AUTOMATIC MANAGEMENT OF ENERGY AND ECONOMIC DATA

Transcription

1 SAS 3E ( Eni + Energy + Economic ) AUTOMATIC MANAGEMENT OF ENERGY AND ECONOMIC DATA Dr. Fabio Ercoli - Corporate Strategies Department

2 Why a statistical database? AN ANSWER TO A SIMPLE NEED: an extensive collection of historical and forecast data on : - economic and financial indicators - oil and natural gas business information. FOUR MAJOR FEATURES : extensive geographical and time coverage energy and economic data series for Italy uniform criteria in data presentation and aggregation by different variables easy production and use of reports.

3 Why SAS? Meets all of the following requirements:.multiplatform support. Integration with Windows platform..support for analysis-oriented data models.support for the principal statistical functions and procedures.support for a development tool. fully interaction with the widest range of data structures..support for interface with the internet.overall reliability of the supplier

4 What is BDSTAT? historical series 1/5 BDSTAT is a HYDROCARBON DATA BANK. It contains, for the largest possible list of countries, key data on the oil and natural gas markets: -prices, -production, - oil production, field by field - consumption, - imports and exports, - proven reserves, - stock changes, - international trade. AN ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL DATA BANK. It contains, for the Euro zone and main OECD countries, data regarding: - output and demand, - prices and wages, - money, interest rates and stock markets, -population.

5 What is BDSTAT? architecture 2/5 SAS BASE SAS STAT SAS ETS SAS IT SAS SHARE SAS FSP BDSTAT WEBSERVER UNIX Enterprise Guide SAS CONNECT SAS INTRNET SAS Graph SAS IT WINDOWS SAS directory server Business Analysts

6 What is BDSTAT? data flows 3/5 Economic and Financial Indicators Enterprise Guide e-views IMF Statistical analysis Econometric models EnerData Energy Data Css Analizer BDSTAT PowerSim Import/Export of Natural Gas CediGaz STUECEN s Reports, charts,.pdf Eneco Transportation model OECD - IEA Main Economic Indicators Energy data Refinery industry Web site Online Database Scenarios - Forecast Prices PLATT S Parpinelli TECNON External data series Data Extractor Custom Software data converter Web application Internal Data series

7 What is BDSTAT? software architecture 5/5 BDSTAT INCLUDES: An INTERFACE to manage the metadata and historical series (daily, monthly, quarterly and annual) Customised SAS programs to produce reports Tables Charts THEMATIC DATAMART Oil field production Prices, refinery margin, etc Oil balance Italy energy balance ENECO BDSTAT ON LINE

8 WORLD OIL AND GAS REVIEW A FACTBOOK ON HYDROCARBONS PUBLISHED ANNUALLY SINCE It contains, for the largest possible list of countries, key data on oil and natural gas markets: - proven reserves, production, consumption, imports, exports; - reserve/production, self-sufficiency ratio, per capita consumption. Two special sections, divided in three parts : - Oil production quality, refining industry. -Gas international trade.

9 MONTHLY ECONOMIC ENERGY REPORT TREE SECTIONS DIVIDED INTO : 1) ECONOMY: - INTERNATIONAL KEY INDICATORS -ITALIAN KEY INDICATORS 2) INTERNATIONAL ENERGY: - OIL: World balance, prices, consumption, production, stock changes - NATURAL GAS: balance, production, imports, exports, consumption (calculated observed), stock changes 3) ITALIAN ENERGY: - PRODUCT BALANCE - PRODUCT PRICES AND TAXES

10 DAILY ECONOMIC ENERGY REPORT TWO SECTIONS DIVIDED INTO : 1) ECONOMY: Exchange rate, Interest rate, Stock market. 2) INTERNATIONAL ENERGY: Crude marker prices, Refinery margins, Product prices for NWE and Mediterranean areas, Differencial prices by areas

11 WOGR 2005 OIL NATURAL GAS Source: Eni World Oil and Gas Review 2005

12 WOGR 2005 Source: Eni World Oil and Gas Review 2005

13 WOGR 2005 Source: Eni World Oil and Gas Review 2005

14 WOGR 2005 : NATURAL GAS PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION Source: Eni World Oil and Gas Review 2005

15 WOGR 2005 : NATURAL GAS RESERVES PRODUCTION RATIO Source: Eni World Oil and Gas Review 2005

16 WOGR 2005 : Refining Capacity (2004) World Primary Capacity : 86 million b/d World Conversion Capacity : 33 million b/d North America 22% Latin America 10% Western Europe 17% Central Europe 3% Eastern Europe 8% L. America 9% Western Europe 14% Central Eu. 2% Eastern Eu. 3% C. Asia 1% Middle East 4% Central Asia 1% Africa 2% Developing Asia Pacific 14% Ind. Asia Pacific 13% Africa 4% Middle East 8% N. America 37% Developing Asia Pacific 17% Industr. Asia Pacific 11% PRIMARY CAPACITY OCSE: 45 million b/d (52%) OPEC: 10 million b/d (11%) CONVERSION CAPACITY OCSE: 21 million b/d (62%) OPEC: 2 million b/d (6%) Source: Eni World Oil and Gas Review 2005, Parpinelli-Tecnon

17 WOGR 2005 : Refining Capacity (2004) World Primary Capacity :86 millon b/d Topping capacity of unit included in number of refinery World Conversion Capacity :33 million b/d Sum of fuel oil conversion capacity converted to Catcracking FCC equivalent capacity Source: Eni World Oil and Gas Review 2005, Parpinelli-Tecnon

18 WOGR 2005 : Crude production by quality(thousand b/d) 26 = 35 API > 1% Sulphur = 35 API < 0,5% Sulphur 26 = 35 API < 0,5% Sulphur < 26 API > 1% Sulphur Source: Eni World Oil and Gas Review 2005

19 WOGR 2005 LNG importers: the first ten countries in the world Billion cubic metres japan s. korea usa spain taiwan francia italy turkey belgium india Source: Eni World Oil and Gas Review 2005

20 BILANCIOENERGIAELETTRICA.htm BEN ITALIAN ENERGY BALANCE

21 NORTH SEA Main production areas: initial oil reserves 2004

22 LONG TERM BALANCE OECD oil demand ( thousand b/d ) Inizia guerra IRAN IRAQ La produzione OPEC diminuisce, l Arabia Saudita aumenta OECD PACIFIC 68% OECD NORTH AMERICA 45% OECD EUROPE 15%

23 LONG TERM BALANCE ASIA Pacific oil demand (Thousand b/d) OECD Pacific 68% Inizia guerra IRAN IRAQ India 539% China e HK 761% Other non OECD ASIA 453%

24 LONG TERM BALANCE OPEC crude production ( thousand b/d ) Inizia guerra IRAN IRAQ Abbandonato il sistema dei prezzi ufficiali dei greggi Il venezuela apre alle compagnie straniere Venezuela -41% Nigeria 57% Iraq 8% Iran -15% L'OPEC taglia la produzione Other OPEC 2% Saudi Arabia 91%

25 LONG TERM BALANCE WORLD Oil production excl. FSU (thousand b/d) Middle East 287% Crisi in Asia Inizia guerra IRAN IRAQ Asia 453% America 310% Africa 583%

26 LONG TERM BALANCE China: Oil Demand and net Imports 7 5 million barrels/day Demand Net Imports

27 ENECO: Energy and Economy on line

28 ENECO Report menù

29 ENECO DATABASE ( Inquiry & Output ) : pesos Argentina Titolo Paese Area Sottoarea Area Compa rto Voce Fonte Freque nza Unità di misura TASSO DI CAMBIO PESO ARGENTINO/U S$ - GIORNALIERO ECONOMIA INTERNAZIONALE CAMBI ARGENTINA FMI - UIC 365 UNITÀ DI VALUTA PER US$ PRODUZIONE DI PETROLIO - ARGENTINA (M) CONSUMO DI PETROLIO - ARGENTINA (A) ENERGIA INTERNAZIONALE ENERGIA INTERNAZIONALE PETROLIO PRODUZIONE ARGENTINA IEA 12 MIGLIAIA DI BARILI GIORNO PETROLIO CONSUMO ARGENTINA IEA 1 MIGLIAIA DI BARILI GIORNO RISERVE DI PETROLIO - ARGENTINA (A) ENERGIA INTERNAZIONALE PETROLIO RISERVE ARGENTINA ENERD ATA 1 MIGLIAIA DI BARILI GIORNO PRODUZIONE DI GAS - ARGENTINA ENERGIA INTERNAZIONALE GAS PRODUZIONE ARGENTINA ENERD ATA 1 MILIONI DI METRI CUBI IMPORTAZIONI DI GAS NATURALE VIA GASDOTTO ARGENTINA - PROV. BOLIVIA ENERGIA INTERNAZIONALE GAS IMPORTAZIONI ARGENTINA IMPORT AZIONI DI GAS NATUR ALE BOLIVI A CEDIGA Z 1 MILIONI DI METRI CUBI ESPORTAZIONI DI GAS NATURALE VIA GASDOTTO ARGENTINA - DEST. CILE ENERGIA INTERNAZIONALE GAS ESPORTAZIONI ARGENTINA ESPORT AZIONI DI GAS NATUR ALE CILE ENERD ATA 1 MILIONI DI METRI CUBI

30 ENECO DAILY ECONOMIC AND ENERGY REPORT Source: Fed. Res., E.C.B.

31 ENECO DAILY ECONOMIC AND ENERGY REPORT Source: Global Insight

32 ENECO DAILY ECONOMIC AND ENERGY REPORT

33 ENECO MONTLY ECONOMIC ENERGY REPORT

34 ENECO MONTLY ECONOMIC ENERGY REPORT

35 Source:OECD-IEA ENECO MONTLY ECONOMIC ENERGY REPORT

36 Source:OECD-IEA ENECO ITALY MONTHLY ECONOMIC REPORT

37 ENECO ITALY MONTHLY ECONOMIC REPORT