-consumption patterns for PCs have changed as desktops, CRTs and poor power management systems are increasingly replaced by laptops, LCDs and better power management. Despite growth in the numbers of PCs, electricity consumption is not expected to increase significantly. Mobile devices are the most numerous (there are more than 8 billion of them in this scenario), but thanks to low power and improved battery technology, electricity consumption is still expected to be low, even if the number of devices almost triples. 8 ERICSSON ENERGY AND CARBON REPORT

9 Smart network planning Energy costs are among the most significant that network operators have to absorb. The smart energy features in heterogeneous networks illustrate the way Ericsson develops solutions to accommodate dramatic user and data growth without any proportional growth in energy demand. To meet the traffic demands, mobile-broadband operators need to densify base-station deployments especially in urban environments. In these areas, the wireless networks consist of a mixture of traditional large macro cells and small micro or pico cells, a mixture referred to as heterogeneous networks. Adding base stations traditionally brings an increase in power consumption. But with additional functionality in the network specifically addressing energy efficiency it is possible to reduce the required power consumption dramatically. Ericsson Research has created simulations showing the impact of two energy-efficiency features: an improved power amplifier (using micro DTX, discontinuous transmission) for LTE systems and a fast-sleep mode for small cells. Both features save power while maintaining the capacity gains afforded by heterogeneous networks, with an almost negligible impact on performance. Figure X: Power consumption per area (kw/km2) Figure 11: Power consumption per area (kw/km 2 ) HetNet % HetNet +µdtx % HetNet +µdtx + sleep mode Source: Figure 12: Ericsson The heterogeneous network in this research is assumed to consist of three small cells, for capacity boost, in each macro cell. ERICSSON ENERGY AND CARBON REPORT 9

10 ICT addressing the climate challenge Dematerialization and increased efficiency are the two main opportunities for ICT to help society develop. There are several examples of how ICT has changed consumption habits and reduced the flow of products and materials in society. (Just think how many one-time cameras have been replaced with mobile cameras and photo sharing services.) Ericsson has studied several services, presented in Figure 13, calculating the potential of ICT solutions to reduce CO 2 e emissions compared with traditional solutions [6]. The reduction ratio represents the direct and embodied CO 2 e emissions from the ICT solution, set in relation to the potential savings in direct and embodied emissions that the ICT solution enables [7]. By replacing physical products with services, and by helping people to use resources more efficiently, ICT-based solutions can improve basic services while reducing CO 2 e emissions. Another study [8] on efficiency gains in transport systems is described below. By 25, an estimated 7 percent of the world s population will reside in urban areas. Our planet s cities are faced with the challenge of becoming more sustainable while also continuing to drive prosperity. Here, connectivity can play a major role. The city of Curitiba in Brazil was the first in the world to connect public buses to a mobile-broadband network. A connected public-transport system makes for more efficient fuel usage and a corresponding reduction in CO 2 e emissions. Earlier studies on the bus system have shown that people will be attracted to public as opposed to private travel when provided with a more reliable bus service. The Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) system adopted in Curitiba, which is used for 7 percent of all types of public and private commuting, produces approximately 2, tonnes of direct CO 2 e emissions per year compared with 1,5, tonnes related to annual car travel in Figure 13: ICT enabling a low carbon economy, Ericsson case studies ICT service CO 2 Reduction ratio Country m-health > 2 Sweden e-health > 45 Croatia Digital delivery < 2 Spain Virtual presence < 2 Sweden, Global m-money > 65 Kenya Field Force Management Figure 14: Potential savings from ICT, Curitiba Tonne Figure 14: COPotential 2 e savings from ICT, Curitiba (tonnes CO ICT solution < 1 Turkey Bus operation What if buses can operate 1% more efficient? Car travel What if car travel can be reduced by.1%? Embodied ICT Direct (Operation) Fuel supply All graphs: Source Ericsson the city. The ICT portion of the BRT system adds about 5 tonnes of CO 2 e per year. The potential savings can be seen on Figure 14. [6] Research case studies, corporateresponsibility/enabling_a_low_carbon_economy/research_and_standardization. [7] Quantifying emissions right, wp-quantifying-emissions.pdf [8] Connected buses in Curitiba, Ericsson 212, thecompany/docs/corporate-responsibility/211/curibita_final.pdf 1 ERICSSON ENERGY AND CARBON REPORT

11 Reference information Methodology The research presented was conducted at Ericsson Research, in collaboration with internal company experts, customers and partners. Latest estimates on market developments will always be found in the Ericsson Mobility Report [1]. Some numbers presented in this report do not match this latest report but was used in scenarios for calculations of environmental impact at the time when the research was conducted. This shall not be seen as change of position of Ericsson. Some of the results presented on devices and equipment come from research that has been published and reviewed outside the company, but that has also been reviewed by Ericsson experts for relevance and comparability. System boundaries, projections and results are presented in peer-reviewed research papers and scientific conferences. As an industry leader in technology and research, Ericsson has shared results and provided input over the years to SMART 22 [9], SMARTer 22 [1], the Broadband Commission [2], and the European Union (EU) EARTH (Energy Aware Radio and network technologies) project [11] to name a few. A detailed discussion of the boundaries of the assessed ICT sector is given in the study [3][4], including further details of the ICT network and related services. These studies also include a definition of the assessment boundaries of the entertainment and media sector. The boundary between the two sectors is not unambiguous, and it is also changing over time. Further discussion on references [1] The Ericsson Mobility Report, June 213. [2] The Broadband Bridge Linking ICT with Climate Change, Report by the Broadband Commission, March 212. [3] Malmodin, J., Moberg, Å., Lundén, D., Finnveden, G., and Lövehagen, N. 21. Greenhouse gas emissions and operational electricity use in the ICT and Entertainment & media sectors. Journal of Industrial Ecology. 14, 5, (October 21), DOI= [4] Malmodin, J., Bergmark, P., Lundén, D. 213, The future carbon footprint of the ICT and E&M sectors, Conference paper and presentation at ICT for Sustainability, (ETH Zurich, Switzerland, February 14-16, 213). [5] ITU, Key Telecom99 document from World Telecom development conference 22, Istanbul, Turkey, March 18-27, 22. [6] Research case studies, corporateresponsibility/enabling_a_low_carbon_economy/research_and_standardization. [7] Quantifying emissions right, wp-quantifying-emissions.pdf [8] Connected buses in Curitiba, Ericsson 212, thecompany/docs/corporate-responsibility/211/curibita_final.pdf the selected boundaries is therefore included [4]. For the use stage of user equipment, measurements have been prioritized over estimates. For example, the unique measurements relating to electronic devices used in 4 Swedish households over a whole year [12] were used as principal data. For the use stage of networks, measurements taken by operators and service providers have been used as reported to the Carbon Disclosure Project (CDP) and in corporate reporting as well as other publically available technical data (for example, the number of lines and subscriptions). The global average electricity model described in [4] has been used. An important part of the methodology was to forecast the type and number of all devices related to the ICT sector that are expected to be in use between now and 22. Large industry analyst firms market research and future market projections have been used as data sources. These firms include International Data Corporation (IDC) (for its work on PCs and servers) [13] and Display Search (for work on TVs and monitors) [14]. Subscription information was based on prognoses made by ITU [15]. For the mobile subsector s carbon footprint 27-22, a detailed previous study by the EU s EARTH research project [11] was used as a data source. Other more specific studies such as Koomey s study of servers and data centers energy consumption globally [16] were also used as input. As these sources do not make prognoses as far ahead as 22, extrapolations were made for the purposes of the study. [9] GeSI, SMART 22 Enabling the low-carbon economy in the information age, June 28. [1] GeSI, SMARTer22: The Role of ICT in Driving a Sustainable Future, December 212. [11] INFSO-ICT EARTH (EU project) Deliverable D2.1, Economic and Ecological Impact of ICT. WP2_D2.1_v2.pdf [12] Zimmermann, J.P. 29. End-use metering campaign in 4 households in Sweden. Assessment of the potential of electricity savings. Enertech. Eskilstuna: Swedish Energy Agency. [13] IDC PC sales and forecast, Charles Arthur for guardian.co.uk on Monday 6th June UTC. idc-pc-sales-growth-warns, accessed on December 6, 211. [14] Display Search, Worldwide TV Forecast by Technology. Quarterly Global TV Shipment and Forecast Report, November displaysearch/hs.xsl/quarterly_global_tv_shipment_and_forecast_report.asp [15] International Telecommunication Union (ITU), World Telecommunication/ICT Indicators Database 21, 15th Edition, [16] Koomey, J. G Growth in data center electricity use 25 to 21. A report by Analytics Press, completed at the request of The New York Times, accessed in May 212 ERICSSON ENERGY AND CARBON REPORT 11

12 Ericsson is a world-leading provider of communications technology and services. We are enabling the Networked Society with efficient real-time solutions that allow us all to study, work and live our lives more freely, in sustainable societies around the world. Our offering comprises services, software and infrastructure within Information and Communications Technology for telecom operators and other industries. Today 4 percent of the world's mobile traffic goes through Ericsson networks and we support customers' networks servicing more than 2.5 billion subscriptions. We are more than 11, people working with customers in more than 18 countries. Founded in 1876, Ericsson is headquartered in Stockholm, Sweden. In 212 the company's net sales were SEK billion (USD 33.8 billion). Ericsson is listed on NASDAQ OMX, Stockholm and NASDAQ, New York stock exchanges. For more information please contact: corporate.responsibility@ericsson.com Ericsson AB 213 All Rights Reserved. This document was originally produced in English and first published on June 17, 213. Ericsson AB SE Stockholm, Sweden EAB-13:36469 Uen Ericsson AB 213