3C: Measurement of Asbestos Bodily Injury Liabilities

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1 1995 CASUALTY LOSS RESERVE SEMINAR 3C: Measurement of Asbestos Bodily Injury Liabilities Author: Susan L Cross, Consulting Actuary %illinghast/towers Perdn John P. Doucette, Consulting Actuary TiUinghast/Towers Perrin

2 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar Chicago, Illinois September 18, 1995 Measurement of Asbestos Bodily Injury Liabilities Susan L. Cross John P. Doucette SESSION 3C

3 Background Recent Activities CCR Futures Deal Outlook Reserving Claim Allocation Model Overview Outline

4 , r a m Background History of Asbestos Developments Asbestos o what? where? when? Asbestos related diseases Mesothelioma Lung cancer Other cancer Asbestosis Pleural plaques

5 Background I I History of Asbestos Developments m Emergence of BI claims Products liability - - Premises and operations

6 Background Asbestos Exposure Events Building construction industries World War ship building \ Postwar product expansion Permissible exposure limit (PEL) reduced to 5.0 f/ml i \ 1 I PEL PEL reduced to 0.5 f/ml PEL reduced to 0.1 f/ml l reduced to s~i~ 2.0 f/ml PEL I I~-\ i~ ' reduced to!!i i 0.2 f/ml i ' f j-.; I., t,,....e_. " ~ C L T - ~ - S... ~ ~. - L ~ ~ S = " ~...._L~- _ +. "" i~ :'i ~j i

7 Background Asbestos Litigation/Claim Events Borel vs. Fibreboard,\ i! t~ iz i: i!.!. I Insurance coverage decisions :! J-iVi bankruptcy ACF :,. formed Claims from tire, steel, sheet metal workers -! L ACF dissolved/ccr formed," \. Ii ~. i. ;} Defendant group expands!- 1 i" : Keene proposes federal solution CCR futures deal proposed./, Preliminary court approval of futures deal i ;2 i: i.!

8 ~ ~ ~ ~ ' ~ 1 ~, ~.~ ~ ~ r q Recent Activities Progress toward resolution of bankruptcies/trust funds Johns-Manville 48 Insulations Keene Eagle-Picher Global Settlements - CCR/Georgine o Fibreboard/Ahearn "Spillover ' from insolvent to solvent defendants

9 Recent Activities Insurers are strengthening asbestos reserves along with pollution Continental $400M Fireman's Fund $800M Swiss Re $700M 1993 US industry estimated strengthening: $4.3B (per A.M. Best)/42% for asbestos Lloyd's moved to quantify liabilities and form Equitas Expanded disclosure requirements - SEC NAIC Annual Statement

10 CCR Futures Deal Stipulation of settlement Class of future claimants Defendants represented by CCR Settles 77,000 pending cases

11 CCR Futures Deal Establishes claim processing procedures Medical criterion Dollar ranges by disease Extraordinary claims Maximum case load Total $1.2 billion maximum payout over 10 years

12 ~%~`~'~,c-~``~`c;'~``~-".~.~`~/``3t~-~t~*;.~`~`~```~;`~.~``~{~`~&~-~:;~.~-~=~l#. CCR Futures Deal :~.,i.~:~: t~=q~.'~e."-.'~.~,..~-~.:'.y~.~'~;j~"~:':'7"., --E;;,~-'~c..~.._"~'~--_~?JL~_.:~,.,~,.z.-~ vz._... --~?.1 Mesothelioma Negotiated Average Value Range 37,000-60,000 Lung Cancer 19,000 30,000 Other Cancer 9,500 12,500 Non-Malignant 5,800 7,500

13 ~:~~,..:;:,.:i i-'-. : " i' InCludes 1-U"/o increase in years~1998, CCR Futures Deal

14 Outlook Manville Trust study indicates that 40% of ultimate counts had been filed as of year-end 1992 (201 K of 504K) This implies 48% filed as of 12/31/94. Reflecting changes in average claim amounts, the estimated claim dollars are approximately 30% to 40% reported,

15 Outlook!1 The impact of policy limits and reserves for IBNR claims may increase the estimate of insurance industry recognition to 45% - 60% of ultimate. Ultimate Asbestos BI + PD losses to US insurance industry are estimated to be $34B to $47B.

16 Reserving What makes reserving for asbestos BI claims different from traditional products liability claims? Long latency period Lack of historical data Potential involvement of multiple policy periods Magnitude Asbestos losses will never follow a pattern of accident year development.

17 How are claims allocated to policy year? Claim Allocation mm Theory Exposure trigger Continuous/tripple trigger Practice

18 Coverage Block Example Claim Allocation 1976 End of Initial Coverage Block 1982 First Asbestos Exclusion E w ==0 m Paid Consumption Likely Allocation of Pending Cases Coverage Available for Future Cases 1950 t Years

19 Introduction Model Overview Policy limits analysis Bodily injury exposures Claim experience compared to policy exposures Sample group - categorize by tier

20 Procedure Model Overview Determine sample group Collect claim data for sample group Collect policy data for sample group [] Restate limits for reinsurance policies Project ground-up losses and expenses by insured by calendar year Spread costs over coverage block Calculate liability in layer of coverage Extrapolate model results to all insureds

21 Asbestos Tier System Model Overview Tier 1 This is the group of primary asbestos defendants who are expected to exhaust nearly all available insurance coverage. Tier 2 This corresponds to the group of asbestos defendants who have been involved in asbestos litigation almost since inception, but whose share is smaller than Tier 1.

22 Asbestos Tier System Model Overview Tier 3 This is a newer group of defendants who are being brought into the asbestos litigation arena due to the bankruptcy of first and second tier companies. Many tier 3 defendants face substantial numbers of claims and high defense costs, but relatively low average indemnity payments. Tier 4 This corresponds to defendants who never manufactured or distributed asbestos products, but rather owned or operated property where asbestos products were used A tier 4 defendant's liability is related to contractors or third parties and in some cases employees

23 Data Requirements for Each Insured in Sample Group Model Overview Insured's ground-up claim experience Cumulative paid indemnity and expense Number of claims filed Average indemnity per claim Ratio of expense to indemnity

24 Data Requirements for Each Insured in Sample Group Model Overview Policy exposure details Limit, attachment point and share by year, including underlying policy if reinsurance Asbestos exclusion? Expense treatment Coverage block, if available

25 Scenario Parameters Model Example Modeling Insurer XYZ's asbestos bodily injury liabilities insured 3 is one of 20 insureds in the selected sample group Insured 3 is a Tier 2 company [] Model Scenario is: 5% annual severity trend coverage block

26 Model Example I ~ - - ~ - E : :: " -~'~-Z,,~:k~,: '~ : ::: 4.~,~ ~ L. ~ --- -~: t, ~. ~ - ~ - ' ~ - ~. 2 : ~ :, :. : ~, ~, ~ - - ~- -- _~_~m, ":::':.:_~,-~.,[ Insured 3 Claim Data (A) (B) (C) (D) cumulative reported claims average reported claim severity expense to indemnity ratio reported loss and expense (A) x (B)x [1 o0 + (C)] = 40K $1,ooo o5 $60M

27 Insured 3 Policy Data Model Example ~ ~ '. " ~.,.. --", -' " ~.: "." "~ - ~- ', " ".----~', -, :'-'. :Y "~ ~,~.~. ",.~:- '=/'" ~'~ :~: ": "~':.~s ~'~;:i~ ~''':S~': i.:~-~-~--.:.,..~-~-,.- '-.. p. re,,.,,... Percentage " '~"~ ~ Attachmen [ H.,,.Ois~ " - "yttc " ~xp-:- '......

28 Model Example Projection of Ground-up Losses & Expenses by Calendar Year Calendar Year (A) Reported Inc. # Claims 2,500 2,200 2,200 2,200 2,100 (B) Trended Severity $1,050 $1,103 $1,158 $1,216 $1,276 (C) Expense-to-Indemnity 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% (D) Incremental Loss & Exp. $3.94M $3.64M $3.82M $4.01M $4102M (E) Cumulative Loss & Exp. Notes (D) = (A) x (B) x (1.0 + (C)) (E) = (D) + Prior (E) $63.94M $67.58M $71.40M $75.41M $79.43M

29 Spread of Costs Over Coverage Block Model Example Coverage Block- 20 years Allocation Methodology to year- equal weights!~... each year gets 1/20 = 5% of costs

30 Spread of Costs Over Coverage Block Model Example Policy Year 1967 "V r $3.20M $3.38M $3.57M $3.77M $3.97M 1968 $3.20M $3.38M $3.57M $3.77M $3.97M 1970 $3.20M $3.38M $3.57M $3.77M $3.97M

31 Calculation of Liability in Layer Model Example ~ " i i:i i i' i, 7 i r. i i " i ~[i ' " " : ' i " : Z " i r i " ~ :,[ : ' ~i ~ i Z ~ 'i.. i i "., : "i : i i i i: ~ + +. i:~ ~ ~ ' i Z~ ~ : " i i~ i i : ~ + i b 7~I,, ~ I i " ~ "db i:. I~2: >i i ~ i ~ i i i i' 2.1~+ i; i : " i; li.+.} i". ~:, ".... d i' : ~ i-- ~ r i i i ~. i i Ill i,, " ' ~ i ' ". ri:i.>" i [ " ~ # i. ~: i. " i i i i I + : ~. [ ~. :, ~ i " d J " ~. i * * r i" i i J i i " " i~, "!i ] i * ~: Ill'' [~ +,[i 'i ~". " " "ri'i. ~ ~.; <li:~ i" : ' I ' ill " } i~ i : "~ " Id : " >i ".~. : ~ i" i ~" : i i :..., i i i, i ' i" i[:~ i" i:t ~ i~ "i' i.i "..., i " i. i " ' i~ ~ ', ; :}]' ~ ~ ~ ~ [; i ~', i ]. : ":} :[~:~I':" 1~ :~ ' ~ li'[;~[ :' ' t U.! i~!i~ m:i. : :;- :: ~;~-; " " " :: ' : :: :':. ::: Y ij, f -" h' '~ ; ::7:::: "!:, ::: ~-=:,:; ~;! 7 '~Ch~:t::i[!~Si: 4::!~:~LI!:I~ "'[:7:;,' ~.-]!- "I ]:"," '~ " ' " " " :,- " " ~"', ~",. ' 7 --~:': "".',' ''~''<-''', "_' 7:7 :~- - "h.. ',, : "[ ~i~" ~.~,. '... :" -- :'~. ~ ~ - ~, ~ 'i' :-,,~i "~i~ '-' ~: - - ~. ":~,', "." - ~ f -:"~'i~ d ~ i ~ ' m ~ i ~ _ "~'~" ~._.'!.. i. ~ '' ~ i ~ ~.,(~ ~, :~" ~ll.i i ~, ~ i~ i,. ~". ~. "~ ~' ~ li,:~i_ ~ i]':j i i ':~[~ ~ "~ : :i~ ~ ~:~i~'~ ~i~. ~ ~,"~'' ':" ''~ ~i ' ~ ~,i i' ~'~;: 'i'~ ~i i ~ :~".~,~ 'li" [ ~]i ~)~ ~I'~3~, ''i'l = ~" ~..~,~ "~" ~ ~:~i~,~" lli~ ~... ~,. Ii,~li" ' "l~' ~ :"',,,~'l ~,~]~'~,~ ~,'~. ~:~: i.,'~ ~ ~I r~ ~', ~ J~;i ~, I ~ [i~}i" i' ~ i ~i 'l~ 7 ; ' [~''~ ~.. ~... i.. ~. ;.". ~ ~.r I... ~'~'~ ~ ' "~'~, ~'~i ~'Z~ ~i "" ' "~' ~ ~ ~ ' '.', ""~'~!'

32 Extrapolation of Results Model Example Sum liability in layers across all insureds for total liability for sample group Extrapolate this result by percent of policy layer exhausted by tier development factor by tier average ultimate loss method

33 1.995 CASUALTY LOSS RESERVE SEMINAR 3D: Reinsurance Reserving H Moderator: Panelist: Stuart B. Mathewson, Consulting Actuary Tillinghast/Towers Perrin Valerie L. Schmid-Sadwin, Assistant Vice President Tillinghast/Towers Perrin

34 3D: REINSURANCE RESERVING 1995 Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar September 18, 1995 Stuart B. Mathewson Tillinghast/Towers Perrin

35 REINSURANCE RESERVING ISSUES Data Base Issues Adjustments Methods

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