Table of Contents. Mobile Payments in the App Store Economy

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1 Mobi l epa yment si nt he AppSt or eec onomy: Wi nni ngst r at egi esf or Tel c os

2 Table of Contents 1. Executive Summary The Evolving Mobile Payments Market Trend Analysis The Rise of the OTT Storefronts... 3 Figure 1: App Downloads to Smartphones, Featurephones & Tablets, 2012, by Selected Storefront (55.9 billion downloads) Mobile Remote Transactions are Becoming Larger and More Frequent as MNOs Pursue the Mobile Wallet Opportunity Mobile Payments Replacing Cash in Developing Economies... 5 Figure 2: Percentage of Unbanked Adults, Selected Markets, 2012 (%)... 6 Figure 3: Percentage Banked Adults vs Mobile Penetration, Selected Markets, 2012 (%)... 7 Figure 4: Smartphones as Percentage of All Handsets, 2012 & 2017, Selected Markets The Operator Perspective ARPUs are Decreasing... 9 Figure 5: Base Line Analysis of Global Mobile Subscriber Growth, ARPU and Operator-Billed Service Revenues Leveraging MNO Assets: Direct Carrier Billing and Personalisation Opportunities High Conversion Rates Customer Knowledge and Big Data App Curation and Personalised App Discovery A New Paying Audience Table 1: OTT Storefront, Operator Billing Availability, December Operators are increasing price caps and reducing interchange rates Beyond the Content Play: Direct Carrier Billing in the Real World Figure 6: The Next Wave: Beyond the Content Play Carrier Billing in the Real World Direct Carrier Billing in the Mobile Ticketing Space The Final Frontier: Direct Carrier Billing, Physical Goods Purchases and the Need for Regulatory Change Looking Forward: Optimal Real World Uses for Direct Carrier Billing Strategic Recommendations for Operators Leveraging the Billing Relationship Working with Leading App Stores Leveraging Big Data Increase Maximum Price Points Working with Regulators Educating End Users and Merchants Offer Financial Services Amdocs Profile Amdocs Mobile Payments Figure 7: Amdocs Mobile Payments: Functional Overview Page 1

3 Mobile Payments in the App Store Economy: Winning Strategies for Telcos 1. Executive Summary From being the primary source of content, MNO storefronts/portals now account for an estimated 6-7% of all app downloads, and these are overwhelming in emerging markets with a relatively low prevalence of smartphones. Furthermore, this share will be further eroded in the coming months and years. There is an ever more pressing need for operators to establish new revenue streams to augment their historic incomes and stave off the threat (ever more pronounced) that in the longer term costs could overhaul revenues. MNOs can redress the balance by leveraging assets such as Direct Carrier Billing and by exploring content personalisation opportunities. In this context, it should be observed that Google Play, Nokia Store, Blackberry App World and Windows Phone Store all of which offer Direct Carrier Billing in a number of markets - accounted for approximately 48% of all app downloads in Furthermore, as Google s Android and Windows Phone OS gains market share and the Windows Phone store consequently gains tractions this combined percentage is likely to rise significantly in the medium term. Indeed, we envisage that Google Play s share will rise from 34% in 2012 to 47% by 2017, with the Windows Phone Store increasing from less than 0.1% in 2012 to more than 9% in Direct Carrier Billing provides a billing option to younger demographics and the prepaid sector. Meanwhile, aggregated data from leading OTT storefronts utilising Direct Carrier Billing demonstrates a marked uplift in customer conversion versus credit card transactions and a sharp increase in average carrier revenues derived from apps. There is significant opportunity for Direct Carrier Billing to be utilise for real world purchases in the lower value, higher volume area, both in terms of ad hoc purchases (e.g. books, flowers) and more regular purchases (e.g. petrol). Likewise, Direct Carrier Billing can be employed for ticket payments. By adding ticketing applications and services to a mobile phone a customer could be less likely to replace their mobile operator with a new one; customer loyalty should increase as a result of mobile payments. The mobile device offers a near ubiquitous channel to reach large numbers of unbanked consumers. Far more people in countries that are under-banked will have a mobile account with a Network Page 2

4 Operator than will have used an ATM or visited a bank branch. This presents a unique opportunity to deliver new services into this vast mobile customer base. 2. The Evolving Mobile Payments Market Trend Analysis Over the past five years, the mobile marketplace has undergone a quite dramatic evolution. The role of the handset has transitioned from an enabler of voice and text communications to an essential multipurpose tool, one on which the consumer can browse the Internet, watch video content and pay for goods and services (both remotely and, increasingly, at the physical point of sale). The payment of goods and services via the mobile is hardly a new concept: what has changed (and dramatically expanded) are the billing mechanisms on offer to the consumer, and the nature of those goods and services which can be purchased. A number of factors have combined to shape this new marketplace: the mass adoption of consumer smartphones in tandem with large data bundles; the emergence of a consumer tablet market; the launch of several high-profile application storefronts followed by the mass adoption of a variety of application categories far beyond the traditional game. The upshot has been the development of a mobile payments market which reached $340 billion in 2012 and is expected to reach $1.3 trillion annually by It is worth highlighting the key trends which are at the heart of this transition, their implications for mobile payments and what they mean for network operators. 2.1 The Rise of the OTT Storefronts The mobile payments market and its constituent entities has evolved dramatically in the past decade. From a market comprised almost exclusively of on-portal ringtone and logo sales, we now have a digital market driven by sales of rich media content through OTT app storefronts: in 2012, Apple s App Store and the Android Market (now Google Play) accounted for nearly 70% of global app downloads (see Figure 1 below). Figure 1: App Downloads to Smartphones, Featurephones & Tablets, 2012, by Selected Storefront (55.9 billion downloads) 10% 6% 16% 34% Apple App Store Google Play Nokia Store Operator Portals 34% Other Storefronts Source: Juniper Research Page 3

5 It is worth observing that this growth has been facilitated by the advent of the consumer smartphone: the installed base of such devices has grown from 260 million in 2008 to more than 1 billion in Furthermore, given Android s increasing dominance of the smartphone OS space, we believe that Google Play s share of app downloads will increase from 34% in 2012 to 47% by At the same time, it is also worth observing that as Windows 8 gains traction as a smartphone OS in the medium term following Nokia s decision to adopt Microsoft s OS for its own devices, then the Windows Store also has the potential in the medium term to acquire a significant share of the apps market, further eroding the share of the operator portals. We would estimate that this share will increase from less than 0.1% in 2012 to more than 9% by At the same time, the traditional paid app payment mechanism has been complemented by a variety of alternatives (freemium, ad-supported, search etc.) while the emergence of in-app billing mechanisms for digital content offers content providers further opportunities to monetise their content post the initial download. Furthermore, the mass adoption of consumer smartphones has in turn resulted in a significant number of end users possessing devices with user interfaces which are increasingly conducive to browsing for and purchasing physical goods. Implications for Network Operators: with the emergence of the app-centric environment, the MNOs have seen their role as the core gatekeepers to content eroded. From being the primary source of content, MNO storefronts/portals now account for an estimated 6-7% of all app downloads, and these are overwhelming in emerging markets with a relatively low prevalence of smartphones. Furthermore, this share will be further eroded in the coming months and years. Given the lack of MNO scale relative to the leading storefronts, few developers are willing to develop content exclusively for such portals. Indeed, many MNOs have recognised that this model is no longer viable, and are jettisoning the standalone storefront: Verizon Wireless became the latest high-profile MNO to adopt this policy when it announced that it would be closing its VCAST store in January Thus, with consumers rarely visiting those storefronts, MNOs must seek alternative means of monetising content. 2.2 Mobile Remote Transactions are Becoming Larger and More Frequent as MNOs Pursue the Mobile Wallet Opportunity Data from mobile payment schemes informs us that content providers are experiencing uplift in transaction size. There are a number of reasons behind this. First is that carriers are now enabling higher price points for digital purchases. The second is that the introduction of payment mechanisms such as Direct Carrier Billing enabling continuous pricing rather than discrete price points as with Premium SMS (PSMS) becomes more attractive from a developer/merchant perspective, allowing them to offer a price of their own choosing rather than be obliged to select a best fit price. An example of this occurs within Google Play, which offers direct carrier billing in the UK: for the 100 leading paid applications as of January 2013, there was a range of 57 different prices. Conversely, in Apple s App Store in the US, apps retailed at just 7 discrete price points ($0.99, $1.99, $2.99, $3.99, $4.99, $5.99 and $6.99). (It should be observed that Apple allows a range of price points up to $999.99, but that the highest price point of any app within the top 100 was $6.99.) At the same time, it is worth pointing out that part of this trend is attributable to a wider willingness to pay for content itself in large part engendered by the richer content (and greater variety of content) produced in the wake of the app explosion. It is also worth observing that such payments are becoming more frequent in the physical goods arena, with retailers of physical goods also experiencing uplift in basket size (average transaction size) as a result of replacing cash with a mobile payment method. This itself is a direct result of increased consumer confidence in, and willingness to engage with, the mobile device as both a content browsing and payment mechanism. The best exemplar here is perhaps ebay: at the Mobile World Congress in Barcelona in February 2012, CEO John Donahue said that 3,500 cars were now being sold per week via ebay s mobile channels. While the case studies and profiles within this report provide individual examples of mobile s success in this field, it is worth grouping several other key examples together collectively to demonstrate this: Page 4

6 For the pizza takeaway company Domino s (UK), mobile accounted for 20% of online checkouts in 2012; in the US, by November 2012 the Domino s ordering app for ios and Android had been downloaded nearly 3.5 million times, with mobile accounting for 7% of all Domino s sales UK supermarket Asda saw 16% of online orders conducted via the mobile by Q UK retailer Argos saw 7% of all its orders conducted via the mobile in the six months ended September 2012 In Japan, the leading online retailer Rakuten is seeing 25% of transactions originate on the mobile device Globally, PayPal Mobile handled $14 billion in mobile transactions in 2012, up from $4 billion in 2011 Building on this increased consumer desire to use the mobile device as a purchasing mechanism, not merely remotely, but also for proximity payments, various groups of networks operators have formed consortia with the aim of establishing mobile wallet solutions which as well as permitting consumers to store coupons and loyalty cards on-device also enable payment via NFC (Near Field Communications). Key examples here include ISIS (an MNO-led consortium of AT&T, T-Mobile US and Verizon, which began trialling in Austin, Texas and Salt Lake City, Utah in October 2012) and the Cityzi project in Nice, France where MNOs, banks and transport operators share a common NFC infrastructure. Implications for Network Operators: While MNOs have lost out to OTT players as content retailers, the increasing consumer desire to purchase digital content still affords them a significant opportunity to retain a critical role in the value chain. For example, the ease of use and greater flexibility of carrier billing solutions relative to alternatives make them more attractive to developers/merchants. Furthermore, from a storefront perspective, the addition of a straightforward, few-click payment mechanism in the form of carrier billing makes it more likely that the end user will end up making the transaction. However, while trials have demonstrated extremely positive user responses to NFC, we would argue that given the scale of the marketing/educational challenge facing MNOs and other NFC stakeholders Direct Carrier Billing represents a greater monetisation option in the foreseeable future. Thus, while operators are keen to explore the opportunities offered by NFC, we would argue that monetisation here is very much a longer term prospect. NFC s prospects received a severe setback in September 2012 when Apple opted not to include an NFC chipset within the iphone 5. This is likely to have a knock-on effect amongst retailers, who will perceive it as a lack of confidence in the technology. This, allied to their (correct) perception that there will be significantly fewer NFC-enabled handsets in the marketplace will make it far less likely that they themselves will invest in NFC-enabled POS terminals. Furthermore, despite the efforts of MNOs and their partners, consumer awareness of NFC remains low. The absence of Apple s marketing (and its handsets) is a major blow in this regard. Apple s decision in turn means that fewer players will focus on NFC as a priority in the short term, meaning still less NFC marketing, implying lower levels of NFC awareness amongst consumers. 2.3 Mobile Payments Replacing Cash in Developing Economies Cash has been king for centuries and it will remain an important method of payment for many years to come, especially in developing countries. However, Juniper Research has found that mobile payments are gaining in popularity in developing countries where steps are being made to develop mobile-based economies. Furthermore, several mobile remittance services have enjoyed quite remarkable levels of success in recent years. By September 2012, a total of 15.2 million users of Kenya s Safaricom 79% of its total user base used its M-PESA money transfer service; by September 2012, some $570 million (KES80 billion) per month was being transacted between Safaricom customers, equivalent to 31% of Kenya s GDP; the service also accounts for 18% of all Safaricom s revenues. M-PESA has also been deployed in Tanzania, where it Page 5

7 has a registered user base of 4.4 million (48% of Vodacom s subscriber base in the country) and is seeing daily transaction levels of $21.5 million (TZS35 billion). The success of M-PESA has in turn spawned numerous alternative services across sub-saharan Africa and in parts of developing Asia and the Indian Subcontinent. Other popular services include Smart Money in the Philippines (with approximately 10 million users as of late-2012), T-Cash in Indonesia (8.2 million users) and MTN Mobile Money in Uganda (3 million users). The beauty of such solutions is that they remove the risk of cash theft from an agent and the consumer, while at the same time making the transfer service far more convenient for its participants. Critically, it also brings mbanking to the unbanked masses: globally, approximately 2.5 billion are unbanked (more than 90% of whom live in low or middle-income countries) and up to a further 3 billion are under-banked. The following chart demonstrates the size of the opportunity from unbanked adults: Figure 2: Percentage of Unbanked Adults, Selected Markets, 2012 (%) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Source: World Bank, Juniper Research According to the World Bank, more than 80 countries have an unbanked penetration rate amongst adults higher than 50%; in 38 countries, the rate is in excess of 80%. However, the size of the mobile opportunity becomes clear when you compare the banked adult population with mobile penetration. Page 6

8 Figure 3: Percentage Banked Adults vs Mobile Penetration, Selected Markets, 2012 (%) 180% 160% 140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Banked Adults (%) Mobile Penetration (%) Source: Juniper Research In each case, mobile penetration far exceeds the banked percentage. Indeed, in many markets with a high unbanked population, mobile penetration is already well in excess in 75%. Hence, the mobile device offers a near ubiquitous channel to reach large numbers of unbanked consumers. The reality is that far more people in countries that are under-banked will have a mobile account with a Network Operator than will have used an ATM or visited a bank branch. This presents a unique opportunity to deliver new services into this vast mobile customer base. To put it another way: 86% of the population in Cambodia now has access to a mobile device; 4% of the adult population has a bank account. Furthermore, as far as person-to-person transactions are concerned, these transactions take seconds to complete and funds are transferred almost instantaneously: in India, when such transactions are conducted via a bank, they may take a couple of hours to complete, and the end user may not receive the funds for several days. The mobile channel enables the development of financial services in a way that is not dependent on the existing financial services infrastructure. Not least of the relevant factors is the cost (time as well as money) of establishing physical banking infrastructure in developing countries. As a service distribution network, the mobile infrastructure is already deployed very widely in developing countries and it is only going to increase in size and spread in future. Mobile transactions also cost far less to deliver than either servicing customers at a bank branch or installing ATMs. In short, the operator has an existing billing relationship with the end user; it has existing distribution and collection channels; it has a means of promoting and marketing its services. Furthermore, the growing adoption of money transfer services leads to a greater familiarity with and confidence in mobile financial services, together with a greater penetration of mobile wallets. Ultimately, increased service usage in the mobile money transfer sector should additionally act as a catalyst for growth in related sectors such as remote payments for both digital and physical goods as well as microsavings and micro-loans. Indeed, in this regards the growing penetration of smartphones - and, critically, smarter featurephones with touchscreen interfaces which provide a more intuitive browsing experience - within developing economies acts as a related driver. Additionally, Juniper Research believes that a transition towards an icon-led touchscreen interface would be of significant benefit in markets where literacy levels were low, greatly facilitating ease of service use. As the penetration of such devices increases, so too does the opportunity in many cases the first opportunity to participate in a digital economy through the acquisition of paid content. Page 7

9 Figure 4: Smartphones as Percentage of All Handsets, 2012 & 2017, Selected Markets 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Source: Juniper Research Implications for Network Operators: The increasing penetration of smartphones within developing markets, allied to the inherent advantages of the MNOs with regard to existing customer relationships and local infrastructure, represent a clear opportunity. The existing billing relationship with the end user, taken together with significant distribution channels, offers the potential not merely to monetise digital content, but to expand into a wider range of mcommerce and mobile money services. Furthermore, given the fact that national regulations governing mobile s role in the mcommerce are in their infancy, we would stress the need for operators to engage with regulatory authorities both to demonstrate the positive impact of mobile on financial inclusion and to facilitate the development of a regulatory environment which is conducive to the development of mcommerce services. 3. The Operator Perspective MNOs, for so long the gatekeepers to the customer device, have seen their traditional role eroded by Internet penetration and a host of over-the-top players such as Google and Apple. Critically, this has occurred at a point where mobile penetration amongst end users is approaching saturation point, while competitive pricing and regulatory strictures have severely impacted upon voice revenues. Furthermore, the increased usage of non-voice services and adoption of mobile broadband has failed to offset the declines in voice ARPU. The upshot is that a combination of falling overall ARPU and low growth in the user base has translated into operator-billed revenues that are either plateauing or are in decline. Meanwhile, a flattening revenue stream is not the only fundamental issue. The surge in data usage unleashed by the consumer smartphone boom has obliged the MNOs to rethink their flat rate data strategies: it calls into question the capacity of the networks to cope with the increased data load, and indeed the extent to which the backhaul costs of the traffic can be successfully absorbed. Thus, with MNOs obliged to build out next generation networks, upgrade existing infrastructure and find other means (e.g. Wi-Fi offload) to cope with the increased data load, the problem of flattening revenues is compounded with one of capex on networks and spectrum that continues to rise. When these are allied to greater operating expenditures due not only to the increase in traffic but to a host of other Page 8

10 factors, not least rising energy costs it is clear that MNOs cannot continue to rely on traditional revenue streams, and the strategies that underpin them, to thrive in the longer term. 3.1 ARPUs are Decreasing While subscriber growth rates are slowing, operator-billed ARPU (Average Revenue per User) levels are continuing to decline. These declines are attributable to a number of key factors: Competitive pricing furthermore, in a recessionary economic climate, competitive pricing is likely to be provided with additional urgency as consumers shop around for better deals. Increased competition within markets launch of newly licensed operators and/or liberalisation to permit MVNOs (mobile virtual network operators). Regulatory intervention many national regulators have imposed caps, or are planning to impose caps, on both retail and wholesale voice and data charges, and on mobile termination rates. For example, in the Philippines, the country s three MNOs were ordered by the National Telecommunications Commission to cut SMS rates by 20% in November 2012, while in May 2012, the European Commission approved the adoption of new roaming regulations (which became effective from July 2012), forcing mobile operators in the EU to adopt the approved retail caps. Greater preponderance of lower value prepaid users in the subscriber mix this factor has tended to be particularly prevalent in developing/emerging markets where, as operators roll out networks in remote rural areas, the overwhelming majority of net additions are low usage prepaid customers. In many markets, prepaid users now account for more than 90% of consumers: in India, the Philippines and Indonesia, that proportion has reached 95%, 96% and 97% respectively. As such users form an ever greater proportion of the overall user base, so blended ARPU levels can drop sharply. Downsizing - in selected markets, fallout from the economic downturn and job cuts have led to many customers downsizing their mobile contract and taking reduced minute bundles at lower prices. The upshot is that global ARPU levels have followed a downward trend over recent years. The decline at the regional level is exaggerated to a certain extent in selected cases because of the depreciation of local currency bundles against the dollar (e.g. in Latin America and Europe), but the implications are clear. Juniper Research believes that the trends exhibited in recent years are likely to continue: in pluralistic markets typically inhabited by at least three network operators and, increasingly, MVNO providers, competitive pricing will continue to negatively impact on overall ARPU, with any gains from increased data usage being more than offset by a reduction in voice ARPU. Indeed, it is conceivable that per minute pricing could be further impacted in developed markets as mobile VoIP offerings become more prevalent. The nature of the first part of the problem that MNOs face is illustrated by the base line analysis of forecasts for subscriber growth, ARPU development and operator-billed service revenues depicted in Figure 5. Page 9

11 Figure 5: Base Line Analysis of Global Mobile Subscriber Growth, ARPU and Operator-Billed Service Revenues Source: Juniper Research Using 2012 as our baseline, we can see that while MNO subscribers are expected to increase to 1.25x their 2012 value by 2017, over the same period global ARPU (already much reduced in recent years) is expected to fall to less than 87% of its 2012 value. The combination of these two factors means that there will be comparatively low growth in global operator-billed service revenues: indeed, in some markets, such revenues have already begun to fall and unless remedial measures are taken, will continue to do so. Hence, as margins diminish, and costs bases rise, there is an ever more pressing need for operators to establish new revenue streams to augment their historic incomes and stave off the threat (ever more pronounced) that in the longer term costs could overhaul revenues. 4. Leveraging MNO Assets: Direct Carrier Billing and Personalisation Opportunities How, then, can MNOs redress the balance? It is imperative for MNOs to maintain at least a foothold in the content play. The MNOs have several key assets that can aid them in this regard: their billing relationship with the customer, their familiarity with and big data on the customer that can be used for the personalisation and relevance of a digital/commerce offering, and their network (which, in addition to performing the role of carrying the content, can be leveraged both from a Quality of Service (QoS) perspective (e.g. for video content) and to determine the location of the end user. It should be observed that in this case the MNOs do not necessarily need to be the content providers, although they may be (e.g. AT&T Uverse): rather, they have the opportunity to leverage and monetise their assets with third-party content providers which can in turn benefit from their partner s assets. By leveraging the billing relationship, the MNO is in a position to extract additional value from the customer and also develop double-sided revenues through partnerships with players elsewhere in the value chain. Direct carrier billing is usually aimed at low-value micro-payments (but increasingly higher value transactions) and is offered to account customers as an alternative to a credit card. It is also offered as an alternative to credit and debit card payments for online purchases in some markets, typically with a one- Page 10

12 time SMS based authentication code. This has the advantage of convenience for users by adding the charge to the phone bill, and by removing the need to register a credit card on the site for what may be a onetime purchase. Typically, however, the transaction is much simpler than a PSMS payment and involves the following steps for users: The user discovers mobile content or services and chooses to pay with his/her mobile account (prepaid or postpaid) On some occasions, the user s device is identified over the mobile network; on others, he or she is asked to identify himself/herself using his/her mobile number (MSISDN) The merchant sends a request to charge the consumer s mobile account to the MNO s gateway (directly or through a merchant aggregator that connects him/her to multiple MNOs) The MNO checks the merchant s/aggregator s permission to charge, and checks the account (is it postpaid/prepaid, does it have sufficient balance, what are the spending limits, are third-party payments enabled etc) The user s mobile account is debited The merchant is notified of the successful charge The content is delivered to the user At a later date (typically several days or weeks later), the MNO settles the charges with the merchant or aggregator (who in turn settles with the merchant) The following paragraphs provide an overview of the main attractions of carrier billing, both for the MNOs themselves and potential partners. 4.1 High Conversion Rates Conversion rates are much higher than many other payment means, due to ease of use (few clicks for a purchase as opposed to keying lengthy credit card details). For example, the Google Play transactions Amdocs processed on carrier billing in 2012 in the US grew by 3x in comparison with At the same time, it also prompted an increase in average transaction value, up by 33% y-o-y to $4.10. Meanwhile, at 2012 Mobile World Congress event in Barcelona, Nokia CEO Stephen Elop stated that in cases where Nokia teamed with mobile operators to offer carrier billing, consumers were 5x more likely to complete an app store purchase than if the app store only offered credit card purchasing. Furthermore, according to RIM, carrier billing services have proven to drive significant value for the whole mobile ecosystem, including carriers, developers, content providers, and customers. Aggregated data indicates that customers propensity to purchase apps on BlackBerry App World increases when carrier billing is offered, with an average of 75% of gross sales transacted through the MNO and average carrier revenues derived from apps increased between 100%-300% after launch. 4.2 Customer Knowledge and Big Data The MNO has at its disposal a wealth of consumer data. At the most fundamental level, it knows who he or she is, where he or she lives and how he or she pays. With the addition of analytics of the BSS (Business Support Systems) data, the operator can add far more value: it can ascertain what that customer downloads, when those downloads take place, what online or offline sites he or she visits, how long those visits take and so on. This is beneficial both from the perspective of the MNO allowing it to personalise content discovery based on analysis of ongoing individual consumer behaviour patterns but for third parties: to take just one example, it will be increasingly valuable for advertisers, as they migrate spend to digital while transitioning from above-the-line (reach) focused strategies to below-the-line (engagement) strategies, to be able to deliver advertising which is targeted and relevant to the end user. Likewise, such information can be extremely valuable to retailers, e.g. for the delivery of personalised coupons to consumers. Page 11

13 App Curation and Personalised App Discovery For a developer, the sheer scale of available apps (both Apple s App Store and Google Play now have more than 800,000 apps on offer) presents a significant problem: discovery. At the same time, the end user wishes to be presented with content that is relevant. Hence the emergence of a host of clients offering personalised app discovery, ranging from Appsfire to Yahoo! AppSpot, while app stores such as Google Play have also launched personalised app recommendations. For their part, several MNOs (e.g. Telenor) have now moved towards the shelf in store approach offering localised content on the Google Play store. The next step in this evolutionary process is the ability to offer personalised content based on the user s profile and tastes. At the same time, social media ranging from Facebook and Twitter on the one hand to startups such as Hubbl and AppGrooves are seeking to introduce social elements to app discovery. While curation is designed with the end user, rather than the developer, in mind, the emergence of personalised discovery can turn increases the monetisation opportunities for developers, particularly if the consumers are presented with a wider range of payment options. 4.3 A New Paying Audience Direct carrier billing can enable payment amongst a far wider and diverse user base, both in developed and developing markets. In the latter case, bank account and credit card ownership is often extremely low; in the former, it provides a billing option to younger demographics and the prepaid sector. Furthermore, there is still some residual reluctance to input credit card details into the handset. This is particularly attractive from a third party storefront perspective. Hence Nokia s decision in 2010 to begin rolling out operator billing on the Nokia Store (formerly Ovi); the introduction of the option was critical in markets such as India (high prepay, low credit card ownership) in which Nokia is the dominant handset vendor. Google also first launched operator billing on Android devices to customers of AT&T and T-Mobile US in the same year, while the option has also since been introduced by Microsoft, RIM and Samsung amongst others. Indeed, the introduction by Microsoft of direct carrier billing on its Windows Phone Store in Indonesia for XL Axiata in December 2012 represented the first such deployment in developing APAC. The following table provides an indication of the scale of operator billing availability as of December 2012: Table 1: OTT Storefront, Operator Billing Availability, December 2012 Storefront Operators Markets Windows Phone Store Google Play Blackberry App World Nokia Store Source: Juniper Research It is worth observing that these four storefronts alone accounted for approximately 48% of all app downloads in Furthermore, as Google s Android and Windows Phone OS gains market share and the Windows Phone store consequently gains tractions this combined percentage is likely to rise significantly in the medium term. Increasingly, OTT storefronts are also offering in-app billing and subscriptions via operator billing. For example, Google enables developers and content providers to offer in-app purchases (such as additional levels in a game), as well as supporting one-off and recurring (subscription-based) purchases. Page 12

14 Both storefronts and MNOs can clearly benefit from the arrangement: the storefront in that it can reach demographics who either do not possess credit cards or are unwilling to give out card details online (a declining but not insignificant community), the operator in that it retains a role in the content value chain. Of the leading app stores, Apple is the only one which does not offer carrier billing. While the App Store represents an increasingly important revenue stream for Apple it had generated more than $10 billion in revenues by late 2012, of which Apple retained 30% - the company would have the potential to see a marked increase in revenues were it to enable app monetisation across a wider user base. This opportunity becomes ever larger as second-hand, older iphones are increasingly owned by a far wider demographic than their initial, more affluent owners: in short, into a demographic that includes a significant proportion of unbanked individuals. Hence, there is a strong case for Apple, too, to rethink its policy and embrace carrier billing. 4.4 Operators are increasing price caps and reducing interchange rates As we observed in section 2, there is a pronounced trend for operators to increase the maximum price point for carrier billing. For example, O2 UK s Charge to Mobile offering increased its carrier billing cap to 30 ($48) in late At the same time, the operator confirmed that it would be reducing its margin on carrier billing in a bid to stimulate uptake. Again, O2 UK is following in the footsteps of other MNOs as the industry recognises that the historic operator margins on content are no longer sustainable in the post-app Store environment. 5. Beyond the Content Play: Direct Carrier Billing in the Real World Taking this strategy one step further then means moving beyond allowing operator billing on specified storefronts to opening up the APIs to third parties across the industry, thereby allowing the introduction of direct carrier billing for a whole range of products and services, and not merely the goods sold on apps stores. The third parties can then handle transactions for services which have been approved for direct billing on a market-by-market basis. Figure 6: The Next Wave: Beyond the Content Play Carrier Billing in the Real World Source: Amdocs Page 13

15 5.1 Direct Carrier Billing in the Mobile Ticketing Space One area which offers strong monetisation (and customer retention) prospects to operators from a direct carrier billing perspective is mobile ticketing. For several years, mobile ticketing per se has been growing in popularity: Handy Parken, Telekom Austria s SMS mobile parking service, was launched in 2003 and now sells more than 1.5 million tickets per month In Sweden, 65% of bus tickets and 40% of subway tickets are now purchased via mobile: these are currently primarily delivered via SMS and direct carrier billing has now been enabled as an option In several major cities in Central & Eastern Europe there are mobile ticketing schemes for trams and buses which are well established and which see multiple millions of tickets sold annually. Examples include Prague, Warsaw, Bucharest, Bratislava, Zilina, Kosice and Tallinn SMS-based tickets are becoming increasing popular in emerging markets such as India, where the Airtel Mchek wallet allows redbus bus ticketing via SMS, and Tanzania, where SMS ticketing is enabled via Safari Yetu From an operator perspective, mobile ticketing is attractive not merely from the perspective of increased ARPU potential, but from reduced churn opportunities. It is an unwanted expense to lose a customer after a mobile operator has invested in the original acquisition of that customer. Churn creates two main problems to operators as it both reduces revenues whilst raising the cost of customer acquisition. Research has estimated that the cost of winning a new customer could be 12% of the total lifetime revenue a customer brings in operators are losing billions of dollars per year as a result of churn. By adding ticketing applications and services to a mobile phone a customer could be less likely to replace their mobile operator with a new one; customer loyalty should increase as a result of mobile payments. Likewise, the introduction of mobile ticketing has become increasingly attractive across the transport industries. The rail industry has to solve the problem of increasing numbers of travellers in the face of fixed physical facilities. In order to scale its infrastructure, more and more capacity has to be added for peak passenger traffic which in itself is expensive and is under-utilised for most of the day. Rail companies are now pushing to increase their revenue by converting station real estate into shopping malls and in this overall context, mobile ticketing has a very strong business case. The more tickets are purchased and delivered over the online and mobile channels, the less are the queues for paper tickets and the cost of ticket staff and accommodation reduces proportionately. For the bus companies, the major cost saving opportunities in moving to mobile ticketing comes more from the reduced cash carrying requirements and revenue protection than physical facility rationalisation. Furthermore, corporate social responsibility is an ever-increasing concern and paper tickets are perceived to be wasteful, particularly where the paper ticket has a magnetic strip embedded on it it is currently impossible to effectively recycle this form of ticket. Reduced use of paper additionally has knock-on benefits of not only reduced cost but also reduced printing. Although the primary mechanism for mobile ticketing is SMS (with some more recent focus on NFC), there are distinct opportunities for carrier billing here, and already some MNOs have facilitated its introduction. In Norway, TDC offers carrier billing for mobile ticketing and parking, while in Turkey the option was introduced in December 2012 by Turkcell for football match tickets. 5.2 The Final Frontier: Direct Carrier Billing, Physical Goods Purchases and the Need for Regulatory Change Retailers are not merely embracing the mobile device as a mechanism for D2C sales, but are increasingly positioning the device as a means of marrying their digital and physical assets: both in terms of driving footfall to their physical outlets and in terms of enhancing engagement with the consumer. Indeed, one can posit scenarios whereby every touchpoint in the retail lifecycle, from product discovery to product purchase is fulfilled via a mobile channel, whether remotely, through proximity technologies such as NFC, or a combination of both. Page 14

16 This then leads to the issue of carrier billing regulation. The services which are permitted to be monetised on carrier billing vary by region. For example, in Canada and the US, paying with carrier credits e.g. for dating subscriptions, or for virtual items on social media sites is permitted, but the system cannot be used for offline physical goods. Conversely, in-app billing via direct carrier billing is permitted in markets such as Belgium, South Korea and Taiwan. Furthermore, Canada requires the use of a PIN for authorisation. In many European markets (e.g. Denmark, Finland, Ireland), regulations for carrier billing are similar (or identical) to those which govern other mobile payment mechanisms such as PSMS; it should also be observed that in a number of markets regulations have yet to be drawn up which specifically cover carrier billing. Indeed, in certain cases it is possible that regulations may be more conducive to direct carrier billing than PSMS: one such is Indonesia, where a law was enacted in October 2011 prohibiting the use of PSMS as a billing mechanism, and which immediately led to a 95% fall in ringback tone sales. For the use cases for carrier billing to proceed beyond those of digital goods purchases, amendments to national regulations will almost certainly be required in many cases. Such regulatory change is already in progress in some countries: for example, in November 2012 the Industry Committee of Italy s Senate passed an amendment to a White Paper permitting the purchase of bus tickets via mobile handsets; the amendment specifically allowed the use of operator billing as a payment mechanism. Indeed, physical goods purchases via carrier billing are already facilitated in some markets, most notably Sweden, where 4T Sverige, a joint venture between Telia, Tele2, Telenor and 3 has formed WyWallet, which covers both NFC and carrier billing. Looking Forward: Optimal Real World Uses for Direct Carrier Billing Even allowing for the increase in price cap levels, it is clear that for most markets, caps will remain for the foreseeable future at the $40-50 level. However, even in developed markets, such price caps encompass the majority of purchases currently made on smartphones: Juniper Research has found that the average physical goods purchase on a smartphone in 2012 was approximately $35 in the US and $29 in Western Europe. Given that these averages are increasingly being bolstered by a number of regular higher-value transactions (e.g. the weekly grocery shop) allied to occasional high-value one-off purchases (jewelry, clothing and indeed cars!) it is clear that the bulk of transactions fall well within the sub-$50 pricing caps. Many MNOs also impose a per-month cap to avoid bill-shock (e.g. $100 per month and $20 per transaction). Thus, assuming regulatory permissions, there is significant opportunity for direct carrier billing in the lower value, higher volume area, both in terms of ad hoc purchases (e.g. books, flowers) and more regular purchases (e.g. petrol). 6. Strategic Recommendations for Operators Juniper Research would like to propose the following key recommendations for network operators: 6.1 Leveraging the Billing Relationship From an operator perspective, it is imperative that they leverage their billing relationship to enable Direct Carrier Billing on leading OTT app stores for the benefit of all players. For the MNOs, it represents a new revenue stream; for the storefronts, it opens a wider paying demographic and better conversion rates; for the developers, better monetisation of their content; for consumers, it represents a simple payment mechanism and for the unbanked the first opportunity to participate in the digital economy. Page 15

17 6.2 Working with Leading App Stores Given the benefits that accrue to storefronts and operators alike from the introduction of carrier billing, it is imperative that both parties publicise to publishers and developers the markets in which it is offered as a billing option, the type of content that can be so billed (e.g. apps, in-app payments, music, video, and other services), whether in-app billing is permitted and the terms and conditions of payment. 6.3 Leveraging Big Data Operators have the opportunity to leverage the wealth of information that emerges from consumer activity on both cellular and WiFi networks, enabling them not merely to gauge time-based traffic demands but to monetise that data in its own right. Thus, for example, data sets derived from this Big Data can be offered to brands and marketing agencies to enable campaign optimisation, or to enterprises and public service organisations to be used in areas such as traffic management or fraud protection. Furthermore, the analytics of BSS (Business Supports Systems) data from a KYC (Know Your Customer) perspective provides additional value. This will in turn require partnerships to be established with third party analytics providers. 6.4 Increase Maximum Price Points As consumers become more accustomed to paying for goods via the mobile (whether remotely or at point of sale), operators will benefit from increasing the maximum price point for such goods. However, we would caution that bill shock is (and will remain) an issue. To ameliorate the problem, better visibility of purchases (and control for end users) is required. 6.5 Working with Regulators Likewise, given the vagaries in national regulations pertaining to direct carrier billing, it is imperative for operators and billing partners to work with local regulators both to demonstrate the benefits of carrier billing from a consumer perspective, and to ensure that carrier billing regulations are displayed prominently upon the regulator website. 6.6 Educating End Users and Merchants Network operators (and indeed all stakeholders in the mobile payments space) need to emphasise to consumers the secure nature of mobile payments: significant educative effort is required to convince users because this is the first barrier that is mentioned by the general user base, particularly in developed markets. At the same time, security remains a significant concern amongst a proportion of merchants: engagement with and education of this sector is likewise required. 6.7 Offer Financial Services We have emphasised the point that mobile presents the opportunity for first-time financial inclusion (and access to the digital economy) in many developing markets. Network operators, with extensive local infrastructure, strong consumer awareness levels and an established billing relationship with end users, can fulfil this access through the provision of an array of mobile money and mcommerce services, including money transfer, prepaid top-up, bill payments, banking and micro-savings accounts. Furthermore, mobile payments are also increasing being adopted as a cash alternative in such markets. The avoidance of using cash has other advantages as well, including reduced risk of loss and theft, not to mention reduced cash handling for businesses. In most of the developed world economies cash is losing Page 16

18 out to electronic methods of payment. Banks and retailers themselves are keen to reduce the amount of cash that they handle, and the costs and risks associated with cash such as loss, theft and counting. Hence, given the strong penetration of mobile in developing markets (more than 75% in most markets), network operators in such markets should actively promote the use of the mobile in this regard. 7. Amdocs Profile Founded in 1982, Amdocs is listed on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol DOX. A global company with approximately 20,000 employees, Amdocs reported revenues of $3.25 billion (up 2.1% year-on-year) in fiscal 2012, with net income of $391.4 million (up 12.9%). A recognized market leader, Amdocs customer experience systems span BSS, OSS, network control and digital services solutions for multiple lines of business, including wireless, wireline, broadband, cable and satellite services. The company s products are complemented by a broad suite of services including business consulting, system integration, project delivery and managed services. Amdocs has been active in the mobile payments space for more than a decade, made 2 acquisitions of mobile payments companies Qpass in 2006 and MX Telecom (now part of OpenMarket) in and is the leading processor of mobile payments over carrier billing in North America and Latin America, and the leading processor of carrier billing over Google Play worldwide. Amdocs processes annually more than 250 million transactions with a value of more than $2 billion. 7.1 Amdocs Mobile Payments Amdocs Mobile Payments (AMP) is a cloud-based gateway solution for wireless service providers, enabling them to quickly monetize their subscribers mobile payment transactions at leading app stores (such as Google Play and Windows Phone Store), social networks, and large online merchants. Figure 7: Amdocs Mobile Payments: Functional Overview Source: Amdocs Amdocs enables leading service providers across the globe achieve the quickest time-to-market for OTT & App Store monetization. Working with the largest service providers worldwide, Amdocs is first to enable Direct Carrier Billing for leading app stores like Google Play and Windows Phone Store, and gets Page 17

19 first the latest API specifications for its large MNO customers. Amdocs offers scalable and reliable solutions that can process millions of transactions in real-time with guaranteed SLAs and implements best practices from its business across MNOs and aggregators. Since Amdocs serves 250+ service providers worldwide including, among others, AT&T, T-Mobile, MetroPCS, America Movil, and XL Axiata - Amdocs customers enjoy quicker and deeper integration between their BSS systems and the Mobile Payments gateway. A cloud-based solution, Amdocs Mobile Payments is offered to MNOs at attractive revenue-share or pertransaction business models and enables MNOs to sunset inefficient legacy systems. Amdocs Mobile Payments is provided as a service, always on its latest version, with new features deployed to the cloud with practically no down time. As a leader in carrier billing with 30 years of experience in this space, Amdocs provides end-to-end commerce solutions and services and acts as a single-point of reliability and accountability for its MNO customers. Page 18

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