National Investment Center (NIC)

Transcription

1 Market Fundamentals and Trends in Senior Living National Investment Center (NIC) ALFA Annual Conference 2010

2 Agenda 1. Fundamentals, Insights and Trends Trends, Property Types, Rent Growth, CRE Comparison, Housing, Employment 2. Market by Market Evidence of the Bottom 3. What Has Changed? Occupancy Distributions, Rent Growth Distributions 4. Financing What Has Changed? Who Is and Is Not tlending? National Investment Center for the Seniors Housing & Care Industry 2

3 Occupancy Has Declined Seniors Housing Occupancy, Supply and Demand Trends; MAP 31 5,000 Supply Demand Occupancy 93.0% Units Absorp ption & Invent ory Growth 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, ,000 2, % 91.0% 90.0% 89.0% 88.0% 87.0% 86.0% Occupancy 3,000 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q % National Investment Center for the Seniors Housing & Care Industry 3

4 And Across All Property Types 1Q07 to 4Q09 Occupancy Change by Property Type; basis points, MAP 31 0 CCRC Combined IL Freestanding IL Combined AL Freestanding AL Basis Po oints bps Change Since 1Q National Investment Center for the Seniors Housing & Care Industry 4

5 Seniors Housing Rents Continue to Grow YOY Asking Rent Growth Trends; Sources: MBA Quarterly Data Book; PPR; NIC MAP 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% Seniors Housing Office Multifamily 4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 National Investment Center for the Seniors Housing & Care Industry 5

6 But at a Slower Pace Seniors Housing YOY Rent Growth; MAP 31 5% 4% IL YOY Rent Growth AL YOY Rent Growth 3% 2% 1% 4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 National Investment Center for the Seniors Housing & Care Industry 6

7 Housing is a Driver of IL Demand IL Occupancy and Residential House Price Trends; Sources: S&P Case Shiller and NIC MAP 200 S&P/Case Shiller National Home Price Index IL Occupancy (Right Scale) 94.0% % % % 90.0% 89.0% 88.0% % % 100 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q % National Investment Center for the Seniors Housing & Care Industry 7

8 Employment is a Driver of AL Demand AL Occupancy and Change in Employment; Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, NIC MAP; MAP 31 1,000, % 500, % 0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 Q/Q Change in Total Nonfarm Employment AL Occupancy (Right Scale) 90.0% 0% 89.0% 88.0% 2,000, % 2,500,000 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q % National Investment Center for the Seniors Housing & Care Industry 8

9 Metro Level Declines are Far and Wide 1Q07 to 1Q10 Seniors Housing Occupancy Changes; basis points, MAP Houston, TX San Diego, CA Denver, CO Portland, OR Atlanta, GA Kansas City, MO Cincinnati, OH Seattle, WA Washington, DC San Antonio, TX Chicago, IL Philadelphia, PA Tampa, FL Los Angeles, CA Miami, FL Sacramento, CA Boston, MA MAP 31 Detroit, MI Phoenix, AZ Dallas, TX St. Louis, MO Pittsburgh, PA San Francisco, CA Riverside, CA Cleveland, OH Minneapolis, MN San Jose, CA Baltimore, MD Orlando, FL New York, NY Las Vegas, NV National Investment Center for the Seniors Housing & Care Industry 9

10 Evidence of the Bottom YOY Change in All Occupancy (bps); Minneapolis Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 National Investment Center for the Seniors Housing & Care Industry

11 Evidence of the Bottom YOY Change in All Occupancy (bps); Miami Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q National Investment Center for the Seniors Housing & Care Industry

12 Evidence of the Bottom YOY Change in All Occupancy (bps); Detroit Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 National Investment Center for the Seniors Housing & Care Industry

13 Evidence of the Bottom YOY Change in All Occupancy (bps); Riverside Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 National Investment Center for the Seniors Housing & Care Industry

14 Evidence of the Bottom YOY Change in All Occupancy (bps); Tampa Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 National Investment Center for the Seniors Housing & Care Industry

15 The Occupancy Landscape has Changed Seniors Housing Occupancy Distributions; MAP % 90% 80% of Properties Perecent 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% % 90 95% 85 90% 80 85% 0 80% 0% 1Q07 1Q10 National Investment Center for the Seniors Housing & Care Industry 15

16 Degrees of Metro Area Stress Percent of Seniors Housing Properties 80% or Less Occupied; MAP 31 Rank Markets with Lowest Share of Lowest Occupied Properties (based on 1Q10) 1Q07 1Q10 1 Minneapolis, MN 1% 6% 2 New York, NY 7% 6% 3 Tampa, FL 4% 8% 4 Boston, MA 1% 8% 5 Pittsburgh, PA 6% 9% Markets with Highest Share of Lowest Occupied Properties (based on 1Q10) 1Q07 1Q10 27 Las Vegas, NV 33% 24% 28 San Jose, CA 13% 26% 29 Chicago, IL 14% 27% 30 Kansas City, MO 16% 27% 31 Dallas, TX 18% 28% National Investment Center for the Seniors Housing & Care Industry

17 Not Raising Rents? Seniors Housing Rent Growth Distributions; MAP 31 Percent of Properties Rii Raising Rents 0 1% YOY Percent of Properties Rii Raising Rents 5% (or more) YOY 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 National Investment Center for the Seniors Housing & Care Industry 17

18 National Investment Center for the Seniors Housing & Care Industry 18

19 Financing Has Changed Annual Financing Flows; Source: Federal Reserve, f Commercial Bank Loans Commercial Credit Loans REITs CMBS Billions of Dollars National Investment Center for the Seniors Housing & Care Industry 19

20 But The GSEs are Still Lending GSE Total Multifamily (including Seniors) Mortgages Outstanding; Source: Federal Reserve of Dollars ($ $) Billions Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 National Investment Center for the Seniors Housing & Care Industry 20

21 Seniors Housing Loan Volume has Slowed Annual Seniors Housing & Long Term Care Loan Volume; Source: NIC KFIs $9,000 $8,000 $7,639 Millions $7,000 $6,000 $5,000 $4,000 $3,000 $2,000 $1,000 $ $6,280 $4,510 $4,034 $2,761 $2, National Investment Center for the Seniors Housing & Care Industry 21

22 And SHC Construction Lenders are Not Lending Annual Seniors Housing & Long Term Care Construction Loan Volume; Source: NIC KFIs Millio ons of Dollar rs National Investment Center for the Seniors Housing & Care Industry 22

23 And Other Banks Are Struggling Number of Troubled Banks; Source: FDIC National Investment Center for the Seniors Housing & Care Industry 23

24 Defaults are Rising End of Year Default Rate for Commercial Mortgages Held By Banks Source: FDIC, Real Estate Econometrics 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% Projection Trend 1% 0% National Investment Center for the Seniors Housing & Care Industry 24

25 Is Financing Available? Acquisitions Maturing Debt/Recapitalize Renovate/Modernize Construction National Investment Center for the Seniors Housing & Care Industry 25

26 And on What Terms? Property Types Financed Appetite/ Liquidity GSEs IL, AL High (steady to declining) General Terms Max LTV 65 75%; DSCR 1.3+; Min 90% Occupancy; 5 25 Yr Term HUD SNF, AL High (steady to Max LTV 80 85%; 85%; DSCR 1.45+; Up to 35 Yr declining) Term; New Construction REITs All Medium (steady to increasing) 100% of Purchase Price; Generally 8.5%+ Lease Rate; Property Taxes Upon Sale Regional Banks All Low (steady) Construction, Bridge, some Permanent; 70% and Under Community Banks All Medium (increasing) i Commercial Credit $10 million Loan size, Look for participation i for Higher Amounts All Low (steady) Up to 85% LTV, 5 Yr Term Max, DSCR N/A, Some Recourse National Investment Center for the Seniors Housing & Care Industry 26

27 Fannie and Freddie are In Business, For Now Annual Net Income; Source: Thompson Reuters $10 $0 $10 Billions $20 $30 Fannie Mae Freddie Mac $40 $50$ 0 $ National Investment Center for the Seniors Housing & Care Industry 27

28 What to Look for in 2010 Seniors Housing Construction vs. Supply Growth; MAP 31 25,000 Number of Units Under Construction (Left Scale) Annual Inventory Growth (Right Scale) 3.0% 20, % 15,000 10, % 1.5% 1.0% 5, % 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 00% 0.0% National Investment Center for the Seniors Housing & Care Industry