Hjelp til den viktigste logistikken - forutsi det uforutsigbare

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1 Hjelp til den viktigste logistikken - forutsi det uforutsigbare Marianne Jahre Institutt for Strategi og Logistikk, Handelshøyskolen BI LTH, Lunds Universitet NOREPS førjulsarrangement 29.november 2012 Contribute - The use of logistics service providers in international humanitarian response Purpose Improve the effectiveness and efficiency of disaster operations by indentifying ways of developing and maintaining well functioning relationships and collaboration between (commercial) service providers and the humanitarian organisations Deliverables Tools for improving practice and learning; e.g. teaching cases & exercises; new business models & concepts Publications; e.g. academic & practitioner journals; workshops; seminars; PhD., master, bachelor thesis 2 1

2 Background challenges in disaster relief logistics Planning & running good operations difficult Lack of logistics specialists & expertise Lack of systematic overview of needs & resources Lack of cooperation & scepticism between the actors Humanitarian Military Commercial Donors Host governments Pictures provided by 3 Natural disasters: development and consequences Criteria Number of natural disasters Estimated economic losses US$3.55 billion US$43.44 billion (approximate figures) Number of people dead 133,858 14,878 Number of people affected , ,119,886 More aid required Source: EM-Dat 2

3 Funding has increased. $20,0 $18,0 $16,0 $14,0 $12,0 $10,0 $8,0 $6,0 $4,0 $2,0 $0, % 58% 60% 62% 64% 66% 68% 70% 72% 74% % CAP needs met but the number of unmet needs has grown Funding International disaster response 18 to 30$ billion per year (100%) Funding logistics activities Approximately billion per year (60%) Use of logistics funding Logistics activities (50%) Waste: + 5 billion/year Set-up and duplication (40%) Mgt inefficiency (10%) 3

4 Visibility Planning 20% funding Disaster 80% funding Coordination Assessment Press release, July 2012 (CRED, UCL and ECHO) Obtaining objective and reliable statistics on devastating events is priority. Links between the evidence and effective humanitarian responses needs strenghening. There are many challenges, including robust and standardized data capture in the field, and criteria to establish objective and reliable data. Kirstin Hedström, Humanitarian Policy Advisor, European Commission, DG ECHO: We are eager to see strenghening of needs assessment and the overall evidence base for humanitarian decision-making. 4

5 A demand forecasting tool to estimate the required logistics capacity for international humanitarian response with: 1. A one year demand forecast 2. A demand forecast for any given operation on an as needed basis WHAT The Humanitarian Logistics Demand Forecast PURPOSE Provides visibility on what is likely to happen. Data can be taken to forecast: 1. The global demand for material response 2. The initial and on-going demand for material response in any given disaster type in any given region PREDICTING THE UNPREDICTABLE Compared to prevailing practice; use forecast rather than actual needs in the first phase Compared to prevailing theory; historical data is available and can be used to develop such forecasts Disaster type Cost Regions Volume Humanitarian Logistics Demand Forecast Actors Weight Items Families affected Logistics Services 5

6 How can HLDF help? Support translation of early warning into forecasts of operations and funding requirements, thus early action Early engagement with donors and other government entities to prepare effective response Timely, transparent and effective decision making and coordination Establishment of systems for information sharing and management Produce a demand forecast in early stages to initiate response while waiting for assessment results MORE EFFECTIVE RESPONSE Estimated impact: potential logistics savings of 3$ bn per year Data-collection & prototype Testing Web based demo-tool Prototype: 63 disasters 2005/ ,000 data inputs Filters: - Disaster types - Regions - Actors - Response Items - Logistics Services Output: - No. of disasters - Families needing assistance - Response items (units, kg, m3, cost) - Logistics services (units, kg, m3, cost) Gaps and improvements defined 6

7 1. Define requirements 2. Collect data and develop prototype 3. Test, evaluate and define gaps 4. Develop Demo and search additional funding 5. Develop and implement HLDF Sept Nov 2012 Completed EUproposal COMMIT Next steps I tillegg til kunnskap om fremtidig etterspørsel og tilgjengelige ressurser... så trenger nødhjelpssektoren Mer fokus på strategiske aspekter av logistikk/scm tilgang på mer og bedre kompetanse gjennom utdanning og rekruttering... Mer fokus på innkjøp bedre samarbeide med leverandører av varer og tjenester; bli mer profesjonelle innkjøpere... Mer fokus på utvikling av nye produkter og tjenester aktørene trenger hjelp til å Definere sine fremtidige behov gitt endringer feks som urbanisering, flere mindre/mellomstore katastrofer, fokus på miljø Utvikle nye/tilpasse eksisterende produkter i samarbeide med sine leverandører Gjøre bruk av relevante konsepter/teknologi i andre sektorer, feks. IKEAifisering; outsourcing; infrastruktur-konsepter som IT, WATSAN, energi, shelter, etc. etc

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