Gross Trade Accounting, Cross Country Production Sharing and Global Value-Chain

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1 Go Tade ccounting, Co Count Poduction Shaing and Gloal Value-Chain Zhi Wang United State Intenational Tade Commiion aed on Tacing alue-added and doule counting in go expot Koopmam, Wang and Wei, meican Economic Reiew, 4(): , 4; and NER wp9677 Quantifing Intenational Poduction Shaing at the ilateal and Secto Leel Wang, Wei and Zhu The Thid Wold KLEMS Confeence, Toko, Ma 9-, 4 The iew expeed in thi peentation ae olel of the peente. It i not meant to epeent in anwa the official iew of the USITC and it Commiione

2 Peentation Outline Oeiew of exiting concept and method in tade in alueadded and etical pecialization liteatue and thei hotcoming Decompoition of alue-added poduction (fowad linkage) Decompoition of final demand (ackwad linkage) Decompoition of go tade flow (eond Leontief inight) Ue two and thee count cae to illutate the coe idea of go tade accounting method and deiation of the decompoition fomula Go expot = expot of alue added + dometic alue added that etun home + foeign alue added + doule counting due to tade in intemediate good Wh we think the new accounting famewok can ehape ou undetanding of gloal tade

3 Motiation Standad/official tade tatitic ae mileading in the peence of tade in intemediate good; Need a famewok to idge the gap etween official tade data (in go tem) and national account tatitic (in alue added tem) ; Need a method to full account intemediate tade. Quantifing doule counting at ecto and ilateal leel and inetigate the ouce and tuctue of the doule counting and thei implication fo co count poduction haing and a count poition and paticipation in gloal alue-chain (GVC); Need a unified famewok that net meaue of etical pecialization, tade in alue-added and othe IO aed decompoition method in the liteatue a pecial cae; Need a tanpaent famewok help policmake and the pulic to dicoe GVC-elated infomation maked official tade data. 3

4 Meauing Dometic and Foeign Content in Expot: Oiginal HI meaue of etical pecialization count can paticipate in etical pecialization in two wa - Two meaue of etical pecialization ue impoted intemediate input to poduce expot; VS meaue the alue of impoted content emodied in a count expot expot intemediate good that ae ued a input anothe count to poduce good fo expot; VS meaue intemediate expot ent indiectl though othe countie Two ke aumption tandad HI meaue: the intenit in the ue of impoted input i the ame fo good poduced fo expot and fo dometic ale. Not tue fo poceing tade in a lage nume of deeloping countie. all impoted intemediate input ae % foeign ouced Undeetimate dometic alue-added hae in expot, paticulal fo deeloped countie ince thei impot often emodied a lage hae of it own alue-added. 4

5 Newe Meaue of Tade in Value-added Value-added expot and VX Ratio Value-added poduced in ouce count ut aoed in detination count. Johnon and Noguea () ugget ue alue-added expot to go expot atio a umma meaue of alue-added content of tade and index of doule counting in tade tatitic; Two majo hotcoming of VX atio It i not well-ehaed at the ecto, ilateal, o ilateal ecto leel. Thee i no guaantee that the alue added expot ae le than go expot at thee diaggegated leel. Een when the VX atio i popel edefined, it till can not captue ome of the impotant featue of intenational poduction haing. 5

6 Two Majo Limitation of VX atio The ke to undetanding the fit hotcoming of VX atio i a ditinction etween a fowad-linkage-aed meaue of alue-added expot (VX_F), and a ackwad-linkage-aed meaue of alue-added expot (VX_) at ecto leel. The ke to undetand the econd hotcoming i that the tuctue of alue-added expot and doule counting eide thei total um contain impotant infomation of co count poduction haing. Two countie can hae identical alue added to go expot atio ut e diffeent tuctue of alue added expot and doule counting due to thei diffeent ole in GVC. 6

7 Two tpe alue-added tade at ecto leel -example In the electonic ecto, fowad linkage aed meaue would include the alue added ceated poduction facto emploed at the electonic ecto and incopoated into go expot of electonic itelf (diect dometic alue-added expot), a well a expot of compute, conume appliance, and automoile (indiect dometic alue-added expot), ut exclude alue-added contiution fom an othe ecto. In compaion, a ackwad linkage aed meaue of alue-added emodied in electonic expot, would include alue added in intemediate input fom all othe ecto/countie (uch a gla fom count, ue fom count, tanpotation and deign fom the home count) ued to poduce go electonic expot, ut exclude alue-added contiution fom the ouce count electonic ecto to it go expot of othe ecto. 7

8 Wh VX atio i not well ehaed at ecto and ilateal leel? Diect alue-added expot at the ecto leel ae the ame fo oth alueadded expot meaue, ut indiect alue-added expot at the ecto leel ae often e diffeent etween thee two meaue. Indiect alue-added expot in the fowad-linkage-aed meaue ae the ecto alue-added emodied in othe ecto go expot, which ha no elation to the go expot fom that ecto. Theefoe, VX atio at the ecto leel i not meaningful, ince it denominato (ecto go expot) doe not include the indiect alue-added expot to othe ecto. It i common in the data fo ome ecto with e little o no go expot, ut thei poduct ae ued othe dometic indutie a intemediate input, and thu the can hae a lage amount of indiect alue-added expot though othe ecto. In uch cae, the VX atio will ecome e lage o infinite. Similal, at the ilateal leel, due to indiect alue-added tade ia thid countie, two countie can hae a lage olume of alue-added tade een the hae little o no go tade. 8

9 Wh VX atio mi impotant infomation of co count poduction haing? count expot of alue-added i malle than it go expot due to: a) the ue of impoted input to poduce expot; ) a pat of it DV in expot ma etun home afte eing poceed aoad; c) Doule counting due to two wa intemediate good tade. Two countie can hae imila alue added to go expot atio ut e diffeent tuctue of (a), () and (c) due to each count diffeent poition and paticipation in GVC. Example 9

10 Shotcoming of Exiting Meaue Meaue of tade in alue-added and meaue of etical pecialization ae not equal to each othe ut ae often ued intechangeal in the liteatue. Exiting meaue all popoed a tand-alone indicato. No common famewok that poide a unified wa to account and illutate thei elationhip. ll meaue popoed o fa cannot identif all component in go expot. Man tudie ignoe doule counted component onl focuing on tade in alue-added. To undetand hotcoming of TiV meaue in exiting liteatue ette, we need to undetand Leontief inight and it limitation.

11 What i Leontief inight ll the etimation method ued in ecent effot to meaue tade in alue-added ae ooted in Leontief (936). When $ expot i poduced, a fit ound of alue-added i geneated: Diect dometic alue-added induced the $ expot. To poduce that expot, intemediate input hae to e ued. The poduction of thee intemediate input alo geneate alue-added. Thi i the indiect dometic alue added induced the $ expot. Such a poce to geneate indiect alue-added can e taced thoughout the econom, a intemediate input ae ued to poduce othe intemediate input. The total dometic alue-added induced the $ expot i equal to the um of diect and all indiect dometic alue-added geneated fom the $ expot poduction poce. DV V V VV... V ( I 3...) V ( I ) V

12 V V V V u u Diect Dometic Value added Coefficient V c j u[ I a c j x c j N ] c c a a ( c, j,,..., N ) i ij = intemediate input hae fom oth countie N i ij Define Vˆ a a N N diagonal matix with each count diect alue-added coefficient ecto along the diagonal; Define a N N final demand matix with each count total final demand ecto along the diagonal;

13 Decompoition of alue-added and final good poduction aed on Leontief inight () 3 V V V X VT V V V X VT V ˆ Decompoe GDP ecto; fowad linkage aed Decompoe final good V ouce; ackwad Linkage aed When N=

14 VT V X V V Decompoition of alue-added and final good poduction aed on Leontief inight () Sum up the matix along the ow, account how each count' dometic alue-added oiginated in a paticula ecto i ued the ecto and all it down team countie/ecto. Sum up the matix along the column, gie the count/ecto ouce of alue-added in each count' final demand, account all upteam countie/ecto alue-added contiution to a pecific count/ecto final good output. Thu, uppl ide pepectie (um aco column) decompoe how each count' GDP indut ae ued, diectl o indiectl to atif dometic o foeign final demand, while the ue ide pepectie (um aco ow), decompoe a count/ecto' final good and eice into it oiginal count/ecto ouce. 4

15 pplication of Leontief inight in tade in alue-added and GVC decompoition liteatue Decompoe final good to it count/ecto alue-added ouce aed on Leontief inight (ackwad linkage, um matix aco ow). GVC income: Value-added countie contiute to the poduction of final manufactuing good (Timme et al, 3); Shae of foeign alue-added in total alue of final poduct (Lo, Timme, and Vie, 4) Decompoe GDP indut to whee and how it i ued aed on Leontief inight (fowad looking linkage, um matix Vˆ aco column). Vˆ Johnon and Noguea () onl meaued ecto alue-added aoed foeign countie, pat of GDP indut tatitic. 5

16 Limitation of Leontief inight Etimating alue-added expot can e accomplihed diectl appling the oiginal Leontief inight. It doe not equie the decompoition of intemediate tade flow. Howee, dicoeing the tuctue of co count poduction haing and GVC elated infomation fom tade tatitic equie finding a wa to decompoe intemediate tade into alueadded and doule-counted pat, which cannot e achieed impl appling Leontief inight; ecaue go intemediate tade flow hae to e oled fit fom the inte-count input-output (ICIO) model fo an gien leel of final demand. In Wang et al. (3), we find a wa to ole thi endogeneit iue categoiing all ilateal intemediate tade flow into majo final demand goup accoding to thei final detination of aoption. Thi ke technical tep conet go output (and go expot) uuall endogenou aiale in tandad ICIO model to exogenou aiale in the go tade accounting famewok we popoed. 6

17 VT V DV E V V X V V I ) V X V V V V E VT V V X ( X Decompoe Go Expot aed on ut eond Leontief inight E X () X x x V The ke i decompoe V X () (3) X a a a a x x a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a (4) 7

18 Go ilateal intemediate tade etween Count and Expoting Count S Final Good conumed in S Intemediate expot Re-expot to S X * t G k k k* Diect Impoting Count R t t * Final Good conumed in R t Re-expot to T G t, tt* t t Thid Count T Final Good conumed in T G t, t tt Intemediate tade flow Dometic final good flow Final tade flow

19 Go Expot ccounting uilding on the decompoition of go ilateal intemediate tade accoding to thei final detination of aoption, we decompoe go tade flow at an leel of diaggegation into 6 alue-added and doule-counted component. Conceptuall, thee 6 component can e gouped into fou ucket: Dometic alue-added aoed aoad (DV); Dometic alue added that i initiall expoted ut final etuned and conumed home ia impot fom othe countie (RDV); It i not pat of a count' expot of alue-added, ut account fo pat of the count' GDP; Foeign alue added ued in the poduction expot (FV); Doule counted tem due to intemediate good eing taded ack and foth that co ode multiple time (PDC). Thee intemediate tade tanaction ae not pat of an count GDP o final demand, imila to dometic inte-indut tanaction that ue one tpe of intemediate input to poduce anothe. Since all co-count tade tanaction ae ecoded each count cutom, the how up in the official tade tatitic. Make them diffeent fom dometic intemediate input tanaction, which ae deducted fom total go output when official GDP indut tatitic ae calculated. 9

20 Go Tade ccounting: Concept () Go expot (good and eice) (E) ()+()+(3) Dometic alueadded aoed aoad (DV) (4) Dometic alue- dded fit expoted then etuned home (RDV) (6)+(7) Foeign alueadded (FV) (5)+(8) Pue doule counted tem (PDC) () Final good and eice Expot (DV_FIN) () Intemediate expot aoed diect impote (DV_INT) (3) Intemediate ent to fit impote and then e-expoted to thid count (DV_INT_REX ) (5) Pue doule counting fom dometic ouce (DDC) (6) Foeign alue added contained in final expot (FV_FIN) (7) Foeign alue added contained in intemediate expot (FV_INT) (8) Pue doule counting fom foeign ouce (FDC) Dometic Content (DC, um () though (5)) Vetical Specialization (VS) E can e at count/ecto, count aggegate, ilateal /ecto o ilateal aggegate; oth DV and RDV ae aed on ackwad linkage

21 Majo naltical Reult Regading to Summa Meaue of Facto Content of Tade and Doule Counting In a wold of thee o moe countie, dometic alue-added in expot that i aoed aoad (DV), fowad-linkage-aed alue-added expot (VX_F), and ackwad-linkage-aed alue-added expot (VX_), ae, in geneal, not equal to each othe at the ilateal/ecto leel. Thee alue-added tade meaue ae onl equal at the count aggegate leel. VX_F and VX_ ae equal at the ilateal aggegate leel, while DV and VX_ ae the ame at the count/ecto leel. DV at the ecto leel i alwa le than o equal to the ecto-leel go ilateal expot. Theefoe, the atio of dometic alue-added aoed aoad to go expot ha an uppe ound of one at an leel of diaggegation a long a go expot ae poitie. VX_ at the ecto leel i alwa le than o equal to the count ectoleel go expot. Theefoe, the atio of VX_ to go expot ha an uppe ound of one at the count/ecto leel when go expot ae poitie. VX_F i alwa le than o equal to ecto-leel alue-added poduction. Theefoe, the atio of VX_F to GDP ecto ha an uppe ound of one.

22 ea US-China tade in Electical and Optical Equipment (WIOD C4) Total go expot DV_Fin DV_INT DV_Intex RDV FV fom patne FV fom thid countie China expot to the United State 995,998 5,947, , ,68 33,399 6,39 4, ,665 6,33 3,485 76,94 74,43 39,8 9,344,96 5,58 4,95 5,946 US expot to China 995 3,4,97, ,4 3,64 5,7 3,59,777 3,5,6 35,59 9,377,95 6,74,47 78,44,53 Tade alance 995-7,598-4, , ,6-3,35 -,57-465,436-3,434-5,8 -,69-4,865-64,666-7,66 -,6,74-4,863-38,87-4,433 PDC

23 US-China tade in Electical and Optical Equipment (WIOD C4) ea Total Exp DV DV _Fin DV_ INT DV _Intex RDV FV_ patne FV_ othe PDC VX _F VX _ China expot to the United State US expot to China

24 Decompoing DV in Expot - Textile and Poduct (WIOD ecto 4) % India-Texitle 88 % US-Texitle 88 9% 8% 7% 6% % 8% 7% 6% % 8 5% 8 4% 78 4% 78 3% % 76 3% % 76 % 74 % 74 % 7 % 7 DV_FIN DV_INT DV_INTex RDV_FIN RDV_INT DV_total DV_FIN DV_INT DV_INTex RDV_FIN RDV_INT DV_total 4

25 Decompoing DV in expot - Electical and optical equipment (WIOD ecto4) % Mexico-Electic & optical equipment % US-Electic & optical equipment 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% % 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% % 3 % 3 % % % % DV_FIN DV_INT DV_INTex RDV_FIN RDV_INT DV_total DV_FIN DV_INT DV_INTex RDV_FIN RDV_INT DV_total 5

26 eage VS Stuctue of Wold Manufactuing Indutie, 995- VS hae % of VS ea in go FV FV FDC expot _FIN _INT

27 VS Stuctue of Electic and Optical Equipment Expot fo elected ian Economie % 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% % % % China % 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% % % % Indoneia % 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% % % % FDC FVi FVf VS Chinee Taipei % 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% % % % FDC FVi FVf VS India 7

28 RC Index hould take into account oth dometic and intenational poduction haing Taditional RC ignoe two impotant fact: count-ecto go expot include foeign alueadded and doule counted tem due to ack and foth intemediate good tade. a count-ecto alue added ma e expoted indiectl ia the count expot in othe ecto. conceptuall coect meaue of compaatie adantage need to exclude foeign-oiginated alue added and pue doule counted tem ut include indiect expot of a ecto alue added though othe ecto of the expoting count. 8

29 RC indexe fo electic and optical equipment expot China US RC_ Go RC_Value dded RC_ Go RC_Value dded 9

30 RC indexe fo uine eice expot Geman India RC_ Go RC_Value dded RC_ Go RC_Value dded 3

31 Concluion Ou accounting method identifie expot of dometic alue added; dometic alue-added expoted fit ut etun home; foeign alueadded ued in poduction of expot; and doule counted item aiing fom two wa intemediate good tade. Thee conceptuall diffeent component um up to % of official go expot tatitic at an leel of diaggegation. identifing which pat of the official data ae doule counted and the ouce of the doule counting, we poide an effectie wa to coectl intepet official tade tatitic in alue-added tem and poide an index to quantitatiel meaue what and how much i doule counted fo each ilateal/ecto tade flow. The tuctual infomation of dometic alue-added and doule counting in addition to thei total um can e ued to ealuate a count/ecto poition and paticipation in gloal poduction chain. 3

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